Conner Allen suggested sprinkling on Tyler Warren at 40-1 because the rookie’s do-everything skill set could rack up highlight-reel counting stats. Warren lined up at wide receiver, in-line tight end, slot, quarterback and running back for more than 50 collegiate snaps each, and Allen expects his NFL staff to deploy a Taysom Hill-style package that lets him throw, run and catch. If Warren can pile up 10–15 total touchdowns across multiple roles, Allen believes the narrative of unique versatility combined with raw production could capture voters’ imaginations despite middling quarterback play around him.

Conner Allen advised taking a stab at Trevor Lawrence at 50-1 for MVP, insisting bettors are over-reacting to 2024’s hot-and-cold tape. Allen pointed out that Jacksonville stole two explosive pass-catchers—rookie burner Brian Thomas Jr. and two-way phenom Travis Hunter—then imported Liam Coen to infuse Kentucky-style vertical concepts that accentuate Lawrence’s deep-ball accuracy. In Doug Pederson’s last two seasons the Jags already ranked top-eight in early-down pass rate; Allen expects that to climb further with improved protection after re-signing both starting tackles. If Lawrence pairs 4,700 yards and 35 TDs with an AFC South title, voters will frame it as a third-year leap reminiscent of Josh Allen’s 2020 campaign. Allen called the 50-1 number “five weeks from extinction” once preseason clips of Hunter mossing corners hit social media.

Conner Allen recommended Dak Prescott at 45-1 for MVP, arguing that Dallas’ roster construction all but forces a throw-first attack. The Cowboys replaced their departed bellcow with a committee of Miles Sanders and Javonte Williams, leaving virtually no running identity. Meanwhile the front office finally added a legitimate perimeter threat in George Pickens to loosen double-coverage on CeeDee Lamb. Allen noted Prescott is already 10-1 to lead the league in passing yards; pairing that statistical ceiling with an NFC East title would put him squarely in voter crosshairs. He expects Mike McCarthy’s offense to finish top-three in pass rate over expectation, which would give Prescott a realistic shot at 5,000 yards and 38-plus touchdowns—historically MVP-level counting stats at the helm of a 12-win contender. At 45-1, Allen called the number “flat-out wrong” relative to other veteran pocket passers in the 20-30-1 tier.

Conner Allen said he is leaning toward the Patriots under 8.5 wins (-120) because the number bakes in an optimistic best-case scenario. He acknowledged the roster is improved—Drake Maye flashed competence, the line was reinforced and the defense spent big—but questioned whether the upgrades translate into nine victories. Allen called Stefon Diggs “probably cooked,” labeled the pass-catcher group merely passable, and reminded listeners that Rhamondre Stevenson put the ball on the ground seven times last year. The AFC East still runs through Buffalo, and a healthy Tua would make Miami competitive. With a schedule that features Kansas City, Baltimore and a road trip to Green Bay, Allen sees 6–8 wins as the realistic band and thinks the current price represents the absolute ceiling.

Conner Allen advised grabbing both the “fewest wins” prop and the under 5.5-win total on the Jets before the market adjusts. Allen laid out a laundry list of problems: Justin Fields is being asked to survive 17 games behind a middling offensive line, the defense cratered after Robert Saleh’s departure and just lost corner DJ Reed, and the pass rush has no proven finisher. Offensively it is basically Garrett Wilson and replacement-level receivers in a run-first scheme that plans to shorten games—a strategy that limits comeback potential. Allen doubts new head coach Aaron Glenn can scheme around so many talent gaps and projected New York to finish in the 2–4-win range, making both bets live from day one of camp.

Conner Allen predicted Jaxon Smith-Njigba could post top-five fantasy WR numbers in 2025 now that Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are gone and an aging Cooper Kupp is miscast outside. Allen expects Seattle to feature JSN in the slot and movable-chess-piece roles, projecting a 27-30 % target share on route participation near 100 %. He noted JSN’s 2.29 yards per route run as a rookie already beat the league average by 42 % and that new OC Ryan Grubb’s uptempo, RPO-heavy scheme produced a 64 % slot-target rate at Washington. With little competition for underneath volume and a defense likely to force shoot-outs, Allen sees a path to 115 receptions and 1,350 yards—numbers that would vault the sophomore into must-draft territory across all season-long and best-ball formats.

Conner Allen said Christian McCaffrey is mispriced at 22-1 for Offensive Player of the Year and called it a classic buy-low opportunity. Allen argued that when healthy McCaffrey virtually guarantees top-three scrimmage yards thanks to an every-down role, heavy red-zone usage and Kyle Shanahan’s screen/angle-route obsession. He reminded listeners the award has become “best non-QB on a winning team,” and San Francisco projects for 12-plus wins because of the league’s softest unique-opponent trio (Giants, Browns, Bears) on top of the NFC and AFC South draw. Allen added that four of the last five OPOY winners came from top-two seeds, the exact script a healthy McCaffrey is likely to follow in a 17-game slate. Locking in 22-1 now banks closing-line value before camp reports confirm he’s 100 %.

Conner Allen believes 20-1 is a buy-low tag on Nick Bosa for Defensive Player of the Year. Bosa racked up 18.5 and 15.5 sacks the two seasons before last year’s injury-marred campaign, yet books are pricing him closer to fringe contenders than to co-favorites Micah Parsons and Myles Garrett at 7-1. Allen expects San Francisco’s revamped interior—highlighted by second-year tackle Kalia Davis and vet Maliek Collins—to force quarterbacks up into Bosa’s path, restoring his usual league-leading pressure totals. With the 49ers projected for 12-plus wins against the NFL’s softest strength of schedule, Allen thinks Bosa only needs a typical 15-17 sack season to wrest narrative back from younger names. He called the number a rare discount on a household star and expects it to close near 10-1 once preseason reports confirm Bosa is fully healthy.

Conner Allen endorsed Ashton Jeanty at 4-1 for OROY, calling it the last playable price before the market craters. Allen argued that Chip Kelly’s arrival as offensive coordinator all but guarantees a run-first identity and noted that Las Vegas averaged the league’s fifth-highest rush rate inside the 10 last year. With only the oft-injured Sincere McCormick and aging Notre Dame alum Audric Estime behind him, Jeanty projects for a 75-80 % touch share from Day 1. Allen expects 300 total touches, citing Kelly’s Ohio State backs averaging 27.1 opportunities per game in 2023. If the Raiders flirt with eight or nine wins, Allen believes Jeanty’s raw volume—he threw out 1,400 scrimmage yards and 12-plus TDs—would make him the clear narrative favorite over quarterback candidates.

Conner Allen advised passing on Matthew Golden in the OROY market despite the enticing 28-1 sticker price. Allen does not expect the rookie to see meaningful volume in a Green Bay offense that already peppers Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Jayden Reed while funneling red-zone looks to the two tight ends. With Jordan Love unlikely to push past 570 attempts in Matt LaFleur’s balanced scheme, Allen projects Golden for sub-15 % target share and fewer than 60 catches—far short of the statistical juice recent award-winning receivers have needed. He summarized the bet as “paying for upside that probably isn’t there.”

Conner Allen called Travis Hunter a live 10-1 ticket for Offensive Rookie of the Year because voters may reward his rare two-way impact. Allen drew a parallel to Hunter’s Heisman campaign, noting that even modest offensive statistics could look spectacular when combined with plus-level defensive snaps. If Hunter logs productive reps at boundary corner and chips in meaningful receiving or gadget work on offense, Allen believes media buzz around the novelty of a genuine iron-man player will elevate his candidacy beyond what traditional box-score numbers might suggest.

Conner Allen also endorsed RJ Harvey at 22-1, emphasizing that the rookie has virtually no competition for touches. Audric Estime was a playoff healthy scratch and Jaleel McLaughlin has been limited to a sub-10-carry role, clearing the runway for Harvey to monopolize carries on what Allen believes is a borderline playoff roster. Allen noted Sean Payton’s history of feeding one primary back and projected Harvey to log the volume necessary to post 1,200+ scrimmage yards and double-digit TDs—numbers that historically put a running back squarely in the OROY conversation.