Dave Tuley said the betting market has inflated Philadelphia from the -2.5 advance line to -3.5 even though both clubs are 3-0. He prefers taking Tampa Bay +3.5 straight rather than teasing it, arguing the spread now reflects nothing more than public love for the defending champs. Tuley reminded readers that the Buccaneers have lived in tight games (3-0 by a combined six points) and showed they can score late, rallying past the Jets 29-27 last week. Conversely, the Eagles needed a blocked field-goal return on the final snap to escape with a 33-26 miracle cover, so they have hardly cruised. He acknowledged Baker Mayfield’s right-biceps listing but noted the quarterback is expected to play, giving Tampa its full offensive arsenal. With a live home dog used to nail-biters, a healthy Mayfield, and an arguably bloated number, Tuley recommends grabbing the Buccaneers +3.5.

San Francisco is a short ‑2 favorite, letting Tuley boost Arizona to +8, his favorite leg of the week. The Cardinals nearly squandered a late lead versus Carolina but still covered, and he anticipates another close NFC West tilt. He is pairing Arizona with every other qualifying side on his card.

With most shops sitting Chargers ‑2.5, Tuley teased Denver to +8.5/+9. He views the matchup as a measuring stick for his preseason Broncos-to-make-playoffs ticket and expects a tight AFC West battle. If contest lines hit +3 he may also play Denver straight, but the teaser is his official position.

After the line drifted to Steelers ‑1.5, Tuley teased New England up to +7.5, banking on coach Mike Vrabel’s historical success as an underdog. Moving through 3 and 7 creates a classic Wong teaser. Tuley sees little separating the teams and views the extra cushion as critical in what profiles as a defensive slog.

Seattle opened ‑8.5 but slid to ‑7/-7.5, putting them on Tuley’s teaser card at ‑1/-1.5. He prefers the proven home favorite to the erratic Saints in their first road game. This is his lone chalk leg in a dog-heavy portfolio.

Jacksonville is a modest ‑2 favorite, allowing Tuley to lift Houston to +8 on a 6-point teaser. The Texans are 0-2 but have lost by just five and one point, while Jacksonville let a Burrow-less Cincinnati steal a 31-27 win. In a pivotal AFC South clash he expects to come down to the wire, the teaser cushion provides strong value.

With Minnesota laying 3, Tuley prioritised Cincinnati as a 6-point teaser piece up to +8.5/+9, crossing both key numbers. Backup QB Jake Browning showed competency in last week’s 31-27 comeback over Jacksonville, while the Vikings lost J.J. McCarthy to injury, keeping the matchup volatile. Tuley expects another one-score finish and will pair the Bengals with several other Wong-style legs.

Tuley locked in Detroit +4.5 for Monday night. He envisions a high-scoring game between two explosive offenses that both evened their records to 1-1 with Week 2 blowouts. The opener touched BAL ‑6.5 before sharp money drove it down; Circa splits show only 33 % of tickets on Detroit but 48 % of the handle, indicating larger wagers on the dog. Tuley thinks the contest ultimately swings on a late field goal, making anything above +3 valuable.

Despite Justin Fields being ruled out with a concussion, Tuley played New York +6.5, noting substitute QB Tyrod Taylor’s sparkling 33-21-4 ATS career mark (61.1 %). The number actually dipped from TB ‑7 to ‑6.5 after the quarterback switch, suggesting odds-makers view Taylor as only a small downgrade. Tuley expects the veteran’s conservative style to keep the Jets within a touchdown.

Tuley grabbed Carolina +6 after the line ballooned from ATL ‑2.5 on the look-ahead to ‑6 post-Falcons SNF win. DraftKings’ splits show 78 % of tickets and 86 % of handle on Atlanta, a signal he loves to fade. The Panthers rallied late to cover +7 versus Arizona last week, reinforcing their back-door potential. He’s betting the market move is an overreaction and projects a one-score game.