Daniel Gumby Vreeland backed Miesha Tate at –138, predicting Cupcake will rinse-and-repeat takedowns on Yana Santos just like Holly Holm did. Gumby reminded listeners that a 41-year-old Holm put Santos on her back four times last July despite Holm’s wrestling never being elite. Tate, by contrast, averages 2.12 takedowns per 15 minutes, converts at a 32 % clip, and owns eight career submission wins. He also cited Santos’s –81 differential in combined control time over her last three losses and the fact she has only a +1.30 striking margin to offset shaky 50 % takedown defense. Tate has been inactive but looked sharp in her December 2023 submission of Julia Avila, and her superior top control (1:49 average per round) should let her grind out three rounds here. Vreeland therefore likes the money-line favorite and will look at decision props around +140.

Daniel Gumby Vreeland said to lay the –370 on Azamat Bekoev because the former LFA middleweight champ checks every box Ryan Loder does not. Vreeland noted Loder’s game has stalled since his regional days— he still relies almost exclusively on single-leg attempts and landed just 1-of-3 takedowns on Robert Valentin in The Ultimate Fighter finale. By comparison, Bekoev rag-dolled Zachary Reese and owns seven knockouts, eight submissions, and a +2.61 significant-strike differential in his brief UFC sample. Gumby added that Bekoev is four years younger, carries legitimate one-punch power, and has slick counter wrestling that neutralizes Loder’s only path. With Bekoev riding a seven-fight win streak and having not lost since 2021, Vreeland expects him to stuff early shots, punish Loder on the feet, and either bank dominant minutes or find a late finish, making the money-line favorite and inside-the-distance props worthwhile.

Gumby Vreeland grabbed Marina Rodriguez at +260, calling the number "way too wide" because Robertson’s offensive wrestling still lags behind her submission skills. He reminded listeners that Rodriguez stuffed four of seven shots from Virna Jandiroba— an elite wrestler who just mauled Xiaonan Yan— and survived more than a dozen grappling sequences with Mackenzie Dern over 25 minutes without being tapped. Rodriguez has never been submitted in 24 pro bouts and has only been KO’d once. Vreeland doubts Robertson can consistently get her down and, if she does, keep her there long enough to work a finish. On the feet Rodriguez lands 5.37 significant strikes per minute and carries a +1.60 differential, numbers Robertson (2.83 landed, –0.06 differential) cannot match. If takedowns are neutralized, Gumby predicts Rodriguez out-points the Canadian and cashes as a live dog.

Daniel Gumby Vreeland is backing Thomas Peterson (–250) largely on wrestling. Peterson landed an early takedown on heavyweight prospect Shamil Gaziev before getting caught, proving to Gumby that his level-changes translate to the UFC. Mayes, meanwhile, was rag-dolled by Gaziev and owns three submission losses. Vreeland expects Peterson’s chain wrestling, top pressure, and ground-and-pound to wear Mayes down and sees a finish as very live. He prefers the Peterson money line and will sprinkle inside-the-distance props.