Skattebo already trailed Tyrone Tracy Jr. for touches; now Brian Daboll called his latest hamstring tweak a "setback." Kelley says RB34, 100.7 ADP forces you to eat early missed weeks with no guarantee he ever climbs the depth chart.

Kelley reiterated his NFC East bust call: Ertz’s shallow target role overlaps with Deebo Samuel, and Washington spent a 2024 second-round pick on Ben Sinnott. TE19, 146.9 ADP buys a player likely to lose snaps as the season progresses.

The only positive rehab report on Godwin is that he is "moving well" with no timetable. Kelley says WR35, 64.5 ADP forces drafters to gamble on health info we simply don’t have, turning him into a roster landmine.

Kupp’s best work is inside, but Seattle invested in Jaxon Smith-Njigba as its future slot. Kelley projects JSN to dominate those reps, pushing 32-year-old Kupp outside behind a shaky line and quarterback. At WR41 (87.8 ADP) he is an avoid.

Aiyuk’s ACL rehab has yet to receive a public target date. Kelley says WR47, 103.6 ADP is effectively burning a roster spot on a player who might not play in 2025 and will certainly be eased in if he does.

Pollard’s yards per carry slipped from 4.4 to 3.9 after mid-season last year, and he has five receiving TDs in six pro seasons. Kelley forecasts more touches for Tyjae Spears as Pollard hits 28, making RB28 (77.4 ADP) an overpay.

Warren’s fantasy juice comes from catches, but the Steelers signed Jonnu Smith to work short areas and drafted Kaleb Johnson to challenge him for snaps. Kelley thinks RB32, 91.4 ADP assumes last year’s Najee split repeats, ignoring altered target distribution.

Goedert accepted a reworked deal after back-to-back sub-500-yard seasons and has never topped five TDs. His yards per target nosedived from 10.6 (2021-22) to 8.1 (2023-24). With Saquon Barkley, A.J. Green and DeVonta Smith commanding volume, TE16 (125.3 ADP) is a trap per Kelley.

Taylor sits at TE24 (197.9 ADP) in an offense that just supported Garrett Wilson and wants to lean on Breece Hall and Justin Fields’ legs. Kelley believes rookie tight ends with limited target share projections do not belong on draft boards.

Kelley reminds readers that another head hit could be career altering for Olave. With Spencer Rattler or a rookie who could not beat Rattler out at South Carolina under center, Olave’s WR32 (68.6 ADP) outlook craters on both health and quarterback play.

Williams is WR58 (138.5 ADP) yet has worked exclusively with the second team and slid further when Mack Hollins returned. Kelley warns drafters not to pay for Day-2 draft capital when practice reports show he is buried.

Bech’s best work comes inside, where Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers already own targets. Outside roles belong to Dont’e Thornton Jr. and Tre Tucker. At WR61 (163.8 ADP) Kelley sees a stash better left on waivers until depth-chart clarity emerges.

Jones turns 31 in December and set career highs in touches last season. Kelley notes Jordan Mason’s expected 30-40% snap share and argues Jones’ RB25 (69.8 ADP) draft slot still prices in old explosiveness that aging legs may not deliver.

Waller hasn’t cleared 700 yards since 2020 and literally retired last season. Kelley calls any investment—even TE30, 232 ADP—chasing ghosts. If that’s too deep for your draft, he’s also the low man on Tyreek Hill’s first-round ADP.

Williams’ DVOA and EPA per rush both plummeted from 2023 to 2024. Kelley expects Blake Corum and Jarquez Hunter to steal series, making Williams’ RB11 (28.5 ADP) price a wager that Sean McVay ignores more explosive options all season.

Harris is recovering from a July 4 injury yet remains RB35 (102.3 ADP). Kelley believes rookie Omarion Hampton has already seized first-team reps, making any investment in Harris until we see him healthy a wasted mid-round pick.

Mahomes finished QB11 last season and the Chiefs went 15-1 in meaningful games without needing him to air it out. Off-season upgrades amount to Elijah Mitchell plus a likely suspended Rashee Rice. Kelley says QB6 (59.9 ADP) assumes a rebound the roster does not support.

Warren is TE11 (96.1 ADP) purely off Brock Bowers hype spillover. Kelley highlighted uncertain quarterback play—Anthony Richardson Sr. rehabbing and Daniel Jones battling for the job—and pointed to the historical struggle of rookie TEs returning value.

Approaching 30 with no camp activity yet, Mixon is RB19 (49.1 ADP) behind a line Kelley still calls "in shambles." Even if activated, 2024’s 1,034 yards and 12 TDs are unlikely repeats as C.J. Stroud leans heavier on the pass.

Reed rarely plays in two-WR sets, and rookie Savion Williams should absorb gadget/backfield snaps Reed used in 2024. Kelley says taking him as WR45, 98.8 ADP—nearly tied with presumed WR1 Matthew Golden—is an efficiency pipe dream.

Detroit lost multiple starting linemen and OC Ben Johnson yet still rosters goal-line hammer David Montgomery. Kelley said those changes cap Gibbs’ ceiling and make his RB3, 5.3 ADP status risky; he’s comfortable only as a back-half RB1.

At RB22 (61.1 ADP) Harvey is being selected almost two full rounds ahead of J.K. Dobbins. Kelley noted Sean Payton’s two-back history and questions about Harvey’s pass-pro chops. He views the rookie as a waiver add once roles solidify, not a draft pick.

Camp reports rave about rookie Jaydon Blue; Miles Sanders owns the unit’s most recent 1,000-yard season, yet Williams is being drafted first at RB36, 105.1 ADP. Kelley argues drafters are assuming a lead role Mike McCarthy has not promised, making Williams a reach.

Jeudy averaged 20.8 PPR points in games started by Jameis Winston but only 8.8 without him. With Winston now a Giant, Kelley calls Jeudy’s WR34, 73.3 ADP an anchor pick in an offense still leaning on Nick Chubb and Amari Cooper.

Using FTN’s Splits Tool, Kelley showed Brown averaged 4.05 YPC in nine games with 16+ touches but 5.07 YPC when under that mark. He expects Samaje Perine and rookie Tahj Brooks to form a three-man committee, making Brown’s RB12 (29.5 ADP) price tag absurd for what is likely a 13-15 touch role.

Kelley compared Loveland’s TE12, 107.8 ADP to 2024’s Brock Bowers hangover and reminded readers rookie tight ends rarely pay off. With DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden, Cole Kmet and D’Andre Swift all demanding targets, Loveland would need historic efficiency to matter. Kelley views him as a waiver-wire watch, not a draft pick.

Despite topping 1,000 scrimmage yards in 2024, Dowdle averaged fewer yards per carry and success-rate metrics than Chuba Hubbard. Kelley expects Trevor Etienne to steal early-down work if Hubbard misses time, leaving Dowdle a reception-based floor play only. Even at RB52, 172.4 ADP, he sees little upside.

Cook vaulted to PPR RB8 last season on 18 TDs after scoring nine total his first two years. Kelley expects sharp regression and points to a three-man committee with rookie Ray Davis and veteran Ty Johnson. Cook’s contract standoff has kept him off the field all camp, raising conditioning questions. At RB14 (35.4 ADP) Kelley wants no part of that downside.

Flowers finished 2024 with 1,059 yards, five 100-yard outings and still only WR25 overall (WR36 per game). Kelley argued that paying WR25, 53.8 ADP prices for a player who already hit that mark—inside a run-first Todd Monken offense now featuring Derrick Henry, Mark Andrews and newly signed DeAndre Hopkins—is betting on an unlikely second leap. He called it drafting the absolute ceiling.

Kelley advised fading Mooney at WR50, 111.3 ADP while the veteran misses camp with a shoulder issue. He noted ADP has not yet adjusted to the injury, and any drop in speed for the vertical slot receiver torpedoes his already thin weekly volume in a run-heavy Arthur Smith attack.

Daniel Kelley said Conner does not justify his RB20, 52.7 ADP because Arizona finally has a legitimate tandem. He expects rookie Trey Benson to command early-down work and Kliff Kingsbury to lean on Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride in the pass game, shrinking rushing volume. With no receiving ceiling and durability concerns, Conner needs last year's bell-cow usage to pay off, and Kelley doubts that workload exists in 2025.