Dan Palyo said Ben Rice is a +300 HR prop worth firing on Saturday. Rice owns an elite .324 AVG and .368 ISO versus right-handed pitching and is pulling the ball 55% of the time, an ideal profile for Yankee Stadium’s short right-field porch. Opposing starter Zack Littell has already coughed up eight homers in 2025 and is allowing a .574 SLG to lefties. Palyo noted that while Aaron Judge also grades out well, Rice offers roughly double the payout at the window with a similar matchup advantage.

At +320, Palyo pegged Bobby Witt Jr. as a buy-low HR prop. Witt has only three homers but continues to barrel the baseball at an elite clip reminiscent of his 2024 breakout; Palyo notes the Royals’ shortstop ranks near the top of MLB in hard-hit rate and all-fields contact. He faces Tomoyuki Sugano, whom Palyo calls a one-pitch pitcher relying almost exclusively on a splitter while carrying a 5.66 xERA and 11% barrel rate allowed even after a fluky shutout of the Yankees. Palyo expects Witt’s advanced bat-to-ball skills to handle Sugano’s “junk and bad fastball,” predicting any mistake could leave the yard and that odds north of +300 won’t last once Witt heats up.

Palyo endorsed Spencer Torkelson over 0.5 HR at +400. Torkelson has nine long balls, a .237 ISO against right-handed pitching, and visits a favorable park against Angels righty Kyle Hendricks, whose 6.65 ERA, 5.70 SIERA, 6.5% swinging-strike rate, and 91.2% zone-contact percentage highlight his diminished stuff. All four homers Hendricks has allowed in 2025 have come from right-handed hitters. Torkelson’s batted-ball profile—45% fly-ball rate and 45% pull rate—mirrors elite power hitters, and he already took Hendricks deep earlier in the series. With Detroit’s top slugger entering with confidence, Palyo sees Hendricks’ strike-throwing style serving up another mistake at a generous price.

Palyo advised betting Seiya Suzuki to homer at +500. Suzuki sits on nine HRs and has gone deep three times in his last four contests. Versus southpaws in 2025 he sports a .385 ISO, .769 SLG, and only a 20% K-rate, echoing 2024 splits where he posted a .360 wOBA and 134 wRC+ against lefties. Brewer starter Jose Quintana owns a shiny 1.14 ERA, but Palyo warned the peripherals (92% zone contact, 5.9% SwStr) scream regression. With Quintana rarely missing bats and Suzuki’s plate discipline, Palyo expects aggressive swings on get-me-over fastballs, making the +500 tag an overlay for a hitter near the top of the league HR board.

Palyo labeled Jesse Winker his favorite lottery ticket, taking the over 0.5 HR at a juicy +800. The veteran lefty owns a 43% fly-ball rate and 57% pull rate, indicators that more homers are coming despite only one so far. He invoked the old DFS mantra “Winker vs. sinkers,” pointing out that Cardinals starter Erick Fedde leans on a low-90s sinker/cutter/slider mix for 90% of his pitches, posts a 92.2% zone-contact rate, and records just a 7.6% swinging-strike rate—meaning lots of hittable pitches. Weather models call for wind blowing out to right at Busch Stadium, and for the BvP crowd Winker is 4-for-12 (.333) with two career homers off Fedde. All factors combine for a live longshot.

Dan Palyo backed Ben Rice to go over 0.5 HR at +300. Rice already has eight bombs, logged a 105.4-mph double off the wall last night, and is batting .324 with a .368 ISO against right-handed pitching. Palyo emphasized Rice’s 55% pull rate paired with Yankee Stadium’s short right-field porch, noting that 55%+ pulled fly balls historically translate into elite HR rates. Opposing starter Zack Littell has surrendered eight homers in 2025 and is giving up a .574 SLG to left-handed hitters while ranking near the bottom of the league in hard-hit suppression. Palyo likes the price gap versus Aaron Judge’s +150 number and expects Rice to lead off, maximizing plate appearances.

Dan Palyo recommended taking Max Meyer over 5.5 strikeouts, emphasizing Meyer's excellent start to the season (28.8% K-rate and just a 5.8% walk rate, alongside a strong 13% swinging-strike rate). Meyer has consistently logged over 90 pitches and cleared 6 strikeouts in each of his first two starts. Palyo acknowledged the challenging scenario against the Mets, a team with sub-20% strikeout rate versus right-handers and good plate discipline, but believes the pricing represents excellent value considering Meyer's talent and early success.

Dan Palyo favored betting the under on Logan Allen's strikeout prop (4.5 Ks), referring to Allen’s disastrous first start where he posted a 4% strikeout rate, 3% swinging strike percentage, and alarmingly walked 20% of hitters faced. While Allen was an 18% strikeout pitcher the previous year, Palyo argues that the pitcher is visibly struggling and unlikely to improve dramatically in just one outing. Despite a favorable matchup against the White Sox, who are about league average with a 23% strikeout rate against lefties, Allen is deemed too problematic to back given his poor season debut.

Dan Palyo supports betting the under on Luis F. Castillo's 3.5 strikeout prop. Castillo, a 30-year-old journeyman, struggled badly in his season debut with an 11% strikeout rate, 11% walk rate, and low 5.9% swinging strike rate. Throwing only 68 pitches in his first outing, evidence points him either not fully stretched out or having a notably short leash. Palyo sees limited upside today, predicting that a strong Astros lineup will end Castillo's day early, alleviating any over bets on his prop.

Dan Palyo advised betting the under on Randy Vasquez's 3.5 strikeout prop based on significant early-season issues highlighted by an alarming 11% K-rate and extremely low 4.6% swinging strike rate. Palyo also flagged Vasquez's 100% Z-contact%, meaning he hasn't elicited a single whiff in the strike zone this season, further indicating he's struggling severely to fool hitters. Additionally, Vasquez's 20% walk rate combined with a hot young A's lineup that torched Padres' better pitchers lately, call for significant caution. The pitcher-friendly aspect of Oakland's stadium has surprisingly benefited hitters so far, intensifying the argument against Vasquez tonight.

Dan Palyo recommended betting over 6.5 strikeouts for Hunter Brown, highlighting standout early-season metrics such as a stellar 33% strikeout rate, a strong 13.4% swinging strike percentage, and noteworthy velocity uptick on his fastball. Palyo noted Brown's top-tier 32.1% called-and-swinging-strike (CSW) rate, underscored by a 74.5% zone-contact percentage proving hitters' difficulty with his fastball-driven arsenal. Given these indicators and the favorable vs. Mariners matchup, Brown is seen as a near lock to surpass the overs on his strikeout prop of 6.5 Ks.

Dan Palyo expects Shota Imanaga to surpass his strikeout prop (over 5.5 Ks), referencing his solid underlying metrics despite a low early-season strikeout rate of 14.7%. With a 13.5% swinging strike percentage and strong chase rates matching top-tier strikeout pitchers like Hunter Brown, Palyo anticipates statistical regression toward better numbers. Imanaga has already faced tough matchups (LAD, SDP, ARI) and has performed decently given the circumstances. Texas holds a 25% strikeout rate against lefties, giving Imanaga a prime opportunity to achieve his typical K-rate and clear the strikeout total.

Dan Palyo identified Tylor Megill as a strong candidate to surpass his 6.5 K prop versus the Marlins, highlighting Megill's 27% strikeout rate in 2024 and solid early 2025 performance (25% K-rate). Despite a modest pitch count (77 and 82 pitches), his underlying data supports future success, boasting a Stuff+ rating of 116. The matchup is highly favorable as the Marlins carry a whopping 28% strikeout rate against righties and recently struck out 10 times against Clay Holmes. Assuming Megill receives an increased workload (closer to 90 pitches), Palyo sees him easily clearing the strikeout threshold.

Dan Palyo highly recommends betting AJ Smith-Shawver over 4.5 strikeouts (-138 FanDuel). Miami's lineup just allowed Spencer Schwellenbach 10 strikeouts in the previous game, underscoring their significant issues with strikeouts. Smith-Shawver's first appearance showed encouraging indicators—a 16.9% SwStr%, impressive 32.5% CSW%, and although some walk concerns (14% BB%), Miami's paltry 7% walk rate eases that concern. Palyo identifies this prop as one of today's best bets, perceiving excellent potential for a strong performance against Miami's strikeout-heavy lineup.

Dan Palyo favors Brady Singer over 5.5 strikeouts (-105 DraftKings), noting significant shifts in Singer's pitch profile with the Reds. Singer has abandoned his changeup in favor of a cutter and increased four-seam fastball usage, a shift producing immediate results—33% K% and 15.2% SwStr% in his season debut. Facing a Brewers team currently striking out nearly 24% of the time against right-handers, Palyo sees great value in backing Singer to secure at least six strikeouts.

Dan Palyo likes JP Sears over 5.5 strikeouts (+105 DraftKings), highlighting Sears' revamped pitch mix involving greater slider and sweeper usage and less reliance on his changeup, improvements that yielded an enticing 28% K% and 32% CSW% in Sears' season debut. Palyo underscores the tremendous matchup facing a Rockies lineup currently striking out at an extreme 37% clip against left-handed pitchers. Although the park factor creates some risk, he expects Sears’ improved slider usage and Colorado's high strikeout propensity to drive him to at least six strikeouts.

Dan Palyo recommends strongly betting Jack Kochanowicz under 3.5 strikeouts (-150 DraftKings). Kochanowicz, historically one of baseball's weakest strikeout pitchers with a mere 9% K% last year, benefitted from anomalous stats in his season debut. Specifically, he achieved a highly unsustainable 52% O-Swing%, which Palyo believes will regress significantly vs. Guardians, a patient lineup that is unlikely to chase often and will force Kochanowicz deeper into counts. Palyo sees clear value on the under, anticipating an outing of very limited strikeouts.

Dan Palyo strongly advised betting Andre Pallante under 4.5 strikeouts (-135 DraftKings). Pallante has consistently mediocre underlying metrics—a career 16.5% K-rate and no notable pitch changes signaling improvement. Boston's disciplined lineup with a 13.5% walk rate and strong recent production (128 wRC+) should limit Pallante's innings and strikeouts. Palyo views the 4.5 strikeout line as mispriced, strongly recommending the under.

Dan Palyo supported Taj Bradley's prop over 5.5 strikeouts (+110 DraftKings). Bradley dominated in his initial outing against the Rockies, boasting a 30% K-rate, 0% BB% and a strong 15.4% SwStr%. Although the Rangers present a challenging and talented lineup, surrendering only a 19% strikeout rate vs righties thus far, Palyo believes Bradley's talent and excellent stuff justify the plus odds. He highlights the betting value on Bradley now, expecting odds on this talented pitcher to sharply adjust after continued success.

Dan Palyo encourages taking Spencer Arrighetti's over 5.5 strikeouts (-120 FanDuel). Arrighetti impressed in his first start, striking out five Mets hitters over six innings, posting a promising 31.8% CSW%, and showcasing a strong rookie campaign with a 27% K% last year. Palyo cites the Twins lineup as ripe for regression, with a rolling three-year average K rate around 25%. Palyo also pointed to Hunter Brown's recent eight-strikeout performance against Minnesota, indicating Arrighetti can similarly find success here, requiring only six strikeouts to cash in.

Dan Palyo touted Reese Olson's strikeout prop over 5.5 (+110 at DraftKings), citing Olson's solid performance against the Dodgers where he achieved five strikeouts. Olson threw 93 pitches in that outing, proving he is well-stretched out, and now faces the White Sox—a weaker lineup striking out 22% of the time versus righties—highlighted by young, free-swinging hitters. Olson's strong Ks against left-handers further strengthens his potential. With Olson set to face multiple left-handed batters today, Palyo expects him to effectively exploit the matchup, seeing plus odds value in Olson getting through six innings with at least one strikeout per inning.