Claudia Bellofatto argued the +205 price on Dricus Du Plessis is too wide and represents pure value. She thinks the betting market is charging a "hype tax" for Khamzat Chimaev’s viral jaw-crank of Robert Whittaker, ignoring Du Plessis’s own 9-0 tear in less time than Chimaev’s 8-0 run. Bellofatto highlighted Du Plessis’s 6.12 significant strikes landed per minute, 54 % striking defence, switch-stance blitzes, and proven five-round gas tank (two recent 25-minute fights versus Sean Strickland and Israel Adesanya) as edges that could flip the late moments of a championship bout. She also questioned whether Chimaev can sustain his frenetic wrestling pace for 25 minutes on U.S. soil after three years fighting mostly in the UAE. With those intangibles plus stylistic chaos that Chimaev cannot game-plan for, Bellofatto recommends grabbing the underdog moneyline before books correct the number.

Claudia Bellofatto said the cleanest way to attack the UFC 319 main event is the Over 2.5 Takedowns prop on Khamzat Chimaev at –105. Chimaev has a 100 % takedown-defence rate himself but, more importantly for this wager, he relentlessly pursues his own shots—averaging 4.31 completed takedowns per 15 minutes and attempting one every 48 seconds he is upright. Bellofatto reminded viewers that Chimaev launched 12 attempts (landing 4) against Kamaru Usman and 4 attempts (landing 2) on Robert Whittaker. Opponent Dricus Du Plessis stops only 50 % of tries, so even if the South African pops back up, every mat return counts. Because Du Plessis’s cardio and durability should let the fight stretch beyond the opening storm, Bellofatto feels three—or more—completed takedowns is the most probable statistical outcome and the nearly even price is mis-hung.

Claudia Bellofatto skipped the money-line and laid ‑180 on the fight-to-go-decision prop. Her case: Lerone Murphy has evolved from knockout hunter to patient wrestler, with each of his last five victories coming via judges. Aaron Pico owns Olympic-trial wrestling chops plus serious boxing pop, but is debuting after an 18-month layoff and has historically taken risks he will likely curb over three rounds. Murphy’s cardio questions and Pico’s wrestling edge cancel each other out in Claudia’s eyes, making a 15-minute back-and-forth more probable than a finish. She leans Pico slightly but believes the safest angle is simply banking on the judges’ scorecards.

Claudia Bellofatto paired the Oleksiejczuk money-line with the fight to end inside 1.5 rounds at +110. She pointed out that six of Oleksiejczuk’s last eight bouts have closed inside the opening frame and each of his last five victories came by knockout. The Pole is landing 5.27 significant strikes per minute with 51 percent accuracy, numbers Bellofatto contrasted with Meerschaert’s “loose defense” and fading chin. Books agree on violence – the ‘doesn’t go distance’ prop sits at ‑380 – but Claudia likes the plus money because Oleksiejczuk is also seven years younger, owns clear hand-speed and has shored up defensive grappling since moving to Brazil and training with “the fighting nerds” under Kyle Barallo. In her view GM3’s only path is the mat, and he will not survive long enough to get it there.

Bellofatto built a two-legger at +110: Michal ‘Hussar’ Oleksiejczuk money-line paired with under 1.5 rounds. Books have ‘fight doesn’t go distance’ juiced to –380 because it is classic striker-vs-grappler violence—Oleksiejczuk’s southpaw body hooks and blitzes have produced nine first-round KOs, while Gerald Meerschaert owns 27 career submissions. Bellofatto believes Oleksiejczuk’s hand speed and pressure make an early knockout more likely than another Meerschaert hail-mary choke, so hitching his ML to the short total turns heavy chalk into plus money. She purposely avoided piling on extra legs, calling the +110 number simple but strong given the matchup’s binary, finish-heavy profile.

Bellofatto played ‘fight does NOT go the distance’ at –125 in the Elliott–Asakura flyweight clash. She noted Tim Elliott’s 47 % takedown accuracy and perpetual scramble style but warned his 38-year-old frame and hands-low entries leave defensive holes. Asakura owns vicious knees, kicks and one-punch power—his last three bouts ended inside the first seven minutes—and told reporters he is specifically timing a knockout if Elliott level-changes with his hands down. Elliott has not been KO’d in years, yet Bellofatto believes his year-plus layoff and the weight-class’s unforgiving speed make that streak vulnerable. Conversely, if Elliott hits a clean chain-wrestling sequence, Asakura’s grappling gaps could see him tap quickly, illustrated by his lone UFC loss coming via submission to Alexandre Pantoja. Either scenario ends before the horn, making the –125 price attractive.

Claudia Bellofatto built an alt-method ticket at –115 that cashes if Chase Hooper wins by submission or Alexander Hernandez wins by decision. Hooper has ended three of his last four victories with rear-naked chokes and will shoot relentlessly the moment he feels space. Hernandez owns a 71 % takedown-defense rate, logged 4-of-5 takedowns and 65 % control time against Kurt Hallibow, and has earned each of his last three wins on the scorecards. Bellofatto added that Hernandez’s nonstop blitzes sap his cardio, making a late-fight scramble reversal into a Hooper choke entirely plausible, while a clean wrestling-and-boxing approach lets Hernandez coast to a points win. The double-chance line therefore captures what she believes are the only realistic endings and chops Hooper’s heavy money-line juice down to near pick-em odds.

Claudia Bellofatto also endorsed the Saints under 4.5 wins, attracted by the plus-money price. Her skepticism centers on crucial unknowns: first-year head coach Kellen Moore, an injury-marred quarterback in Tyler Shough whose deep-ball accuracy and availability are both question marks, and a roster she ranks bottom-five at most position groups. The Saints went 0-7 without Derek Carr last year; Claudia doubts this QB room fares any better. Even with a soft schedule and improved health, she pegs the realistic ceiling at four wins and prefers the under at plus odds.

Claudia Bellofatto said the 750-yard rushing prop for Alvin Kamara is badly mispriced and hammered the over. Her case: Kamara ripped off 950 rushing yards in just 14 games last year despite splitting passing-down work and playing behind a banged-up line. The only season he missed this number (outside of his debut year) was a 13-game 2023 in which he still finished six yards shy of 700. New Orleans spent two premium draft picks (Taliese Fuaga and Taliese Banks Jr.) to beef up an offensive line that already graded above average. With Chris Olave expected to shoulder more of the receiving load, Kamara can focus on early-down volume, making 750 yards a mark he should clear even if he misses two or three games.

Claudia Bellofatto backed OVER 900.5 receiving yards for Calvin Ridley. She pointed to expected negative game scripts and Cam Ward’s willingness to throw deep – something Ridley lacked last season yet still posted 1,016 yards. Ridley cleared 1,300 yards in 2020 and remains the undisputed alpha in a thin receiver room. Bellofatto believes Tennessee’s porous defense will force a pass-heavy approach, giving Ridley the target volume needed to beat this number even with some age-related decline.

Claudia Bellofatto also leaned UNDER 18.5 passing touchdowns for Cam Ward, despite his 38-TD season at Miami. She reminded listeners the Titans lost last year’s TD leader Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and replaced him with 32-year-old Tyler Lockett plus Van Jefferson, a duo that combined for only 4 scores in 2024. Bellofatto likes Chig Okonkwo as a safety valve but does not see enough red-zone options to threaten 19 scores. With Tennessee tied for the sixth-fewest passes of 20+ yards last year and still fielding a shaky offensive line, she expects defensive pressure to stall drives and keep Ward below the total.

Claudia Bellofatto hammered Bryce Young over 17.5 passing touchdowns (and said she’d still play 18.5). Young tossed 15 TDs last year despite early struggles and a mid-season benching; he now gets a full leash in an upgraded offense. Carolina added red-zone threats Tett McMillan, Rico Dowdell, and second-year wideout Xavier Legette to take the load off Adam Thielen. With better pass protection and NFL simulation models spitting out a 20-TD projection, Bellofatto sees anything under 18 scores as a gift and recommended jumping on −110 juice wherever available.

Claudia Bellofatto leaned to the Carolina Panthers over 6.5 wins at +120, arguing the franchise finally has foundational stability. She credited Dave Canales for squeezing three extra victories out of last year’s roster and for the confidence-building decision to briefly bench Bryce Young. Off-season moves addressed every weak spot: Tett McMillan gives the passing game a real boundary weapon so Adam Thielen can live in the slot, the backfield now runs three-deep, and ownership poured money into a defense that was “historically bad.” Bellofatto also pointed out Carolina now carries the NFL’s most expensive offensive line after upgrading from worst in the league to top-10 in pressure rate last season. Coach-of-the-Year odds (Canales sits top-5) and a healthier roster are her final tells that the arrow only points up.

Claudia Bellofatto urged fantasy managers to tread carefully with 30-year-old James Conner, calling him “one of the least explosive running backs in the NFL.” Conner’s 4.6 yards per carry mask declining burst, and he still picked up a late-season knee injury despite a career-high 16 games played. Bellofatto worries age-related regression and the arrival of rookie Trey Benson could siphon touches, making Conner a risky RB2 at his current draft cost.

Claudia Bellofatto leaned OVER 8.5 wins at –120, noting Arizona needs just one additional victory after last year’s eight. She acknowledged the back-half schedule is tough and the franchise historically fades late, but believes offseason defensive additions—Josh Sweat, Calais Campbell, rookies Walter Nolen and Will Johnson—address last year’s biggest weakness (5-of-7 losses down the stretch). Bellofatto also expects at least one extra road win after a 2-win road record and thinks regression from NFC West rivals opens a path to nine wins.

Bellofatto also prefers the OVER on 9.5 wins. She reminded listeners that last summer’s preseason total was just 5.5, illustrating how quickly the market has recalibrated. Denver went 9-2 when holding opponents under 20 points in 2024 and has since upgraded an already stout defense with Greenlaw, Hufanga, and Barron. Offensively, Nix gets another year in the system and better skill depth. Claudia added that out-of-division draws versus the NFC East and AFC South offer several winnable games. At –110, she expects the line to juice up later and wants the ticket in hand before then.

Claudia thinks Denver is worth a sprinkle at +350 to win the AFC West. She ranks the Broncos slightly ahead of the Chargers, citing a legitimate coach-QB combo in Sean Payton and Bo Nix plus a defense that now matches Kansas City’s on paper. She expects regression for the Chiefs after a 12-0 record in one-score games and notes their offensive-line issues were exposed in the Super Bowl. The Chargers still have offensive questions despite Jim Harbaugh’s arrival. If KC slips even a little, Claudia believes Denver’s balanced roster gives them a credible path to first place, making the 50-cent gap from L.A. attractive.

Bellofatto is betting OVER 24.5 passing TDs for Bo Nix. The rookie threw 29 scores last season and Denver finished as one of the league’s most efficient red-zone offenses. Among 29 qualified passers, Nix ranked 7th in touchdown rate—better than Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow—and posted just a 2.4% red-zone interception rate. Claudia likes that Sean Payton added Evan Engram as a chain-moving safety valve and deeper running-back depth, which should make defenses play honest near the goal line. Given last year’s production and improved supporting cast, she sees no reason Nix can’t match or exceed last season’s total, calling the under “a bad bet.”

Claudia Bellofatto said Bo Nix should take a noticeable step forward in his sophomore campaign. She pointed to Sean Payton’s scheme continuity, Denver returning all five starters from the line that finished first in pass-blocking efficiency, and an influx of skill talent (Evan Engram plus a revamped backfield) as key catalysts. Nix already closed 2024 on a 45-TD pace over his last eight games while ranking top-10 in both passing yards and EPA. Claudia added that Denver’s protection lets him get the ball out quickly, his deep-ball accuracy improved late in the year, and he is likely to extend more plays with his legs. All of that makes him an arrow-up asset for season-long fantasy and best-ball drafts.

Bellofatto recommended the Under on Breece Hall’s 900.5 rushing-yards prop (–110 each way). She cited Aaron Glenn’s public commitment to a three-back rotation featuring rookies Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis. Hall graded out as the lowest of that trio last season, posting career-worst yards per carry and six fumbles while running a league-high 24 routes per game. New pass-game coordinator Tanner Engstrand targeted RBs at the fourth-highest rate in Detroit, suggesting Hall may again siphon volume into receptions rather than rushes. The math of split carries plus Fields’ scramble tendency leads her to the Under.

Bellofatto echoed the Over on Fields’ 14.5 touchdown line, calling the price ‘confusingly low.’ Fields has cleared this mark twice despite never playing a full season, and 2023 saw noticeable jumps in accuracy and turnover avoidance. A rebuilt offensive line should extend his pocket time, and his scrambling ability forces defenses into lighter coverages near the goal line. With negligible competition behind him, availability is the only real threat to cashing the Over.

Bellofatto agreed that the Browns are the logical wager in the ‘worst record’ pool. She emphasized Cleveland’s brutal strength-of-schedule ranking (tied with the Giants for hardest in the league) and lingering uncertainty at quarterback. While she is skeptical of New York and the Giants, she sees more upside with those clubs than with Cleveland, whose roster gaps and tough slate create a clear path to the NFL’s cellar.

Claudia Bellofatto said she would rather play the Over on New York’s 5.5-win total (currently juiced to –155) than grab the plus-money Under. Her confidence stems from several upgrades: a new front office and a defensive-minded head coach in Aaron Glenn, an offensive coordinator arriving from Detroit’s top-five unit, and the switch to Justin Fields, an athletic upgrade over an aging Aaron Rodgers. Hall and Wilson give him proven skill talent, Mekhi Becton’s move to right tackle fortifies an offensive line that was specifically addressed in free agency, and last year’s defense already finished top-half despite constant turmoil. New York managed five victories during a season filled with injuries and drama, so Bellofatto sees six (or even seven) wins as a realistic ceiling with a middle-of-the-pack schedule and a far calmer locker room. She would not lay heavy juice but would play the Over if it drops closer to –130.

Claudia Bellofatto also leaned to the OVER on the Cowboys’ 7.5-win total but warned she will not "drink the juice" at –165. Bellofatto pointed out that the opening six weeks feature several winnable matchups despite the schedule rating as the NFL’s fifth toughest overall. Her bigger concern is a brutal late-season gauntlet of the Eagles, Chiefs, Lions, and Vikings in consecutive weeks. Dallas went just 2-7 at Jerry World last season after going undefeated at home the year before, and she expects some regression back toward competence in Arlington. Bellofatto believes Dallas can reach seven or eight victories, yet she will stay on the sidelines until a better price emerges.

Claudia Bellofatto advised leaning UNDER on George Pickens’ 4.5 touchdown prop. Her primary concern is Dallas’ red-zone ineptitude: the Cowboys ranked 31st in red-zone TD rate last season, finishing behind every team except the Giants, despite having a superior receiving corps. Digging into Pickens’ own history, she highlighted that the receiver has never topped five TDs in a season—he owns just 12 scores in three NFL campaigns. Bellofatto also expects tight end Jake Ferguson (who led all TEs in red-zone targets last year) to continue siphoning valuable looks inside the 20, leaving fewer high-leverage chances for Pickens. Given the combination of schematic tendencies—Dallas funnelling red-zone targets to the tight end—and Pickens’ modest scoring track record, she feels the under is the right side.

Claudia Bellofatto leaned to the OVER on Dak Prescott’s 3,800.5 passing-yard prop. She pointed out that Prescott has already cleared 4,000 yards twice since 2021 and was pacing for another 4K season in 2022 before injury. Even if Dallas struggles, she expects game script to force a pass-heavy approach because the Cowboys opted for an underwhelming backfield (Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders) that may not let Brian Schottenheimer "establish the run" the way he wants. Bellofatto also noted the upgraded receiver room with George Pickens opposite CeeDee Lamb and a pass-catching backfield option, which collectively raises Prescott’s ceiling in neutral and negative game scripts. Assuming health, she believes 3,800 yards is a reachable floor, making the over the sharper side.

Claudia Bellofatto said the +600 price on Dallas to win the NFC East is a hard pass. She framed it as a talent gap issue: Dallas ignored premium backs like Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Josh Jacobs and instead rolled the dice on an injured Javonte Williams and 28-year-old Miles Sanders. Compared to Philadelphia (two WR1-caliber pass catchers and a top-tier offensive line) and Washington (Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, plus a more complete roster), Bellofatto sees the Cowboys lagging in both offensive upside and defensive reliability. Dallas ranked bottom-five in defense last season, and although new coordinator Matt Eberflus should improve the unit, she does not believe that closes the gap on either divisional rival. With those roster concerns and the front office failing to add blue-chip pieces, she thinks the +600 number is simply dead money.

Claudia Bellofatto likes Jonathan Taylor to go over his 1,250.5-yard rushing line. Taylor ripped off four straight 100-yard games to close 2023 and still finished top-10 in yards despite logging only 14 appearances because of a high-ankle sprain. His 4.7 YPC was his best mark since 2021, and Indianapolis ran at the league’s highest rate— a tendency Bellofatto expects to remain. With Anthony Richardson back under center to force defensive conflict read lanes and an upgraded pass-catching group keeping boxes honest, Bellofatto believes Taylor can cash this prop even if he misses a couple of games.

Claudia Bellofatto advised passing on Indianapolis at roughly +300 to win the AFC South. She argued Houston is a clear step ahead: C.J. Stroud is past the sophomore slump, the Texans’ offensive line and skill corps were reinforced with early-round picks, and DeMeco Ryans returns his defensive core. By contrast, the Colts still face questions at quarterback health, a bottom-10 line that lost veterans, and a deep but injury-prone receiver room. Bellofatto concluded Indy belongs slightly ahead of Jacksonville but not close enough to Houston to justify the current price.

Claudia Bellofatto advised taking Atlanta’s regular-season win total over 7.5 even at the juiced –145, provided bettors shop for a better price. She reminded listeners that the Falcons lost six of their final eight games last year yet still cleared eight wins, going 12–0 in one-score games. With Michael Penix Jr. starting from Week 1, Raheem Morris in his second season, and one of the league’s easiest schedules, she believes eight wins is the floor. Bellofatto dislikes laying –150 juice but thinks the statistical and situational factors make the over a sound wager.

Claudia Bellofatto agreed the Falcons can win the NFC South and said she is finally willing to invest money in the division. Her optimism centers on a top-five receiver (Drake London), an elite pass-catching back (Bijan Robinson), and an offensive line that returns every starter but the center spot. She noted that Atlanta ranked sandwiched between Philadelphia and Minnesota in offensive DVOA, then emphasized the fourth-easiest 2024 schedule. Although she still worries about the defense, Bellofatto thinks the offensive ceiling and favorable slate justify grabbing the current division price before it shortens.

Claudia Bellofatto is taking Topuria to win in under 1.5 rounds at +120, trusting the Georgian’s own prediction of a first-round finish. Bellofatto reminded listeners that Topuria just iced Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway in consecutive bouts after publicly calling his shots, and she sees the same ‘speak it, do it’ pattern here. She downplayed Oliveira’s record-setting submission tally, noting that BJJ usually bailed him out but will not negate Topuria’s rare blend of one-punch power and technical boxing. Whether it comes via a precision hook or ground-and-pound after an early knockdown, Bellofatto believes the challenger’s pace and accuracy overwhelm a hittable Oliveira before the halfway mark of Round 2, making the plus-money clock prop the best way to attack a lopsided money-line.

Claudia Bellofatto played Alexandre Pantoja inside the distance at +120, calling it the best way to capture all of the champ’s win conditions. She framed the bout as striker vs grappler but believes Pantoja’s relentless back-takes (2.1 TDs per 15, 46 % control rate), granite chin and bottomless cardio eventually melt Kai Kara-France. KKF owns solid 84 % takedown defense, yet Bellofatto noted he slows after extended grappling exchanges and has been finished in two of his last four. Meanwhile, Pantoja has openly promised to showcase his own power, giving bettors knockout equity in addition to his trademark rear-naked choke. With KKF dropped in three of his last five and historically vulnerable once fatigue sets in, Bellofatto sees a late RNC or ground-and-pound TKO as the most likely outcome and calls the +120 number "a gift on a champion who almost always hunts finishes."

Claudia Bellofatto hammered Jack Hermansson +3.5 rounds at even money, arguing the spread is tailor-made for a veteran who rarely gets finished. She pointed to Hermansson’s last outing—five high-pace rounds with Joe Pyfer—where he absorbed 120 significant strikes, stuffed 80 % of takedowns and still closed strongest, proving his gas tank is fine after a year layoff. Bellofatto expects Gregory Rodrigues to “burn out” just as he did versus Cannonier and others: the Brazilian starts like a bonfire, but his output drops sharply once he’s forced to shoot or absorb calf-kicks. Hermansson has a two-inch reach advantage, a quick jab, slick lateral movement and opportunistic top control that should bank at least one round. That means the +3.5 cashes on any 29-28 scorecard—and Bellofatto even sprinkled a late submission because a gassed Rodrigues leaves his neck in transitions. Spread first, sprinkle finish, but fade Rodrigues’ cardio either way.

Claudia Bellofatto is backing Joshua Van on the money-line after the market flipped from –250 to slight favorite status for Brandon Royval and then settled near pick-em. Bellofatto believes the new price is a discount on Van’s upside: he is 7-1 overall, 4-0 since his lone defeat, and lands an eye-popping 8.2 significant strikes per minute. Royval owns the size and experience edges, but Bellofatto flagged two red flags—Royval repeatedly mentioning a recent concussion that forced him out of his last booking and his public desire to move up in weight—which she feels hint at distraction or lingering health issues. Meanwhile Van’s willingness to accept a short-notice fight only weeks after a third-round TKO of Bruno Silva underscores his youth, confidence, and activity (four fights in the past 12 months). Bellofatto summed it up as youth, output, and momentum versus a potentially compromised veteran and is willing to ride the hot hand at plus money or near-even odds.

Claudia Bellofatto argued the Commanders should not be priced inside the top-five favorites to win the NFC. She noted how active the conference was this offseason, highlighting Minnesota’s star-studded roster, Green Bay’s offensive depth, Tampa Bay’s bolstered receiving corps, and intriguing upside plays like Chicago and Seattle. Given that depth, she slots Washington closer to 6th or 7th in the pecking order and believes the current odds overstate their conference ceiling.

Claudia Bellofatto leaned to the under 9.5 wins at even money for Washington. She pointed out that the Commanders soared past last year’s 6.5-win number only because they lived on the edge, going 8-1 in one-score games against the league’s second-easiest schedule. This year they face the 8th-hardest slate, with five primetime and 10 national windows that magnify every weakness. Bellofatto expects some sophomore regression from Jaden Daniels despite the upgraded tackles (Laremy Tunsil and rookie Josh Conerly Jr.) and reminded viewers that Washington owns the NFL’s oldest starting roster and a defense still full of question marks. The club managed just one win in five tries versus playoff teams last season—and that came against Philadelphia after Jalen Hurts got hurt. All of that makes reaching 10 victories a tough ask in her eyes.

Bellofatto called the 975.5 receiving-yard prop for Tyreek Hill a "buy-the-dip" opportunity. Hill posted 1,799 yards last season and has never failed to clear 960, even in his statistical low point. Claudia argued the number bakes in too much Tua-injury discount. Even if Zach Wilson—or eventual rookie Quinn Ewers—takes snaps, Hill’s yards-after-catch ability and heavy target share should still push him past 1,000. She prefers this prop to betting Tua’s passing total because Hill can get there regardless of quarterback play.

Claudia Bellofatto leaned under 3,600.5 passing yards for Tua Tagovailoa because she is not convinced he stays healthy or protected. Left-tackle stalwart Terron Armstead is gone, replaced by rookie Patrick Paul, leaving Tagovailoa’s blind side to an unproven blocker. The quarterback has logged only one fully healthy season; when he missed time the Miami offense cratered from top-two to bottom-10 efficiency. Bellofatto does not want to guess on the exact number of games he will play—she would rather short the yardage total than gamble on his durability.

Claudia Bellofatto would rather take plus-money on the Dolphins going over 8.5 wins than lay –185 on the under, but she stressed Tua Tagovailoa’s health is the entire bet. Miami managed eight victories last year even with Tua missing six games and opening 2-6, and this season six of the first eight opponents were non-playoff teams, giving the club a soft launch. She also noted that four of the top five draft picks went to the trenches, addressing pass protection and pass-rush concerns. The lingering red flag: Miami is 1-10 versus winning teams over the last two seasons. Bellofatto still thinks nine wins is attainable, but everything hinges on Tagovailoa staying upright.