Welsh backed Tampa Bay on the first-five money line largely as a bet against Walker Buehler, who owns an ERA north of six since returning. He noted the Red Sox have been swinging it well but trusts Taj Bradley to hold the line while Buehler continues to get hit, giving the Rays the edge through five.

Chris Welsh took Seattle on the first-five money line despite the juice because he wants to back Bryan Woo and fade Marcus Stroman. Welsh loves Woo’s current form and does not trust Stroman in Yankee Stadium, so he’s betting the Mariners will be in front through five innings before bullpens enter the equation.

Chris Welsh said fantasy contenders should stay far away from Sandy Alcantara, calling him "rock-bottom" both in results and underlying skill. Alcantara owns the worst qualified ERA in baseball and even his xERA is nearly 5.0. Welsh pointed to a career-low strikeout rate, one of his highest walk rates in the last five seasons, and no meaningful dip in four-seam or sinker velocity—evidence the right-hander has simply lost feel rather than stuff. The changeup usage is down, efficiency on the pitch is way off, and hitters are teeing off. Because of that, Welsh believes any idea of a quick mechanical tweak or coaching ‘fix’ is wish-casting and not worth the acquisition cost in redraft leagues, especially for win-now rosters that cannot absorb more damage to ratios.

Chris Welsh called Andrew Abbott a must-start in all matchups after another strong outing versus Miami. Abbott owns a 2.00 ERA and an 8-1 record, driven by a hammer curve that opponents are hitting under .150 and a 32% CSW rate. Welsh pointed out the rookie has also trimmed his walk rate to 6% over his last five turns and now has seven quality starts in his past eight appearances. Asked whether to sit him against the Marlins, Welsh said you "start him against everybody right now," staking Abbott as a top-30 fantasy SP moving forward.

Chris Welsh urged listeners to scoop up Ronny Mauricio wherever he is still available. Welsh said Mauricio will be the Mets’ starting third baseman for the rest of the season, noting his plus arm, strong infield defense and "easy power" that flashed during recent games. With Mark Vientos scuffling and Brett Baty in Triple-A, Welsh expects Mauricio to see the bulk of starts at the hot corner and project for roughly a 20-homer, 10-steal pace over a full second half. Because he remains unrostered in many formats, Welsh labeled Mauricio the highest-upside waiver add at the position right now.

Chris Welsh urged fantasy managers not to drop Cam Schlittler after streaming him. The rookie sat 97.9 mph (touched 100) in 5.1 innings versus Seattle, fanning seven. Welsh loved the 38 % CSW on a fastball he threw 50 % of the time and a power slider that hit 94. With a tall frame that creates extension, Schlittler pounded the zone (fastball + slider strikes) and showed a four-pitch mix he can expand once he settles in. Welsh expects the Yankees to keep him in the rotation given their injuries and sees legitimate "strong second-half" upside—close enough to Chase Burns that he’d keep Schlittler on rosters to see how the league adjusts before deciding.

Chris Welsh said Tyler Glasnow once again looks like the borderline ace you pay up for. In his first start back he limited Milwaukee to one unearned run over 5.0 innings, allowing just four hard-hit balls while striking out five. Welsh highlighted the 96.8 mph average fastball (up roughly 1.5 mph year-over-year), a full 85-pitch workload and a pitch mix that featured both sinker and slider for strikes. Because many managers still view Glasnow as "injury-prone," Welsh believes the trade cost remains discounted and advised acquiring him now before two more tune-ups push his perceived value back into the clear top-15 SP range for the stretch run.

Welsh likes Philadelphia to lead by at least one run after five innings at ‑110. The edge starts with the pitching matchup: the Phillies send their ace (not named in the clip) against an opponent whose rotation spot has been a revolving door. Philly’s offense leads MLB in wRC+ the first two times through the order, while its staff owns a sub-3.00 ERA through five frames. By isolating the first five, Welsh avoids a shaky middle-relief corps and counts on the Phillies’ potent top-of-lineup to jump ahead early.

Welsh pivoted his daily home-run call to Manny Machado after noting Brandon Pfaadt’s crippling gopher-ball issue (1.8 HR/9) and 46 % fly-ball rate. Machado owns multiple long balls off Pfaadt already and carries a .600 slugging percentage in the matchup. With Petco playing small in the summer heat and Pfaadt’s fastball leaking middle-in, Welsh views Machado as the slate’s premier dinger pick, calling the matchup "BP at the Home Run Derby."

Chris Welsh’s favorite wager of the slate is Eric Lauer to record at least five strikeouts at ‑110. Lauer has hit that mark in back-to-back appearances since his fastball velo ticked up and regained late ride. The matchup sweetens the pot: Chicago ranks inside the bottom dozen clubs in contact rate and sits top-10 in overall strikeout percentage. Given Lauer’s new swing-and-miss profile and the White Sox’s free-swinging approach, Welsh expects the left-hander to clear 4.5 Ks comfortably, projecting six or seven punch-outs in roughly five innings.

On the BettingPros futures segment, Chris Welsh advised pulling back on Houston Astros pennant and World Series tickets. He argued the club cannot make a deep run without Yordan Alvarez, who still "has yet to resume hitting," and noted Jeremy Pena has not even begun baseball activities. Welsh pointed out that he already wagered the Astros to taper off in the AL West and thinks the recent spate of injuries strengthens that position. Even though Houston has strung together a few wins, Welsh expects a second-half slide, opening value on division rivals in outright markets and win-total unders on Houston.

Chris Welsh acknowledged Michael Harris II has been "not remotely worth the cost"—he is hitting just .122 (6-for-49) with zero homers and two steals over his last 15 games and has now been benched on back-to-back days. Even so, Welsh urged fantasy managers to keep him rostered. He expects Atlanta, currently well out of both the division race and wild-card picture, to give Harris everyday run in the second half rather than option or platoon him. With no threat of a demotion or trade and plenty of time for a second-half adjustment, Welsh believes patient managers could still recoup value in steals and counting stats once the pressure of contention is gone.

Chris Welsh told listeners it is time to "wash Matt Shaw away" in redraft formats. Shaw is ice-cold over his last 32 games, slashing .159/.230/.234 with zero homers and sporadic playing-time opportunities. Welsh said the Cubs are pivoting to a win-now, playoff-centric roster and will not be comfortable handing everyday at-bats to a rookie who is striking out and producing no impact. Because Chicago still has to shuffle pieces at the deadline, Welsh sees Shaw as the obvious roster casualty and advised fantasy managers to cut him rather than wait for a turnaround that is unlikely to come in 2024.

Chris Welsh advised fantasy managers to scoop up Lawrence Butler immediately, expecting another trademark July-August tear. Welsh reminded listeners that Butler was a "stud" during those exact two months last year and is already heating up with two homers and three runs scored against Atlanta. What really impressed Welsh is that Butler is doing it without selling out for pull power: only one true pull-side homer all season and an 11 percent pull rate, yet he is still posting premium hard-hit numbers. With the weather warming in Sacramento (the A’s Triple-A affiliate location where Butler historically torches pitching) and no obvious playing-time threat on Oakland’s big-league roster, Welsh sees a perfect window to buy before the rest of the market prices in another mid-summer binge.

Welsh called Kevin Ginkel a viable but risky add. The Diamondbacks’ bullpen is down to “the last man standing,” and Torey Lovullo’s loyalty means Ginkel keeps the ninth despite being “awful” this season. Save chances should be plentiful on a competitive Arizona club, but Welsh warned another blow-up could end his run or lead to a trade. He’s worth a claim if you need immediate saves, yet Welsh would budget less FAAB than for Ronnie Henriquez and treat Ginkel as a short-term play.

Welsh recommended grabbing Tyler Freeman wherever he’s still available. Freeman qualifies at shortstop and the outfield, is hitting .349 at Coors and .329 on the road, and sports a walk rate higher than his strikeout rate. He provides steady steals, leads off for Colorado, and should pile up runs. Welsh likened him to an NL version of Ernie Clement or Nico Hoerner—high average, speed, modest power—and called him the most interesting waiver add this week because his batting-average/runs/steals combo can anchor a roto lineup even if the homer total stays low.

Chris Welsh said Colson Montgomery needs to be scooped up everywhere after Chicago brought him back up. The White Sox sent the 1st-rounder to the complex earlier in the year to overhaul his swing and the changes are obvious: a 15% strike-out rate that matches a 15% walk rate, 82% zone-contact percentage, and 25% pulled fly-ball rate. Welsh called the tools "beyond belief" and believes those plate-skill gains open the door to a rest-of-season 20-homer, 20-steal pace if the Ks stay down. With the rebuilding Sox likely batting him near the top of the order, Welsh views Montgomery as a rare league-winning waiver add.

Chris Welsh bet Jack Flaherty over 6.5 strikeouts at plus money, noting the right-hander has fanned eight hitters in back-to-back outings and is riding a 31% strikeout rate thanks to a slider generating a 47% whiff rate. The White Sox strike out 26% of the time against righties and rank bottom-five in contact percentage. Welsh believes books are anchoring to Flaherty’s early-season inefficiency, but his last three starts have averaged 15 pitches per inning, creating room to work into the seventh and reach seven Ks. He called the Sox “the perfect opponent to pay off the plus-money ticket.”

Revisiting his earlier enthusiasm, Welsh tempered expectations for newly promoted Cole Young. He still likes the 21-year-old’s elite contact ability (88 % contact rate in the minors) and potential 15-20-steal pace, but warned Seattle’s pitcher-friendly park will suppress homer output and therefore counting stats. Welsh slotted Young as a ‘15-team middle-infield stopgap,’ suggesting managers in shallower 12-team leagues should prioritize Marcelo Mayer instead. He expects Young’s real-life value to exceed his fantasy impact unless he unexpectedly claims a top-of-order spot alongside Julio Rodriguez.

After Pfaadt’s zero-out, eight-earned implosion, Chris Welsh said fantasy managers have to pull the plug. He pointed out that Pfaadt entered the weekend with an expected ERA north of 6.00 and a 46% hard-hit rate—both screaming regression—even while the surface ERA sat in the low threes. Saturday’s disaster merely caught the stat line up to the underlying metrics. With Arizona’s infield defense weakened by injuries and the bullpen in flux, Welsh expects more crooked numbers whenever Pfaadt’s command wavers. He advised dropping or at least benching Pfaadt in anything shallower than 15-team roto until the right-hander displays a secondary pitch that can miss bats (current 19.7% K-rate) and prove the homer issues (1.7 HR/9) are under control.

Welsh recommended scooping up newly promoted Cole Young in all 15-team leagues and as a speculative MI play in deeper 12-teamers. The 21-year-old slashed .312/.392/.468 across Double- and Triple-A with an 88% contact rate and 15 steals before the call-up. Welsh said Seattle views him as a future table-setter; if he sticks, he could slide into the No. 2 spot ahead of Julio Rodriguez, creating immediate run-scoring upside. While T-Mobile Park suppresses homers, Young’s plus hit tool and willingness to run (projected 15-20 SB pace over 600 PA) make him fantasy-relevant right away. Managers hurting at middle infield should act now before he logs a stealing binge and costs FAAB next weekend.

Welsh urged managers to stash Ian Seymour, arguing Tampa Bay has nothing left to learn from the lefty at Triple-A. Seymour currently LEADS the level in strikeouts and owns the highest swinging-strike rate across all qualifiers. His K-minus-BB percentage sits at an elite 29 %, fueled by a fastball that carries at the top of the zone and a splitter generating whiffs at a 46 % clip. Welsh expects the Rays to create space via a phantom IL stint or a bullpen demotion for one of their struggling starters, saying, ‘They actually need to see what he looks like against MLB hitters.’ In 15-team leagues he is a proactive add; in 12-teamers he is at least a watch-list priority for streaming upside once the call comes.

Chris Welsh doubled down on his preseason hype by predicting Junior Caminero will close 2024 as a top-five third baseman. After a sluggish April, Caminero’s OPS has rocketed from .682 to .803 thanks to a 10-day heater that included four homers, pushing his season line to 13 HR and 37 RBI. Welsh noted Tropicana Field’s new right-center power alley has boosted his barrel rate, and that plate-discipline tweaks (swinging at 4% fewer pitches out of the zone since May 15) are starting to surface. He expects Caminero to out-produce slumping veterans such as Eugenio Suarez and even rival Vladimir Guerrero in the HR+RBI department, while maintaining a serviceable .260 average. Fantasy managers who remained patient are now staring at a potential league-winner; anyone else should explore buying high before the rest of the room realizes he belongs in the Devers/Ramirez/Machado tier.

Chris Welsh said fantasy GMs need to stop fading Cal Raleigh simply because of the .230-ish batting average. Raleigh now sits on 23 homers and is pacing for 60+, a mark that would shatter Salvador Perez’s single-season record (48) for a primary catcher. Welsh rattled off several historic nuggets: Raleigh has already homered twice from the left side, twice from the right side, and from both sides in a single game, becoming the first catcher ever to pull off all three feats in one season. Welsh argued that in today’s depressed offensive environment the raw power and volume of plate appearances easily outweigh the batting-average drag, especially when only a handful of catchers are hitting over .260 anyway. He urged managers in season-long formats to value Raleigh as a locked-in top-three option rest of season and to trade for him before the market fully corrects.

Chris Welsh advised stashing Ian Seymour, pointing out that he leads Triple-A in strikeouts and owns the highest swinging-strike rate plus a top-tier K-minus-BB percentage. Welsh believes the Rays will soon create room through a phantom IL stint or injury replacement because Seymour “is absolutely capped out at Triple-A.” The 25-year-old left-hander’s swing-and-miss arsenal makes him more than a spot starter, and Welsh expects Tampa Bay to give him a big-league look in the very near future, making him a speculative add for anyone chasing strikeouts and ratios.

Welsh labeled Carson Wisenhunt the clear "next guy up" in San Francisco. The left-hander’s 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in the PCL are backed by 52 K and only 7 BB over 51 IP, thanks to a wipeout changeup and a newly sharpened sinker/slider mix. Most importantly, his walk rate has plummeted from 4–5 per nine last year to 1.24 in 2024. With only one southpaw (Robbie Ray) in the big-league rotation and Jordan Hicks shifting back to relief, Welsh expects Wisenhunt to get the first call if Hayden Birdsong falters or an injury hits. Deep leaguers should stash or at least flag him on watch lists for immediate pickup.

Chris Welsh said Bubba Chandler should remain stashed even though Pittsburgh is clearly slow-playing the call-up to protect an extra year of control. Chandler just struck out seven over 4.1 AAA innings, generated 15 whiffs on 41 swings, and flashed 100 mph heat while mixing four pitches effectively. Walks can still creep in, but Welsh believes the right-hander would instantly be the most valuable SP prospect in fantasy once promoted. The Pirates have nothing to play for, so the Super-Two date—likely early June—appears to be the only obstacle. Welsh urged dynasty and season-long managers who have held this long not to drop him, noting Pittsburgh’s rotation depth is thin and Chandler’s next start "should be in the majors."

Chris Welsh doubled down on Tyler Soderstrom, this time grabbing his +440 home-run line (and sprinkling the total-bases over) against Jordan Lyles in Kauffman Stadium. Welsh pointed out Soderstrom is "on a thing right now," logging six extra-base hits and three homers in his last five games while carrying a 51 % fly-ball rate. Right-handed hitters have produced a .367 xwOBA and 2.1 HR/9 off Lyles, and the spacious Kansas City alleys actually play up Soderstrom’s pull-side power thanks to a 10 mph wind out to right-center. With Soderstrom’s max-exit velo back above 110 mph, Welsh views the +440 tag as mispriced relative to similar mid-tier sluggers sitting in the +320 range.

Welsh’s favorite plus-money prop is Tyler Soderstrom over 1.5 total bases against right-hander Matt Sauer in Kansas City. Soderstrom has logged four extra-base hits in his last three games and owns a 51 % fly-ball rate, the ideal profile for Kauffman Stadium’s spacious alleys. Sauer has surrendered a .368 expected wOBA to left-handed hitters across Triple-A and MLB combined, and his fastball sits only 92-93 mph—exactly the velo band Soderstrom has punished for a .640 slugging mark. Welsh expects at least one double or homer, making the +140 line a clear value.

Chris Welsh told listeners to keep the faith in Adolis Garcia even with the outfielder slogging along at a .229 batting average. Garcia’s 15.7 % barrel rate and 48 % hard-hit rate both sit above his 2023 levels, signaling the power stroke is perfectly healthy. The problem, as Welsh put it, is a "still-too-high" 28 % strikeout rate that caps batting-average upside around .240. He expects both Garcia and the rest of the injury-thinned Rangers lineup to rebound as temperatures rise and Corey Seager returns to full strength, projecting 25-plus homers and double-digit steals from this point forward. Unless managers receive a top-50 overall piece back, Welsh is holding rather than selling low.

Welsh told listeners he would roster Kyle Stowers over Jasson Dominguez the rest of the way. Stowers has seized a top-of-the-order role and is slashing .296/.356/.565 with four homers in just 53 plate appearances, giving him a 164 wRC+. Dominguez owns a respectable 116 wRC+ with five homers and three steals, but Welsh emphasized that three of those bombs came in one game and that Yankee Stadium’s dimensions can mask inconsistencies. He trusts the Orioles to keep Stowers in a prime run-production spot, whereas Dominguez could still ride the shuttle if the Yankees’ veteran outfield gets healthy. In 12-team redraft Welsh is adding Stowers wherever possible and treating Dominguez as a luxury stash, not a must-hold.

Chris Welsh sided with Rhys Hoskins over Vinnie Pasquantino for the remainder of 2024, calling the veteran first baseman “vintage Hoskins.” Welsh pointed out that Hoskins’ underlying metrics have completely rebounded: a 13.2 % barrel rate, 46 % hard-hit rate and a launch angle right in his career sweet spot have fueled 10 homers and a 120 wRC+. Although Milwaukee’s lineup is merely average—Hoskins has only 12 runs in 41 games—Welsh still expects the power to carry him into the top-10 range at the position because several early over-performers (Wilmer Flores, Tyler Soderstrom) are likely to fade. Pasquantino may give you a handful of batting-average points, but Welsh argued that Hoskins’ bankable 25-35 homer pace is far more valuable in 12-team season-long formats.

Chris Welsh told managers to grab David Festa right now, predicting Minnesota will promote him within the next 2-3 days after optioning Simeon Woods Richardson. Festa has been dominant over his last two Triple-A turns—14 strikeouts, zero walks, and only three hits across 11 2⁄3 innings—while steadily building his pitch count into the mid-80s. Welsh said he’d dump a low-ceiling streamer like Patrick Corbin to stash Festa, calling the rookie a borderline must-add in 12-teamers because he sits 94-96 with a plus change and slider. Although Zebby Matthews remains in the conversation, Welsh believes the clerical roster move strongly hints that “Festivus for the rest of us” is imminent.

Chris Welsh told listeners to hold or re-add Nick Kurtz rather than cling to Jordan Lawlar. Kurtz is batting .280 with his first big-league homer and, in Welsh’s words, the “profile looks good.” Lawlar, meanwhile, is stuck in a platoon that limits him to sporadic at-bats, and Welsh does not expect significant playing-time growth unless Ketel Marte lands on the IL—something Arizona says is unlikely after the second baseman merely reported general soreness. Because Lawlar’s upside is currently theoretical while Kurtz is producing every day, Welsh advised reversing any recent Lawlar-for-Kurtz swap and treating Kurtz as the superior season-long stash in 12-team formats.

Chris Welsh encouraged fantasy players to trade for Alex Bregman, arguing the third baseman’s new mechanics and batted-ball profile support a true renaissance. Bregman has opened up his stance and is barreling 11.5 % of balls with a career-best hard-hit rate while striking out under 20 %. His 19-degree average launch angle is at the top of his historical range, fueling 11 home runs and a .314 average through Wednesday. Baseball Savant’s park-adjusted overlay shows even more power if he played elsewhere, suggesting his current pace of 25-30 homers with 100 runs and 100 RBI is sustainable. Welsh projects a rest-of-season line near .290 with top-50 overall value, making Bregman a buy-high even if a league-mate thinks he’s selling high.

Welsh recommended betting Houston First Five Moneyline at +110 with Hunter Brown opposing Jacob deGrom. Brown owns MLB’s third-best xERA (2.16) and a 32 % strikeout rate, while Texas is missing Corey Seager and has managed just eight runs in its last four games. If the game is tied after five innings the wager pushes, so Welsh views it as low-risk, high-reward exposure to an elite arm facing a slumping, injury-thinned lineup.

Chris Welsh warned that Patrick Corbin is still a ticking time-bomb and should only be used as a matchup-based streamer. Corbin draws the Yankees early next week and Welsh flat-out refused to start him in that spot, noting New York is top-10 in wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Corbin’s lone appeal is the projected follow-up start against the White Sox—an offense that sits bottom-five in OPS versus southpaws. In daily moves leagues Welsh would bench him for the Yankees and deploy him for Chicago; in weekly formats he’d rather roster 40–50 alternative one-start arms than eat both outings. The takeaway: squeeze value against true bottom feeders, but abandon ship the moment a competent lineup appears.

Chris Welsh chose Mookie Betts for his daily home-run call and said he will sprinkle Betts’ "anytime HR" prop. Oakland is expected to throw left-hander Jeffrey Springs (or another TBD southpaw), giving Betts the platoon edge he has crushed for a .602 SLG and 47 % pull rate this season. Welsh added that Dodger Stadium grades as one of the best pull-side parks for right-handed power, making Betts a priority play in DFS and betting markets.

Welsh is backing Jose Soriano to record at least four strikeouts (over 3.5 at –110) even though the Padres strike out less than any team in baseball. Soriano has topped that mark in all but two of his starts this season and just fanned six Diamondbacks—another low-K lineup—thanks to a power sinker/curveball mix that hitters chase 34% of the time. Because the number is so modest, Welsh views it as "a battle I’m willing to fight," trusting Soriano’s 24% K-rate more than San Diego’s contact skills.

Welsh loves Spencer Schwellenbach’s strikeout prop at 5.5 and is betting the over. The rookie has cleared that number in two of his last three starts, leaning on a filthy split-finger that generated a 36% whiff rate in his most recent outing. Washington is a contact-oriented club but still sits mid-table in strikeout percentage (22.4%), and Welsh thinks the matchup tilts toward Schwellenbach because "that split will give fits to their left-handed outfielders." With no heavy juice attached, Welsh labeled it a "low strikeout total that’s too tempting to pass."

Chris Welsh warned managers that Trevor Story’s bat is unplayable right now and suggested Boston may soon relieve him of shortstop duties. After a 0-for-3 with two additional strikeouts dropped Story to .145 (9-for-62) over his last 15 games, Welsh highlighted the ugly peripherals: just one homer and 21 strikeouts in that span. He floated a position switch—“Story to first base and take one for the team”—as the quickest way for the Red Sox to get top prospect Marcelo Mayer or even Roman Anthony into the lineup. While Welsh does not expect Boston to outright bench or DFA Story, he believes the front office “has to take a long look at this roster” and managers in season-long formats should park Story on the bench or look to move on before the club forces the issue.

Welsh noted that Drew Pomeranz has thrown seven scoreless innings since joining the Cubs, posting eight strikeouts and a sparkling 0.52 WHIP. With Chicago wanting Ryan Pressly “nowhere near” ninth-inning work on certain nights and Porter Hodge occasionally unavailable, Welsh believes Pomeranz can pick up one-off saves and is "a nice deeper-league speculative guy." He compared the veteran’s current run to Shelby Miller’s early 2023 stretch with Arizona and recommended stashing Pomeranz in formats where every potential closer matters, while acknowledging Porter Hodge remains the favorite for the majority of save chances.

Chris Welsh urged fantasy managers in 10- and even 12-team redraft leagues to pick up Trent Grisham, projecting the outfielder to "leave this year with a 25-home-run season." Welsh backed the take with elite underlying numbers: a 17% barrel rate, 48.9% hard-hit rate, only an 18% strikeout rate (career low), double-digit walk rate, and an average 20° launch angle. Grisham’s .288 batting average nearly matches his .287 xBA, and he has already launched 12 homers despite zero steals. Welsh concluded that even if the batting average settles around .260, the power profile looks real and is worth an immediate add.

Welsh took Justin Verlander under 4.5 strikeouts at –115. Verlander has failed to reach five punch-outs in back-to-back starts and sits at a career-low 20% K-rate. The Diamondbacks strike out just 19.2% of the time against righties, fourth-best in MLB, and welcome Ketel Marte back to the lineup, further lowering their whiff profile. Welsh noted that Arizona’s lefty trio of Corbin Carroll, Joc Pederson and Lourdes Gurriel all own sub-17% K-rates, making it tough for Verlander to pile up strikeouts unless he finds vintage velocity that has yet to appear in 2024.

Chris Welsh said Clayton Kershaw is expected to be activated this week after tossing six no-hit frames in his final Triple-A rehab outing. Welsh cautioned that several balls were scorched to the warning track and noted the veteran allowed louder contact than the line suggests. Because the Dodgers will almost certainly keep him on a modest pitch count in the first start and wins are the only bankable category, Welsh advised picking Kershaw up everywhere but sitting him initially in roto or H2H leagues that count ratio stats. He added that the Dodgers’ soft NL West cushion gives the club no reason to push Kershaw beyond 75–80 pitches until he proves fully healthy.

Chris Welsh encouraged fantasy managers in 12-team and deeper leagues to scoop Jordan Lawlar after Arizona finally promoted him. Welsh said manager Torey Lovullo plans to play Lawlar four of every six games by rotating him between third, short, second, and the DH spot. The 21-year-old slashed .336/.414/.551 with six homers and 13 steals in Triple-A, and his average exit velocity jumped to 110 mph — a career best. He is elevating more consistently, and Welsh believes the 28-for-31 minor-league stolen-base track record will translate because the D-backs run aggressively. The downside is Lawlar will hit in the bottom third of the order and could sit twice in short weeks, so Welsh stopped short of calling him a must-add in shallow 10-team leagues.

Woodruff will return later this week after a 39-pitch tune-up, and Welsh expects the Brewers to cap him around 70-75 pitches in the debut (likely Friday vs. Minnesota). He advised scooping Woodruff everywhere but sitting him if you’re guarding ratios, unless the matchup shifts to a bottom-tier offense like Pittsburgh. With Aaron Ashby, D.L. Hall and two upper-minors prospects also vying for rotation spots, Welsh stressed that Milwaukee badly needs Woodruff behind Freddy Peralta, so his workload should climb quickly after the first abbreviated turn.

Welsh warned that Francis’ six-plus solid innings Sunday were fool’s gold. Under the hood he owns a 5.40 ERA with an even worse xERA, a 17 % K-rate, 12 % barrel rate, and 50 % hard-hit rate. Both primary pitches carry opponent xBAs 40-plus points higher than league average. Unless he strings together four straight dominant outings, Welsh sees him strictly as a matchup-based streamer and would not chase him on waivers in anything shallower than 15-team formats.