Danny Brasco leaned to the OVER on Dallas’ 7.5-win total but called it a pass at the current –165 price. He noted the Cowboys face the league’s fifth-toughest schedule and are breaking in a new head coach while Dak Prescott returns from injury, factors that make laying heavy juice unappealing. Still, Brasco expects improvement from last year’s 7-10 record thanks to Brian Schottenheimer’s offensive spark, Mike McCarthy’s veteran presence, and the fact that backup Cooper Rush managed four wins during a turbulent 2023 campaign. In Brasco’s view, the roster is capable of reaching 8-9 wins, but the number should be played only if the price comes down.

Danny Brasco leaned to the OVER on CeeDee Lamb’s 6.5 touchdown prop. He framed it as a "vibes plus volume" wager, arguing Lamb’s star status guarantees target demand regardless of how efficient Dak Prescott is. Lamb already flashed a ceiling with 12 touchdowns in 2023 and led the entire offense in red-zone targets (12). Brasco believes the arrival of George Pickens will draw away some CB1 attention and create more single-coverage looks for Lamb, while Brian Schottenheimer’s scheme historically peppers its WR1. Although Jake Ferguson still siphons some low-aDOT looks near the goal line, Brasco trusts Lamb’s established chemistry with Dak and his proven red-zone chops to eclipse the modest 6.5 line.

Danny Brasco told listeners to ignore the Chargers’ current +2500 Super Bowl number, putting their true win probability around 2%. Converting that 2% chance implies a fair price closer to 45-to-1, so +2500 gives bettors less than half the payout they should demand. Brasco stressed that his bullish regular-season outlook (10-plus wins) does not automatically translate into hoisting the Lombardi because Los Angeles would still have to survive an AFC gauntlet of the Chiefs, Ravens, Bills, Texans and Bengals—teams he believes have higher ceilings and more playoff-tested rosters. Until the books hang something in the 40s, Brasco is sitting out any Chargers title tickets.

Danny Brasco backed the Chargers to clear their 9.5-win total at –110 and reach double-digits. Brasco framed Jim Harbaugh’s first season as a throw-back, trench-warfare makeover: the front office added Najee Harris in free agency, drafted Amariyon Hampton, selected Joe Alt in the first round and signed Mekhi Becton to create a mauling right side. With a run-first identity taking pressure off Justin Herbert, Brasco believes Los Angeles can steal early victories—he even called for an upset of Kansas City in the Brazil opener—then mine softer spots versus the Raiders (twice), Jaguars, Titans and Dolphins. Even with a tough closing stretch, Brasco projected Herbert plus the beefed-up ground game to secure win No. 10.

Danny Brasco picked the Detroit Lions to win the NFC North, noting that he is fading Minnesota at +400 and is unconvinced the Packers have surpassed Detroit’s roster. Brasco’s case hinged on head coach Dan Campbell’s ultra-aggressive fourth-down philosophy—"Riverboat Dan" routinely steals possessions by going for it on 4th-and-short and calling fake punts, moves Brasco believes will again swing tight games in Detroit’s favor. He emphasized continuity on both lines and a returning core that already claimed the division last season. While Brasco acknowledged he may tweak the call closer to Week 1, he currently advises bettors to back the Lions at the top of the NFC North market.

Danny Brasco recommended a futures bet on Justin Jefferson to win Offensive Player of the Year at +1600, preferring it to Jefferson’s 1,200.5-yard over/under. Brasco argued that Kevin O’Connell’s scheme and Jefferson’s elite YAC ability mean the receiver can post gaudy numbers even if rookie J.J. McCarthy is limited to quick screens and short throws. He noted Jefferson’s top-tier receiving corps with Jordan Addison guarantees defensive attention can’t fully tilt toward him, and award voters have shown they will honor statistical dominance even if the team misses the playoffs. Brasco framed +1600 as “worth a sprinkle” because Jefferson’s ceiling—highlight-reel splash plays and league-leading yardage—could make him an award outlier regardless of Minnesota’s record.

Danny Brasco said he is taking the plus-120 side of the Vikings under 8.5 wins despite the market juicing the over to –145. He expects rookie QB J.J. McCarthy to struggle with NFL speed and questions his durability at his size. Brasco stressed that left-tackle Christian Darrisaw’s lingering injury issues and a still-gelling offensive line are big worries even after adding veteran center Ryan Kelly. He walked through the schedule: a potentially encouraging 5-game start (Bears, Falcons, Bengals, Steelers, Browns) before a Week-6 bye, followed by a brutal post-bye gauntlet—Eagles, Chargers, Lions, Ravens, Bears, Packers, Seahawks, Commanders, Cowboys, Giants, and finishing with Lions and Packers again. Brasco said he “can’t find that ninth win,” projecting 6–7 victories and advising bettors to fade the Vikings’ win total.

Danny Brasco agreed with R.J. that –170 is an unattractive price to bet the Steelers to miss the postseason, but he still expects them to fall short of a wildcard. Brasco emphasized that Aaron Rodgers has publicly hinted 2025 will be his last ride and, at 41, may not finish the year on a high note. He thinks the final AFC playoff berths are more likely to land with the Broncos or Chargers, two teams sporting younger quarterbacks and more explosive offenses. Consequently, Brasco advised passing on Pittsburgh’s YES/+140 because it is "dangling a carrot" that relies on Tomlin magic, and he would only consider betting the NO if the line dropped closer to –130.

Danny Brasco echoed the bearish stance on Pittsburgh, leaning under 8.5 wins after seeing the price move to –135. Brasco projected an 8–9 finish, arguing Rodgers’ diminished escapability, a thin receiver corps, and Arthur Smith’s low-octane scheme cap the offense’s ceiling. While the defense looks menacing on paper, he warned a couple injuries could quickly erode that edge, leaving the Steelers unable to keep pace with Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson in the AFC North.

Danny Brasco liked the over 7.5 touchdown prop on DK Metcalf at +120. He reminded listeners that Metcalf once banked 12 scores on just 75 catches and under 1,000 yards, showing he doesn’t need massive volume to find pay-dirt. With George Pickens gone, Metcalf is the unquestioned WR1 opposite only Pat Freiermuth in the red zone pecking order. Brasco expects Aaron Rodgers to lean on his new jump-ball alpha near the pylon, pointing to Rodgers’ history of force-feeding his top target (see Garrett Wilson last year). Eight spikes feels attainable even if yardage lags.

Danny Brasco is playing the Topuria ‘wins in rounds 1 or 2’ prop, arguing that recent history shows opponents cannot survive ten minutes with El Matador. Brasco highlighted Topuria’s sequencing against Volkanovski and Holloway: spend one round downloading reads, then land the rising left hook that detonates chins. Oliveira’s pressure style actually accelerates that kill window—he will march straight into counters instead of forcing Topuria to hunt. Brasco added that Charles still eats shots with his head on the center line, and Topuria’s Georgian-grade bone density means he will willingly plant and trade without fear. Given Oliveira’s own early-fight chaos and historically shaky damage management (dropped in five of his last seven bouts), Brasco expects a clean knockout well before the third-round bell and sees the R1-2 prop as the optimal payout on Topuria’s inevitable statement.

Danny Brasco grabbed Brandon Royval as a slight dog, insisting the number underrates proven elite experience. Royval already has five-round wars with champ Alexandre Pantoja and a victory over Brandon Moreno on his resume, whereas Joshua Van has yet to face a ranked opponent. Brasco loves Royval’s twitchy feints, long knees up the middle and chaotic scramble game that forces exchanges Van has never seen. Van walks forward behind crisp boxing, but Brasco warns that forward pressure feeds perfectly into Royval’s intercepting knees and opportunistic front-headlock series. On the mat, Royval averages 1.4 submission attempts per minute and has “been in every position imaginable” against world-class grapplers. Brasco thinks Van’s skill set is exciting but unfinished; at plus money he’d “rather back the finished product who has already solved championship-level puzzles.”

Danny Brasco folded Renato Moicano +3.5 rounds into a spread parlay, banking on the Brazilian to win at least one frame against Beneil Dariush. Brasco thinks Dariush’s once-elite durability has eroded after back-to-back knockout losses, pointing to Matheus Gamrot wobbling him and Charles Oliveira finishing him inside a round. Moicano, by contrast, owns a nuanced jab-cross arsenal and underrated ground game that forces opponents to respect both levels. Brasco referenced the earlier panel discussion that Dariush’s wrestling scrambles could cancel out some of Moicano’s jiu-jitsu, making extended striking exchanges likely. If that happens, Brasco trusts Moicano’s fresher chin and 4.98 strikes landed per minute to steal at least one of the 10-point-must frames, cashing the +3.5 ticket even in a competitive loss.

Danny Brasco grabbed Jack “The Joker” Hermansson at +3.5 rounds on the judge’s scorecard spread, meaning the ticket cashes if Hermansson wins outright or loses 29-28 or better. Brasco expects Hermansson’s veteran savvy—lateral movement, calf-kicks, quick jab and opportunistic takedowns—to frustrate the explosive but occasionally one-dimensional Gregory Rodrigues in the larger pay-per-view octagon. He reminded listeners that Rodrigues slowed noticeably when forced to work against Jared Cannonier and others, while Hermansson showed against Joe Pyfer that he can survive early power, make adjustments and surge late. Given Hermansson’s durability (only two stoppage losses since 2017) and his ability to bank a round with wrestling, Brasco sees the plus-money spread as safer than a money-line sprinkle and a creative way to fade Rodrigues’ feast-or-famine style.

Danny Brasco gave a light lean to the Eagles over 11.5 wins (–118). He cited recency bias toward their late-season dominance and lauded a returning offensive line that can control tempo and mask defensive lapses. Though OC Kellen Moore departed, Brasco trusts the personnel to keep the scheme humming. On defense, losses of Brandon Graham and Darius Slay are offset by adding Adoree Jackson while still boasting Jordan Davis and a deep front. Provided health cooperates, he believes Philadelphia’s roster quality supports a 12-win ceiling.

Danny Brasco preferred the over on 11.5 wins despite acknowledging the Chiefs’ narrow escapes last year. He reminded listeners that Kansas City still went 15-2 while missing Rashee Rice early, losing Isaiah Pacheco to injury and getting a down season from Travis Kelce. Andy Reid’s track record of finding answers convinces Brasco the Chiefs survive a front-loaded slate and feast late; their final four games—Chargers, Titans, Broncos and Raiders—are all winnable. He doubts Denver’s offense with rookie QB Bo Nix and sees the Broncos’ thin WR group and Chargers’ rebuild as reasons Kansas City can still bully the division. Brasco projects a tightrope season but expects the twelfth win to cash the over.

Danny Brasco labeled Jasmine Jasudavicius -3.5 rounds his top play, meaning she must either finish Jessica Andrade or win every frame on at least two scorecards. Brasco predicts Jasudavicius will overwhelm Andrade with size and wrestling, dragging her down early and often for extended top-control stretches. He even sees a potential 10-8 if Andrade survives but cannot get back to her feet. Because a finish or a 30-27 (or better) cashes the spread, Brasco prefers this angle to the straight money-line and urges bettors to 'play it every way you can' given what he views as a dominant stylistic edge.

Danny Brasco said he is jumping on Belal Muhammad now that the money-line has crashed to −175 from an opener around −250. Brasco explained that the mere threat of Muhammad’s takedown changes the striking dynamic—once Belal shoots, Jack Della Maddalena’s hands drop and the boxing lanes open for the American. He cited Maddalena’s close calls against Bassil Hafez and Gilbert Burns, noting both exposed JDM’s defensive wrestling and that the Aussie has never been beyond three rounds. By contrast, Muhammad’s cardio is built for five-round grinds and he trains with the same Khabib-style camp that sharpened his chain wrestling. Brasco believes that combination of proven gas tank, stylistic edge, and the market over-correcting toward JDM makes Muhammad a must-bet before the line rebounds.

Danny Brasco sided with an "And NEW" outcome, touting Manon Fiorot’s southpaw kick-boxing and elite 93 percent takedown defense as kryptonite for Shevchenko. He labeled Fiorot the best pure striker Shevchenko has faced outside of Amanda Nunes, highlighting side-kicks and range control that will force the champion to operate at an uncomfortable distance. Brasco praised Fiorot’s clinch knees, Muay Thai plum, and proven five-round gas tank—citing her strong Round 5 against Blanchfield where she ate a head-kick yet stayed composed. Because Fiorot can stuff shots and pick at Valentina from range, Brasco thinks she edges a competitive decision to bring France its first UFC title.

Danny Brasco presents a conservative, but highly-confident two-leg moneyline parlay. Leg one features Nora Cornolle at -175 odds to defeat Hailey Cowan. Cornolle is a skilled French kickboxer, efficient in Muay Thai clinch striking—a stylistic edge against Cowan who Brasco believes lacks UFC-level wrestling and striking. The second leg includes UFC veteran Michal Oleksiejczuk, praised for consistency and sufficient UFC experience. Brasco highlights Cornolle's distinct striking and clinch advantage, combined with Oleksiejczuk's proven reliability, to form this straightforward yet secure parlay.

Danny Brasco favors Michal Oleksiejczuk against Sedriques Dumas, specifically targeting an inside-the-distance finish. Though acknowledging Dumas' wrestling ability, Brasco sees a clear talent gap favoring Oleksiejczuk based on his extensive UFC experience and superior level of recent competition, exemplified by a quality striking performance against ranked opponents like Kevin Holland. Brasco specifically highlights Oleksiejczuk's switch to the elite Fighting Nerds gym. After experiencing a tough defeat to standout prospect Caio Borralho, Oleksiejczuk proactively joined Borralho's camp and now benefits from training and corner assistance from Borralho, significantly elevating his overall skill ceiling and likelihood of finishing Dumas inside the distance.

Danny Brasco strongly backs Nora Cornolle against Hailey Cowan due to her significant striking advantage inside the Muay Thai clinch. Highlighting Cornolle's ability to utilize damaging knees and elbows effectively from the plum grip, Brasco expects plenty of opportunities as Cowan attempts grapple-heavy attacks. Brasco believes Cowan, primarily a grappler who he considers not UFC-caliber, will struggle significantly to take Cornolle down, leaving Cowan vulnerable to Cornolle's clinch striking offense. He emphasizes Cornolle's overall damage upside and superior striking as decisive factors.

Danny Brasco confidently backs Virna Jandiroba to secure a submission against Yan Xiaonan at strong plus odds (+260). Citing Jandiroba's highly technical grappling, dangerous back-takes, and lethal arm bars (demonstrated recently when she submitted Amanda Lemos), Brasco predicts Jandiroba will control Xiaonan positions repeatedly. While usually wary of elite fighters risking position for submissions, Brasco fully endorses Jandiroba's aggressive submission attempts because of her unmatched grappling skill set. This makes the submission prop particularly attractive given the stylistic matchup and perceived grappling mismatch favoring Virna.