Drew Dinsick noted that Cincinnati is 11‑8 against the run line this year and has covered in four of Andrew Abbott’s last five outings dating back to 2024 spring. Abbott owns a 1.80 ERA and limited the Pirates to one run over five frames in his lone 2025 start, giving the Reds a decent shot to keep Friday’s game within one. Baltimore’s Cade Povich has yet to complete five innings and owns a 1.71 WHIP, so Dinsick is comfortable grabbing the extra 1.5 runs with a visiting lineup that still features a red‑hot Elly De La Cruz (2‑for‑4 with a homer Thursday). He labeled Cincinnati +1.5 his preferred alternate side if bettors are unwilling to lay the Orioles’ chalk on the moneyline.