Doug Burrell called Buffalo +1.5 the strongest play on the entire Week 1 board after the line slipped from +2 to +1 on immediate sharp action. His model assigns the Bills a 60.3% cover probability, the highest of any team. He highlighted schematic edges: a Bills front that historically keeps mobile quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson in the pocket, plus an offense led by Josh Allen that can dictate tempo without needing a blowout. Despite Baltimore drawing 90% of the moneyline handle (46% of tickets), the spread moved toward Buffalo, a signal Burrell views as a classic sharp v. public split. That alignment between model, matchup and market makes Bills +1.5 his top conviction bet.

Doug Burrell recommended Chicago +1.5 after the spread’s wild ride from +1.5 to ‑1.5 and back, noting that volatility through zero usually signals evenly matched teams—historically a sweet spot for the underdog. He cited a 23-6 ATS record for Week 1 divisional home dogs since 2009 and a 56.3% cover probability from his model. Injury context: Bears CB Terell Smith is done for the year and Jaylon Johnson is questionable, but Minnesota counters with Justin Jefferson shouldering the load alone because Jordan Addison is suspended the first three games and Rondale Moore is already out for the season. Soldier Field’s messy early-season conditions further compress scoring, magnifying every point. Betting splits show Chicago getting 53% of spread tickets despite only 44% of the handle, underscoring a live home dog Burrell wants to back.

Doug Burrell said the Saints are a buy-low after Arizona steamed from ‑4.5 to ‑6.5, calling the two-point jump an overcorrection that unlocks value on New Orleans at +6.5. His betting model gives the Saints a 58.1% chance to cover. He acknowledged right-tackle Trevor Penning’s lingering turf-toe and CB Alontae Taylor’s absence but argued those concerns are offset by the Cardinals losing rookie DL Walter Nolen. Burrell noted New Orleans’ 9-4 all-time record at home against Arizona and emphasized the contrarian splits: 89% of moneyline tickets (95% handle) on Arizona, yet only 47% of spread tickets, meaning sharper money is grabbing the points. All factors led him to label Saints +6.5 his first best bet of Week 1.