Claudia Bellofatto is taking Topuria to win in under 1.5 rounds at +120, trusting the Georgian’s own prediction of a first-round finish. Bellofatto reminded listeners that Topuria just iced Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway in consecutive bouts after publicly calling his shots, and she sees the same ‘speak it, do it’ pattern here. She downplayed Oliveira’s record-setting submission tally, noting that BJJ usually bailed him out but will not negate Topuria’s rare blend of one-punch power and technical boxing. Whether it comes via a precision hook or ground-and-pound after an early knockdown, Bellofatto believes the challenger’s pace and accuracy overwhelm a hittable Oliveira before the halfway mark of Round 2, making the plus-money clock prop the best way to attack a lopsided money-line.

Claudia Bellofatto played Alexandre Pantoja inside the distance at +120, calling it the best way to capture all of the champ’s win conditions. She framed the bout as striker vs grappler but believes Pantoja’s relentless back-takes (2.1 TDs per 15, 46 % control rate), granite chin and bottomless cardio eventually melt Kai Kara-France. KKF owns solid 84 % takedown defense, yet Bellofatto noted he slows after extended grappling exchanges and has been finished in two of his last four. Meanwhile, Pantoja has openly promised to showcase his own power, giving bettors knockout equity in addition to his trademark rear-naked choke. With KKF dropped in three of his last five and historically vulnerable once fatigue sets in, Bellofatto sees a late RNC or ground-and-pound TKO as the most likely outcome and calls the +120 number "a gift on a champion who almost always hunts finishes."

Claudia Bellofatto hammered Jack Hermansson +3.5 rounds at even money, arguing the spread is tailor-made for a veteran who rarely gets finished. She pointed to Hermansson’s last outing—five high-pace rounds with Joe Pyfer—where he absorbed 120 significant strikes, stuffed 80 % of takedowns and still closed strongest, proving his gas tank is fine after a year layoff. Bellofatto expects Gregory Rodrigues to “burn out” just as he did versus Cannonier and others: the Brazilian starts like a bonfire, but his output drops sharply once he’s forced to shoot or absorb calf-kicks. Hermansson has a two-inch reach advantage, a quick jab, slick lateral movement and opportunistic top control that should bank at least one round. That means the +3.5 cashes on any 29-28 scorecard—and Bellofatto even sprinkled a late submission because a gassed Rodrigues leaves his neck in transitions. Spread first, sprinkle finish, but fade Rodrigues’ cardio either way.

Claudia Bellofatto is backing Joshua Van on the money-line after the market flipped from –250 to slight favorite status for Brandon Royval and then settled near pick-em. Bellofatto believes the new price is a discount on Van’s upside: he is 7-1 overall, 4-0 since his lone defeat, and lands an eye-popping 8.2 significant strikes per minute. Royval owns the size and experience edges, but Bellofatto flagged two red flags—Royval repeatedly mentioning a recent concussion that forced him out of his last booking and his public desire to move up in weight—which she feels hint at distraction or lingering health issues. Meanwhile Van’s willingness to accept a short-notice fight only weeks after a third-round TKO of Bruno Silva underscores his youth, confidence, and activity (four fights in the past 12 months). Bellofatto summed it up as youth, output, and momentum versus a potentially compromised veteran and is willing to ride the hot hand at plus money or near-even odds.

Claudia Bellofatto argued the Commanders should not be priced inside the top-five favorites to win the NFC. She noted how active the conference was this offseason, highlighting Minnesota’s star-studded roster, Green Bay’s offensive depth, Tampa Bay’s bolstered receiving corps, and intriguing upside plays like Chicago and Seattle. Given that depth, she slots Washington closer to 6th or 7th in the pecking order and believes the current odds overstate their conference ceiling.

Claudia Bellofatto leaned to the under 9.5 wins at even money for Washington. She pointed out that the Commanders soared past last year’s 6.5-win number only because they lived on the edge, going 8-1 in one-score games against the league’s second-easiest schedule. This year they face the 8th-hardest slate, with five primetime and 10 national windows that magnify every weakness. Bellofatto expects some sophomore regression from Jaden Daniels despite the upgraded tackles (Laremy Tunsil and rookie Josh Conerly Jr.) and reminded viewers that Washington owns the NFL’s oldest starting roster and a defense still full of question marks. The club managed just one win in five tries versus playoff teams last season—and that came against Philadelphia after Jalen Hurts got hurt. All of that makes reaching 10 victories a tough ask in her eyes.

Bellofatto called the 975.5 receiving-yard prop for Tyreek Hill a "buy-the-dip" opportunity. Hill posted 1,799 yards last season and has never failed to clear 960, even in his statistical low point. Claudia argued the number bakes in too much Tua-injury discount. Even if Zach Wilson—or eventual rookie Quinn Ewers—takes snaps, Hill’s yards-after-catch ability and heavy target share should still push him past 1,000. She prefers this prop to betting Tua’s passing total because Hill can get there regardless of quarterback play.

Claudia Bellofatto leaned under 3,600.5 passing yards for Tua Tagovailoa because she is not convinced he stays healthy or protected. Left-tackle stalwart Terron Armstead is gone, replaced by rookie Patrick Paul, leaving Tagovailoa’s blind side to an unproven blocker. The quarterback has logged only one fully healthy season; when he missed time the Miami offense cratered from top-two to bottom-10 efficiency. Bellofatto does not want to guess on the exact number of games he will play—she would rather short the yardage total than gamble on his durability.

Claudia Bellofatto would rather take plus-money on the Dolphins going over 8.5 wins than lay –185 on the under, but she stressed Tua Tagovailoa’s health is the entire bet. Miami managed eight victories last year even with Tua missing six games and opening 2-6, and this season six of the first eight opponents were non-playoff teams, giving the club a soft launch. She also noted that four of the top five draft picks went to the trenches, addressing pass protection and pass-rush concerns. The lingering red flag: Miami is 1-10 versus winning teams over the last two seasons. Bellofatto still thinks nine wins is attainable, but everything hinges on Tagovailoa staying upright.