Daniel Gumby Vreeland backed Miesha Tate at –138, predicting Cupcake will rinse-and-repeat takedowns on Yana Santos just like Holly Holm did. Gumby reminded listeners that a 41-year-old Holm put Santos on her back four times last July despite Holm’s wrestling never being elite. Tate, by contrast, averages 2.12 takedowns per 15 minutes, converts at a 32 % clip, and owns eight career submission wins. He also cited Santos’s –81 differential in combined control time over her last three losses and the fact she has only a +1.30 striking margin to offset shaky 50 % takedown defense. Tate has been inactive but looked sharp in her December 2023 submission of Julia Avila, and her superior top control (1:49 average per round) should let her grind out three rounds here. Vreeland therefore likes the money-line favorite and will look at decision props around +140.

Daniel Gumby Vreeland said to lay the –370 on Azamat Bekoev because the former LFA middleweight champ checks every box Ryan Loder does not. Vreeland noted Loder’s game has stalled since his regional days— he still relies almost exclusively on single-leg attempts and landed just 1-of-3 takedowns on Robert Valentin in The Ultimate Fighter finale. By comparison, Bekoev rag-dolled Zachary Reese and owns seven knockouts, eight submissions, and a +2.61 significant-strike differential in his brief UFC sample. Gumby added that Bekoev is four years younger, carries legitimate one-punch power, and has slick counter wrestling that neutralizes Loder’s only path. With Bekoev riding a seven-fight win streak and having not lost since 2021, Vreeland expects him to stuff early shots, punish Loder on the feet, and either bank dominant minutes or find a late finish, making the money-line favorite and inside-the-distance props worthwhile.

During his Underdog Pick-’Em segment, Gumby Vreeland targeted the "higher than" line on Ivana Petrovic’s significant strikes. He expects Petrovic to eclipse the prop because Miller has absorbed 5.44 sig-strikes per minute while landing only 1.85 herself, and her 0-for-4 takedown defense means Petrovic should secure dominant positions and unleash steady ground-and-pound. Vreeland noted Petrovic averaged 37 significant strikes in her five pre-UFC wins and landed 41 in her debut, suggesting volume is there if Miller survives beyond the opening stanza. With the favorite projected to control where the fight takes place and Miller’s porous defense guaranteeing opportunities, Gumby endorsed the over as a creative way to back Petrovic without laying –220.

Gumby Vreeland grabbed Marina Rodriguez at +260, calling the number "way too wide" because Robertson’s offensive wrestling still lags behind her submission skills. He reminded listeners that Rodriguez stuffed four of seven shots from Virna Jandiroba— an elite wrestler who just mauled Xiaonan Yan— and survived more than a dozen grappling sequences with Mackenzie Dern over 25 minutes without being tapped. Rodriguez has never been submitted in 24 pro bouts and has only been KO’d once. Vreeland doubts Robertson can consistently get her down and, if she does, keep her there long enough to work a finish. On the feet Rodriguez lands 5.37 significant strikes per minute and carries a +1.60 differential, numbers Robertson (2.83 landed, –0.06 differential) cannot match. If takedowns are neutralized, Gumby predicts Rodriguez out-points the Canadian and cashes as a live dog.

Daniel Gumby Vreeland sided with Quang “Bang” Le as a small +125 underdog, arguing the Vietnamese prospect owns multiple grappling edges Bolanos cannot match. Gumby pointed out Le shot Chris Gutierrez on five-days’ notice and still landed more takedowns than John Castaneda managed last weekend, a feather in Le’s cap because Gutierrez owns a 73 % career TDD rate. By contrast, Bolanos surrendered four takedowns and over six minutes of top control to Cortavius Romious in a fight he still barely won, exposing a 33 % TDD that has plagued him since Bellator. Vreeland added that Bolanos is the shorter, stockier striker and therefore easier for Le to level-change on, while Le’s LFA résumé includes a head-kick KO that proves he can hold his own on the feet if necessary. With Le offering knockout power plus a clear path on the mat, Gumby recommended the money-line dog and a sprinkle on submission props.

Daniel Gumby Vreeland is backing Thomas Peterson (–250) largely on wrestling. Peterson landed an early takedown on heavyweight prospect Shamil Gaziev before getting caught, proving to Gumby that his level-changes translate to the UFC. Mayes, meanwhile, was rag-dolled by Gaziev and owns three submission losses. Vreeland expects Peterson’s chain wrestling, top pressure, and ground-and-pound to wear Mayes down and sees a finish as very live. He prefers the Peterson money line and will sprinkle inside-the-distance props.

Daniel Gumby Vreeland said he is backing Ivana Petrovic at –220 because Juliana Miller has offered zero evidence she can wrestle at the UFC level. Since winning TUF, Miller is 0-for-5 on her own takedowns, 0-for-4 defending them, and is being out-landed by 1.44 significant strikes per minute. Gumby noted the 13-month layoff, a 3-3 overall record and two-fight skid as further red flags. By contrast, Petrovic took down Na Liang, survived her submission game, and previously bulldozed Ares champ Alexandra Tenca with top control, ground-and-pound, and subs. Vreeland expects Petrovic to put Miller on her back, stay safe in guard, and either rack up dominant minutes or find a finish, making the favorite a confident money-line and possible inside-the-distance play.