Derek Brown warned that Jared Goff’s 2024 QB7 finish hinged on a 6.9% passing touchdown rate—third-best in the league and well above his previous Lions high of 5.0%. Goff offers almost no rushing production, so any regression in that rate would knock him out of the QB1 tier. Brown conceded the real-life efficiency (2nd in yards per attempt, 12th in CPOE, 4th in highly accurate-throw rate per Fantasy Points Data) but still slots Goff as a top-15 fantasy arm rather than a reliable starter. He advises treating Goff as a matchup streamer and pivoting to higher-upside options late in drafts.

Derek Brown is drafting J.J. McCarthy everywhere. Minnesota ranked 8th in neutral pass rate and 3rd in pass rate over expectation last year, and Kevin O’Connell quarterbacks keep finishing as QB1s (Sam Darnold was QB9 in points per game in 2024). Brown pointed out that the Vikings added offensive-line help and still boast an elite skill group, giving the first-year starter time and weapons to thrive. Collegiately, McCarthy finished top-12 among FBS signal callers in PFF passing grade, adjusted completion rate, YPA, downfield accuracy and performance under pressure. Brown expects those traits to translate and keep the Vikings’ streak of fantasy-elite passers alive, making McCarthy a late-round league-winner.

Derek Brown called Jaylin Noel a steal after Houston scooped him in Round 3. Despite a crowded depth chart featuring Nico Collins, Christian Kirk, and college teammate Jayden Higgins, Brown expects injuries or rotation to open snaps by midseason. Noel finished 2024 top-30 in receiving grade and yards per route run and ranked 2nd in deep receiving yards among all FBS wideouts (PFF). With slot/outside versatility and a proverbial chip on his shoulder, Brown labeled Noel an "awesome" late-round dynasty dart who could pay off quickly if Collins or Kirk miss time.

Derek Brown projected Kaleb Johnson to inherit the bulk of Arthur Smith’s run-heavy offense after Pittsburgh cut ties with Najee Harris. The Steelers ranked 4th in rushing attempts last year while Harris soaked up 299 touches (10th-most). Even a tempered 250-touch outlook for Johnson would have finished 21st league-wide. Brown highlighted Johnson’s explosive profile—5th in breakaway percentage, 8th in yards after contact per carry, 14th in elusive rating (PFF)—and predicted Jaylen Warren would remain in his change-of-pace role. Johnson opens 2025 as a rock-solid RB2/3 with a realistic chance to finish as an RB1 down the stretch if he distances himself from Warren better than Harris ever did.

Derek Brown said he will not draft Tyreek Hill anywhere near a top-20 receiver slot in 2025. During Weeks 8-16 of 2024 with Tua Tagovailoa, Hill managed only WR24 fantasy points per game while ranking 39th in yards per route run and 34th in target share. Among 112 qualified wideouts he fell to 28th in separation and 48th in route-win rate (Fantasy Points Data). Brown added that off-field distractions, trade demands and the possibility Jaylen Waddle leapfrogs Hill in the Dolphins’ pecking order create a narrow path to upside. If Miami moves on or Hill loses another efficiency step, Brown believes drafters will be holding a rapidly depreciating asset.

Derek Brown underscored that Harvey ranked top-20 in both breakaway percentage and elusive rating in each of the past two FBS seasons. Payton has finished fifth and first in RB target share the last two years. Brown says that combination could catapult Harvey into top-shelf RB1 territory.

Derek Brown reminded readers Walker was RB12 in points per game despite injuries. Among 45 RBs he ranked third in first-downs per route, sixth in targets per route, sixth in receiving yards per game, first in missed tackles forced per attempt, and tenth in yards after contact. With health, Brown says Walker can finally deliver the elusive top-five season.

Derek Brown called Hunter Henry a "wonderful" late-round tight-end target. In Drake Maye’s full starts Henry owned a 19.2% target share, 49.9 receiving yards per game, 1.70 yards per route run, a 22.7% first-read share and 0.098 first downs per route—metrics that would have ranked 7th, 6th, 14th, 5th and 8th among all qualifying TEs last season. That stretch produced 11.3 PPR points per game, TE8 pace. Although Stefon Diggs and Kyle Williams join the passing tree, Brown still expects Henry to emerge as Maye’s number-two option and flirt with TE1 output for managers who punt the position.

Derek Brown said Bhayshul Tuten is the type of upside swing to chase at the end of drafts. Brown noted Travis Etienne "looked like a shell of his former self" in 2024 and expects Tank Bigsby to be Tuten’s primary competition for touches. Tuten’s final collegiate season pops on the advanced-metrics page: 10th in yards after contact per attempt, 10th in breakaway percentage and 8th in PFF elusive rating. Brown compared the situation to last year’s Bucky Irving league-winning rise and believes even a committee role in Liam Coen’s offense could turn Tuten into a fantasy difference-maker.

Derek Brown urged caution on Kyren Williams after last season’s RB10 finish. Williams led all backs in snap share, ranked 2nd in opportunity share and 1st in red-zone touches, piling up 350 touches and 1,481 yards, but he was one of the league’s least efficient runners: 44th of 46 in explosive run rate, 37th in missed-tackle rate, and 40th in yards after contact per attempt (Fantasy Points Data). Brown noted the Rams added Blake Corum and Jarquez Hunter, either of whom could siphon work. If Williams’ stranglehold on snaps slips even slightly, his inefficiency leaves him priced closer to his ceiling than his floor in the top-15 RB range.

Brown acknowledged Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion risk but emphasized the fantasy floor created by Mike McDaniel’s lightning-fast attack. Tagovailoa sported the league’s lowest aDOT (5.9) and second-quickest time to throw yet still finished QB13 in points per game while ranking 18th in YPA, 8th in passer rating, 10th in CPOE, and 1st in highly-accurate throw rate. Brown projects another stable QB2 season and said a modest spike in TD rate could nudge Tagovailoa into low-end QB1 territory.

Brown noted Geno Smith was already QB15 per game while Seattle ranked 4th in pass attempts, and he quietly finished 13th in YPA, 4th in CPOE and 10th in highly-accurate throws. His collapse under pressure (35th passer rating, 4th highest turnover-worthy rate) was exacerbated by the Seahawks’ 19th-graded pass blocking. The Raiders were 14th, so Brown expects fewer collapses in the pocket and plenty of volume spikes, making Smith a reliable high-end QB2 with matchup-dependent ceiling weeks for streamers.

Derek Brown highlighted Bryce Young’s Weeks 12-18 breakout where he was the QB8 (25.4 rush yards per game, 12th) while ranking 8th in CPOE, 12th in highly-accurate throws, 2nd in hero-throw rate and posting the league’s 5th-highest deep-ball rate. Brown sees a "sneaky" QB2 with real upside if Young sustains that aggression and quickly meshes with first-round wideout Tetairoa McMillan.

Brown believes C.J. Stroud’s plunge from QB7 to QB28 was largely situational: a ravaged O-line and injuries to Nico Collins, Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs. Stroud’s own tendencies (5th-slowest time to throw, 15th highest pressure-to-sack rate) compounded matters. Houston answered by overhauling the front five and stocking weapons Christian Kirk, rookies Jayden Higgins and Jayllin Noel, Nick Chubb and Justin Watson. Brown argues the environment "can’t be worse" and positions Stroud as an easy bet to climb back into the top-12 fantasy conversation.

For managers punting QB, Brown suggested Matthew Stafford based on a mid-2024 stretch where Stafford, with Puka Nacua healthy, ranked QB11 per game while sitting 10th in YPA, 6th in passer rating and 11th in both highly-accurate throw rate and fantasy points per drop-back. The Rams swapped out Cooper Kupp for Davante Adams, get Tyler Higbee back, and added athletic rookie TE Terrance Ferguson. Brown thinks the refreshed arsenal lets Stafford "turn back the clock" for another QB1-caliber season despite his late-round price.

Brown called Drake Maye a strong QB2 who could leap into the QB1 ranks thanks to a blend of legs and upgraded help. In nine starts topping 90% snaps last season Maye averaged 18.7 fantasy points (QB11 pace) and 36.8 rushing yards (would have ranked 5th). Even behind a terrible line he still finished 17th in CPOE and 11th in highly-accurate throw rate. New England responded by bringing in Stefon Diggs, Mack Hollins, rookie Kyle Williams, multiple linemen, and returning OC Josh McDaniels. Brown believes those additions plus Maye’s rushing give him a clear path to out-kick his ADP.

Brown reminded readers that a camp foot issue and Week-3 high-ankle sprain torpedoed Justin Herbert’s first six games (QB27 ppg, 163 yards, 6.5 YPA) but once healthy he delivered QB11 output from Weeks 7-18. Over that span he averaged 254.6 passing yards (7th), 8.1 YPA (6th), ranked 4th in CPOE and 2nd in hero-throw rate, while adding 23.3 rush yards per game. With the Chargers importing additional receivers this offseason, Brown thinks Herbert’s median outcome is rock-solid QB2 and his ceiling a return to low-end QB1 status.

Derek Brown labeled Dak Prescott an "amazing" late-round value, arguing his 3.8% 2024 TD rate (first sub-5.8% mark since 2020) will bounce back toward career norms inside a pass-centric scheme. Weeks 1-8 last year the Cowboys sat 8th in neutral pass rate and 10th in PROE, and Jerry Jones added George Pickens to flank CeeDee Lamb alongside Jake Ferguson and Jalen Tolbert. Brown reminded drafters that just two seasons ago Prescott ranked QB4 in fantasy points per game while placing 7th in YPA, 8th in CPOE, and 6th in highly accurate-throw rate. He expects a return to QB1 territory at a steep ADP discount.

Derek Brown advised drafting J.J. McCarthy everywhere because Kevin O'Connell’s pass-happy attack (8th in neutral pass rate, 3rd in PROE last year) routinely pumps out QB1 seasons. Sam Darnold finished QB9 per game in the same system, and Brown believes the more talented McCarthy keeps the streak alive. In his final college season McCarthy ranked top-12 nationally in PFF passing grade, adjusted completion rate, yards per attempt, deep-ball accuracy, and efficiency against pressure. Minnesota upgraded the offensive line and is still stacked with targets, setting up what Brown calls a "wheels-up" landing spot for fantasy.

Derek Brown said Brock Purdy remains a slam-dunk late-round target because his efficiency and supporting cast scream repeat QB1 finish. Over the past two seasons Purdy has landed at QB10 and QB6 in fantasy points per game, and in 2024 he quietly added ground work, ranking 11th among quarterbacks in rushing yards and seventh in rushing TDs. He also finished third in yards per attempt, ninth in completion percentage over expectation, and tenth in fantasy points per drop-back. Even if Brandon Aiyuk opens slowly, Purdy still throws to Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, rookie Ricky Pearsall, and Jauan Jennings, and Brown noted San Francisco could lean even more on the pass if a slightly weaker defense forces shootouts.

Derek Brown urged bettors to grab the Rams at +300 to select an offensive lineman with their opening pick (26th overall on DraftKings). Brown pointed out that Los Angeles has suffered multi‑year injury carnage up front and right tackle Rob Havenstein, their lone pillar, turns 32 and hits free agency after the season. While the depth chart appears acceptable on paper—Bo Limmer is slated to start at center and Alaric Jackson was re‑signed—Brown stressed Sean McVay has learned the hard way that protecting Matthew Stafford is non‑negotiable. The 2025 tackle class aligns perfectly with L.A.’s slot: Josh Simmons could slide to 26, and tweeners like Donovan Jackson or Josh Conerly offer Day‑1 guard snaps with long‑term tackle upside. With the defensive front fortified last year (Fiske, Verse) and corner the only other glaring need, Brown pegs the true odds near +150, making the 3‑to‑1 ticket an obvious value play.

Derek Brown recommended betting the Eagles to open their draft with a cornerback at +425. Brown highlighted the depth chart attrition—Darius Slay’s departure leaves Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean as the only reliable outside options, with Perry Nickerson, Adoree Jackson and Kelee Ringo penciled in behind them. He dismissed last year’s double‑dip at CB as irrelevant because the room remains paper‑thin. Sitting late in Round 1, Howie Roseman can either stay put or slide back a few spots and still snatch a falling prospect like Will Johnson if his middling testing pushes him out of the top 20. Given the glaring need, draft‑board alignment and Roseman’s penchant for exploiting value in premium positions, Brown pegged fair odds around +250, making the current price a strong buy.

Brown also urged a sprinkle on the Texans at +600 to take a defensive lineman first. He pointed out that both projected starters inside—Sheldon Rankins and Tim Settle—are on one‑year deals, and Nick Caserio has repeatedly said he wants to build sustainably in the trenches. The mid‑20s portion of Round 1 historically serves as a sweet spot for three‑techs and edge/big‑end hybrids, so the positional board should align with Houston’s slot. With the betting market laser‑focused on offensive line, Brown believes the defensive‑line path is being overlooked despite multiple viable targets such as Walter Nolen or Deone Walker likely being available. He framed it as a "spray the board" approach: if either WR (+400) or DL (+600) hits, bettors clear solid profit while fading the consensus O‑line narrative.

Derek Brown recommended betting the Texans at +400 to open their draft with a wide receiver, arguing the public is still stuck on offensive‑line narratives that no longer apply. Houston has patched the line with volume—signing Cam Robinson, Ed Ingram, Trent Brown and Laken Tomlinson while retaining Titus Howard and 2024 second‑rounder Blake Fisher—so the front office could legitimately feel comfortable up front. Meanwhile the receiver room is a minefield: Christian Kirk is an aging rental, Tank Dell’s return from a catastrophic leg injury is uncertain, and the remaining depth (Justin Watson, John Metchie, Braxton Berrios) profiles as replacement‑level. Brown connected obvious dots to Emeka Egbuka or another perimeter threat at pick 26 and called the +400 number "far too long" given the roster needs and C.J. Stroud’s ascendant trajectory.

Derek Brown highlighted Washington at 10‑to‑1 to open its draft with a running back, labeling it a "DBro special" worth a sprinkle. He noted Washington’s three glaring roster holes—running back, cornerback, and safety—and argued new GM Adam Peters could address the latter two positions later in a deep class, leaving pick 29 for a premium ball‑carrier. Brown sees the bet hinging on TreVeyon Henderson’s rising buzz; if the Buckeye star sneaks into Round 1, Amarian Hampton or Jonathan Brooks would still leave the Commanders several viable paths to pull the trigger. With coaches Dan Quinn and Kliff Kingsbury both favoring run‑heavy schemes, Brown believes the 10‑1 price understates the probability Washington makes Henderson or Hampton its first selection.

Derek Brown urged bettors to grab Buffalo at +275 to select a cornerback with its first 2025 pick, calling the number "absolutely wrong" and closer to what should be an even‑money proposition. Brown pointed out that the Bills have effectively moved on from 2022 first‑round bust Kaiir Elam, are relying on a one‑year prove‑it deal for a diminished Tre'Davious White, and otherwise field only depth pieces such as Dane Jackson and Cam Lewis opposite Christian Benford. Because the CB class is expected to start coming off the board in the 20s, Buffalo’s slot at the back of Round 1 aligns perfectly with the positional run. He dismissed safety or offensive line as true threats to cornerback in this spot and believes the price will shorten once mainstream mock drafters catch up.

Derek Brown said bettors should jump on the plus‑money price for Matthew Golden landing in Dallas with the Cowboys’ first selection. Brown noted Golden has appeared in every mock draft he has written because the Texas burner checks every schematic box Mike McCarthy looks for opposite CeeDee Lamb: true field‑stretching speed, outside/inside versatility, and a vertical route tree identical to what the club tried (and failed) to unlock with Brandin Cooks. Brown views Golden as a much closer stylistic match to the Cooks archetype than favorite Tetairoa McMillan, which is why he believes the market is mis‑pricing Dallas’ intentions. With the Cowboys openly prioritizing a wideout and Golden’s skill set matching their history, Brown thinks any plus number here is a gift.