Colby Marchio backed Kerry Carpenter to homer at +360 against the Astros, arguing the matchup with Ronel Blanco tilts heavily in the Tigers slugger’s favor. Carpenter is mired in a four-game hitless funk and has not gone deep since April 14, yet he still carries a .271 average, five homers and a .782 OPS. Blanco brings a 5.01 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and relies on his fastball 40% of the time; half of his pitches grade above league-average, but the fastball has been punished all season. Carpenter has historically mashed heaters and grades well versus every pitch in Blanco’s mix. He owns the second-highest hitter rating in this matchup, and across 39 elite ratings he has homered 20% of the time (two homers in his last ten such games). Slotted atop Detroit’s order, Carpenter should see extra plate appearances, and Marchio believes that volume plus the friendly pitching profile makes +360 a mis-priced number.

Colby Marchio said Jordan Westburg is worth betting at +680 to homer against the Yankees tonight. Westburg owns the second-highest hitter grade on Batters-Box.com, and when he receives an “elite” home rating he has gone deep in 3 of 11 games (27%). Overall he has homered in 4 of 30 elite ratings (13%). Marchio noted the matchup is ideal: rookie right-hander Will Warren carries the day’s fifth-worst pitcher grade with a 4.79 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and the slate’s highest hard-contact rate (46%). Warren grades poorly in wOBA, ISO suppression, hard-contact avoidance and ground-ball rate. If Westburg’s hamstring is healthy enough for the lineup, Marchio expects him to punish one of Warren’s inevitable mistakes, making the nearly 7-to-1 price a strong value play.