Ellenport highlighted the long-running "Monday-Night Hangover": teams that win on Monday are just 3-7-1 ATS the following week after Arizona’s flop in Week 10. The Eagles fit the profile after beating Seattle on Monday and now lay 1.5 at home to Detroit on Sunday night. With that trend squarely against Philadelphia and two Athlon staffers (Doug Farrar, Andrew Perloff) already backing Detroit, Ellenport advised bettors to ride the Lions plus the points.

Craig Ellenport likes Green Bay to cover the 7.5-point number at MetLife, framing this as a get-right game after two straight losses. He pointed out that New York just fired Brian Daboll and will be without "spark-plug" rookie QB Jaxson Dart, leaving the offense in disarray. While the Packers are only 1-7 ATS over their last eight, Ellenport noted that road favorites have crushed all year (35-19-1 ATS after a 3-1 Week 10) and Green Bay is one of seven such sides on the Week 11 card. The combination of a desperate Pack, a coaching change on the other sideline, and the profitable road-favorite trend convinced three of Athlon’s five writers—himself included—to lay the points.

Ellenport laid the 6.5 points with the Chargers in their MetLife trip, citing several factors. Kansas City just beat the Giants 22-9 in the same stadium, and Ellenport expects a similar script because New York is starting rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart and has one of the league’s toughest remaining home schedules. He argued the Giants may be underdogs in every home game this year, which should keep spreads like this from being inflated enough. Meanwhile Justin Herbert has guided Los Angeles to a 3-0 start, giving the Chargers the offensive punch to exploit a defense that just surrendered 7.0 yards per pass attempt to Kansas City. Combined with the broader 12-4 ATS success rate for road favorites so far, Ellenport believes the Chargers are positioned to cover the 6.5-point number comfortably.

Craig Ellenport backed Cincinnati to cover the -3.5 number in their Week 2 home opener against Jacksonville. Ellenport acknowledged every red flag that bettors are citing: the Bengals have dropped three straight home openers and five of their last six, Joe Burrow’s offense managed only 17 points and was scoreless after halftime in Week 1, and the franchise has not started 2-0 since 2018. Even so, he is "still on the Bengals bandwagon," believing the defense that stifled Cleveland will keep Trevor Lawrence in check and that Burrow’s attack will bounce back in front of a home crowd eager to end the streak. The pick leans on historical regression—Ellenport expects the negative opener trend to flip—and the modest 3.5-point spread that only asks Cincinnati to win by more than a field goal.