Dan Tom favored Denise Gomes but refused to lay the –550 money-line, instead targeting finish props and DFS shares. Gomes owns the clear grappling edge, regularly hitting chain takedowns and pounding away from mount—a style that scores in every column on DraftKings. Elise Reed still operates out of her own small gym and has shown zero defensive wrestling growth, losing whenever an opponent can ride top. The 25-foot Apex cage shortens Reed’s karate movement and funnels her into Gomes’ clinch entries. Tom thinks a second-round TKO is the most likely outcome, making Inside-the-Distance (around –130) or submission/KO round props far more palatable than the chalky ML. For fantasy players forced to choose an expensive fighter, he prefers Gomes’ takedown-plus-ground-and-pound ceiling over other big favorites on the slate.

Dan Tom said the safest way to back Luana Santos is still the money-line, but he is tempted to add a tiny round-robin flier on Santos by submission at juicy plus money. Tom expects a grindy fence fight in the 25-foot Apex cage where Santos’ black-belt judo trips force Lisboa to her back. Tape on Lisboa shows a stark split: competent top control but almost no get-up game—Tom called the difference “purple belt on top, white belt on bottom.” If Santos can land even one throw and settle into half-guard, Tom believes her pressure passing makes an arm-triangle or head-and-arm choke live despite Santos’ usual decision-heavy style. He is waiting to confirm Lisboa’s knee looks healthy after reconstruction, but sees the sub prop as a creative way to turn a –175 favorite into a 4- or 5-to-1 payout while still fading Lisboa’s biggest weakness.

Dan Tom sided with Luana Santos at roughly –175, calling her the rightful favorite over Tainara Lisboa. Tom highlighted several factors: Santos is a black-belt judoka who thrives in clinch positions, and the UFC Apex’ 25-foot cage should force clinches early and often. Lisboa is returning from extensive left-knee reconstruction that included cartilage grafts, and most of her taped wins came against non-UFC competition; her last bout saw her botch a head-and-arm throw and give up top position in round three against Raven Oliver. Tom expects the smaller cage plus Santos’ judo trips to neutralize Lisboa’s size advantage and kickboxing accolades, especially because Santos has already competed at bantamweight and looked in better shape during a recent LFA appearance that Tom covered in person. With the younger athlete by nearly eight years, a more diverse skill set on the mat, and Lisboa’s uncertain durability after surgery, Tom believes Santos wins via clinch-heavy decision or late ground-and-pound, recommending the money-line down to –190.

Dan Tom locked in 1.5 units on Jared Gordon when the line was still +115 and would bet him down to even money. He explained that Thiago Moises “is allergic to southpaws and hates pressure,” tracing the pattern back to regional losses (Robert Watley) and UFC setbacks to Bobby Green and Joel Alvarez. Gordon brings exactly that nightmare style: relentless forward movement, underrated Henzo-Gracie wrestling, and an ability to throw 100-plus strikes per round inside the small Apex cage. Tom also pointed out that Moises routinely backs himself to the fence and settles for low single-shot output, allowing grinders to bank rounds. While acknowledging Gordon’s tendency to get wild after he hurts opponents—“the guy’s bad luck magnet”—Tom believes the combination of constant clinch pressure, cardio, and volume gives Gordon multiple paths to a 29-28 decision. He grabbed the early underdog price for closing-line value but still prefers Gordon straight up rather than any prop.

Dan Tom said bettors should treat this as a classic dog-or-pass spot even though he is officially picking Mathews Camilo to win. Tom believes the 155-pound limit actually favors the bigger, stockier Camilo, who “used to kill himself” making featherweight and now looks like a tank at lightweight. By contrast, Green is coming back down from welterweight and Tom worries the extra cut—combined with a year-long layoff—will sap Green’s durability. Tom noted Green has been randomly dropped in rounds he was winning (citing the Phil Rowe fight) and argued that body-punchers are the worst opponents for a dehydrated fighter. Camilo’s Jose Aldo-inspired body work fits that description. Even so, Tom refuses to lay –230 chalk on a prospect “who isn’t Aldo yet” and advises either taking the plus-money on Green or passing entirely because the number has already maxed out Camilo’s perceived edge.

Dan Tom echoed the Erosa dog call, adding inside information from Extreme Couture. Erosa’s current camp pairs him with striking coach Abijah Kaleah Mejula, whose southpaw switch-stance style mirrors Costa’s preferred looks, and training partners like lightweight prospect Kaleo Mejula. Tom notes that Erosa’s tape against Darren Elkins looked like he was ‘stuck in mud,’ but attributes that to Elkins’ perpetual slow-motion pace rather than a decline in skills. In the smaller UFC Apex cage, Tom expects Erosa’s forward pressure, varied boxing entries and willingness to mix in level-changes to force Costa into exchanges instead of the waiting game he prefers. While acknowledging Erosa can still be knocked out, Tom values the fighter’s proven ability to create volume and finish upside over Costa’s reactive striking and believes the plus-money number remains playable down to +130. DFS players hunting leverage can also target Erosa’s combination of striking volume and submission attempts for a ceiling well above salary expectations.

Dan Tom advised passing on Dustin Stoltzfus pre-fight and instead hunting a juicier live number once Round 1 ends. Tom thinks the current +260 to +300 money-line is inflated because the smaller Apex cage and Stoltzfus’ clinch-heavy style give the underdog a real grinding path to a 29-28 decision if he can survive the early storm. Stoltzfus has quietly sharpened his feints, kick-punch combos and transitions while cross-training at Syndicate and Xtreme Couture, whereas Ruzaboyev remains a jab-only striker whose recent camp change to Marquez MMA has yet to demonstrate new wrinkles. Tom wants bettors to watch the end of Round 1: if Stoltzfus weathers the opening barrage—maybe even gets rocked but recovers—odds should still hang around +150 to +200. That is the moment to fire, because every extra minute favors the dog’s cardio, fence work and takedown attempts inside the cramped cage. Tom still expects to pick Ruzaboyev officially, but the live-bet window on Stoltzfus is the only exposure he is willing to stake with real money.

Dan Tom said the short-notice nature of this booking forced the bout to 155 rather than the normal 145 and that extra ten pounds is a sneaky plus for Sodiq Yusuff. Yusuff has admitted the featherweight cut has been brutal for years, calling himself ‘a really dense guy,’ and is already flirting with a permanent move up. Santos is a big featherweight too, but Tom argued the smaller Brazilian gains less because he is still growing into his frame, whereas Yusuff immediately benefits from added durability and cardio with no drain. Tom also reminded listeners that neither man is a one-shot knockout artist, so the lighter cut for Yusuff does not erase a power gap. Combine the healthier weight cut, Yusuff’s proven forward-pressure style that wins optics, and Santos’ apparent hesitation after admitting he thought he lost the Francis Marshall fight, and Tom labeled it a clear “dog-or-pass” spot. He is leaning to Yusuff money-line at anything +100 or better and expects the fight to reach the judges more often than the market implies, making Over 2.5 a viable sidecar wager.

Dan Tom said the betting line is "begging you to play the dog" because Sodiq Yusuff is the far more proven product while Mairon Santos has done little beyond a highly-debated split over Francis Marshall. Tom pointed out that Santos looked visibly gun-shy for the final two rounds after being dropped and may not even have been booked here had the judges gone the other way. Yusuff, on the other hand, has shown he can push pace against elite strikers—walking down Edson Barboza, surviving a firefight with Mike Davis on Contender Series—and routinely lands his counter right with serious pop. Tom also questioned how much hands-on coaching Santos actually receives at the oversaturated Xtreme Couture gym and warned that many UFC fighters are taking short-notice bouts due to the crowded schedule. All things considered, Tom advised a simple Yusuff money-line play at anything plus-100 or better and labeled the matchup strictly “dog or pass.”

Dan Tom told fantasy players Bellato is a superior high-salary DFS option compared to Michael Morales in the main event. Bellato scores in multiple columns: he throws in combination to the head, body, and legs, hunts ground-and-pound if he ends up on top, and owns legitimate knockout power at light heavyweight. Morales, while a massive favorite, does not aggressively pursue takedowns, rarely strings punches together, and could be stuck in a low-volume outside kickboxing match with Gilbert Burns—limiting fantasy ceiling. Tom expects Bellato to either secure an early KO (strikes bonus) or pile up significant strikes and potential knockdowns before finishing Craig, giving him 100-plus DraftKings point upside even at a $9K-plus salary. If you are paying up for one prohibitive favorite on this slate, Tom believes Bellato’s finishing style provides far better bang for the DFS buck.

Dan Tom agreed Bellato should finish Craig but argued bettors are "priced out" on the chalky money-line (north of –500), Inside-the-Distance (-280), and KO (-180). Instead, he suggested a plus-money stab on Bellato Round 2 at roughly +275 to +300. Tom explained that Bellato has an odd trend of getting his "stuff wrecked" in Round 1—Jimmy Crute mounted him for four minutes and Ihor Potieria rocked him early—yet he rallies once the adrenaline settles. Craig, meanwhile, is unlikely to replicate those fast starts because his stand-up is poor and he rarely initiates offense, relying on opponents to make mistakes. If Bellato uses his developing jab, body work, and calf kicks from his camp with Alex Pereira to stay safe early, Tom expects Craig to fade and Bellato’s power combinations to land in the second frame. The Round 2 prop captures both Bellato’s historical pacing and Craig’s tendency to wilt after an initial grappling flurry while still paying bettors better than 2-to-1.

Dan Tom said the safest way to back Michael Morales now that his money-line has ballooned past –800 is to attack the total. He prefers betting Under 3.5 rounds at –120 or better, explaining that you are essentially buying a Morales finish without laying the outrageous ML or KO prop. Tom pointed to Morales’ eight-inch reach, accurate jab and explosive counter-cross that line up perfectly with Burns’ documented problems versus checking jabs. He also highlighted Morales’ opportunistic finishing streak (six UFC wins, five inside the distance) and Burns’ recent knockdowns from both Kamaru Usman and Khamzat Chimaev as evidence the veteran’s durability is slipping. Tom acknowledged there is ‘false equity’ on the Burns finish and advised monitoring a live number on Burns if the Brazilian survives the early on-slot, but pre-fight he believes the under 3.5 captures Morales’ most likely win condition at a palatable price.

Dan Tom still leans toward Bekzat Almakhan but advised bettors to attack the split-decision market (≈ +600) rather than laying chalk on either side. Tom acknowledged Almakhan’s year of upgrades—Tiger Muay Thai striking reps and American Top Team grappling rounds with Alexandre Pantoja—but expects Katona’s veteran savvy to keep every frame competitive. He sees Almakhan’s speed and in-and-out karate footwork winning the optics while Katona’s clinch advances and top control win the nerd stats, leaving judges to choose their flavor. Given Alberta’s history of 29-28 disagreement, Tom feels a split ticket captures the likely variance and pays better than a straight favorite bet or the over 2.5 rounds that is already juiced to –240.

Dan Tom advised betting Aljamain "Navajo" Sterling inside the distance, projecting a round-two or round-three stoppage over Ivan Erslan. Tom highlighted Sterling’s commitment to ripping the body—a weapon Erslan has never really had to defend—and thinks sustained liver shots will melt the Croatian far quicker than the 1.5-round total suggests (under sits at +135). While Erslan looked serviceable on short notice last time, he still plants his feet and offers almost no lateral movement, a dream target for Sterling’s switch-stance kicks and shovel hooks. Because the money-line has ballooned to –310, Tom is bypassing the chalk and taking Sterling KO/TKO around +125 with a hedge on the under 1.5 in case the body work pays off even sooner.

Dan Tom said to take Modestas Bukauskas at near pick-em odds (-108) against Ion Cutelaba. Tom acknowledged Cutelaba’s early chaos and brief stint at Extreme Couture but emphasized that the Moldovan still melts once the first five-minute burst burns out. Bukauskas, by contrast, has "paid his dues" since re-entering the UFC: the Lithuanian cleaned up his tall-man defense after the brutal Rountree loss, mixes range-finding jabs with calf kicks, and showed he can fight through adversity in the Tyson Pedro bout. Tom expects Bukauskas to survive the predictable early blitz, then take over behind crisper footwork and a steadier gas tank. With the total set at 1.5 rounds (under +110), Tom sprinkled a little on the under but made the Bukauskas money-line the core bet, projecting either a late-second-round TKO or a 29-28 decision once Cutelaba’s output craters.

Dan Tom leaned toward the inside-the-distance prop on Jasmine Jasudavicius, arguing her length and leverage will make Andrade’s guard “feel like Ricky Glenn vs Gavin Tucker all over again.” Tom compared Andrade to a smaller John Lineker—pure hooks, little defense—and warned that kind of bullish style collapses once a taller wrestler plants her and rains elbows. He cited Andrade losing by ground-and-pound or choke in four of her last nine fights and added that the Brazilian’s 30-fight UFC mileage plus personal turmoil has produced wildly inconsistent efforts, similar to Deiveson Figueiredo’s up-and-down run at flyweight. Tom expects Jasmine to land 3-4 takedowns, posture over a trapped half-guard, and either club-and-sub or force a referee stoppage in Rounds 2-3. With the Under 2.5 sitting at +115 and Jasmine ITD at +175, he believes those are superior angles to laying –300 on the money-line or guessing between decision and submission.

Dan Tom doubled-down on his earlier Valentina call but clarified how he is structuring the ticket: straight Shevchenko money-line at +118, then a smaller hedge parlaying Over 4.5 rounds (-310) with a prelim favorite. Tom reiterated Fiorot’s cardio red flags—she slowed in both the Blanchfield and Namajunas bouts despite only going 15 minutes—while Shevchenko owns a dozen five-rounders and has never gassed. He trusts the ex-champ’s ability to match Manon’s physicality, force clinches, and sprinkle takedowns that bleed clock. Because neither woman has been finished in the UFC and the total is already juiced, Tom sees the Over as a near lock; tying it to Valentina creates a plus-EV, low-variance position that still pays if Fiorot survives but loses on points.

Dan Tom said to back Belal Muhammad by decision at roughly –161 because the champion is the best game-planner in any weight class right now and refuses to give opponents the fight they want. Tom acknowledged Jack Della Maddalena is a live dog thanks to a switch-stance boxing attack and a Southpaw left hand that has historically bothered Belal (Tom cited the Luque left hook and Leon Edwards’ early success). Even so, Tom trusts Belal’s 6-2-1 record in five-rounders, his willingness to stick to a jab-and-level-change blueprint, and his proven durability in late-night, short-notice situations. With the total set at 4.5 rounds (Over –200), Tom expects 25 full minutes of Belal top-control and fence-pushing that secures a judges’ nod while avoiding the Australian’s pocket exchanges.

Dan Tom labeled Bekzat Almakhan a worthy parlay piece at –161, despite acknowledging the line feels like a trap. Historical tape shows Brad Katona fights to his opponent’s level—squeaking split decisions over fringe talents while remaining competitive with better names—but consistently struggles when the other man owns superior athleticism and a dedicated wrestling game. Almakhan checks both boxes: the Kazakh prospect averages 3.9 takedown attempts per 15 minutes, chains doubles into mat returns, and throws heavy overhands off level-change feints. Dan highlighted Almakhan flashing legitimate power when he floored Umar Nurmagomedov on short notice, adding that the SPG-Ireland featherweight’s upright stance leaves him vulnerable to the same counter right hand John Matsumoto landed repeatedly. Katona is durable—never finished—but Dan trusts Alma-khan’s pace, first-move grappling initiative and willingness to swing big in pocket exits to bank the first two rounds and threaten a late finish if Katona’s volume dips under his career 3.3 strikes-landed-per-minute mark. He is pairing the Kazakh with another chalk favorite rather than paying minus money on a 2.5-round over that could get hairy if Almakhan’s power shows up early.

Dan Tom backed Valentina Shevchenko at +118, insisting the market is over-reacting to her age and a pair of Alexa Grasso fights. Tom highlighted that this is a rare southpaw-versus-southpaw title bout, a stance matchup that historically narrows striking gaps and favors seasoned counter strikers like Shevchenko. On re-watch, he felt Valentina’s footwork, lead-hand control, and left-cross timing actually sharpened across the Grasso trilogy, while Manon Fiorot’s volume edge is smaller than raw stats suggest (only about 1.5 strikes landed per minute). More importantly, no one has tested Fiorot’s ground game; she coasted against an undersized Erin Blanchfield and still showed late-round fatigue in a three-rounder. Tom believes Shevchenko can match the Frenchwoman’s athleticism, mix in reactive doubles, and bank top-control in championship rounds. With the total juiced to over 4.5 (-310), he prefers Shevchenko by decision at +225 but is happy grabbing the plus-money money-line on the former champ.