Derek Carty

Derek Carty recommends betting the over on Joe Ryan's 5.5 strikeout total (-160 odds) as one of the day's high-value pitcher prop bets. The projection assigns Ryan a 69% chance of exceeding this number, providing +$18.18 in expected value. Ryan benefits significantly from a dominating platoon advantage against a Houston Astros lineup projected to feature eight right-handed hitters, positioning him nicely to surpass this strikeout projection.

Derek Carty identifies Charlie Morton (over 5.5 Ks, -120) as an appealing strikeout prop bet due to Boston's susceptibility to high-K performances. Morton is projected with a 60% likelihood to eclipse 5.5 strikeouts, yielding a $12.88 expected value. The presence of strikeout-heavy hitters Triston Casas, Trevor Story, and Connor Wong in Boston's lineup significantly boosts Morton's strikeout potential.

Projected by Derek Carty's THE BAT X, Triston Casas presents an enticing betting opportunity with an over 0.5 HR at (+800) odds, granting a +$48.59 expected value. Strong wind blowing out toward center field at 10.6 mph in the Red Sox vs Orioles matchup creates an advantageous home run environment. Casas's odds offer great profitability due to this wind-aided hitting condition.

Derek Carty advises betting under 4.5 strikeouts (-110) for Merrill Kelly given his weak fastball velocity (91.9 mph, ranking in the 24th percentile among starters) and challenging opponent in the Yankees. Kelly's limited swing-and-miss capability against a potent New York Yankees offense caps his strikeout upside, making the under bet a strategically profitable move (+$7.96 EV, with 56% probability to hit).

Using THE BAT X projections, Derek Carty recommended betting Sonny Gray to go over 5.5 strikeouts (-140 odds) against the Minnesota Twins. This recommendation hinges on the Twins lineup, projected by the model to carry the fourth-highest strikeout tendency (24.5% underlying K rate) on the day. The bet is given a robust 64% chance of hitting, providing substantial expected value of $14.08.

Derek Carty's THE BAT X identifies San Francisco Giants hitter Wilmer Flores as a good home run betting opportunity. Flores demonstrates an extreme pull-hitter profile, pulling 37.8% of his flyballs (top 5 percentile in league), and is playing in Cincinnati with the league's seventh-shallowest fences in left field. The conditions yield a 12% projected chance of a home run, making betting over 0.5 HR (+750 odds) carry an expected value of $1.66.

Derek Carty's THE BAT X model identified value in betting Mookie Betts to hit over 0.5 home runs due to favorable wind conditions. Winds blowing out to right field at 9.2 mph provide the day's third-best hitting conditions, translating to a 14% chance of Betts hitting a homer with a high expected value of $4.63.

Derek Carty identified value in betting Sandy Alcantara over 5.5 strikeouts against the Pittsburgh Pirates at +120 odds. With Alcantara getting favorable handedness matchups against six opposing hitters, the projected likelihood of him exceeding the strikeout total is set at 51%, translating to significant expected value ($11.43 EV).

Derek Carty from THE BAT X strongly recommended betting Blake Snell over 6.5 strikeouts at -160 odds against Detroit, citing Snell's elite strikeout skills that rank him as the fifth-best starting pitcher this year for strikeout talent according to the projections. This prop bet has a high 65% likelihood of hitting, and offers a high expected value of over $10.17.

According to THE BAT X projections from Derek Carty, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. holds strong home run potential, projected to have a 19% chance of hitting a homer against the Orioles. Betting the over on his 0.5 HR line (+450 odds) carries positive expected value of $2.96, driven strongly by Guerrero's home-field advantage enhancing his hitting metrics.