Doug Ferguson noted Dustin Johnson heads back to the site of his 2016 triumph, yet his 125-1 price reflects a steep decline: zero wins in 16 months and five missed cuts in his last seven majors. Although Johnson insists his game is close, recent results say otherwise. Ferguson suggested that sentiment alone is not enough to justify a flyer even at triple-digit odds, advising bettors to look elsewhere for long-shot value.

Despite owning back-to-back U.S. Open victories (2017, 2018), Brooks Koepka sits at 40-1. Doug Ferguson cautioned bettors that Koepka has not posted a top-10 in any major since winning the 2023 PGA Championship and has already missed the cut at both majors in 2025. The five-time major winner usually peaks for the big weeks, but Ferguson implied his current ball-striking metrics and recent MCs outweigh the historical narrative, making Koepka a pass in outright and matchup markets until he flashes real form.

Doug Ferguson wrote that Bryson DeChambeau (8-1) has turned into the majors’ must-watch showman, landing four top-5s in his last five majors and adding a second U.S. Open crown this year at Pinehurst. DeChambeau tied for 15th at Oakmont in 2016 during his rookie season, and Ferguson argued his recent power-control balance makes him a top-finish staple for bettors. Those uncomfortable paying a short outright number can target Bryson’s top-5 market, banking on his current form and proven U.S. Open success.

Doug Ferguson pointed out that Jon Rahm, available at 11-1, pushed Scheffler deep into Sunday at the recent PGA Championship—his first serious major run since joining LIV. Rahm won the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines and was low amateur the last time Oakmont hosted in 2016, giving him valuable course memories. While the Spaniard is still searching for his first LIV win this season, Ferguson believes Rahm’s proven U.S. Open temperament and Oakmont experience justify outright and top-5 wagers.

Doug Ferguson highlighted that Xander Schauffele’s 16-1 price carries sneaky upside because the Californian has never finished worse than T-14 in eight U.S. Open starts, with five top-10s including a T-3 at Pebble. After a two-month layoff for a rib injury, Schauffele is rounding back into form and owns a 2024 major victory (PGA) plus a British Open title, signaling he now converts chances. For bettors looking beyond Scheffler, Ferguson framed Schauffele as the safest each-way option given his elite U.S. Open track record and improving health.

Doug Ferguson said Scottie Scheffler is the clear betting focal point at 3-1 on BetMGM, noting the World No. 1 has captured three of his last four worldwide starts by a combined 17 strokes. Scheffler already owns two green jackets and last month’s PGA Championship and would complete the third leg of a potential Grand Slam with a win at Oakmont. Ferguson reminded readers that Scheffler finished runner-up at the 2022 U.S. Open and has never missed a cut in seven appearances, making him a justifiable anchor for outright tickets or one-and-done pools.