For a prop, Williams took Corey Conners Top 10 at +350. Conners posted T19 and T10 finishes here the past two years and ranks inside the Top 20 in SG: Ball-Striking over his last 24 rounds. Over the past year he’s 2nd in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green during moderate winds, convincing Williams that the upside justifies the number.

Williams also played Ryan Fox at +7000 for first-round leader. Fox is 4th in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds and rates positively in windy conditions. Williams loves the bomb-and-gouge profile for an explosive single round even if Fox can be inconsistent over 72 holes.

Williams’ long-shot is Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen at +9000. The 24-year-old finished T12 at the U.S. Open and T14 at the BMW International. Over his last 24 rounds he ranks 7th in SG: Ball-Striking and 5th in SG: Approach while sitting inside the Top 20 tee-to-green in windy conditions. Even though he lacks elite distance, he’s 8th in proximity from 200+ yards, making Williams willing to gamble at 90-1.

Cody Williams went back to the well with Tommy Fleetwood at +2200. Fleetwood owns a runner-up and two additional Top-5s at Renaissance Club and is gaining 1.03 strokes per round with his ball-striking over the last 12 rounds. Williams highlighted Fleetwood’s stellar tee-to-green numbers in moderate wind and a dialed-in short game, believing redemption is coming after June’s Travelers heartbreak.

Cody Williams labeled Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen a live long-shot at +9000 on FanDuel. He cited the 26-year-old’s recent T12 at the U.S. Open and T14 at the BMW International, plus elite recent metrics: 7th in SG ball striking, 5th in approach, 9th around the green and 11th tee-to-green in windy conditions over the last year. While the Dane is not especially long, Williams argued that actually fits the Renaissance Club where he ranks 8th in proximity from 200+ yards and can lean on precision more than raw power. Williams admitted the debutant status makes it speculative but believes the combination of sustained form, wind success, and a course that accentuates his strengths creates real upset potential at 90-1.

Cody Williams recommended backing Corey Conners at +6000 on Bet365 despite concerns about his around-the-green play and average length. Williams pointed out Conners ranks 13th in strokes-gained ball striking and 18th in approach over the last 24 rounds, is second in the entire field in SG tee-to-green in moderate winds over the past year, and sits inside the top 40 in par-4 birdie-or-better rate. The Canadian brings proven links pedigree with T19 and T10 finishes at the Renaissance Club the past two years plus three top-30s at recent Open Championships. Although Conners withdrew from the U.S. Open, Williams expects him to be healthy and sees the statistical fit and 60-1 price as too tempting to pass up.

Cody Williams said Tommy Fleetwood is his favorite outright bet at +2200 on DraftKings because the Englishman profiles perfectly for the Renaissance Club’s hybrid-links test. Williams noted Fleetwood has gained 1.03 strokes per round over his last 12 despite a rare MC at the U.S. Open, owns three finishes of T16 or better in his last four worldwide starts (runner-up at Travelers, T4 Charles Schwab), ranks 17th in strokes-gained tee-to-green in 10-17 mph winds over the past year, and is a plus scorer on par-4s. Course history is elite: top-6 at this event in 2023 and 2022 and runner-up in 2020, giving him top-3 total strokes gained at the Renaissance Club among all entrants. Williams also highlighted Fleetwood’s strong short-game form and multiple European Tour wins as further evidence he can finally lift a trophy on U.S. soil-caliber fields, making him a buy at 22-1.

Cody Williams took Kevin Roy Top 20 at +250, citing Roy’s consecutive T8 and T18 finishes while gaining 1.8 strokes ball-striking per round in both events. Roy pairs above-average length with strong fairway accuracy and sits inside the Top 45 in proximity from both 50-100 and 100-150 yards. Bentgrass is his best putting surface, so Williams thinks the recent form plus surface edge makes a Top-20 ticket a smart bankroll builder.

Cody Williams is rolling the dice on Andrew Putnam at +7500. Williams emphasized Putnam’s precision approach game—Top 35 in SG: Approach over his last 24 rounds and 16th in proximity from 100-150 yards—plus elite accuracy (5th in Good Drive Rate) and Bentgrass putting (28th in SG: Putting on Bent). On a course where irons and putting rule, Williams believes that balanced profile gives Putnam a real path to an upset victory at huge odds.

Cody Williams urged bettors to include Rico Hoey at +9000 on their outright cards, noting Detroit Golf Club suits Hoey’s skill set perfectly. Hoey debuted here last year with a T6 despite actually losing strokes off the tee; now he enters ranking 19th in SG: Off-the-Tee and fifth in Good Drive Percentage over his last 24 rounds. Even better, he sits eighth in SG: Putting on bent/poa over the past 36 rounds and fourth in Birdie or Better rate over the last 24, metrics Williams highlighted as critical in the low-scoring "putting contest" environment DGC often produces. With proven success in easy-scoring conditions and a weaponized driver now firing, Williams believes Hoey’s win probability is far greater than the implied 1.1 percent baked into 90-1 odds.

Cody Williams recommended taking a dice-roll on Emiliano Grillo at +7000, arguing no one in the field is striking the ball better right now. Grillo tops the model’s SG: Approach rankings and is sixth in both SG: Total on comp courses (DGC, TPC Twin Cities, Silverado, Craig Ranch) and Proximity from 100-150 yards, while ranking ninth in Good Drive Percentage. He has finished T24 or better in four straight starts—including a top-20 at the U.S. Open—while gaining 1.75 strokes per round with ball-striking over his last 24 rounds. Williams acknowledged Grillo is losing strokes with the putter, a concern in what can devolve into a putting contest, but maintained the 70-1 price more than compensates for that risk given his current tee-to-green ceiling.

Cody Williams said Ben Griffin is his favorite outright bet at +2200 on FanDuel for the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Williams pointed to Griffin’s scorching five-tournament run—win at Colonial, runner-up at Memorial, T10 at the U.S. Open, and two other top-14 finishes—as proof the 27-year-old has "leveled up." The numbers back it up: over his last 12 rounds Griffin is gaining 0.53 strokes off the tee and 0.84 strokes on approach, a massive turnaround from his previous two Rocket Mortgage starts where he actually lost strokes in both categories. With the Detroit Golf Club historically rewarding hot ball-strikers who can go low (four of six winners have reached −23 or better) and this year’s field notably weaker than recent majors and signature events, Williams believes Griffin’s improved tee-to-green profile and streaking putter give him legitimate win equity well above the implied probability of 4.3 percent.

Cody Williams played Luke Clanton +225 for a Top-20, explaining that the rookie ranks Top-15 in SG: Total on comp courses, 11th in Bogey Avoidance, and no worse than 36th in any ball-striking or scoring metric he modeled over the last 36 rounds. Williams sees limited win equity but a strong chance Clanton grinds out another steady finish on a shorter course that still rewards bombers.

Cody Williams rolled the dice on Ryan Fox +6600 for FRL, pointing to Fox ranking 4th in the field in SG: Approach and 3rd in proximity from 100-150 yards over the past 24 rounds. He also sits inside the Top-10 in Birdie or Better rate. Williams admitted doubts about four-round sustainability but loves the profile for a single-day spike on a course where low scores are common on Thursday.

Cody Williams highlighted Bud Cauley’s renaissance, noting 0.83 strokes gained ball-striking per round over his last 24 rounds, Top-15 Birdie or Better rate, and Top-20 proximity from 100-150 yards. After podiums at Colonial (3rd) and T6 at TPC Sawgrass—both comps to River Highlands—Williams sees +10000 as the right time to ride the form.

Cody Williams grabbed Viktor Hovland at +3300, pointing out that three of the last five Travelers winners logged a Top-15 the previous week at the U.S. Open—exactly where Hovland finished. Hovland gained 1.3 strokes per round on approach at Oakmont and was dominant tee-to-green, losing ground only with the putter. Williams expects those ball-striking numbers to translate on a 6,800-yard layout where scoring opportunities abound if wedges stay hot.

Williams played Ryan Fox at 66-1 for first-round leader because the New Zealander ranks 4th in SG: Approach, 3rd in proximity 100-150 yards, and Top-10 in Birdie or Better rate over his last 24 rounds. Williams doubts Fox sustains that for four days but likes his chances to spike early in a projected low-scoring opener.

Cody Williams fired on Bud Cauley at 100-1, citing a recent 0.83 strokes-gained ball-striking average over 24 rounds plus Top-15 ranks in Birdie or Better and Top-20 proximity from 100-150 yards. Cauley already logged solo 3rd at Colonial and T6 at Sawgrass—two corollary tracks—so Williams believes River Highlands is another perfect spot for the resurgent veteran.

Cody Williams grabbed Viktor Hovland at 33-1, noting that three of the past five Travelers champions had just posted a Top-15 at the U.S. Open. Hovland gained 1.3 strokes per round on approach at Oakmont and was "dynamite tee-to-green" overall; Williams thinks those ball-striking numbers will translate on a course where birdies come in bunches if the putter cooperates.

Williams highlighted Bud Cauley as a +10000 flier on BetMGM, citing a comeback season tailored to TPC River Highlands. Cauley finished solo 3rd at Colonial, gaining 1.19 strokes tee-to-green, and grabbed T6 at the Players on another Pete Dye layout. Over his last 24 rounds he’s +0.83 in ball-striking, sits 12th in the field for birdie-or-better percentage the last 36 rounds, and ranks top-20 in proximity from 100-150 yards—an iron window critical on the 6,841-yard par-70. Despite not teeing it up here since 2020, Williams believes the recent data and form on similar tracks make Cauley a live long shot to crack the leaderboard or better.

Williams recommended Viktor Hovland at +3300 on BetMGM, noting a familiar pattern: three of the last five Travelers winners were top-15 at the U.S. Open the week before, a box Hovland checks after contending at Oakmont. Although his Travelers résumé shows only one top-15 (2020) and a T20 last year when he lost strokes on approach, Hovland has gained on approach in every start since the Sentry and has topped 0.66 SG per round in three of his last four events. Williams believes the return of elite ball-striking and gentler bent/Poa greens will allow Hovland to convert more looks and ride form into a possible signature-event victory.

Cody Williams backed Patrick Cantlay at +2200 on FanDuel, saying his profile perfectly matches TPC River Highlands. Cantlay ranks second in strokes-gained total in easy scoring conditions and fourth on comparable short courses per Williams’ model. Course history is stellar—finishes of T5, T4, T13, T13 and T11 the last five years. Recent form is quietly solid despite a U.S. Open MC: T13 at the RBC Heritage, T4 at the Truist, and T12 at the Memorial. Williams emphasized Cantlay’s consistently strong approach play and his ability to capitalize when birdies are available, calling the Travelers "one of the Cantlay spots you simply have to bet."

At a juicy +10000 on BetMGM, Williams identified Bud Cauley as his sleeper pick, pointing to a renaissance season highlighted by solo 3rd at Colonial (1.19 strokes tee-to-green) and T6 at the Players on another Pete Dye track. Over his last 24 rounds Cauley is gaining 0.83 strokes ball-striking, ranks 12th in birdie-or-better rate across 36 rounds, and sits inside the top-20 in proximity from 100-150 yards—an iron distance that shows up repeatedly at the sub-6,900-yard TPC River Highlands. Williams’s model, which allocates 20% to approach, 20% to birdie rate and a combined 25% to easy-scoring and comp-course performance, flags Cauley as a sneaky course fit despite not teeing it up here since 2020. With only 72 players in the signature-event field and winning numbers expected to push beyond 20-under, Williams believes Cauley’s scoring ceiling is worth a flutter at triple-digit odds.

Williams advised grabbing Viktor Hovland at +3300 on BetMGM, noting that three of the last five Travelers champions logged top-15 finishes at the U.S. Open the week prior, a box Hovland just checked at Oakmont. The Norwegian has gained strokes in every event since the Sentry and is back to piling up approach numbers, picking up 0.66 strokes or more per round in three of his last four starts. Although his Travelers resume is light—only one top-15 and a T20 last year when he actually lost strokes with irons—Williams expects regression to the positive on TPC River Highlands’ receptive bent/Poa greens. Hovland sits 5th in the model’s strokes-gained approach weight and 8th in birdie-or-better over 36 rounds, exactly the combination Williams believes is required to keep pace in a tournament that has finished 20-under or better two years running.

Cody Williams recommended betting Patrick Cantlay outright at +2200 on FanDuel, arguing that both recent form and course history line up almost too neatly for the eight-time PGA Tour winner. Cantlay shook off a missed cut at Oakmont with a run of T13 (RBC Heritage), T4 (Truist) and T12 (Memorial), gaining strokes on approach in all three. TPC River Highlands is one of his personal honey holes: finishes of T5, T4, T13, T13 and T11 the last five years. In Williams’s key-stat model Cantlay ranks 2nd in strokes-gained total in easy scoring conditions and 4th in strokes-gained total on comps to River Highlands—metrics that matter because winners here routinely push past 20-under. Add in his usual top-10 proximity numbers from 100-150 yards and a strong bent/Poa putting track record and Williams believes the California native is perfectly positioned to convert chances on a 72-man birdie fest.

Doubling down, Williams took Conners +400 for a Top-10. He reiterated Conners’ elite driving accuracy, year-long ball-striking form and improved putting on fast surfaces, believing those traits position him for another high finish even if the outright ticket falls short.

Williams grabbed Hovland 50-1 for FRL, reasoning that Oakmont’s ball-striking test aligns perfectly with the Norwegian’s ceiling. He admits Hovland may mix in a blow-up round later, but notes that the improved around-the-green play and tall rough that levels chipping skill could allow Viktor to fire something in the mid-60s on Thursday.

Cody Williams doubled down on English at 100-1, emphasizing that he ranks 2nd in the entire field in SG: Putting on fast greens over his last 36 rounds and owns top-tier driving accuracy. With recent major finishes of T12 (Masters) and T2 (PGA) plus a reputation for thriving on difficult layouts, Williams believes English has the tools to surprise late on Sunday.

Cody Williams grabbed Conners at 60-1, stressing that the Canadian ranks among the tour’s most accurate drivers and remains a "ball-striking stalwart." Williams likes that Conners has unexpectedly thrived with the putter on slick surfaces and that his tidy profile already produced a T9 at last year’s U.S. Open. With Oakmont expected to play firmer and faster than most majors, Williams sees Conners’ steady tee-to-green game and comfort on fast greens as undervalued upside.

Cody Williams fired on Viktor Hovland First-Round Leader at +5000 (DraftKings). Williams said Oakmont is a pure ball-striker’s exam, tailor-made for Hovland’s best self. He acknowledged Hovland’s season has been uneven, yet noted signs of life with the short game and argued the thick rough could level the around-the-green playing field. If Hovland is ‘dialed with driver and approaches’ for 18 holes, Williams sees 50-to-1 as a strong value bet for an early statement round.

Cody Williams doubled down on Corey Conners by adding a Top-10 ticket at +400 on BetMGM. Williams loves Conners’ elite driving accuracy and overall ball-striking, traits that mitigate Oakmont’s brutal rough and brutal greens. The tout also cited Conners’ ‘sneaky’ gains with the putter on fast surfaces and reminded readers the Canadian cracked last year’s U.S. Open with a T9. With soft conditions likely limiting roll-out, Williams expects Conners to pepper fairways, hit a ton of greens, and cash the 4-to-1 Top-10 ticket even if he doesn’t take the trophy.

Cody Williams recommended a Top-20 bet on Chris Gotterup at +275 despite potential fatigue from Monday’s 36-hole U.S. Open qualifier. He cited Gotterup’s torrid recent stretch—no finish worse than T28 in five starts, four of them T18 or better. Over the last 16 rounds Gotterup ranks 1st in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green, sits Top-10 in driving distance and Top-30 in SG: Approach. Around-the-green play has been a strength, and Williams thinks that can offset a streaky putter on Osprey Valley’s relatively benign surfaces.

Cody Williams grabbed Si Woo Kim +4000 to win. Kim owns four straight top-20 finishes (T8 Quail Hollow, T17 Truist, T15 Byron Nelson, T8 RBC Heritage) and has gained at least 3.2 strokes on approach in all three most recent starts. Williams emphasized Kim’s accuracy off the tee and vastly improved short game—traits that historically decide Colonial. Given that profile and current form, Williams expects Kim to contend deep into Sunday at a bomber-unfriendly track.

Cody Williams sprinkled Ryan Gerard Top-30 at +150, arguing the market is ignoring Gerard’s recent surge—three top-12 finishes in four starts prior to last week. On a short course that rewards short-game artistry and solid approach numbers, Williams thinks Gerard cracking the top half of the signature-event field is well within range.

Cody Williams took Russell Henley +3500 FRL, pointing to the fit: a relatively short course emphasizing approach and short game. Henley gained at least 0.38 strokes on approach, around the green and with the putter over his last 20 rounds and finished T8 at RBC Heritage—another obvious comp. Williams expects that balance to translate to a low opener.

Cody Williams loves Ryan Gerard at +12000, arguing the 7,100-yard par-70 suits the youngster’s deft short-game and efficient iron play. Gerard missed the cut last week but logged three top-12 finishes in his previous four starts. Williams thinks Wissahickon is his best fit yet and worth a flyer.

Cody Williams pegged Corey Conners at +3000, citing a "complete game" perfectly tailored to Wissahickon. Over his last 20 rounds Conners ranks 4th in SG: Tee-to-Green thanks to accurate driving and pinpoint irons, while sitting 10th in scrambling over the last 16 rounds—critical on a green complex loaded with bunkers and subtle slopes. Williams believes that all-around profile gives the Canadian real winning upside in Philly.

Cody Williams fired on Jake Knapp at +6000, framing the rookie as an ideal fit for a "big ballpark" where distance is rewarded. Knapp—fresh off an eighth-place finish here last year and a strong Zurich Classic performance with Frankie Capan—has gained strokes on approach in eight of his last ten measured events, suggesting improved iron play to pair with his elite length. Williams believes the combination of a soft fairway-penalty profile and reachable par 5s creates a ceiling outcome for Knapp that the 60-1 number fails to capture.

Cody Williams highlights Viktor Hovland as an intriguing outright option, noting that although he was somewhat inconsistent at the Masters, Hovland has notably gained strokes on approach for six straight events. Additionally, he's showing encouraging improvement in his putting and around-the-green performance. Given his elite iron play from 125-200 yards and a recent Valspar victory, Williams considers Hovland's game and trajectory perfect for Harbour Town this week.

Cody Williams takes Steven Fisk as a top-20 prop bet (+450), highlighting Fisk’s impressive recent statistical profile. Over the last 12 rounds, Fisk ranks seventh in strokes-gained approach and tee-to-green, second in Bogey Avoidance, and ninth in GIR among this field. Despite missing the cut in Houston, Williams believes the accuracy and approach skillset are an ideal fit for TPC San Antonio, making Fisk appealing as a longshot top-20 play.

Cody Williams identifies Gary Woodland as a valuable outright play due to Woodland's impressive recent tee-to-green form, gaining over 5.0 strokes T2G at both Houston and Phoenix. Woodland placed a strong T21 in Phoenix and finished Houston firing a final-round 62, showcasing excellent ball striking. Williams also highlights Woodland's strong previous finishes at TPC San Antonio—T6 and T8 in his past two visits—as evidence he's well-suited for the course.

Cody Williams is backing Min Woo Lee at +3500. While Memorial Park will be his tournament debut, Williams loves the fit due to Lee's power off the tee combined with his excellent short game—ranking top 10 in strokes gained around-the-green and scrambling over the last 24 rounds. Though approach numbers aren’t consistently elite, Min Woo Lee recently gained strokes on approach at marquee venues like The Players and Pebble Beach, giving Williams confidence he can translate this form successfully in Houston.