David Fernandez relayed Dimers.com’s 10,000-run model showing Buffalo with a 69% win probability on Thursday Night Football. Although the simulation has Houston covering +5.5 in 54% of runs, Fernandez declared the best bet is the Bills moneyline at ‑250. The model’s projected final score is Bills 24-19 Texans. Key angles feeding the projection include Buffalo’s offensive momentum after dismantling Tampa Bay, Houston’s uncertainty at quarterback with C.J. Stroud unlikely to play, and the Texans’ 55% run rate with Davis Mills that limits their scoring ceiling. The recommendation is to forego the spread and lay the juice on the straight-up Bills victory.

David Fernandez noted that James Conner's season-ending foot surgery thrusts Trey Benson into the featured role for Thursday's game. Benson has already posted 125 rushing yards on 21 carries this season and is expected to 'carry a heavy load' with only a light rotation behind him. The matchup, however, is far from ideal: Seattle's defense has been 'particularly stingy' through three games and is adept at bottling up the run, forcing opponents to rely on short passes and creative looks. Fernandez cautioned fantasy managers that while Benson's projected volume keeps him in play, they should temper efficiency expectations in both season-long lineups and DFS contests given the difficult matchup.