Dylan Rockford suggested fading the Braves early in the season as a promising betting angle. He pointed to Atlanta's significant offensive struggles, highlighted by a stretch of over 30 innings where the Braves managed only one run scored. Rockford explained that sportsbooks often set soft betting lines early in the MLB season due to their focus on more popular sports like NBA and NHL playoffs. Consequently, finding teams like Atlanta—a popular betting team traditionally considered a playoff-caliber squad—who are underperforming early on creates a valuable opportunity to capitalize by betting against inflated lines.

Dylan Rockford confidently chose the Mets money line (-124) as his lock play. His model has the Mets priced significantly higher (-140), creating value. Griffin Canning, despite historical volatility, showed promise in his first start. Rockford also mentioned the Mets' bullpen excellence (ranked second-best currently), solid recent offensive momentum, and a revenge factor against Blue Jays pitcher Chris Bassitt, who previously pitched for New York. Given these multiple favorable factors, Rockford believes Mets have a strong edge and clear winning path at the current odds.

Dylan Rockford enthusiastically backed Pete Alonso as his home run pick against former teammate Chris Bassitt. Alonso has been performing impressively at the plate recently, and Rockford emphasized the added motivational factor going against an ex-teammate. Given Alonso's potent bat, recent hot streak, and familiarity with Bassitt, Rockford strongly supported the Mets slugger as a confident home run wager.

Dylan Rockford suggested exploring Tanner Bibee pitcher props due to the Angels' pronounced struggles against right-handed pitching (.189 average vs righties) and their generally poor contact trends. Dylan praised Bibee's strong season-opening performance (five shutout innings vs the Royals) and expressed that he believes the Angels' early 4-2 record is misleading, inflating their perceived abilities. Given the shaky Angels lineup and Bibee's promising initial form, Rockford sees potential in targeting Bibee's pitching props as the most profitable angle in this game.

Dylan Rockford recommended betting the Mariners (+105), citing his numerical model that made Seattle slight favorites at -105 despite market prices. Rockford noted the Giants' recent four-game winning streak might lead to overconfidence and suggested a letdown spot could occur. He trusts Mariners starter Bryce Miller significantly more than San Francisco's Robbie Ray, who struggled previously this season against a weak Reds team. Additionally, Seattle hits lefties well, while the Giants have shown better success against lefties than righties. Altogether, these factors provided Rockford with clear value on Seattle as the underdog.

Dylan Rockford sees strong betting value in backing the Mets money line at -124, with his analytical models pricing the Mets closer to -140 favorites. Rockford liked Griffin Canning's first outing and praised the Mets' bullpen, currently second-best in MLB. Conversely, he expressed skepticism towards the Blue Jays' bullpen reliability and Chris Bassitt, who previously showed volatile performances during his time in New York. Given the Mets' improved recent offensive form highlighted by Pete Alonso's home run hitting, and their bullpen advantage, Rockford confidently backs the Mets at the current price.

Dylan Rockford liked the over (8 runs) in the Marlins-Braves matchup, primarily due to continuing struggles from Miami's Cal Quantrill. Despite acknowledging Quantrill's vulnerability (he gave up six runs in four innings against the Mets), Rockford also believes Miami can put some runs up on Braves starter AJ Smith, whom he described as merely okay—neither good nor bad. Dylan mentioned the Marlins being notably feisty offensively early in the season. Given both teams' potential run production and Quantrill's persistent struggles, Rockford saw clear value betting the over rather than picking a side.

Dylan Rockford recommends backing the Rangers on the run line at +125, primarily due to Jacob deGrom's strong opening performance (five scoreless innings, two hits, six strikeouts) against a solid Red Sox lineup. He believes the Rays' recent offensive numbers have been artificially inflated due to weak competition (Pirates and Rockies), anticipating a regression when facing tougher pitching. Rockford also notes the Rangers' bullpen as decent and sees limited scoring opportunities for Tampa in this spot. With his projection having Rangers comfortably winning and returning home, he's confident that the run line at plus money shows clear betting value.

Backing Michael Wacha and the Royals in the first five innings is Dylan Rockford's preferred wager against Baltimore. Wacha impressed Dylan in his season debut despite a tough-luck loss, and he likes the idea of relying on the more consistent pitcher with proven success for Kansas City rather than risking uncertainty from both bullpens. Rockford priced Kansas City slightly higher (at -125), providing additional value at the current odds, and sees this as an edge play, specifically through the first half of the game.

Dylan Rockford strongly advised backing the Padres at plus 105 odds. He cited the Padres' bullpen as currently the best in the league, significantly outperforming the Cubs' inconsistent bullpen situation. While acknowledging a good recent stretch for the Cubs' offense, Rockford downplayed that success as inflated by weaker competition (the Oakland Athletics), making them less trustworthy against tougher matchups. Despite an opening game loss, the Padres are poised to bounce back, especially given that he's priced them as -116 favorites. Adding further support, Padres pitcher Nick Pivetta's strong performance against a strong Braves lineup was highlighted, lending additional confidence to the bet.

Dylan Rockford highlighted the Yankees' strong matchup against the Pirates and their inconsistency so far this season, specifically noting that Pittsburgh predominantly finds success only when Paul Skenes is pitching. With Skenes out of the rotation for this game and the Yankees offense thriving—especially against left-handers (.314 average)—Rockford recommended taking advantage of the Yankees run line at +114 odds. Although he's not bullish on Marcus Stroman, he feels confident enough aligning with the Yankees potent lineup to cover the run line in this matchup.

Dylan Rockford is down on Bailey Falter heading into his matchup against the Yankees. Despite Falter coming off a good outing against the Marlins, Rockford doesn't see a repeat performance here due to New York's strong success against lefties, hitting .314 on the season. Falter is set up poorly facing the Yankees offense, which recently woke up with nine runs scored in one game and continues to look sharp offensively. Rockford suggests exploiting this mismatch by playing the Yankees either on the run line at plus 114 or the money line at minus 142. He also likes the over (8.5) given the pitching matchup and sees strong potential for runs.

Dylan Rockford is backing the Diamondbacks at -135 odds, despite Eduardo Rodriguez’s underwhelming stretch with Arizona. He highlighted Arizona's strong offense, top 10 to this point, contrasting sharply with the Nationals’ struggles against left-handed pitching (batting under .200 this season). Even though Nationals starter Mitchell Parker looked solid against the Phillies, Rockford strongly emphasized Washington's atrocious bullpen as a major point of vulnerability, believing they'll squander any early lead. His own handicapping priced Arizona as a -145 favorite, further strengthening his confidence and highlighting the betting edge at current pricing.

Dylan Rockford recommended the Dodgers at plus 110, noting strong value given their potency at the plate. Although Roki Sasaki's initial MLB performances have been shaky, Rockford placed more emphasis on the Dodgers' offense and bullpen advantage over Philadelphia. Additionally, Phillies starter Aaron Nola struggled considerably against a relatively weak Nationals offense (allowing five earned runs in five innings), signaling vulnerability against a far superior Dodgers lineup. Rockford's own numbers priced the Dodgers as favorites at -115, indicating value at current odds. He also likes the under 8.5 total, suggesting faith in bullpen matchups to limit scoring late.

Dylan Rockford strongly liked the Astros at slight plus money due to anticipated offense improvement against struggling Minnesota starter Bailey Ober, who was crushed for eight earned runs across just 2.2 innings in his opening start versus St Louis. Dylan also emphasized weather conditions, noting strong winds blowing out to center field at approximately 13 mph, further encouraging run-scoring conditions. Given Ober's disastrous opener and weather favorability, he feels confident in the Astros offense turning around recent sluggish performances and pushing the total beyond the listed 7.5 line.

Dylan Rockford recommended backing the Detroit Tigers on the run line at plus money based on his expectation of a strong bounce-back game from starting pitcher Reese Olson. Olson's disappointing first appearance came against the formidable Dodgers lineup, an extremely challenging matchup. Rockford believes Olson is a better pitcher than that outing indicated, and he'll perform significantly better against Chicago's struggling offense. With Detroit returning home (after winning their first home game against the White Sox), Rockford forecasts a morale boost and a solid start from Olson.

Dylan Rockford strongly expresses doubts about Reds pitcher Nick Martinez against Milwaukee, pointing to Martinez’s concerning outing against San Francisco (four earned runs over six innings). Rockford noted Cincinnati’s struggles offensively, scoring zero runs in the last two innings of recent games, and predicted similar concerns continuing. While Milwaukee faced challenges earlier, Rockford felt their recent wins against the Yankees signaled recovery. He emphasized willingness to bet on Milwaukee depending on pitcher confirmation, clearly indicating opposition to Cincinnati attributed to Martinez and their unreliable offense.

Despite Atlanta's poor start (0-7, only 14 runs scored through seven games), Dylan Rockford identifies a buy-low opportunity on the Braves at home. He recognizes Atlanta has struggled dramatically offensively, batting under .180 so far, but points out Spencer Schwellenbach pitched extremely well previously versus San Diego, deserving a win. Rockford expects a bounce-back against Miami's Max Meyer, predicting Atlanta's lineup finally gets going at home. He urges betting the Braves' team total over and the runline (-1.5), strongly expecting a built-up offensive explosion after their slow start.

Dylan Rockford supports betting the Los Angeles Angels both first five innings and full game against Cleveland. Rockford highlights the Angels' home opener after two road series, noting they are playing surprisingly well despite a tough start to the season. He praised starter Jose Soriano's previous excellent outing (seven scoreless innings pitched, two hits allowed against White Sox). Rockford also points out Cleveland's tiring schedule, facing their third straight road series. Although the Guardians hold recent success over Angels historically, Cleveland’s offense is struggling (two earned runs or fewer in three straight games). Trusting Soriano over Cleveland’s pitcher Gavin Williams (five consecutive losses despite a decent outing against Royals), Rockford considers betting the Angels at home strong value.

Dylan Rockford supports betting the Los Angeles Angels both first five innings and full game against Cleveland. Rockford highlights the Angels' home opener after two road series, noting they are playing surprisingly well despite a tough start to the season. He praised starter Jose Soriano's previous excellent outing (seven scoreless innings pitched, two hits allowed against White Sox). Rockford also points out Cleveland's tiring schedule, facing their third straight road series. Although the Guardians hold recent success over Angels historically, Cleveland’s offense is struggling (two earned runs or fewer in three straight games). Trusting Soriano over Cleveland’s pitcher Gavin Williams (five consecutive losses despite a decent outing against Royals), Rockford considers betting the Angels at home strong value.

Dylan Rockford advises fading Cleveland's Gavin Williams when facing the Angels in LA. Rockford mentioned Williams has performed inconsistently with five straight losses. Though Williams delivered an acceptable start previously against Kansas City, Rockford expects Williams will continue struggling against a confident Angels lineup playing their home opener following productive road series. He expects the Angels to generate offense early against Williams, planning a unit split between first five innings and full game wagers on Los Angeles. Cleveland's offensive struggles (two runs or fewer in last three games) further bolster Rockford's negative outlook on Williams' chances in this matchup.

Dylan Rockford sees value backing the Nationals in the first five innings against Arizona due to Washington's decent starting pitching and avoiding their problematic bullpen (ERA over 7.5 and allowing 9.61 runs per nine innings). While he acknowledges Jake Irvin hasn't been perfect (two earned runs on seven hits last start), he thinks Washington catches Arizona in a "sleepy spot," predicting a slow offensive start from the Diamondbacks that will benefit the Nationals early. Rockford suggests the first five innings bet offered at plus money is ideal, given Nationals bullpen woes.

Dylan Rockford expects the Royals to have a strong bounce-back effort at home after an uninspiring series against Cleveland, emphasizing that they're generally stronger at home. He mentioned Seth Lugo was decent against Cleveland, but Baltimore's Dean Kremer showed vulnerability early (five earned runs in his first start against Toronto). He further pointed out the Orioles have offensive capability but have struggled generating timely hits to capitalize on base runners. Given these factors, Rockford believes Kansas City will rebound offensively and recommends backing the Royals along with betting the over total runs at 8.5.

Dylan Rockford advised strongly betting on Justin Verlander to surpass his strikeout total against Seattle, recommending laddering up to eight strikeouts. Verlander historically dominates the Mariners with a 22-10 career record, a 2.98 ERA, and approximately seven strikeouts per start against them. Given Seattle's consistent struggles to generate offense—scoring two or fewer runs in four of their seven games—Verlander's matchup is favorable. Rockford also supports betting on the Giants moneyline, citing their impressive recent form and overall team consistency.

Despite Mets' recent offensive struggles, Dylan Rockford expects the team to finally perform well offensively against Toronto. He acknowledged the Mets inconsistency thus far—hitting under .200—but cited confidence specifically in Juan Soto leading a bounce-back series. Though Rockford shared positive views towards Kevin Gausman for Toronto, Soto's potential big series is the key factor in predicting Mets success and recommending them as a betting play, combined with his recommendation of the full game under eight runs.

Dylan Rockford recommends betting the Yankees' team total over against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Despite being cautious about Yankees starter Max Fried, Rockford primarily targeted the Pirates bullpen, characterizing them as unreliable and apt to surrender plenty of late runs. He argued Mitch Keller could offer some resistance early, but once out of the game, Pittsburgh's bullpen would likely yield runs, ensuring Yankees team total over was a strong betting value.

Dylan Rockford emphasizes the over 7.5 runs between the Brewers and Reds, expecting offensive production given pitching concerns. He noted that his own statistical projections have the total around 8.4 runs, significantly higher than the available line. Rockford specifically identified Nestor Cortes' extreme struggles in his initial outing as a major factor driving this over play. While he did recognize the Reds' poor early results against lefties, he nonetheless believes their offense is capable and due to rebound after being shut out recently. Additionally, Rockford cited Milwaukee's improving offense as a sign this total may close significantly higher, solidifying confidence in betting the over despite its slight juice at minus 128.

Dylan Rockford is extremely bullish on Arizona at an alternate run line of minus 1.5 at plus 145 odds against the Yankees. He backed this recommendation by underscoring Merrill Kelly's sharp pitching in his first outing against the Cubs, while juxtaposing it with Carrasco's disastrous relief outing against Milwaukee, allowing three runs in two innings. Rockford's numbers demonstrated Arizona should actually be a favored team around minus 125 in this scenario due to a definitive pitching and bullpen edge. He believes Kelly will continue dominating against a Yankees lineup that is currently shaky, further citing Arizona's strong bullpen and balanced offensive profile. Rockford sees significant betting value on Arizona covering the spread and winning comfortably, ultimately selecting this alternate run line as his dog of the day.

Dylan Rockford strongly prefers backing the Twins first-five innings specifically due to pitcher Joe Ryan, who looked excellent in his initial outing despite minimal run support. He argues that facing the slumping Astros lineup—offensively weak and losers of their past games—is an optimal setup for Ryan to dominate early. With clear concerns over both team's shaky bullpens, Rockford feels avoiding late-game unpredictability and centering bets around Minnesota's edge in starting pitching through the first five innings offers the best betting angle.

Dylan Rockford likes betting Phillies on the run line (-1.5) at -108 odds, suggesting Colorado's offense and especially their incendiary bullpen—currently the worst in the league with a staggering 10.80 ERA—is vastly overmatched by Philadelphia's strong lineup. While acknowledging Antonio Senzatela’s solid first start against Tampa Bay, he expects Philly's offense, significantly better than the Rays’, to wear down the Rockies over a full nine innings. He also mentions Phillies team total over (around 4.5) as another viable option, indicating plenty of scoring opportunities against Colorado's historically awful bullpen performance thus far.

Dylan Rockford endorses betting the Dodgers run line against Atlanta, emphasizing the Braves' poor early-season form (winless through three games). He supports Scott's angle of fading teams coming off Sunday Night Baseball, especially against a team as dominant as the Dodgers featuring Tyler Glasnow. While praising Holmes for his bullpen performance, Dylan trusts Glasnow to neutralize Atlanta's struggling bats. With the Dodgers in peak form and still offering plus money value at -1.5 runs, Dylan advocates confidently betting Los Angeles rather than speculating a turnaround game for the currently struggling Braves.

Dylan Rockford strongly supports Astros (-120) versus the Giants, stating Houston should be significantly bigger favorites—estimating closer to -140. He highlights the Astros' impressive performance against a strong Mets lineup, whereas the Giants barely beat a poor Reds bullpen. Dylan explicitly argues the short line doesn't reflect Houston's superior lineup, reliable bullpen, and starter Ronel Blanco's consistently favorable home performances. Given these matchup advantages, Dylan confidently recommends betting on the Astros to secure a home victory.

Dylan Rockford sees Detroit Tigers with young starter Jackson Jobe as strong underdog betting value around even money against Seattle's Emerson Hancock. Dylan highlighted excitement about Jobe, considering him a sleeper candidate for Rookie of the Year, and expects a low-scoring matchup against the struggling Mariners offense. He cited Seattle's ongoing offensive woes, noting their lineup batting just .174 to begin the year and lacking offseason improvements. He doesn't trust Hancock to garner adequate run support in a pitcher-friendly game script, supporting a Tigers win largely backed by Jobe's upside and Seattle's offensive struggles.

Dylan Rockford considers Houston significantly undervalued at around -120 against the Giants. He projected the Astros should be closer to -160 favorites, pointing out Ronel Blanco's solid home performances and Houston's effective bullpen showing against the Mets lineup, which he views as superior to San Francisco. He doesn't trust Giants starter Jordan Hicks, who sports a 5.79 ERA against Houston historically, with the Astros lineup hitting .265 against him last season. Dylan emphasizes that despite Hicks' solid stuff, his inability to pitch deep into games strains San Francisco's uncertain bullpen, creating further advantage for the Astros.

Dylan Rockford strongly recommends the Cardinals money line at approximately -130, seeing it undervalued based on his projected fair price around -155. He points out St. Louis's potent early-season offense, averaging around six and a half runs per game at home, contrasting that to the Angels lackluster scoring against Chicago. Dylan also expressed wariness about the Angels' overall offensive struggles, deciding to keep backing the profitable Cardinals until Los Angeles proves they can effectively generate consistent offense. He firmly supports a Cardinals wager given their current momentum and substantial pitching matchup advantage.

Dylan Rockford is backing the Rangers money line at -116 against the Reds, highlighting the clear bullpen advantage for Texas, who impressed against a potent Red Sox offense previously. He specifically trusts Kumar Rocker, noting Rocker's limited MLB innings have been solid with no outings allowing more than three runs and a ground-ball tendency limiting hard contact. Conversely, Dylan distrusts the Reds' bullpen significantly after their multiple blown games against the Giants. With a better bullpen and promising pitching from Rocker, Dylan confidently advises taking the Rangers in this matchup.

Dylan Rockford is strongly fading his own team, the Mets, citing they're significantly overpriced at around -165 against Miami. Dylan made his own number closer to around -135 and emphasized the Mets' poor offensive performance in their series against Houston. He highlighted the Marlins' success offensively in their opening series against the Pirates, despite Pittsburgh's struggles. David Peterson historically struggles against the Marlins, who bat .350 against him, making this matchup unfavorable for the Mets' starter. He acknowledged positives like Juan Soto's bat and bullpen stability but definitively advised bettors to grab the Marlins' money line value at +145.

Dylan Rockford recommends playing the Phillies team total over against Colorado, highlighting several offensive advantages. Despite being shut out on Sunday, the Phillies offense averaged roughly six runs per game in their series. Rockford emphasizes favorable hitting conditions forecasted in Philadelphia, 78 degrees and strong winds blowing out to center field, enhancing potential scoring. He strongly suggests fading Rockies pitcher German Marquez, who struggles away from Coors Field and remains a pitching liability after injuries last season. Philadelphia notably hits .262 against right-handed pitching early this season, further supporting Dylan's expectation of considerable runs. Consequently, Rockford confidently targets Philadelphia’s team total over for Monday's game.

Dylan Rockford recommended targeting the Over 8.5 runs in Monday's game between the Royals and Brewers, emphasizing that both starting pitchers, Kris Bubic and Tyler Alexander, aren't reliable. He specifically highlighted the Brewers' demoralizing sweep at the hands of the Yankees, but believes returning home will help Milwaukee's lineup regain confidence. He expects both offenses to capitalize on subpar pitching performances, projecting plenty of runs due to shaky bullpens as well. Dylan set his own total at 8.8, indicating value at even money odds on the over 8.5 line currently available.