Barnett is willing to back Cam Young at +140 for a top-10 finish and considers the 30-to-1 outright a fringe sprinkle. Young’s length fits East Lake’s par-5s, and Barnett highlighted that Young still needs Ryder Cup points, giving him rare extra motivation compared to many in the field.

Barnett pegged Ludvig Aberg at 16-to-1 as his other outright dart. After a quiet mid-season Aberg is "starting to show back up again," just in time for the Ryder Cup, and Barnett believes that surge in form gives him the second-best shot of catching Scheffler at East Lake.

Barnett called Viktor Hovland one of only two players with a real chance to chase down Scheffler and likes the 28-to-1 outright as well as the +130 top-10. His case: Hovland has already won at East Lake, and the iron play "has looked unbelievably good lately—kind of back to vintage Victor." Barnett thinks that combination of course history and resurgent approach play makes Hovland the best value on the board behind the favorite.

David Barnett said Scottie Scheffler is the only logical outright this week. Barnett called Scheffler "unstoppable," noting the Sunday chip-in at BMW, the fact that he already banked $15 million for leading the FedEx Cup through Wyndham and BMW, and that he very nearly won St. Jude with a replacement caddie. He added that East Lake is only about 7,500 yards and sits on familiar Bermuda greens—both traits that accent Scheffler’s strengths better than longer venues such as Caves Valley. Because Barnett sees no course where Scheffler can’t win and believes the staggered format actually helps him, his betting card starts and largely ends with Scheffler outright, possibly paired with a single top-10 prop to juice odds.

David Barnett said the Tour Championship betting card basically begins and ends with Scottie Scheffler at +150. Barnett pointed out that Scheffler has already banked $23.9 million in 18 starts this season, winning five times and finishing inside the top-10 in 15 of those events. He reminded listeners that Scheffler gained 10.5 strokes on the field at East Lake last year en route to the title and now faces only 29 opponents with no starting-stroke cushion required. Oddsmakers list Scheffler at a prohibitive –1250 just to finish top-10, underscoring how dominant his baseline is. In Barnett’s view, the combination of elite recent form, proven course history and the small, no-cut field justifies eating the short price and locking in the outright even at +150.

Barnett said Hideki Matsuyama’s outright price sliding from 50-1 to 40-1 still leaves meat on the bone. He called the Japanese star’s recent approach numbers ‘vintage Hideki’— gaining 5+ strokes with the irons at both the Scottish and FedEx St. Jude— while noting the short game has quietly gained strokes in six of seven starts. The only leak is driver accuracy, but Barnett is willing to live with a few missed fairways at Wilmington where rough is modest and Hideki’s historically elite scrambling (7th on TOUR) can bail him out. Barnett concluded Matsuyama’s long-term win rate (8 PGA victories) is far higher than most names in the 40-1 range, making him a must-add to the outright card.

Barnett jumped on Chris Gotterup even after the number shortened from 45-1 to 35-1, citing a perfect Bethpage prototype for the Rutgers product: monster driver (317-yard carry average), aggressive scoring mentality, and Northeast familiarity. Although Gotterup lost nearly four strokes on approach over the first two rounds at TPC Southwind, Barnett highlighted his bounce-back Sunday where he gained 2.7 strokes ball-striking, framing it as evidence the swing tweak clicked. With Ryder Cup chatter growing louder— Gotterup sits well outside the points but could make noise with a playoff win— Barnett thinks the upside outweighs the recent volatility and likes attaching himself to the ceiling price while the market frets about one bad week.

Barnett flagged Kurt Kitayama at +300 for a top-10 as his favourite placement bet. With only 49 players teeing it up, he framed 3-1 as ‘better than most NFL money-line dogs’ and argued Kitayama’s recent form (T2, T11, T9 last three starts) plus 2nd-place ranking in the Bet-The-Number model makes the price a steal. Kitayama has gained at least 1.2 strokes on approach in five consecutive events and is 4th in total driving carry over the same span— two skills Barnett thinks are mandatory at Wilmington. He added the Ryder Cup carrot (Kitayama needs a win or high finish to impress captains) as an intangible that should keep the foot on the gas through Sunday.

Barnett followed Cameron Young with Ben Griffin at 35-1, noting that Griffin graded 5th in the Bet-The-Number model and shockingly ranked near the top of the field in driving-carry distance— a metric usually dominated by bombers. Barnett admitted he underestimated Griffin’s power but pointed out that the lefty sits 3rd in the field in strokes-gained approach over the last eight rounds and has gained with the putter in six straight events. Barnett called Griffin “freaking dialed right now” and said a win doesn’t feel crazy on a course that rewards carry distance and hot irons, making 35-1 a number he wanted to grab before it shortens.

David Barnett said Cameron Young was the first name that stopped him when scrolling the odds board and immediately clicked the 30-1 outright. Barnett argued the Wilmington routing rewards heavy drivers who can carry bunkers, a skill Young flashed when he ranked 6th in total driving carry in the Bet-The-Number database. He added that Young sits 14th in the Ryder Cup standings, giving him added motivation to keep his foot on the gas, and pointed to Young’s last five starts (four top-25s with +1.4 strokes-gained tee-to-green per round) as proof the ball-striking has rounded back into form. With no cut in a 49-man field and the “monkey off his back” after last season’s playoff win, Barnett believes Young’s win equity is meaningfully higher than his 30-1 price implies.

Barnett labeled Xander Schauffele an avoid for both betting cards and DFS builds, saying the American "is not fully himself" at the moment. While Caves Valley is expected to reward bombers and hot putters, Barnett does not believe Schauffele’s current ball-striking consistency is sharp enough to keep pace with Scheffler or the other heavy hitters in what should again be a birdie-fest (projected winning score 18-under or better). Given Xander’s premium price and recent underwhelming finishes, Barnett prefers to deploy salary-cap or outright units elsewhere.

David Barnett advised passing on Rory McIlroy in outright and DFS builds for the BMW. Barnett’s read is that McIlroy is treating Caves Valley primarily as a warm-up for next week’s Tour Championship at East Lake, so he doubts Rory will press the gas pedal the way Scheffler will. Although the setup should suit McIlroy’s length, Barnett questioned whether the competitive edge will be there in a no-cut event that offers limited FedExCup upside for a player already safely through. The combination of presumed lower motivation and a likely high ownership tag makes Rory a fade in Barnett’s view.

Barnett likes Aaron Rai at +240 for a top-10, explaining that if Rai doesn’t win he still expects a big week because the Englishman sits 14th on the European Ryder-Cup standings and is hovering near the critical top-50 FedEx-Cup cutoff. That extra incentive plus solid recent form make the plus-money finish attractive.

Barnett called Xander Schauffele at +135 for a top-10 finish "a lock," pointing out the hosts already like him outright. In a 69-man field, Barnett believes any plus-money on Xander’s floor-high profile is a must bet.

Barnett said Chris Kirk "gets me the most at 100-to-1," separating him from the other long shots. The host sees Kirk’s all-around game as suited to Southwind and trusts him to "close the door" if he gets in contention, making the triple-digit number too tempting to pass up.

Barnett floated Denny McCarthy as a long-shot outright, noting McCarthy finished 11th last week, carries "decent form," and is one of the tour’s best putters. Because TPC Southwind features "pure Bermuda" greens—his favorite surface—Barnett believes the setup could line up for McCarthy’s first PGA-Tour victory.

Barnett said he prefers Harris English over most others in the mid-30s outright band, calling it "tough to ignore how well he's playing right now." With English showing sustained form heading into the playoffs, Barnett feels bettors can safely click his name in the same range as Berger while still getting ceiling win equity.

Barnett pushed Hideki Matsuyama at 40-to-1, noting the Japanese star is the defending champion and that his iron play "is back" after flashing vintage form at The Open. In a strong but limited-field playoff event where elite approach play usually wins, Barnett considers those odds too long for a player with recent ball-striking momentum and proven success on the track.

David Barnett said he is backing Daniel Berger in both the outright and placement markets at TPC Southwind. Barnett reminded listeners that two of Berger’s four PGA-Tour wins came on this course, calling him a textbook fit because “he’s going to hit fairways” and remains an elite ball-striker. After having Berger on the show earlier in the week, Barnett was encouraged by the player’s own words: Berger feels he has a real edge chipping out of the pure Bermuda around the greens and was noticeably ‘cocky’ about where his game sits. That combination of proven course history, specific short-game comfort on the grass type, and visible self-belief led Barnett to label Berger a buy in all betting formats this week.

David Barnett reminded listeners that two of Daniel Berger’s four career victories came at TPC Southwind and said he is punching the ticket at the mid-40s number. After interviewing Berger earlier in the week, Barnett reported the Floridian is openly bullish on his current ball-striking and believes he has a unique advantage chipping off the sticky Bermuda surrounds. Even during Berger’s injury-plagued 2023, he still gained strokes tee-to-green in three of his last four measured events. With comfort on the property and renewed confidence, Barnett sees ceiling-winning potential that the books are undervaluing.

Barnett flagged Aaron Rai as a high-ceiling GPP play rather than an outright ticket. Rai has gained a staggering 19 strokes on approach across his last eight measured rounds (The Open + Wyndham), leads the field in fairways hit during that stretch, and traditionally over-performs on par-70 layouts under 7,300 yards—an exact description of TPC Southwind. While name recognition will keep his DraftKings ownership modest, Barnett believes the iron play alone justifies overweight exposure, especially in single-entry contests.

Barnett called Matt Fitzpatrick "very, very dialed" and was happy to take the 30-1 number. He highlighted Fitzpatrick’s sea of green on recent strokes-gained charts—positive in every category over his past four starts, including +1.2 SG:Approach per round since the Scottish Open. With a top-12 Ryder Cup spot hanging in the balance, Barnett expects added motivation. Southwind’s small greens should reward Fitzpatrick’s elite wedge game; he ranks top-5 in the field from 100-150 yards over the last 24 rounds. Barnett sees him as a core outright and top-10 bet.

David Barnett grabbed Chris Kirk at triple-digit odds, citing a perfect confluence of recent form and course fit. Barnett noted Kirk has gained strokes tee-to-green in six straight starts, is coming off back-to-back top-25 finishes, and historically gains over half a stroke per round on Bermuda greens. Southwind rewards players who keep it in the short grass, and Barnett pointed out Kirk ranks inside the field’s top 10 in fairways hit over the last 24 rounds. With outright prices as short as 60-1 appearing at other shops, Barnett argued the 100-1 available early in the week is simply mis-priced.

Barnett flagged Emiliano Grillo at +320 for a top-20 as “way too long” given the Argentine’s current form. Earlier in the show he called Grillo’s outright price ‘stupid’ because the veteran is striking his irons as well as anyone in the mid-tier. With Sedgefield offering almost no driving advantage and turning into a wedge contest, Barnett wants to bet on the player who is already gaining strokes on approach almost every week. He argued that an elite ball-striker who’s been living on the first two pages of leaderboards all summer should be closer to +200 in this market, making the 3.2-to-1 ticket a clear value play.

David Barnett staked a nine-to-one ticket on Harry Higgs to finish inside the top-20 at Sedgefield. Barnett reminded listeners that Higgs has teed it up here four times and already logged a top-20 despite generally poor course form in prior seasons. What swings the value this year, according to Barnett, is trajectory: Higgs has rattled off three straight top-30 finishes (T25, T24, T28) and his iron play is finally perking up—exactly what the wedge-heavy Donald Ross layout demands. Barnett thinks the combination of renewed confidence, positive recent ball-striking and proven comfort on slick Bermuda greens justifies the long 9-1 number for a simple placement bet, especially for bettors who don’t want to chase the 300-1 outright ticket he recommended earlier in the show.

David Barnett admitted he “hates betting Brian Campbell,” yet could not ignore the ceiling at 200-to-250-1. Barnett dubbed Campbell “Jim Herman on steroids,” pointing out the American has already won twice on Tour—once on a course that didn’t even suit him. Sedgefield, by contrast, rewards Campbell’s strengths: extreme fairway accuracy (Barnett joked he’s hitting “120 percent of his fairways”) and a hot putter that has produced victories on Passpalum, Bent and Bermuda this season. Barnett added this is Campbell’s last realistic chance to grab a win before Ryder Cup selections, so motivation is sky-high. With the Wyndham often turning into a putting contest and longshots having a history of breaking through, Barnett is willing to fire an outright ticket and sprinkle top-10/20 props on Campbell as a pure ceiling play.

Barnett called Emiliano Grillo’s 75-to-80-1 odds “stupid,” arguing the Argentine is “playing really good golf” and should be priced alongside the 40-to-50-1 names. While he did not rattle off individual metrics, Barnett emphasized Grillo’s recent form surge and reliable iron game—traits that traditionally thrive at Sedgefield’s wedge-heavy setup. Convinced the market is undervaluing him, Barnett is locking in outright and each-way exposure before books adjust.

Barnett admitted he “usually never” bets Christiaan Bezuidenhout but is taking the plunge at 70-1 because the South African pops in his stat-heavy model. He likened Bezuidenhout’s skill set to Aaron Rai—accurate off the tee, tidy wedges, dependable Bermuda putting—attributes that have repeatedly produced winners at Sedgefield. While Bezuidenhout is still hunting his first PGA Tour title, Barnett thinks the course fit and steady recent play make 70-1 a mis-price worth exploiting in outrights and each-way wagers.

David Barnett circled Lucas Glover at 40-1, saying the veteran "can win out of nowhere, especially on a course where he feels good." Barnett reminded listeners he cashed Glover’s outright ticket at Sedgefield before and that Glover is “hitting it well again” while historically thriving on Bermuda greens. Because the Wyndham rewards precise irons over power, Barnett believes course familiarity plus present ball-striking form create a realistic path to a second Wyndham trophy, making 40-1 a number worth building cards around.

David Barnett fired a 300-1 “nuclear bomb” on Harry Higgs, pointing to Higgs’ recent form line of T25 last week, T24 at Rocket Mortgage and T28 in Mexico, plus a 15th-place finish at Sedgefield two years ago. Barnett added that Higgs’ approach numbers are “looking good again,” giving him the kind of iron form necessary on a wedge-heavy Donald Ross layout. With demonstrated course comfort and a momentum spike, Barnett believes “Big Daddy” can shock the field and pay off lottery-ticket outright bets while providing ultra-low-owned DFS leverage.

David Barnett said he is backing Aaron Rai outright and in DFS at Sedgefield. Barnett reminded listeners that Rai "went bananas" here last year, gaining a pile of strokes on approach on his way to the win. That specific skill is critical this week because Sedgefield offers very little room to separate off-the-tee – it is short, tight and ranks near the bottom in strokes gained driving. With 72% of greens typically hit, Barnett wants players who can stuff wedges and mid-irons from the 150-to-190-yard bucket and then catch a hot putter on slick Bermuda. Rai excels at both: he is one of the Tour’s most accurate drivers, giving him more fairway lies than the field, and he already proved he can handle the Donald Ross green complexes under tournament pressure. Barnett concluded that the Englishman’s course fit plus obvious comfort make him a strong bet to contend again despite the difficulty of repeating on Tour.

David Barnett floated Nick Dunlap as an 8-to-1 ‘moonshot’ top-20. Dunlap missed the cut at the Barracuda after a brutal second-round 79, but Barnett pointed out that the rookie actually gained strokes on approach and lost most of his ground off the tee. With TPC Twin Cities offering some of the Tour’s widest fairways and softened landing areas after recent rain, Barnett expects Dunlap’s inaccuracy to be masked. If the irons stay hot— he has gained on approach in four of his last six measured starts— Barnett believes a weekend run into the top 20 is well within range, making the +800 price too juicy to pass.

David Barnett circled Garrick Higgo as his favorite deep outright at 150-1. Barnett argued that the South African’s two career PGA Tour wins, including one earlier this season, prove he can spike when the driver clicks. TPC Twin Cities rewards raw distance and birdie streaks— ‘hit ball far, hit ball close, make ball roll’ in Barnett’s words— so Higgo’s 320-yard average carry gives him the same ceiling as Cam Davis but at a much longer price. With his 2025 card already locked up, Higgo can swing freely, and Barnett would rather pay for that volatility than chase Davis or other names in similar form at shorter numbers.

David Barnett urged listeners to pass on Sam Burns at 18-to-1. While Burns’ recent finishes look better, Barnett noted continued volatility with mid-irons— the exact bucket TPC Twin Cities demands— and emphasized that the course’s wide fairways neutralize Burns’ usual driving edge. He also flagged travel fatigue: Burns played the Scottish swing and Open before flying back to Minnesota, an itinerary Barnett thinks makes it hard to peak for a low-prestige birdie-fest expected to push −20. With prices compressed at the top, Barnett prefers longer numbers on better iron players and stated flatly, “I don’t think him or Burns wins this week.” He is fading Burns in outrights and head-to-head match-ups.

David Barnett identified Kurt Kitayama as a value outright at 40-1. Kitayama’s ball-striking numbers have rebounded, with three straight events gaining both off the tee and on approach. He finished T6 at this tournament last year and owns the high-speed driver-wedge combo that thrives on a bomber-friendly TPC Twin Cities layout featuring four par-5s and few long-iron approaches. Currently 110th in FedEx Cup points, Kitayama needs a big week to secure top-100 status, a motivational edge Barnett likes to target in late-season events. Between the trending irons, proven course fit, and added urgency, Barnett is betting an outright and sprinkling a top-10 prop.

David Barnett called Cameron Champ a must–bet in the mid-range outright market. Champ grades out #1 in the BetTheNumber custom model, has already lifted the trophy at TPC Twin Cities, and is quietly trending with top-25 finishes at the Canadian Open, John Deere and last week’s ISCO while gaining stacks of strokes off the tee. Barnett reminded listeners that Twin Cities is bomber-friendly— 63 % fairways hit, 69 % GIR, four reachable par-5s— which amplifies Champ’s elite driving and par-5 birdie rate. The putter and wedges have been serviceable, and Barnett thinks if either weapon spikes for a single week Champ will contend. Sitting 132nd in FedEx Cup points, Champ also owns extra motivation to crack the top-100 cut for full 2026 status. At 50-to-1 (books range 45-60), Barnett is firing an outright and a top-10 ticket.

David Barnett reiterated that bettors should not be scared away by Scottie Scheffler’s shrinking outright prices because he doesn’t see the run ending "for a while." Barnett pointed to Scheffler’s four-shot Open Championship victory, his ability to stay loose enough to joke with Hao-Tong Li mid-round, and the mental "hack" of keeping golf in healthy perspective as reasons the rest of the tour still trails by multiple shots. Until another player closes the gap, Barnett is comfortable treating Scheffler like the Tiger-era auto-bet and will keep hammering outright markets even at single-digit numbers.

David Barnett said he fully expects Scottie Scheffler to finish off the career Grand Slam and encouraged listeners to think about long-term futures markets that still price that outcome plus-money. Barnett rattled off several reasons for the confidence: Scheffler just matched Tiger Woods’ pace with exactly 1,197 days between his first and fourth major wins, showing the same historic trajectory. Unlike Brooks Koepka, whose run stalled after injuries and the distraction of LIV money, Scheffler turned down nine-figure offers and keeps golf in healthy perspective, calling it ‘not my identity’ but something he loves to do. Barnett argued that this emotional freedom is a competitive hack in a game as mental as golf, helping Scheffler avoid the self-inflicted slumps that have derailed other stars. Unless a freak injury strikes, Barnett does not see money, motivation, or swing tinkering getting in Scheffler’s way, and he noted the 2026 PGA Championship (the only leg still missing) is scheduled for Valhalla, a course that favors elite tee-to-green players like Scheffler. All signs point to eventual completion of the slam, making any current futures number longer than even money a long-term value bet.

David Barnett declared himself a lifelong Jordan Smith truther and is firing on the Englishman at +320 for a top-20 finish. Barnett relayed Sky Sports analyst Wayne “Radar” Riley’s high praise—calling Smith “the man” on the DP circuit—and highlighted Smith’s consistent tee-to-green excellence that just needs an average putting week to pop. At 110-1 outright Smith is tempting, but Barnett prefers banking the plus-money placement given Smith’s track record of cashing top-20 tickets on firm European layouts.

David Barnett tagged Harry Hall as a juicy 60-1 outright and top-20 target. Hall is gaining strokes with both the short game and irons, and Barnett emphasized that his modest losses off the tee (roughly field average) are nowhere near the disaster zone of someone like Brian Campbell. Hall finished T60 here last year but arrives in far better form and owns the kind of elite scrambling Barnett expects to separate in firm, wind-affected conditions. With bookmakers still pricing him as a fringe contender, Barnett recommended adding Hall to outright cards and loading top-20 tickets while the market sleeps.

David Barnett urged caution on Ludvig Aberg despite the tempting 30-1 price. Barnett admitted Aberg’s ceiling as an elite ball-striker and referenced last year’s T4 finish, but pointed to the Swede’s recent short-game slump—"his scrambling has been not good"—at a venue where Barnett expects around-the-green play to matter more because of the anticipated dry, bouncy conditions. Given that weakness and the premium links courses place on imaginative recovery shots, Barnett does not believe Aberg currently has the all-around skill set to justify an outright ticket and prefers fading him in matchup and placement markets until the short game turns around.

David Barnett said bettors should ignore Brian Campbell’s eye-catching 600-to-1 price at the Genesis because his two wins are smoke and mirrors. Barnett noted Campbell has actually LOST strokes off the tee in virtually every start –-4.0 at the John Deere and –-4.6 in just two rounds at the U.S. Open – while posting only one other finish better than 32nd all season. The Georgia alum averages well below Tour length, and Barnett pointed out that when Campbell does pull driver he "quiffs" it all over the place, giving away any precision advantage. Barnett views both victories as pure variance in weak fields (Mexico and John Deere) where competitors like Aldrich and Emiliano Grillo collapsed late. With a stronger field and a longer test this week, Barnett does not believe Campbell has a repeatable path to contention and advised fading him in outright and placement markets.

David Barnett doubled-down on Ben Griffin, calling the +320 top-10 price at the Travelers "insane." Barnett reminded listeners that Griffin has finished inside the top 10 in four straight starts—two majors, one Signature event, and his Colonial win—showing the hot streak is no fluke. Barnett believes the recent run erased any intimidation factor; Griffin is clearly comfortable mixing it up with elite fields. River Highlands rewards confidence and aggressive pin-hunting, two traits Barnett sees oozing from Griffin right now. Because the field is only 70 players with no cut, Barnett said a repeat top-10 requires merely “holding serve” with the current all-around form. He is treating the +320 as a core position in betting cards and a high-floor anchor in DFS cash builds.

Barnett’s “lock” top-10 is Collin Morikawa at +140. The two-time major winner gained over seven strokes on approach at Oakmont and enters Travelers having finished T4, T9, and T2 in his last three non-majors. River Highlands sets up as a wedge-fest, and Morikawa leads the field in proximity from 125-150 yards over the past 24 rounds. With no cut to worry about, Barnett calls a plus-money top-10 on one of the best iron players in the world “as safe as it gets.”

Barnett thinks Rickie Fowler is worth a nibble at 90-1. Fowler skipped Oakmont, meaning he arrives fresher than most and coming off consecutive solid showings at Colonial and Memorial. The former top-10 mainstay is finally capitalizing on limited starts and ranks top-25 in both fairways hit and birdie average over his last 12 rounds. Barnett plans to pair a small outright with DFS shares, betting on a rested Fowler to take advantage of a course that rewards momentum putters.

Barnett is tossing a speculative chip on Max Greyserman at 5-1 for a top-10. The rookie has rediscovered the ball-striking that won him a Korn Ferry finals card and quietly gained over six strokes tee-to-green in his last two starts. With a smaller field and softer setup, Barnett thinks Greyserman can ride the hot irons into Sunday contention without even needing a spike putting week.