Chris Mills recommended two ways to fire on Sepp Straka at East Lake. First, he likes Straka at +175 for a First-Round Top-10 because the no-cut format gives Straka four cracks at a blow-up, and history says one of those rounds will be low: Straka has posted 6-under or better in seven of his last 11 no-cut events. Second, he’s betting Straka +275 to top the Continental Europe trio of Viktor Hovland and Ludvig Aberg. Mills argues Straka’s 2025 resume—two wins and five additional top-15s—beats both rivals, while Hovland has been "hit-or-miss" and Aberg "still cannot close on Sundays." East Lake’s southeast bermuda layout rewards accuracy over distance, another Straka strength: he ranks 4th on Tour in fairways hit and gains 0.42 strokes per round putting on bermuda. Mills calls +275 "crazy value" for a player whose game fits the course and who routinely spikes low rounds.

Chris Mills said to take Harris English at –107 in the 72-hole head-to-head against Keegan Bradley at the Tour Championship. Mills watched English’s on-course “walk-and-talk” interview earlier in the week and came away convinced English is relaxed and "playing with house money" after climbing into the FedExCup top six. Mills likes that English has already locked up a trip to the 2026 Masters, so the only thing left is chasing the $18 million purse, freeing him to stay aggressive. He trusts English’s history at accuracy-centric East Lake (three straight finishes of T22 or better) and points out that Bradley’s irons have cooled, losing 0.4 strokes-gained approach per round over the last two playoff starts. Mills expects English’s steadier tee-to-green form (gaining in all four SG categories at Olympia Fields) to win the matchup by two or more shots.

Mills suggested pivoting from Scheffler’s +150 outright price to the Top-American market. By removing European threats like McIlroy, Aberg, Fleetwood and Hovland, Scheffler only has to beat the U.S. contingent, with the next shortest American being Henley at +1100. Mills recommends staking an extra unit there if you already like Scheffler to win, calling it ‘way more sense’ than the low outright.

Mills flagged Sepp Straka at +185 for a Round-1 top-ten, acknowledging the Austrian skipped last week for what he believes was a family matter, not an injury. Straka ‘likes to go low’ and is usually streaky out of the gate, so Mills feels the books are over-penalising him for the absence in a field this small.

Calling it an automatic click, Mills loves Russell Henley at +125 to finish Round 1 inside the top ten. Henley “always comes out fast,” carries strong course history at East Lake, and only needs to beat 20 players to cash. Mills even added that he sees Henley as a dark-horse outright, reinforcing why the +125 opening-day placement is, in his words, ‘a smash.’

Griffin was the third name Mills highlighted at +2500 for first-round leader. Mills argued the number is wildly generous when you only have 28 other golfers to clear, noting Griffin’s recent stretch of low opening rounds and saying the market is treating this like a 140-player Thursday when it clearly is not.

Mills lumped Cameron Young with Burns and Griffin as Round-1 bets that are ‘great form, great first-round scoring’ yet remain +2500 in a 29-man field. He stressed that Young’s explosive driver routinely gives him birdie looks early and that these odds are identical to full-field events, creating what he called ‘serious value’ for anyone chasing a first-round leader dart.

Chris Mills pointed to Sam Burns at +2500 in the first-round-leader market and called it mispriced given there are only 29 players in Atlanta instead of the usual 140-plus. Mills noted Burns’ current "great form" and proven fast starts, saying those same +2500 tickets are what books usually hang in a full field. With barely two dozen golfers to beat and dead-heat rules the only real drawback, Mills believes Burns is one of the best ways to attack Round-1 betting value.

Mills is fading a distracted Keegan Bradley by taking Andrew Novak at +150 (no-tie market) in the opening round. Bradley looked ‘terrible’ last week and is juggling Ryder Cup captaincy chatter after an exhausting media swing from Bethpage to East Lake. Novak arrives under the radar but in steady form, and Mills believes the +150 line underrates his chances against a player dealing with both poor ball-striking and heavy mental baggage.

Chris Mills likes Patrick Cantlay at essentially even money in his Thursday matchup with Corey Conners. Cantlay owns elite East Lake credentials—including his 2021 FedEx Cup title—and quietly sits on several top-10 finishes this season despite perception that he’s slumping. Conners, meanwhile, is fighting both balky putting (he ‘couldn’t make a putt over two feet’ in Memphis) and a possible wrist issue. For Mills, the bet is a straightforward course-horse with something to prove for the Ryder Cup against a banged-up opponent, and the pick-em price is simply too cheap.

Chris Mills is firing again on Ben Griffin, grabbing him at +165 (with ties) over Tommy Fleetwood in Thursday’s two-ball. Mills called Griffin his personal cash cow, noting last week’s wild ride where the North Carolinian went six over through three holes, then ripped off seven under across the next eleven to finish inside the top-20 and win the daily matchup. Griffin’s combination of length off the tee, fearless birdie-making and a public perception gap keeps him priced as an underdog despite a ceiling that can bury steadier opponents. Mills loves that volatility in single-round bets and believes Griffin wins this matchup far more often than the 37 % implied by +165.