Dwain McFarland called George Kittle his favorite early-round tight end for 2025 at a Round 4 price tag. With Brandon Aiyuk rehabbing an ACL tear, Deebo Samuel gone, and rookie Ricky Pearsall plus Jauan Jennings unproven behind him, McFarland expects Kittle to retain a 22%-plus target share. Kittle already reminded managers of his ceiling last year, leading all TEs with 15.8 PPG and posting a 2.62 yards-per-route-run—right in line with peak seasons (2.82 in 2018, 3.12 in 2019, 2.84 in 2020). His down-field role remains intact (aDOT 9.9 and 8.9 the past two seasons), and Brock Purdy’s 268/258 passing-yard averages show the volume is there. Kyle Shanahan’s scheme ranks second in motion (64%) and two-WR sets (39%), plus Kittle saw 32% of his 2024 targets off play-action, boosting touchdown equity. Age places him behind Brock Bowers and Trey McBride in dynasty, but McFarland believes Kittle offers the most immediate upside at the position and should be the priority pick for redraft and early best-ball tournaments.

Dwain McFarland said George Kittle is his favorite early-round tight end target for 2025 at a Round 4 draft cost. McFarland expects Kittle’s target share to spike because Brandon Aiyuk is rehabbing a mid-season ACL tear, Deebo Samuel left in free agency, and rookie Ricky Pearsall plus Jauan Jennings are unproven behind him. When similar circumstances hit late last year, Kittle paced all TEs with 15.8 fantasy PPG (16.6 if you toss out a limited Week 18) on a 22 % target share. He also flashed vintage efficiency, posting 2.62 yards per route run—right in line with earlier peak seasons (2.82 in 2018, 3.12 in 2019, 2.84 in 2020). McFarland noted that Brock Purdy averaged 268 and 258 passing yards the past two seasons and Kyle Shanahan’s offense ranks second in motion usage (64 %) and two-WR sets (39 %), schemes that funnel throws to the tight end. Thirty-two percent of Kittle’s 2024 targets already came off play-action, boosting his down-field aDOTs (9.9 and 8.9 the last two years) and red-zone ceiling. McFarland concedes Kittle’s age keeps him below Brock Bowers and Trey McBride in his tiers, but argues the reduced target competition plus proven big-play ability give Kittle the highest week-winning upside among early-round TEs.

Dwain McFarland proclaimed Omarion Hampton a priority pick after Najee Harris landed on the NFI list with an eye issue. Hampton ranks 10th all-time in McFarland’s Rookie Super Model with a score of 79, clearing 75 in every sub-category. Historically, 73% of comps with that rating post a top-12 fantasy finish by Year 3 and 27% crack the top-6. McFarland emphasized Hampton’s NFL-ready size-speed profile and the immediate opportunity for starter reps while Harris recovers. With Hampton’s ADP already rising, McFarland expects him to push into Round 3 of summer drafts if he opens camp with the first team, making him an aggressive buy in season-long and best-ball formats.

Dwain McFarland argued that George Pickens is undervalued at his current Round-5 ADP and has genuine league-winner potential now that he has been traded from Pittsburgh to Dallas. McFarland’s projection shows the Cowboys attempting 66 more dropbacks than the 2024 Steelers—roughly the passing volume equivalent of two extra games—because Brian Schottenheimer’s offenses have averaged a 62% dropback rate compared to Arthur Smith’s 53% mark over the past three years. Pickens already posted Tee Higgins-level underlying usage last season (near-identical routes, targets per route run, and end-zone targets) despite catching "prayer balls" from the declining Russell Wilson. With a massive quarterback upgrade to Dak Prescott and Schottenheimer delivering "extremely bullish" comments about featuring him, McFarland expects a late-career, post-hype breakout and predicts the market will push Pickens two rounds earlier in 2026 drafts. Fantasy gamers drafting now get an inexpensive path to elite ceiling production in both season-long and best-ball formats.

Despite passing woes, McFarland likes Justin Fields as a Round-10 dice roll (ADP 116) who delivers immediate rushing-based QB1 weeks. Fields signed for two years, $40 M with $30 M guaranteed and has averaged 9.1 carries, 55 rushing yards and 0.45 rush TDs per game the last three seasons, generating 8.2 fantasy points on the ground alone. Fantasy points per drop-back (0.70, 0.52, 0.62) put him near Lamar’s non-spike years. Model: 15.6 floor, 19.0 median, 23.7 ceiling. Passing remains a concern (< 180 YPG career), but if the leg injury he suffered July 24 proves minor, Fields offers cheap mid-QB1 upside as your QB2 or late starter.

McFarland ranks Caleb Williams QB9 overall—well above his Round-10 ADP (114). After a rocky rookie campaign (15.6 PPG), Williams gets a massive infrastructure overhaul: Ben Johnson takes over play-calling, the offensive line jumps into both Thorn’s and PFF’s top-10 after adding Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman and Jonah Jackson, and the Bears drafted TE Colston Loveland plus WR Luther Burden to join DJ Moore. Williams already provided 28.8 rushing YPG on 81 attempts but scored zero rushing TDs; historical comps suggest ~3.6 TD regression. Projection: 14.9 floor, 18.2 median, 23.4 ceiling. McFarland believes Williams is one of few passers with realistic 4,500-yard/500-rush seasons in his range and is a must-target ceiling play.

With an ADP of 65 (Round 6), McFarland calls Patrick Mahomes the ultimate fearful fade and a potential league-winner if Kansas City’s young WRs pop. Despite two down fantasy years (18.3 and 18.8 PPG), Mahomes still runs for 20-24 yards per game and now pairs breakout candidates Rashee Rice (16.4 PPG Weeks 14-Super Bowl ’23) and Xavier Worthy (16.6 PPG Weeks 14-SB ’24) once Rice’s likely suspension ends. Andy Reid’s motion/play-design mastery plus a solid O-line keeps efficiency intact. Model: 15.6 floor, 18.9 median, 23.5 ceiling. McFarland admits he hasn’t drafted him enough and warns passing could look "VERY DUMB" by Week 6.

McFarland urged caution on Baker Mayfield at his Round-7 ADP (75.8). Mayfield’s 2024 QB8 season rode career-highs in TD rate (7.2%), YPA (7.9) and rushing (22.2 YPG). History shows even elite QBs rarely repeat spike seasons, and Tampa enters camp with warning signs: Mike Evans is 32, Chris Godwin is still sidelined by ankle dislocation, and LT Tristan Wirfs opened on PUP. McFarland’s model shows 15.1 floor, 18.2 median, 22.6 ceiling—similar to cheaper Tier-5 passers. He compares Mayfield’s 2025 risk profile to last year’s overdrafted C.J. Stroud and advises only taking him if he slides past ADP.

At Round-8 ADP (86.4) McFarland touts Bo Nix as a mid-QB1 candidate who could crack the top-4 if rushing and passing spikes align. The 2024 surprise QB8 averaged 235 passing yards and 25 rushing yards after Sean Payton lifted Denver’s DBOE from 1.5% to 2.5% mid-season. Nix logged 10% designed-run share (8th) plus 8% scramble rate and now gets upgrades in versatile pass catchers RJ Harvey, Evan Engram and rookie WR Pat Bryant while operating behind PFF’s No.2 offensive line. Projection model returns 15.2 floor, 18.5 median, 23.8 ceiling. McFarland loves him as an upside consolation if elite dual-threats slip away.

McFarland projects Joe Burrow as a strong bet for another top-six QB season yet warns drafters they must bypass premium WR/RB talent in Round 4 (ADP 45.6). In his two healthy campaigns Burrow averaged 284 passing yards, 2.35 TDs and added 14 rushing yards per game. Zac Taylor’s offense ranked 1st in 2024 DBOE (+8.0%) and 3rd in 2022, assuring volume while a shaky defense (25.5 PPG allowed) forces shoot-outs. Supporting cast remains elite with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Model: 17.0 floor, 20.5 median, 25.1 ceiling. Viable anchor in home leagues, but McFarland prefers cheaper upside swings later in sharper rooms.

McFarland labelled Jalen Hurts an "absolute smash" at his Round-4 consensus ADP (40.1). Even in a worst-case 2024 environment where Philly led on 47% of snaps and posted league-low 48% drop-back rate, Hurts still scored 22.0 PPG and ran for 13 TDs. He has recorded 14, 15 and 13 rushing TDs the last three years and commands a league-high 48% of the Eagles’ carries inside the 5. McFarland projects 54% drop-back rate in 2025 (in line with 2022-23), bumping passing to roughly 225 YPG while the league’s No.1 offensive line and addition of Saquon Barkley keep red-zone efficiency sky-high. Model range: 18.3 floor, 22.5 median, 28.5 ceiling. Cheapest path to elite dual-threat production.

Calling him the "least-uncertain" elite dual threat, McFarland argues Jayden Daniels could seize the QB1 crown in Year 2 and should be smashed at his mid-Round-3 ADP (32.6). Daniels delivered 21.1 PPG as a rookie, joining Newton, RG III, Mahomes, Lamar, Hurts and Herbert as the only 20-plus PPG first- or second-year starters since 2011. He ranked 1st in scramble rate (12%) and 5th in designed rush rate (18%), averaging 53 rushing yards and 241 passing yards per full game. In three playoff games he erupted for 274 passing yards and 23.8 fantasy points. Kingsbury’s screen/RPO heavy scheme meshes with new weapon Deebo Samuel while Terry McLaurin stretches the field. Projection model: 18.2 floor, 22.0 median, 27.7 ceiling. McFarland says Daniels and Lamar are the only QBs with realistic 4,000-pass/800-rush upside.

McFarland endorsed Lamar Jackson at his Round-3 ADP (pick 26-27) as a rock-solid alternative to Allen. Jackson just finished as overall QB1 with career-best passing marks (245 YPG, 8.8 YPA, 2.41 pass TDs). Regression is expected, but Todd Monken’s scheme still uses 29% play action and fuels high efficiency. While Jackson only gets 4% of Baltimore’s inside-the-five rushes (22nd among QBs), he ranks 4th in designed run rate (19%) and 7th in scramble rate (8%), keeping 1,000-yard rushing seasons firmly in play. Model range: 18.3 floor, 22.5 median, 28.5 ceiling PPG. McFarland advises scooping him when Round-3 RB/WR options feel uninspiring.

Dwain McFarland said Josh Allen remains the premier floor-plus-ceiling quarterback and is worth a Round-3 pick in every 2025 season-long or best-ball draft. Allen has averaged 24.7 fantasy PPG since 2022, with four straight overall QB1 finishes before last year’s QB2 result. Even under Joe Brady’s more balanced attack (-1.8% drop-back rate over expectation in 2024), Allen still posted 233 passing yards and 15% of Buffalo’s designed rushes, plus an 11% scramble rate. The Bills have given him 37–48% of red-zone carries inside the 5 the past three seasons, producing 7, 15 and 12 rushing TDs. McFarland’s floor/median/ceiling model spits 18.8/23.0/28.9 PPG. Behind PFF’s No.3 O-line and with youthful receivers Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid still having breakout potential, McFarland calls Allen “one of the safest picks on the board” and a priority when the elite WR tier dries up.

Placing Michael Penix in Tier 8, McFarland acknowledged the former Husky offers little rushing on paper but argued he is the most likely from that tier to surprise on the ground in Year 2. Penix inherits a trio of weapons—Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Bijan Robinson—while new OC Zac Robinson brings heavy pre-snap motion (63%, 5th) from the Rams. If Robinson adds more play-action to the scheme, Penix could outproduce his late-round ADP.

McFarland pushed J.J. McCarthy into Tier 7 and nearly jumped him to Tier 4, citing the Vikings’ loaded skill group and McCarthy’s underrated mobility. If the rookie “spins it like his predecessors” and adds rushing value, McFarland believes it will be difficult for him to fail, making McCarthy a priority sleeper at the tail end of drafts.

Dwain McFarland listed Drake Maye in Tier 4 and said the second-year Patriot is "poised to make a run at a breakout campaign in 2025." Maye pairs top-tier arm talent with rushing juice, giving him the same dual-threat profile that elevates fantasy ceilings. McFarland recommended drafting him before market price, projecting that if the development curve holds, Maye could be a Round 5 selection in 2026 drafts.

McFarland slotted Caleb Williams into Tier 4 at QB9 overall and called him one of the few passers capable of 4,500 passing yards and 500 rushing yards in the same season. The rookie’s Round 10 ADP bakes in complete bust risk, but McFarland views the cost as a perfect gamble because the payoff is high-end QB1 production without the early-round opportunity cost.

Dwain McFarland ranked Jayden Daniels in Tier 1 and said he could seize the QB1 mantle this season. Daniels and Lamar Jackson are the only quarterbacks McFarland projects for an 800-yard rushing ceiling plus 4,000 passing-yard upside. Because Daniels is routinely available in the middle of Round 3 and carries less weekly-floor volatility than most dual-threats, McFarland advised fantasy managers to "smash the draft button" wherever he slides.

Dwain McFarland urged drafters to pump the brakes on Omarion Hampton’s surging ADP. He noted that Jim Harbaugh has already said Najee Harris is “healing,” and even a short-term Harris absence would not turn the rookie into a bell cow. McFarland highlighted Greg Roman’s long track record of using at least two backs; last year, while J.K. Dobbins rattled off multiple 100-yard, multi-TD games, Gus Edwards still handled 33% of the designed rushes. Expect a similar Harris/Hampton timeshare, making Hampton unlikely to pay off his current price unless the backfield usage changes dramatically.