For his dog, Rockford took Cincinnati at +130, noting that left-hander Andrew Abbott has been “a beast at home” while Atlanta’s lineup has shown little life. He added that Atlanta is acting like a seller and “waving the white flag,” so he doubts where the Braves’ offense will come from. The combination of home dominance from Abbott and a shaky Braves attack made the Reds his favorite underdog.

Rockford’s numbers make Seattle a -160 favorite. Kirby typically provides six innings with an above-average ground-ball rate, while the Rangers rank 24th in walks and send out Kumar Rocker, who owns a 9.91 road ERA and .354 opponent average. Texas has lost six of Rocker’s seven away starts and already fell to Seattle in his first meeting. For Rockford, it is Mariners or nothing.

Dylan Rockford echoed the run-line play, citing Abbott’s 4-1 record and 1.93 ERA in Cincinnati. Abbott has not allowed more than one run in four straight home outings, while Atlanta’s offense struggles on the road and against southpaws. MLB.com lists Carlos Carrasco as Thursday’s starter; Rockford noted Carrasco’s long-ball issues and the Braves’ shaky bullpen. With Cincinnati’s park boosting run production, he sees value in Reds -1.5 at +130.

Dylan Rockford’s “bold call” is that the Guardians will keep Steven Kwan through the deadline. Rockford said Cleveland rarely dumps controllable talent unless blown away and believes there is a gap between how the Guardians value Kwan’s elite defense/OBP skill set and how power-hungry front offices price him. Because Kwan remains under team control for at least one more season, Rockford expects any move to wait until the winter. Season-long fantasy managers can hold Kwan with confidence, knowing his everyday role and run-scoring opportunities in Cleveland should remain intact.

Dylan Rockford predicted Arizona will move ace Zach Gallen before the trade deadline. Rockford thinks several contenders—he specifically listed Houston, Toronto, Seattle, the Cubs, the Phillies and the Padres—need a frontline starter and have the prospect capital to get a deal done. Because the Diamondbacks are fading and Gallen’s value is peaking, Rockford expects Arizona to cash in now. Bettors holding Diamondbacks futures or Cy Young tickets should be prepared for a potential odds shift once Gallen is moved to a new park and league.

Dylan Rockford called Austin Slater a sneaky DFS and short-term season-long play whenever the Yankees face a left-handed starter. Although Slater "is not having the best year," Rockford stressed his strong splits versus southpaws and pointed out that New York’s outfield is stretched thin with Aaron Judge still sidelined, Giancarlo Stanton limited to DH, and Jasson Dominguez viewed as a defensive liability. Slater has already logged 15 games in right field and nine in left, so Rockford expects Aaron Boone to deploy him immediately in a strict platoon, giving fantasy managers a cheap power/speed option in Yankee Stadium’s short porch against lefties.

Dylan Rockford followed Reichel on Pittsburgh, stressing that Keller’s 3.53 ERA and 26% strike-out rate are far better than his 4-10 record suggests. Rockford hammered San Francisco’s 2-8 skid and miserable 13-37 straight-up mark away from Oracle Park. With the Giants undecided between Landen Roupp or Carson Whisenhunt—both sporting ERAs north of five in Triple-A—Rockford made the Pirates –115 and sees plus money as a gift. He added that Pittsburgh’s lineup has averaged 4.9 runs over the past week, enough support for Keller to finish six strong and hand things to a rested back-end bullpen.

Dylan Rockford prefers Rangers –0.5 in the first five innings. He emphasized Texas’ 36-16 straight-up record when favored and cited their dominant split when leading after five frames. Rockford expects Bruce Bochy to have a fully rested deGrom on a normal schedule, while the Angels appear headed for a bullpen game that could feature long reliever Zach Plesac (5.11 ERA) in the bulk role. Given Texas’ 117 wRC+ versus right-handers and Los Angeles’ league-worst bullpen ERA in July, Rockford wants exposure before the Rangers potentially go to lesser relievers late.

Dylan Rockford echoed the play, saying his projection priced Miami –110. Rockford highlighted Cabrera’s post-May turnaround—roughly a 2.00 ERA and sub-.250 wOBA against—while Pallante’s ERA has ballooned to 7.71 during the same span. The Cardinals offense owns just a .688 OPS in July, so Rockford does not expect them to punish Cabrera’s occasional walks. With St. Louis lineup ice-cold and Pallante failing to work past the fifth inning in four straight appearances, Rockford sees clear value taking the Fish at any plus number.

Dylan Rockford made Milwaukee –130 yet found them around –110 and pounced. Mizorowski has allowed a lone run in three home starts (3-0 team record) and Milwaukee sits 15 games over .500 at home. While Boyd’s story is great, Rockford doubts he can keep posting zeros against a Brewers lineup that owns a 117 wRC+ versus left-handers and has the league’s fourth-lowest strike-out rate in that split. He also noted Chicago’s bullpen showed cracks on the recent West-Coast trip. Rockford will gladly take the discounted price on the hotter club.

Dylan Rockford went the other way, pricing Minnesota at –130 and laying the –125. He cannot trust Rich Fitz, noting Boston is 0-5 in his road starts, including a loss to the White Sox. Fitz rarely reaches the sixth inning and gives up plenty of traffic (1.38 WHIP). The Twins, by contrast, hit .253 with a 107 wRC+ at Target Field and have an above-average bullpen behind Woods Richardson. Rockford projects enough offense for Minnesota to overcome their recent skid and sees value as long as the moneyline stays south of –135.

Dylan Rockford backed Reichel’s Royals play, hammering Atlanta’s ugly profile against left-handed pitching (.221 average, .652 OPS) and on the road (22-39). He pointed out the Braves have lost four straight overall and are reportedly dangling Orlando Arcia and others, signaling a clubhouse that’s checked out. Rich Hill’s craftiness still plays, while any combo of Strider on a pitch count or Davis Daniel doesn’t justify a –180 road price. Rockford’s model made Kansas City –105 and he called anything +130 or better an autoplay.

Dylan Rockford grabbed Cincinnati at +154, insisting the market is inflating L.A. because of Yamamoto’s name value. His model made Los Angeles only –150 once he adjusted for a shaky Dodgers bullpen that ranks bottom-10 in xFIP over the past month. Rockford acknowledged Chase Burns’ volatility but noted the rookie has actually been competent in Great American Ball Park (including a June victory over the Yankees) and still misses bats at an elite clip. The Reds’ offense owns a 115 wRC+ since the break and is finally healthy, so he expects them to score enough before Dave Roberts turns the game over to middle relief. In a game he projects closer to a coin flip, Rockford is happy to ride the plus money on the improving home side.

Dylan Rockford backed Scott’s play and punched the Guardians –1.5 as well, but added several data points. His model made Cleveland a –$2.00 favorite and he sees value at the current –118 run-line tag. The Rockies are scoring just 2.94 runs per game on the road, have dropped six of Balaylock’s last seven starts—including every road outing—and own one of baseball’s worst bullpens. Rockford also likes how Cleveland’s bats have come alive since the break, making a multi-run margin far more attainable. In his words, “Rockies stink on the road, Guardians are rolling—keep it simple.”

Dylan Rockford echoed Reichel’s stance, saying he priced Toronto at -130 and is happy to grab the Jays at the current market number near -120. He trusts Chris Bassitt despite a modest home/road split and sees Zach Eflin’s 5.78 ERA and four-game losing streak as a major liability for Baltimore. Rockford added that the market has routinely disrespected Toronto all season, offering bettors frequent value spots like Saturday’s +168 win over Detroit. He will continue backing the Jays until bookmakers adjust.

Rockford projected Houston as a –160 favorite assuming rookie right-hander Ryan Gusto gets the nod opposite Luis Severino, so any price below that is a green light on the Astros moneyline. He noted Houston has flipped the switch, winning three straight while leading MLB in opponent batting average over the past ten games. Minute Maid Park has been a cash machine—33-19 straight up—and the Astros still boast a top-five bullpen. Oakland, meanwhile, owns one of the league’s worst relief corps and has cratered since the All-Star break. Severino is 0-2 against Houston because the A’s pen routinely implodes after he exits. Given form, bullpen disparity, and home dominance, Rockford is laying anything shorter than –160 with Houston.

Dylan Rockford could not stomach Detroit as a –130 favorite, calling their lineup "broken" for more than a month. The Tigers have dropped six straight and scored just one run Wednesday versus Pittsburgh. While he acknowledged Reese Olson has been solid, Rockford pointed to Toronto’s 12-4 July record, a 4-1 run in Eric Lauer’s last five road starts, and a top-five bullpen that keeps the Jays in every game. With a plus-money price available, he is taking the Blue Jays moneyline and passing on anything involving the slumping Tigers.

Rockford priced Seattle at –105 yet found them around +110, calling it blatant mis-pricing. The Mariners lead baseball in road scoring (5.40 runs per game) and are batting .270 away from T-Mobile Park. Angels starter Yusei Kikuchi has coughed up three-plus runs in back-to-back home appearances, and Los Angeles backs him with a bottom-five bullpen and error-prone defense. Given the Angels’ streaky nature, shaky pen, and Seattle’s road dominance, Rockford views any plus-money offer on the M’s as automatic value.

Dylan Rockford also singled out Toronto at +120 as a live underdog. He noted the Blue Jays "looked good against Freed last time out," said the lineup is currently "mashing," and blasted the Yankees as a "poorly run baseball team." Echoing earlier discussion that New York is being overrated by oddsmakers, Rockford concluded the wrong team is favored and recommended taking the Jays at any plus price.

Dylan Rockford made Milwaukee his official "dog" play, grabbing the Brewers anywhere from +116 to +120. He stressed that it is hard to pass on a club riding an 11-game win streak and went as far as to say that rookie right-hander Quinn Priester is "better than Luis Castillo right now." Rockford argued the betting market has not caught up to Milwaukee’s current form, so any plus-money number is worthwhile against a Seattle squad whose ace has not been as sharp.

Dylan Rockford went the other way on the same matchup, grabbing White Sox first-five +0.5 (and sprinkling ML) behind Jonathan Cannon. Cannon has allowed three earned or fewer in four straight starts and Chicago is 4-0 in those games. Rockford noted Tampa rookie Taj Bradley’s almost-five ERA at Tropicana and pointed out the White Sox have exploded for 35 runs over their last four outings. With Chicago’s bats hot and Cannon in form, his model made the Sox a slight F5 favorite, so getting a half-run plus money was a must-bet. He summed it up simply: “You can’t go against the White Sox right now.”

Dylan Rockford laid –120 on Cleveland, saying the market is underrating them; his number made the Guardians –145. He cited Charlie Morton’s brutal road profile—6.81 ERA, .300 opponent average—and reminded listeners that Tampa just pounded him for seven runs last week. Cleveland roughed him up for five in five back in May, and the O’s bullpen has been leaky. Conversely, Rockford trusts the Guardians’ relief corps and likes that their offense has erupted for eight or more runs in three of four second-half games. Even though Slade Cecconi’s home metrics are mediocre, Rockford thinks the bats and bullpen edge justify the price and called Baltimore a "bad spot" with Morton’s current form.

Rockford bet Over 11, projecting the game at 11.4 runs given the combination of Andre Pallante and Kyle Freeland plus Coors Field’s elevation and a bottom-five Rockies bullpen. Freeland owns a 6.00 ERA at home with opponents slugging .349, while Pallante has been worse on the road lately, coughing up 12 earned across his last two starts. The Cardinals scored six runs Tuesday and Rockford expects their bats to stay hot, but he also sees Colorado’s lineup tagging Pallante enough to cash the total. With neither starter trustworthy, he prefers attacking runs rather than paying –190 on St. Louis.

Dylan Rockford grabbed Royals +0.5 in the first five innings, arguing that Seth Lugo’s profile and the Wrigley weather make Kansas City the sharper side. Lugo has held opponents to a .220 average and has surrendered more than two earned runs on the road just once in his last six outings. Rockford noted the daytime wind blowing out near 10 mph, a classic recipe for a volatile Wrigley game that could punish Colin Rea, whom he called ‘another streaky arm I can’t get right.’ The Cubs are laying –142, yet Rockford’s numbers made them only –130, so he is happy to take the half-run with a Royals offense that has quietly surged in the second half. Chicago’s bats, meanwhile, “aren’t tearing up the ball,” which further tilts the opening five-frame edge toward the visitors.

Dylan Rockford recommended taking the Pirates first-five +0.5 behind Bailey Falter. While Falter’s overall line is a pedestrian 6-5, 4.00 ERA, Rockford highlighted his strong PNC splits: 5-2 record with a 3.65 ERA and a .228 opponent average at home. He trusts Falter to keep Detroit quiet because the Tigers have scored just three runs in their last four games and rank near the bottom of every offensive metric since the break. On the other side sits 24-year-old Keider Melton, who will be making his MLB debut. Rockford prefers fading a debutante—especially one backed by a lineup that ‘can’t buy a run right now’—and pointed out that the Pirates offense has actually out-produced Detroit since the All-Star break. Pittsburgh is three games over .500 at home despite being 21 under overall, reinforcing the value of the half-run cushion through five.

Rockford’s model made the total 8.7, so he played Over 8 at even money. He cited Dylan Cease’s 0-6 road record, .265 opponent average, and 3-plus runs allowed in six of his last seven away starts. Sandy Alcantara has been even worse, carrying a 7.14 ERA overall and a 5.37 mark at home while surrendering 22 earned across his last four outings (23 IP). The Marlins quietly rank as a top-10 home offense, and neither bullpen can be trusted. All signs, Rockford said, point to a game that gets into double digits more often than not.

Dylan Rockford backed Cincinnati at –140, stressing that Nick Lodolo profiles as a clear edge over Mike Soroka. Lodolo owns a 2.56 ERA on the road with opponents batting just .200, and his improved control is allowing him to pitch deeper into games. Washington’s pen remains the league’s worst and has been asked to cover heavy innings because Soroka has lasted five frames or fewer in seven straight outings. The Nationals have dropped seven consecutive Soroka starts and each of the last six by at least four runs. Rockford said the matchup and bullpen disparity make the Reds a justifiable money-line piece even at moderate juice.

Dylan Rockford fired on a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. home-run prop versus Carlos Rodon. Guerrero went yard Sunday and now faces a left-hander lugging a 5.47 road ERA and 1.8 HR/9 away from the Bronx. Rockford highlighted Vlad’s career .606 SLG against southpaws at Rogers Centre and his recent spike in launch angle that has produced four barrels in the last week. Toronto as a club mashes at home (.275/.345/.458) while Rodon’s four-seamer has been tattooed for a .289 xBA and .548 xSLG this season. Given Guerrero’s history of punishing elevated fastballs, Rockford likes him to leave the yard again at prices of +350 or better.

Rockford is fine swallowing the –220 or, better yet, laying –1.5 with Los Angeles against Minnesota call-up David Festa. Festa owns a 5.46 ERA at AAA St. Paul and now debuts in Dodger Stadium versus an offense slashing .280/.354/.486 at home. Shohei Ohtani has been the Dodgers’ most bankable starter since June, boasting a 1.89 ERA and a 36% strikeout rate in his last five Chavez Ravine turns. The Twins are just 19-31 on the road and average barely 3.7 runs per game away from Target Field. With Festa unlikely to work deep and Minnesota’s middle relief shaky, Rockford projected a 6-2 Dodgers win and recommended the run line at –110 or better.

Rockford laid –120 with the Mariners in what he calls a true coin-flip matchup. Seattle is 6-1 in George Kirby’s last seven outings, and the right-hander’s Stuff+ metrics have jumped since early June. Rockford prefers Seattle’s bullpen—fifth in K-BB% since the All-Star break—over Milwaukee’s still-uneven relief corps. Offensively he grades the lineups as near-identical, so home park and late-inning trust become the tiebreakers. He priced Seattle –120 and would play them to –125.

Rockford took Houston at +130, fading Zac Gallen’s puzzling home splits (5.12 Chase Field ERA) and a Diamondbacks bullpen sitting 27th in xFIP. He argued the Astros’ lineup is still top-10 in hard-hit rate and poised for positive regression after a quiet weekend. Colton Gordon has held opponents to a .219 average on the road, and Rockford trusts Houston’s late-inning arms—now fully rested after the break—much more than Arizona’s. His model made the game D-backs –115, so anything +120 or better on Houston is a go.

Dylan Rockford bet under 9 in A’s-Rangers, calling the number a run too rich with Jacob deGrom scheduled to go for Texas. Rockford reminded listeners that deGrom has allowed more than two earned runs at Globe Life only once all season and sports a sub-2.00 home ERA. Opposite him is Jacob Lopez, who has held opponents under four earned in five of his last seven and has quietly cashed five unders during that stretch. With Oakland’s offense still 28th in wRC+ and Texas’ bats maddeningly inconsistent, Rockford projected a 4-1 or 4-2 final. He would play the full-game under at –120 down to 8.5 and would also consider an Athletics team-total under given deGrom’s dominance.

With numbers off the board, Rockford projected Chicago as –150 favorites assuming Chris Flexen starts. He acknowledged Noah Cameron’s sparkling road line (0.93 ERA in five away starts) but argued Wrigley presents the stiffest test he has faced: the Cubs boast one of MLB’s top home OPS marks, a four-game win streak prior to Sunday’s hiccup, and a reliable late-inning relief corps. Kansas City’s bats crater on the road and their bullpen is bottom-five in xFIP. Anything –150 or cheaper on Chicago is a buy for Rockford once the market opens.

Dylan Rockford echoed Bamford but stressed the price: +114 on ‑1.5. Senga’s home splits are elite—0.96 ERA, .194 BAA—and the right-hander has gone at least four frames in every start while the Mets slowly lengthen his leash. Rockford cited the Angels’ travel-induced cold streak and their .232 road average as further evidence Los Angeles will struggle to plate runs. He wants no part of Tyler Anderson on the highway (5.47 road ERA) and believes Senga plus a still-underrated Mets bullpen make the run-line the only bet worth making.

Rockford will ride the Jays at near-even money after they swept the Giants and rolled into the break swinging hot sticks. Toronto is slashing .275 at Rogers Centre and plated 20-plus runs over the weekend. They have also dominated the season series, winning five of seven and four in a row against New York. He still distrusts the Yankee bullpen and notes that Carlos Rodon’s road ERA is materially worse than his home mark. Even though his model made New York a slight favorite, the situational edge, recent offensive form, and bullpen gap push him firmly to the Toronto side.

Dylan Rockford is happy to lay –1.5 with Philadelphia, making them a –215 favorite on his numbers. Wheeler has been nearly untouchable in Philly (1.91 ERA, 6-1, opponents hitting .164) and enjoys an even longer rest coming out of the break. Rockford expects Boston’s recent offensive slump to continue— the Sox managed just one combined run Friday/Saturday and have struggled to string hits together since the All-Star Game. On the other side, he projects Bueller to allow at least four earned runs given his 8+ road ERA and month-long fade leading into the layoff. Add Wheeler’s strikeout upside and a deep Philadelphia lineup, and Rockford sees the short run-line price as the cleanest way to attack the matchup.

Dylan Rockford grabbed Nationals first-five +0.5, leaning on Jake Irvin’s drastic home/road split. Irvin has not allowed more than three earned in a Nationals Park start since April 9 (the lone blemish came against the Dodgers), and Washington is generally competitive early when he pitches. Rockford wants no part of the Nats’ shaky bullpen, so limiting the wager to the opening five frames makes sense. He thinks two or three early runs off Brady Singer are well within reach given Singer’s middling recent form (three, two, two and four earned runs his last four starts). With the plus-half hook attached, Rockford sees the Nats as a live under-the-radar play in the first half.

Rockford matched Bamford’s position, pricing Miami to –135. He highlighted Eury Perez’s ridiculous LoanDepot numbers: 2.53 ERA, 0 HR allowed, .132 BAA, and a 5-2 team record in seven home starts. He views the Marlins lineup as the more consistent unit, while Randy Vasquez struggles away from Petco and faces a Fish club hitting .257 at home. San Diego’s road slash line sits at .243/.308/.388. With the Marlins boasting a bullpen advantage as well, Rockford sees clear value on the home side.

Rockford took Detroit at +105 despite Paul Skenes going for Pittsburgh. His rationale: the Pirates are 1-9 in their last 10 and rank near the bottom of MLB in wRC+ during that span, while Detroit is a top-10 road offense (.264 AVG, 4.9 RPG away from Comerica). He admits Skenes is the superior arm but questions whether Pittsburgh can supply more than a couple runs. If you absolutely must back Skenes, he suggests isolating a first-five play, but full game value clearly sits with the Tigers’ livelier bats.