Backing Seattle at -141, Chris Vasile cited two converging angles: a Jays bullpen he "already doesn’t trust" and Luis Castillo’s ability to put the Mariners in front early. Toronto’s relievers own a league-worst 5.47 ERA and have coughed up leads in four of their last six appearances. Meanwhile, Castillo has a 2.59 ERA at T-Mobile Park since the start of 2024 and is limiting opponents to a .202 batting average this season. Vasile anticipates a classic Castillo "gem"—six or more innings with double-digit swing-and-misses—allowing Seattle’s top-10 leverage bullpen to shorten the game. Given the expected pitching disparity both at the start and the end, he views the Mariners moneyline as the smart side.

Chris Vasile recommended laying the -125 with Philadelphia because the Phillies’ league-leading offense (131 wRC+) draws a Guardians starter sporting an ERA north of 5.00 and a .357 expected wOBA against. Vasile expects the hot bats that just hung 18 runs in their last two games to stay in attack mode. On the mound, Aaron Nola has posted back-to-back gems (15 IP, 2 ER, 17 K, 1 BB) and Vasile believes the veteran will secure his second win in as many turns given Cleveland’s 28th-ranked hard-hit rate and bottom-five slugging percentage versus righties. With both a lineup edge and the better form pitcher, Vasile sees clear betting value on the Phillies moneyline.

Chris Vasile laid out why he is backing the Brewers at -110 on the moneyline. He is actively fading Tampa Bay’s sputtering offense, noting that one isolated 5-run outburst is not enough to convince him the Rays have fixed a unit that ranks near the bottom of the league in wRC+ versus left-handed pitching. Vasile highlighted Jose Quintana’s "solid" start to 2025: a 2.91 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and five straight quality starts while averaging 6.2 innings per outing. Because Milwaukee’s bullpen has been spared heavy usage thanks to Quintana’s length, Vasile expects the lefty to attack a Rays lineup striking out 24.7% of the time against southpaws. In his view, Tampa’s lack of thump plus Quintana’s form makes the Brewers a value play in a coin-flip price range.