Drew Martin made his best bet the Yankees at –130 in L.A. He highlighted New York’s scorching form—35-20 overall, winners of five straight and 9-1 in their last ten—and a favorable scheduling spot: the club remained in Southern California after sweeping the Angels, whereas the Dodgers are playing their first home game after a week-long road trip. On the hill, Max Fried is 7-0 with a 1.29 ERA and a 67-16 K/BB through 11 starts, never allowing more than two earned runs in any outing. Dodgers right-hander Tony Gonsolin, still ramping up after an injury-delayed season debut, has logged only four and five innings in his last two starts while posting a troubling 7-to-8 K/BB and surrendering four runs in each. With the Yankees owning MLB’s No. 1 offense against right-handed pitching, Martin expects Gonsolin to struggle and advised locking in New York before the line drifts beyond –140.

Drew Martin backed the Cardinals to beat the Rangers, citing both form and pitching edge. St. Louis sits 32-24 with a +45 run differential and has been profitable all season. Left-hander Matthew Liberatore owns a sub-2.00 ERA since early April and has delivered back-to-back 6- and 7-inning outings while allowing exactly one earned run in each. His 40-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio underscores sharp command. Texas is expected to counter with former No. 2 overall pick Jack Leiter, who sports a 4.20 ERA and a worrisome 30-to-21 K/BB in 41 innings; he issued five walks in his most recent start against the lowly White Sox. Even if Texas pivots to a different starter, Martin trusts Liberatore’s form and the Redbirds’ overall edge and will grab St. Louis at any plus or small-minus price that appears.

Drew Martin recommended taking the Angels-Guardians under 8 runs. He pointed out that Los Angeles has dropped five straight while managing only three total runs over its last four contests. Cleveland’s bats are not much better, ranking bottom-10 in season-long production and again in the past week, especially versus right-handed pitching. On the mound, 99-mph fire-baller Jose Soriano brings a 3.70 ERA/FIP for the Angels, and Luis Ortiz already limited L.A. to three earned over six frames in their first meeting. With both lineups in prolonged slumps and Ortiz showing a serviceable track record against this opponent, Martin projected a 3-2 or 4-2 type finish and played the under before it possibly dips to 7.5.

Calling it his top play of the slate, Drew Martin grabbed Washington at even money behind left-hander MacKenzie Gore. Gore is fresh off six scoreless innings (2 H, 9 K) versus San Francisco and last year limited Seattle to one run over seven frames with eight strikeouts. The matchup is cushioned by Seattle’s documented struggles against lefties. On the flip side, rookie Emerson Hancock owns a brutal home profile: 24 hits and a 12-plus ERA in just 11 T-Mobile Park innings. Although the Nats sit 24-30 overall, Martin emphasized their improved form over the last 10 days and believes Gore’s pedigree (former No. 3 overall pick) gives Washington the mound edge. He recommended risking 100 to win 100 on the Nationals.

Martin is riding Tampa Bay at +104 with fire-balling Shane Baz on the bump. The Rays have won seven of eight and just blanked Houston 5-0 on Wednesday. Baz, a 25-year-old former first-rounder, throws 97–98 mph and allowed only one earned run in his last start. He also produced strong numbers in two starts versus Houston last season. Opposing him is Astros spot-starter Blair Gusto, a rookie with a mid-4 ERA/FIP and ugly home splits: nine runs and six walks across his last two Minute Maid outings. Given Tampa’s recent surge, Baz’s swing-and-miss arsenal, and the plus price, Martin advised risking 100 to win 104 on the Rays.

Drew Martin will only look to the Athletics, likely at plus money, in their series opener at Toronto. He highlighted Jacob Lopez’s dominant seven-inning, three-hit, one-run performance against the Phillies his last time out and noted that Lopez’s lone blemish came via a solo homer. The A’s offense has been scorching—top-five in MLB by wRC+ over the past week—while Toronto has dropped four of five and returns home after a road trip, a spot Martin dislikes. On the other side, Jose Berrios sports a 4.20 ERA, declining velocity, and four-or-fewer strikeouts in three straight starts. Those factors, coupled with reduced travel for Oakland (already halfway across the continent after playing in Houston), make the Athletics Martin’s preferred wager.

Martin labeled the second game of the Braves-Phillies double-header his favorite play, insisting Zack Wheeler is a clear ‘bet-on’ arm. Wheeler has fired three consecutive scoreless starts, blanking opponents across those outings, and now faces a Braves roster that continues to sputter on the road. Philadelphia’s lineup is red-hot, and the club owns a 10-1 run over its last 11 games. Although Chris Sale has pitched well for Atlanta, Martin stressed Wheeler’s elite form and the Phillies’ home momentum make Philadelphia the side to trust in Game 2.

Drew Martin’s best bet was Pirates first-five +100 behind Paul Skenes against Zac Gallen in Arizona. Martin argues bettors still give Gallen past-season respect despite a 5-plus ERA this year and back-to-back 10-earned-runs-in-10-innings outings versus the Cardinals and Rockies, with 21 hits allowed and four walks last time out. Skenes, the former No. 1 overall pick, has rattled off three straight 6-plus-inning gems with only one earned run in each and a sparkling 70/18 K/BB. The rookie owns a 1.40 ERA on the road, showing reverse splits that travel well. Pittsburgh’s offense has also come alive, ranking top-10 in wRC+ over the past week. By locking in only the first five frames, Martin avoids the Pirates’ shaky bullpen and counts on Skenes to outperform the slumping Gallen early. Play: Pirates 1H ML +100.

Drew Martin laid -150 on Milwaukee’s first-five line with Freddy Peralta facing Boston, noting the Brewers are 16-10 at home and Peralta has surrendered just one earned run in each of his last two starts. The 28-year-old Dominican right-hander owns a 60/23 K/BB and only 44 hits allowed in 60+ innings, with a slight velocity bump supporting his 2025 surge. Martin is simultaneously fading Brayan Bello, who has coughed up nine earned runs in his last eight innings and carries a shaky 27/20 K/BB across 35 frames. By shortening the wager to five innings, Martin avoids Milwaukee’s suspect bullpen and trusts Peralta to outduel a cold Bello before the lineups and pens decide things late. Play: Brewers 1H ML -150.

Drew Martin said he is actively fading Clayton Kershaw in Wednesday's matinee at Cleveland and grabbed the Guardians at +110 for the first-five moneyline. Martin argued the 36-year-old lefty simply is not the same pitcher: his fastball now sits 88–89 mph and he was rocked for five earned in his season debut before a rain-shortened two-inning second start. Martin believes markets still price Kershaw like the future Hall-of-Famer he was, not the version we see today. On the flip side, 25-year-old prospect Slade Cecconi owns a 3.00 ERA with a 14-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio through two starts, giving Cleveland a live arm early. Because the Dodgers still hold clear lineup and bullpen edges, Martin cut the wager to the first five innings to isolate the starting-pitching matchup. Play: Guardians 1H ML +110.

Drew Martin targeted the Mets on Sunday Night Baseball behind Kodai Senga’s elite numbers and a favourable matchup versus struggling rookie Landon Knack. Senga enters with a sub-1.50 ERA, only 38 hits allowed in 50 innings, and is coming off a six-inning, one-run, nine-strikeout masterpiece against these Dodgers. Knack, by contrast, has cratered to a 6-plus ERA and has been tattooed for nine earned and four homers across his last nine innings combined. With Senga showing the same wipe-out ghost fork that baffled Los Angeles earlier and expecting plus odds on the home side, Martin is backing the Mets moneyline in the primetime slot.

Drew Martin wants the Marlins as road dogs because Edward Cabrera’s stuff is trending up while Kyle Hendricks appears cooked. Cabrera has pushed his fastball back to 98-99 mph and posted three straight strong outings despite the surface-level 4.91 ERA. Hendricks, meanwhile, sports a 5-plus ERA and FIP, only 28 strikeouts against 16 walks in 47 innings, and is living at 86-87 mph. Martin called the 35-year-old Dartmouth product a ‘swan-song’ fade and expects Miami to be listed at a tempting plus price. Listing Cabrera and fading Hendricks’ declining skills makes the Fish the play.

Drew Martin recommended betting the under in Tampa, citing a pitching duel between Chris Bassitt and Ryan Pepiot plus two top-10 bullpens. Bassitt’s fastball velo, which dipped two outings ago, has popped back up and accompanied a 2.93 ERA and sparkling 61-to-11 K/BB ledger for the 36-year-old. Pepiot just held these same Jays to three earned over six frames with a 7-to-1 K/BB ratio and should benefit from facing them again in a cavernous minor-league-sized Tropicana alternate site. With both starters trending up and relief units graded inside Martin’s top 10, he projects a low-scoring game and is grabbing the under before first pitch.

Drew Martin said Tarik Skubal’s current form makes Detroit the clear side. Skubal owns a 2.89 ERA, an even better 2.10 FIP, and a dominant 79-to-8 K/BB mark through 59 innings. The Tigers, who enter the weekend with MLB’s best record and a +80 run differential, have also hammered right-handed pitching and carry a bullpen edge. Martin contrasted that with Cleveland starter Logan Allen’s 21 walks in 44 innings and a two-and-a-third, seven-earned-run implosion the last time he faced Detroit. Because the moneyline will likely exceed –150, Martin is comfortable laying a home run line, confident Skubal can replicate the seven-inning, one-run gem he spun against Cleveland earlier this month.

Drew Martin advised taking the Mets –110 in the Saturday nightcap because David Peterson has quietly been lights-out while Tony Gonsolin is still shaking off rust. Peterson’s sub-3.00 ERA was on full display last Sunday when he blanked the Yankees for six innings of one-run, three-hit ball on national TV. The Mets are 17-5 at Citi Field and thrive against opponents over .500. Gonsolin, returning from last year’s injury, walked five and struck out only three in his last start, a red flag going into a tough road environment. Martin noted that getting the Dodgers as a dog is rare but still laid the small price with New York, trusting Peterson and the Mets’ strong home profile.

Drew Martin likes Tampa Bay –115 in their minor-league-park home game, pointing to Shane Baz’s encouraging history against Toronto and the matchup edge versus Jose Berrios. Baz struck out six Jays over 4.2 innings last week and, in an earlier 2025 meeting, limited them to one earned over six. Berrios sports a 4.20 ERA and was torched for five earned by these same Rays in that recent series. Martin added that Tampa’s lineup is markedly better against right-handed pitching, and their bullpen grades out well, making the short price attractive in the extended home-stand he had circled preseason.

Drew Martin recommended laying the modest –120 with the Cubs in Cincinnati because the matchup favors Chicago on several fronts. Starter Colin Rea, a steady 34-year-old, owns a sub-2.50 ERA and a 3-0 record. The Cubs back him with the league’s No. 2 offense versus left-handed pitching by weighted runs created plus and an overall +83 run differential. Reds southpaw Andrew Abbott has strong surface numbers, yet Martin noted they haven’t translated into cashing tickets against him this season. Chicago’s potent lineup against lefties plus better road form led Martin to call the Cubs the side.

Drew Martin said the Royals are live dogs in Minnesota because Michael Wacha is simply dealing right now. The 33-year-old owns a sub-3.00 ERA, has won each of his last two decisions, and has allowed only three earned runs over his last 18 innings (one earned run per start in that span). Meanwhile, rookie Zebby Matthews makes just his second MLB start for the Twins after posting a 7.00 ERA last season and surrendering four earned in three innings with three walks in his 2025 debut against Milwaukee. Martin labeled it a classic “wrong team favored” spot and advised grabbing Kansas City at +110.

Drew Martin declared “the dog is barking” and took Arizona at +118 with Corbin Burnes listed. Burnes sports a 2.60 ERA and is coming off consecutive six- and seven-inning scoreless starts, the latter featuring 10 strikeouts. Earlier this month he blanked the Dodgers for seven frames. Los Angeles limps in on a four-game skid (before Tuesday’s result) and hands the ball to Dustin May, who has dropped three straight starts, including the Arizona meeting where the D-backs posted a 40 % hard-hit rate. Martin loves the top of the Diamondbacks’ order and sees a live underdog scenario at Chavez Ravine.

Drew Martin urged bettors to bypass the steep −230 money-line and grab Philadelphia −1.5 runs at −160 (or even −2.5 at even money for gamblers). Taijuan Walker owns a sparkling 2.43 ERA and sub-.670 opponent OPS across six career starts at Coors Field (37 innings), an outlier level of success for a visiting pitcher. Colorado is historically dreadful at 8-39 overall, 5-17 at home, and 4-31 versus winning teams. Rookie lefty Carson Palmquist debuts at Coors after giving up five runs without a strikeout in four frames against Arizona; Martin doubts he survives the Phillies’ stacked order. Philly also carries a bullpen edge. All arrows point to crooked numbers and a comfortable multi-run victory, so the run-line is the recommended play.

Drew Martin said it is time to keep betting on Chris Paddack and the Twins money-line, even at the juiced −139 to −145 price. Paddack has stacked back-to-back seven-plus-inning gems and owns a sub-2.50 ERA since April 1. Last season he spun eight innings of three-hit ball against this very Cleveland lineup, so there is relevant same-division history. On the other side, 25-year-old Gavin Williams has been shaky away from Progressive Field, surrendering 13 earned runs in 18 road innings. Martin added that Minnesota carries a sizable bullpen edge, further tilting late-game win expectancy toward the Twins.

Drew Martin laid the -1.5 on Detroit at +100, emphasizing a massive starting-pitching gap between Tarik Scoobal and Eric Fedde. Even after a merely average outing last time out, Scoobal owns a ridiculous 42-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his last four starts and fronts a first-place Tigers club sporting a +87 run differential. Fedde’s surface numbers look fine, but Martin pointed out pronounced reverse splits: hitters’ OPS is more than 100 points higher when he pitches at Busch Stadium. Offensively, St. Louis scored only three runs combined in its Saturday/Sunday games and now draws the hotter, more balanced Detroit lineup and the deeper bullpen. With every box — starter, bats, and relief — checked in Detroit’s favor, Martin prefers the run line to the pricey -165 moneyline.

Drew Martin laid the -150 with the Athletics in Sacramento, arguing that both the scheduling spot and the pitching matchup tilt toward Oakland. The Angels just finished an emotional three-game sweep of the Dodgers and could flatten out heading north, while the A’s are desperate to snap a five-game skid. On the mound, Liam Hendriks (1-5, 5+ ERA and FIP) has struggled in hitter-friendly parks, and Sutter Health Park has played lively. Oakland counters with 25-year-old former first-rounder Gunnar Hoglund, whom Martin likes to back early in his big-league career despite one rough outing at Dodger Stadium (three HRs allowed). He labeled Hoglund’s drop in opposing quality a "step down" and trusts the rookie more than Hendriks. Although both bullpens are shaky, Martin gives the slight edge to Oakland’s relief corps and believes the A’s still have the stronger everyday lineup in this matchup.

Drew Martin said he is betting Ryan Weathers’ strike-out prop to the OVER when the number posts for Tuesday’s rematch with Chicago. Martin noted that the 24-year-old left-hander’s fastball is sitting 97-98 mph— a noticeable velocity bump from last season — and that the added heat translated into five scoreless innings, only two hits allowed, and six strikeouts on 51-of-76 strikes in his first start of 2025, which also came against these same Cubs. Because both clubs are rolling the exact same starting pitchers back out, Martin expects very little lineup adjustment time for Chicago and called Weathers a clear "bet-on" arm right now. While he admitted the Marlins’ offense and bullpen keep him off the full game side, Martin wants exposure to Weathers’ improved stuff through the K prop market.

Drew Martin advised laying –127 with Minnesota, citing multiple edges. The Twins are 26-21 overall, a stout 15-6 at Target Field, and have ripped off a 13-1 tear over the last couple of weeks. Ober is 4-1 this season and, in three starts against Cleveland last year, threw 21 innings (7.0 per start) while permitting only three earned runs and winning all three decisions. Cleveland’s offense has cratered—bottom five in MLB over the past week, scoreless in a four-game skid after being swept by Cincinnati—and their bullpen grades bottom-10 by Martin’s numbers. Meanwhile Minnesota’s lineup ranks top-five right now and its relief corps is also top-five. Although Logan Allen spun a gem against Milwaukee last time out, his 4.00 FIP suggests regression. With both lineup form and bullpen quality in the Twins’ corner along with Ober’s past dominance of the division rival, Martin expects Minnesota to take the opener comfortably.

Martin recommended a first-five-innings wager on the underdog Marlins with Edward Cabrera listed. He noted the unusual "back-to-back" dynamic: Cubs starter Ben Brown just faced Miami in Wrigley last week, giving the Marlins hitters an edge in familiarity, while Cabrera did not face Chicago in that series. Cabrera’s velocity has ticked up after a delayed start due to injury, and his last two outings have been his sharpest—allowing two earned runs and one earned run respectively. Brown, a former 33rd-round pick, carries a 4.75 ERA and could struggle when the same lineup sees him twice in quick succession. Although Miami is only 18-27 and the bullpen mismatch favors Chicago, Martin wants to isolate the starting-pitcher edge and grab a juicy plus-price in the first five innings before the Marlins’ shaky relief corps appears.

Drew Martin said to lay the short –120 with Cincinnati because every key indicator tilts their way. Pittsburgh is a miserable 15-32, has been swept three straight, and scored only three total runs in its last two games. Offensively the Pirates rank near the bottom of every major metric. Mitch Keller is 1-5, has dropped five straight decisions, and in his most recent appearance against the Reds (late last season) lasted only three innings while issuing five walks and surrendering eight earned runs. By contrast, the Reds sit at .500 but have caught fire, going 8-2 over their last 10 and riding a four-game winning streak. Martin highlighted Nick Lodolo’s 3.40 ERA and pristine 42-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio as further evidence that Cincinnati is undervalued. He concluded the twenty-cent road price is too cheap given the current form of both teams and pitchers.

Drew Martin labeled Padres –135 his best bet behind Michael King’s consistency. King has delivered six straight starts of two earned runs or fewer, allowing just 34 hits in 50 innings with a 56:16 K:BB. He also held Seattle to one earned run in each of two 2024 outings. Brian Wu sports a shiny 2.80 ERA overall but shows stark home/road splits: only two earned runs allowed at T-Mobile Park versus 14 on the road, along with more than double the hits surrendered away from Seattle. Offensively, San Diego ranks sixth in wRC+ over the past week, while the Mariners sit 26th. The Friars also possess the stronger bullpen. With pitching, lineup, and relief advantages all aligning at a modest price, Martin advised laying –135 on the Padres.

Drew Martin recommended attacking the Dodgers’ team-total over rather than laying the steep –250 moneyline. Tony Gonsolin has returned from injury with a 2-0 record, sub-3.00 ERA/FIP, and a 21:4 K:BB in 16 frames, putting the Dodgers in position to score early. Yusei Kikuchi, 0-4 with reduced velocity, was tagged for nine hits and four earned runs in his lone 2024 appearance versus L.A. The Dodgers rank second in MLB against left-handed pitching, while the Angels offense sits bottom-five overall and versus righties. Conditions at Chavez Ravine – 70 degrees with a 10-mph wind blowing out to center – further boost run potential, and the Halos bullpen grades as the worst in baseball over the past month. Martin expects Los Angeles to plate runs quickly and clear their posted total.

Drew Martin backed the Nationals at +140 in the Beltway finale, laying out several edges. Michael Soroka, though limited to roughly five-inning stints, owns a sub-4.00 FIP across 14 innings and faces an Orioles offense ranking bottom-10 both season-long and over the past week by wRC+. Baltimore is just 15-28 overall, 8-13 at Camden Yards and dragging a ‑75 run differential. Zach Eflin’s fastball has lost a tick, and the O’s bullpen has been, in Martin’s words, "awful." Conversely, Washington has taken the first two games, scoring 14 runs and bringing the hotter lineup. Given the superior current form and bullpen edge, Martin felt the dog price was too large and labeled Nationals +140 his preferred way to open Sunday’s card.

Although not labeling it a best bet, Martin likes Kansas City at -150 with Cole Ragans toeing the slab. Ragans’ 4.20 ERA hides a sparkling 2.25 FIP and a 65-to-13 K/BB ratio that suggest he’s been unlucky. KC is 16-7 at Kauffman and owns one of baseball’s better bullpens, giving them a late-inning edge. Andre Pallante’s 28 K to 16 BB in 43 innings indicates he isn’t missing enough bats, something Martin has faded before. With temperatures over 80°F and a 15-mph breeze out to the outfield, he stayed off the total but expects the Royals staff to outshine St. Louis and rewarded KC moneyline backers.

Martin grabbed Washington at a near even -105 price because he sees a massive starting-pitching gap. MacKenzie Gore, the former No. 3 overall pick, has punched out 75 batters in 52 innings and carries solid surface numbers. Cade Povich, meanwhile, had his previous turn skipped, sports an ERA and FIP north of 5.00, and is fighting control (8 walks) and homer issues (5 HR) in his last 7 Camden Yards innings. Even with both lineups ranking bottom-10 overall, the Nats have been markedly better versus lefties, giving Gore superior offensive support. Rain is possible, so Martin advises listing Gore, but if he goes he wants the Nationals in a straight pick’em.

Drew Martin backed the Yankees at roughly -140 in the Subway Series opener. He noted that New York owns the No. 1 weighted-runs-created-plus versus right-handed pitching both season-long and over the past week, and he trusts a bullpen he ranks sixth in MLB. Carlos Rodon has fanned 67 hitters while allowing only 33 hits in 54 IP and just blanked San Diego for 6.2 scoreless frames in his last Yankee Stadium appearance. On the other side, Tylor Megill has surrendered 8 ER across his last 9 innings and hands the ball to a Mets bullpen Martin grades 20th overall. In a hitters park, Martin expects Rodon to deliver a quality start and the Bronx pen to close the door, making the Yanks a play up to -150.

Martin is backing Oakland at +165 in the nightcap. The Athletics own the third-hottest offense by weighted runs created plus, and starter Luis Beto (touching 96-97 mph) tossed six innings of two-run ball against LA last season. Meanwhile Dustin ("Dusty") May has unraveled: 16 earned runs, 27 hits, and nine walks over his last 20 innings as injuries thin the Dodgers’ rotation. With Los Angeles forced to over-pay for a shaky starter, Martin sees value in the surging Oakland lineup keeping the game tight and potentially stealing it outright at a sizable underdog price.

Despite Jacob deGrom’s name value, Martin grabbed Houston at +109 with Hunter Brown on the mound. Brown has won five straight starts, punching out at least nine in each of the last four and holding Texas to three hits over six innings at Globe Life Field last season. The Astros bullpen grades as the second-best in baseball in his model, so the club maintains a quality arm pipeline from starter to closer. Martin concedes deGrom’s excellence but believes the line over-prices it, making the Astros a worthy underdog when combining Brown’s current form with their elite relief unit.

Martin recommended Toronto –1 at –115, citing Kevin Gausman’s stark home/road split: a 2.00 ERA at Rogers Centre versus 5-plus on the road. He expects another strong outing against a Rays lineup he says has "cooled off" recently. Tampa starter Zack Littell has struggled in this park; his previous Toronto appearance lasted just 1.1 innings with three earned runs and more walks than strikeouts. Littell owns only 30 strikeouts in 47 innings overall. Martin believes the Jays own edges with the better starter, deeper lineup, and superior bullpen, but avoids a full 1.5-run line because the home club loses its final at-bat when leading.

Drew Martin laid out why he is willing to back Atlanta on a "minus-1" split wager at roughly –160. Rookie A.J. Smith-Shawver owns a 2.70 ERA and has allowed only six hits and one earned run over his last 14 innings. Atlanta also carries his No. 2–ranked bullpen by Drew’s numbers, giving them a massive late-inning edge over Washington’s league-worst relief corps. On the other side, Trevor Williams brings a 6.00 ERA, 53 hits in 41 innings, and has been tagged for 16 hits in his last 11 frames versus the Reds and Cardinals. Martin expects the Braves’ improving offense and superior pen to pull away, so he prefers the safer minus-1 structure to avoid full run-line exposure while still trimming the money-line juice.

Martin played Over 8 in Rays-Blue Jays because both starters are trending the wrong way and Rogers Centre historically boosts offense. Chris Bassitt has surrendered 28 hits and 15 earned runs in his last four starts, allowing multi-homer games in each of the past three outings. Ryan Pepiot has a 7-to-6 K/BB mark in his last three appearances, sports a 5.00 FIP, and sits at just 2-4 on the season. Martin expects Tampa’s bats to take advantage of Bassitt’s elevated home-run rate while Toronto should score enough against Pepiot to push the combined total past eight. He noted that if the game is 4-4 entering the ninth, bettors still cash because eight is a push number.

Martin is swinging for plus money with Oakland first-five innings around +190 versus the Dodgers. He believes Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s recent form—five earned runs and two homers allowed to Arizona and rising hits/walks over his last three outings—suggests the league is adjusting to his unique delivery. Oakland enters with a top-10 offense, and rookie right-hander Gunnar Hoglund (25-year-old first-rounder from Ole Miss) owns a sub-3.00 ERA, sub-3.00 FIP, and a 10-to-1 K/BB ratio through two starts while generating an elite swinging-strike rate. Martin thinks Hoglund can keep L.A.’s lineup quiet early, making the near 2-to-1 first-half price a worthwhile shot even though he concedes the Dodgers are superior overall.

Martin advised taking Atlanta at -160, calling it the only side worth considering against a spiraling Washington club that had dropped six straight entering Tuesday. He is fading Nationals rookie left-hander Mitchell Parker, who has allowed 15 earned runs over his last 13 innings with a troubling 6-to-11 K/BB ratio. Bryce Elder owns serviceable numbers for Atlanta and tossed a nine-inning shutout the only other time he faced Washington. Martin also cited a substantial bullpen advantage for the Braves, making the moderate price acceptable despite his reluctance to label it a premium play.

Drew Martin recommended betting the Yankees at -110 in Seattle, arguing New York owns clear edges on the mound, at the plate, and in the bullpen. He likes rookie right-hander Will Warren off a seven-plus inning, one-run, seven-strikeout gem in Sacramento and pointed to the Yankees’ league-best +80 run differential and No. 1 ranked offense overall, over the past week, and versus right-handed pitching. On the other side, Luis Castillo’s velocity was down in a five-run outing against Toronto, and he has only a 5-to-4 K/BB ratio over his past two starts. Castillo also lasted just five innings with seven hits, three walks, and two homers the last time he faced New York. With a superior bullpen backing Warren, Martin said the Bronx Bombers deserve to be bigger favorites than the pick-’em price being offered.

Martin grabbed Tampa Bay +110, calling it a "wrong-team favorite." He pointed to Jose Berrios’s five-walk game and a two-mph dip in fastball velocity, a combination he says often precedes an IL stint. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays rank bottom-10 versus right-handed pitching, and high-velocity arms have given them trouble—exactly what 97-98 mph Shane Baz brings. Baz blanked San Diego for seven innings his last road start and has allowed only two earned runs over 12 career innings against Toronto. The Rays also own the better bullpen and profile stronger against right-handed pitching. With Toronto merely 4-0 in its last four but potentially vulnerable, Martin likes the Rays to steal one north of the border.

Drew Martin recommended laying –145 with the Phillies to snap St. Louis’s nine-game winning streak. He trusts Jesus Luzardo, who sports a 2.11 ERA, 2.35 FIP, 51 strikeouts and a 3-0 record, calling him their "bet-on" arm all season. Although Sonny Gray has solid topline stats, Martin noted his fastball velocity has dipped and his best recent outing came against the light-hitting Pirates. Citizens Bank Park’s hitter-friendly dimensions plus Philadelphia’s deeper lineup (they out-hit the Cards 9-5 in Monday’s 3-2 loss) tilt the matchup toward the home side. Martin expects the superior starter and stickier offense to halt St. Louis’s run and cash the moneyline.

Drew Martin grabbed Kansas City at +104, arguing the wrong team is favored. Houston turns to 26-year-old rookie reliever Gusto for a spot start, and the Astros’ key bullpen arms have been overworked in the last four games. Michael Wacha sports a sub-3.00 ERA and just blanked his last opponent over seven frames. Four starts ago he tossed six shutout innings with six strikeouts against these same Astros, giving him 12 consecutive scoreless innings versus Houston dating back to last season. With a taxed Houston staff and Wacha’s proven success against this lineup, Martin prefers the Royals in Minute Maid Park.

Drew Martin played Detroit at a pick-em price (-105), noting the Tigers own MLB’s best record (26-15) and a +72 run differential while winning 14 of 19 at Comerica. Rookie Jackson Jobe, the former No. 3 overall pick, sits 97-98 mph and gets a pass for his poor Colorado start due to altitude. Martin expects a rebound versus a Red Sox offense ranked bottom-10 in wRC+ and team OPS over the last week. Tanner Houck brings a 6-plus ERA, is 0-2, and has been lit up on the road (23 ER, 24 IP, 34 hits). Detroit’s bats are scorching against righties and the bullpen ranks third on his board, so he’s riding the hotter lineup and superior relief corps.

Drew Martin backed the Cleveland Guardians at +118, citing several edges. Ben Lively has rewarded bettors in each of his last four turns, most recently holding Washington to two hits and one earned run. Cleveland remains home after Sunday Night Baseball while Milwaukee travels in after dropping three of four to Tampa. Martin highlighted how Freddie Peralta’s skipped start for a groin issue and his drastic 0.47 ERA at home versus 10 earned runs and 13 walks on the road this month create a prime fade spot. With the Brewers’ bats scuffling and the Guardians swinging well against right-handed pitching, Martin wants the live home dog and is risking 100 to win 118.

Martin laid -122 with Seattle, emphasizing team form: the M’s are 22-14 and 8-2 over their last 10, while Toronto is 6-12 on US soil and has dropped four of five. Blue Jays starter Bowden Francis is in freefall, surrendering 11 earned across his last seven innings and winless in his last four road starts. Seattle debuts rookie Logan Evans, who showed well in his lone home outing. More importantly, the Mariners boast MLB’s best numbers versus right-handed pitching, giving their lineup a clear edge. Martin called the 22-cent tax “short” given the trajectory of both clubs.

Martin grabbed the Marlins at +100 behind Edward Cabrera. He highlighted 20-mph winds to right center but a cool 53° forecast, conditions he believes favor Cabrera’s 98-mph, high-strikeout profile by limiting White Sox contact. Chicago rookie Shane Smith, a Rule 5 arm, has just six strikeouts against a slew of walks over his last two starts. With both offenses ranking bottom-five, Martin expects Cabrera’s strikeout upside and Miami’s recent baptism against the Dodgers to outweigh Chicago’s rare status as a favorite, making the underdog price attractive.

Martin took Philadelphia at the short -110 price even with Ranger Suarez making just his second start of the year. He argued Suarez’s rehab velocity looked normal and his lone rough outing came against a potent Arizona lineup. Cleveland counters with Tanner Bibee, whose surface 4.20 ERA masks an inflated 6+ FIP and a shaky 28-to-16 K:BB ratio. Guardians hitters have struggled versus lefties, and Martin believes the hotter Phillies lineup plus bullpen edge justify the pick, calling the number “short” for the matchup.