Dylan Rockford made the Astros run-line (–1.5 at +175) his favorite under-dog play for Thursday’s Rays–Astros matchup. Rockford called Tampa starter Shane Baz a full-fade right now, noting Baz has surrendered at least one homer in eight of ten outings and owns a 9.72 ERA in May with a 13.3 % walk rate. He expects Houston’s deep right-hand–heavy lineup—Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman—to punish Baz early and then tack on against a Rays bullpen that has logged the 5th-most innings this month. On the other side, Rockford acknowledged Ronel “Gusto” Blanco is inconsistent but trusts him more than Baz and pointed to Houston’s top-3 defensive efficiency as protection if Blanco pitches to contact. With Minute Maid’s roof likely closed (the ball carries better), he projected a 6-3 type game and recommended any plus-money run-line price down to +160.

Dylan Rockford attacked Emerson Hancock directly, recommending Nationals team total Over 3.5 (–115) and a sprinkle on the first-five Over 4. Hancock has been shelled in Seattle—7, 6, and 3 earned runs in his three home outings—and owns a 46% hard-hit rate plus 10.8% walk rate versus left-handed bats. Washington profiles well: the Nats produce a .321 wOBA against righties compared to .286 vs southpaws, and they have the league’s fourth-lowest strikeout rate, a problem for Hancock’s limited swing-and-miss arsenal. Rockford added that T-Mobile Park’s marine layer dissipates in warmer late-May weather, giving the ball a bit more carry. He expects Washington to scratch four or five by the seventh inning.

Dylan Rockford prefers isolating the shaky starters and played Over 4 (first five innings). He broke down May splits: Ronel Blanco 9.72 ERA, nine earned in eight innings with a 16% BB-rate; Shane Baz 7.82 ERA, 22 earned in 25 IP and 13 walks. Both arms are allowing .400+ wOBA the first two times through the order. Houston bats .282 and scores 4.7 runs per game at home, while Tampa’s offense has jumped to a 110 wRC+ over the last two weeks. Given that both bullpens rank top-8 in ERA, Rockford wants no part of the late innings and expects 5-6 runs by the end of the fifth frame.

Dylan Rockford’s model produced a 9.0 total and he grabbed Over 8.5 at –122 before the market adjusted. Oakland overs have cashed in four of five thanks to a rotation posting a 5.89 ERA in May and a bullpen that ranks 28th in WPA. Thursday lines up as a pure bullpen game after Jacob Lopez’s one-inning openers, exposing that soft middle relief. Rockford never trusts Jose Berrios either, pointing to his 46% hard-hit rate and 1.27 HR/9. Toronto scores a full run more at Rogers Centre (4.4 R/G home vs 3.4 road), while Oakland’s bats get a park upgrade and have quietly posted a .333 BABIP the last week. Rockford expects both clubs to reach at least four runs.

Dylan Rockford projected another Phillies victory in Game 2, recommending both the money line (–105) and the same Under 7.5 Reichel liked. Rockford’s model made the total 6.6 and Philadelphia –120 behind Zach Wheeler’s 32% CSW rate and 0.97 WHIP at home. He stressed the macro trend: Phillies have won nine of ten overall and are an MLB-best 18-2 straight-up in their park, while Atlanta is 8-13 in May and averaging just 3.8 runs per game during that span. Rockford added that Wheeler has held current Braves hitters to a .210 xBA across 185 career plate appearances, and Chris Sale’s new slider-heavy approach (41% usage) should neutralize Philadelphia’s left-handed pop, pushing the total down.

Dylan Rockford endorsed attacking Philadelphia’s offense directly instead of laying heavy money-line juice. Rockford highlighted Citizens Bank Park splits—Phillies slash .271/.343/.441 at home while scoring 5.16 runs per game. AJ Smith-Shawver has been hammered on the road (opponents .312 AVG, 1.72 WHIP) and carries a 43.1% hard-hit rate that profiles poorly in this park. Atlanta’s tired relief corps (five different relievers used Wednesday) sets up extra plate appearances against middle relievers posting a combined 4.58 ERA. Rockford prefers Philly’s team total Over 4.5 (priced –120) but is also comfortable laddering to 5+ at plus money, calling it his favorite derivative for the matinee.

Rockford likes Los Angeles in the first five and is betting the Angels’ team total over 4.5 thanks to Clark Schmidt’s road blow-ups. Schmidt carries a ghastly 6.75 ERA away from Yankee Stadium, while his 1.54 WHIP leads to constant traffic. Rockford pointed out that every Yusei Kikuchi start has flown over the closing total, so he is comfortable playing offense on both sides but prefers isolating the Halos because they own a .760 home OPS and should bat nine full innings as the underdog. His model spit out 5.3 projected runs for L.A. against Schmidt plus New York’s middle relief.

Rockford labeled Kansas City a live dog and made them –140 favorites against Hunter Greene. Rookie Noah Cameron has yielded just two runs total across his first three MLB starts (0.92 ERA) and owns a 31% whiff rate on a deceptive changeup that neutralizes right-handed hitters. The Reds are hitting only .213 versus left-handed pitching, and Greene’s road ERA is nearly a run higher (4.38) than at Great American Ballpark. With the Royals bullpen ranking fifth in ERA and Greene failing to complete five innings in back-to-back starts, Rockford sees Kansas City’s pitching edge carrying the day.

Dylan Rockford recommended the Phillies team total over (projecting 5+ runs) against rookie AJ Smith-Shawver. The teenager was torched for six runs by Washington in his last road start and now faces a Philadelphia offense hitting .271 and scoring 5.16 runs per game at Citizens Bank Park. Rockford also noted Atlanta’s recent slump—losers of four of five with a taxed bullpen—reducing the likelihood of late lockdown relief. Given Smith-Shawver’s 11.3% walk rate and Philadelphia’s league-leading chase discipline, Rockford expects plenty of traffic and multiple crooked innings.

Rockford grabbed the Cardinals at even money, calling it a mis-price. Miles Mikolas owns a 2.01 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over four May starts, while Kade Povich sports a ghastly 6.75 ERA at Camden Yards and has lost six of his last eight outings. Rockford’s model installed St. Louis as a –125 favorite thanks to the Cards’ superior bullpen (3.42 ERA in May) and top-10 wRC+ versus lefties. He sees St. Louis holding edges in starter form, relief pitching, and lineup depth, making the plus-price irresistible.

Dylan Rockford advised playing the Diamondbacks first-five team total under because he expects Paul Skenes to mow through Arizona’s lineup. Skenes has yet to surrender more than two runs in any road start this season, and opponents are batting below .200 away from PNC Park against him. Rockford’s model made Pittsburgh a –120 favorite despite the market opening with the Pirates as short dogs, an indication of Skenes’ dominance. He is simultaneously fading Zac Gallen, noting Gallen’s 6-plus home ERA and a 1-4 record at Chase Field, but prefers isolating Arizona’s bats rather than backing a shaky Pittsburgh offense. With Skenes carrying a 34.7% strike-out rate on the road and Arizona ranking only 19th in wRC+ versus high-velocity righties, Rockford doubts the Snakes score more than a single run through five.

Dylan Rockford wants nothing to do with a straight-up –350 moneyline and instead laid the alt run line (-2.5) or attacked Chicago’s team total. His logic is simple: Wrigley has been a launching pad for this lineup—5.79 runs per game at home, second-best in MLB—and rookie Tanner Gordon now has to survive it in only his third career start. Rockford noted Colorado’s pitching hemorrhages 5.5 runs per game on the road and is an abysmal 1-15 straight-up vs left-handed starters, while the Cubs cash the run-line at a 54% clip (28-24) and regularly win by margin. With Matthew Boyd serviceable and the Rockies offense ranking bottom-five in road OPS, he projects a 6-1 type final and is comfortable pushing the handicap to –2.5 or simply betting Chicago’s team total over 4.5.

Rockford played the Astros first-five team total under, banking on Luis Severino’s surprising road form. The former Yankee has a 0.72 ERA in four road starts for Oakland and consistently works into the sixth inning. Lance McCullers Jr. has been inconsistent at Minute Maid, and Rockford’s model showed Houston should be –130 rather than the –150 posted. Because he can’t trust the punch-less A’s offense to cash a side, he expects Severino to suppress the Astros to one run or fewer through five.

Dylan Rockford prefers isolating Milwaukee in the first five innings, removing bullpen variance. He underscored Freddy Peralta’s pristine home splits—3-0 record, 0.75 ERA, opponents batting .186—and the Brewers being 4-0 in his home starts. Peralta has surrendered just one run across his last 16 home innings. Conversely, Rockford distrusts Brayan Bello’s inconsistency and points to Boston’s punch-less lineup that has produced only four runs over the past three games. He expects Milwaukee to be leading at the midpoint more often than not.

Dylan Rockford played the White Sox first-five team total under (1.5). He pointed to Griffin Canning’s Citi Field dominance—no more than one run allowed in four of five home starts—and Chicago’s league-worst road splits: 2.8 runs per game and a .218 average versus right-handers. Given those numbers, Rockford doubts the Sox scratch out more than a single early run.

Dylan Rockford hammered the first-five innings under in Twins–Rays, projecting a sluggish start from both clubs. He noted Pablo Lopez has yielded only two total runs across his last 17 road innings while holding a 0.97 WHIP in that span. On the other side, Drew Rasmussen has strung together back-to-back six-scoreless outings and sports a 2.50 ERA at Tropicana Field. Rockford added that Minnesota averages just 3.59 runs per game away from Target Field and Tampa’s lineup has also been middling of late. With both bullpens ranked inside the top-10, his model spat out a 7.6 full-game total, making the first-five under his preferred play.

Dylan Rockford played Detroit –115 behind rookie Jackson Jobe, who owns a 2.61 ERA at home. He noted the Giants’ road struggles (.208 team average) and that they are 1-3 in Landon Rupp’s last four road starts, with Rupp giving up 2+ runs in six of seven away. Rockford believes Detroit is undervalued in this matchup.

Rockford is fading Sandy Alcantara and grabbing the Padres –1.5. The former Cy Young winner has imploded, saddled with a 7.71 ERA in May while Miami has dropped seven straight Alcantara starts. He has allowed at least four earned runs in every road outing this season and sports a .299 opponents’ average away from loanDepot Park. San Diego’s lineup is rounding into form and owns a .764 OPS versus right-handed pitching, a full 73 points higher than its mark against lefties. Given Alcantara’s 16% barrel rate over his last three turns and San Diego’s 5.2 runs per game at Petco against righties, Rockford expects the Padres to cover the run line rather than pay the steep moneyline tax.

Dylan Rockford agreed on the side but highlighted the Yankees team-total over as his favourite wager. New York averages 5.2 runs per road game and now faces Jose Katchanowicz, whose 11.6% walk rate and 5.03 ERA make him a prime blow-up candidate. Rockford noted Katchanowicz walked five A’s last time out and should probably be in Triple-A. The situation worsens once the Angels’ bullpen—owning the league’s worst ERA and 14 blown leads—takes over. With Ryan Yarbrough keeping the Yankees in a stress-free position (2.59 road ERA) Rockford expects Aaron Judge and company to reach five runs by the seventh inning and ultimately win by multiple tallies. He projected a 7-3 score and felt anything 4.5 or lower on the Yankees team total was worth firing.

Rockford argued Arizona should be no higher than –155, yet shops are dealing –180/–185. He prefers Pittsburgh +0.5 in the first five, highlighting Andrew Heaney’s dominant road profile (2.45 ERA, .156 BAA) against Ryne Nelson’s 4.60 ERA, poor command and lack of length. The snakes’ bullpen grades bottom-five, another reason to avoid full-game vig. Rockford’s model spits out a total of 8.9, so he also leans under 9.5 given Heaney’s swing-and-miss stuff and the Pirates offense still being middling despite a better weekend. “Price is insane—Bucs are live,” he said, expecting at worst a coin-flip through five innings.

Calling the Twins the better club "across the board," Rockford grabbed Minnesota +105 and said they should actually be –120. He cited Chris Paddack’s recent surge (three ER total over his last three starts) versus Zack Littell’s ugly Trop splits (0-3, 4.33 ERA, elevated HR rate). Tampa’s offense is punching below its weight at home—just 3.85 runs per game—while Minnesota brings a top-five bullpen and, in Rockford’s opinion, the superior lineup. With Littell allowing two-plus runs in six straight and the Rays scuffling for power, he declared, “wrong team is favored, give me the Twins.”

Rockford is backing the Guardians at +160, calling the Dodgers overpriced off Sunday-night baseball and a 2–3 a.m. arrival in Cleveland. He downgraded Los Angeles’ bats in this sleep-deprived spot (team hitting .246 on the road) and noted Gavin Williams has surrendered more than two runs only once in his last six outings. The Guardians have quietly gone 14-8 straight-up at Progressive Field and just took three of four from Detroit. Rockford priced LA at –150, projected the total at 8.1 (lean over 7.5) and warned that closer Tanner Scott has been a “mess” for the Dodgers lately. Value, he insists, sits squarely with Cleveland.

Dylan Rockford said Kansas City’s money-line is a steal, noting he made the Royals –140 yet the market is still hanging plus money. He trusts Michael Lorenzen’s Jekyll-and-Hyde splits (19 home innings, 2 ER) and pointed out every one of his Kauffman starts has stayed under the posted total. With 13 mph winds blowing straight in and Cincinnati’s bullpen coming off a weekend meltdown, Rockford wants no part of full-game Reds exposure. He suggested pairing Royals ML with the first-five under and even sprinkled an over 17.5 outs prop on Nick Martinez because the Reds “burned everybody” when their pen imploded. “Dead under game, Royals should be favored,” he concluded.

Dylan Rockford also laid –120 with St. Louis, explaining his numbers grade the Cards at –140. He noted the Orioles have lost every single start that Charlie Morton (the probable per MLB.com) has made since signing, and whichever arm Baltimore throws will be backed by a bottom-five relief corps. Rockford highlighted the Cardinals’ red-hot bats (4.73 runs per road game over the last three weeks) and Fedde allowing only two earned runs across his past 20⅔ road innings. Baltimore’s lineup could be shorthanded as Adley Rutschman exited Sunday early with injury, further tilting the matchup toward St. Louis.

Dylan Rockford preferred isolating Chicago’s offense by betting the Cubs’ team total OVER, even with a 10 mph wind blowing in at Wrigley. He made Chicago a –300 favorite, citing Palmquist’s brutal game logs (5 ER, then 6 ER) and the Cubs’ elite .274 average versus left-handers. Chicago already averages almost six runs per home game, and Rockford expects 5–7 runs again. He avoided the full-game over because Colorado owns the league’s worst road offense (2.44 R/G) and the wind could suppress their limited pop, but he’s confident the Cubs clear their own number.

Dylan Rockford passed on the side but pounded Milwaukee’s team total UNDER (projected 3.5–4.0). He pointed out Crochet hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any road start this season and the Brewers average just 3.76 runs per game at American Family Field while hitting .219 at home overall. The splits get even uglier against lefties (.222). Given that profile, Rockford does not believe Milwaukee can crack three runs, making the team-total under the most attractive angle on the board.

Dylan Rockford disagreed with his co-host and grabbed Detroit –110, explaining his model made the Tigers a –150 favorite. He hung his hat on Detroit’s elite 17-8 straight-up record at Comerica and the fact they average 4.8 runs per game at home, versus the Giants’ .212 road batting average and near-league-average 0.500 road record. While conceding Birdsong’s strong early numbers, Rockford expects Montero to get enough run support and projects a slightly higher-scoring environment (he set the total at 8.8 runs). He labeled the current price a clear value spot to “take the Tigers here.”

With lines still off the board, Rockford is already eyeing an over if the total opens below 9. Expected starters are left-handed bulk reliever Brant Hunter for Detroit (turning the game into a bullpen day) and Andre Pallante for St. Louis. Pallante has allowed 2-plus runs in 8 of 9 starts, and Detroit’s road offense is lively at 5.42 runs per game. Forecasts call for 15-mph wind blowing out to center at Busch Stadium. Rockford’s projection came to 8.9 runs, so he plans to fire on the first-five or full-game over as long as books hang anything in the 8–8.5 range.

Dylan Rockford said the Cubs-Marlins total is mispriced at 8.5 and should be closer to 9. He leaned over because both rookie starters are leaking runs—Cade Horton has surrendered three earned in each of his first two MLB outings (both games finished in double-digit scoring), while Max Meyer has been shelled for 5-plus runs in three of his last four turns. Rockford added that loanDepot Park has quietly become an over machine: Miami home games are 69-33 to the over since the start of 2024, and 15-11 to the over this season. With both clubs trending toward offense (Chicago 6-4 last 10, Miami winners of 4 of 5), he branded the over 8.5 a ‘must-bet’ as long as the line stays below 9.

Dylan Rockford said the sharpest angle in Rangers-Yankees is the first-five innings under. He trusts Jacob deGrom’s calmer, ‘dial-it-back’ approach that has produced a 1.43 ERA over his last three outings and a 3.22 lifetime ERA against New York. Opposing him is soft-tossing lefty Ryan Yarbrough, and Rockford noted Texas is now 0-8-3 to the F5 under against southpaws this season. The Yankees have cashed the first-five under 55 percent of the time overall, so both club trends line up. With deGrom pounding the zone while Yarbrough eats innings at 86 mph, Rockford expects a low-scoring start and will bet the F5 under as long as books open 4.5 or higher. He still leans Rangers on the full-game moneyline but called the total the stronger edge.

For his nightly home-run dart, Dylan Rockford called his shot with Kyle Schwarber to leave the yard at altitude. Rockford pointed out that the Phillies are heading to Coors Field—still the most homer-friendly park in baseball with its 1.25 HR park factor—against a Rockies pitching staff he labeled “the worst.” Rookie left-hander Carson Palmquist was torched for five earned in four innings during his MLB debut, and Colorado’s bullpen owns the league’s worst ERA. Schwarber just launched career homer No. 300 last week and is seeing beach balls right now. With the thin air, a struggling rookie, and a bullpen allowing 1.7 HR/9 to left-handed hitters, Rockford expects a classic Schwarber moon-shot and will be betting his HR prop as long as books hang anything +350 or better.

Dylan Rockford said the only way to play Wednesday’s finale in Los Angeles is to grab the Diamondbacks at the current +110 (or wait for an even juicier number if late Dodger money shows). He power-rated the game Dodgers –125, so anything north of that is value on Arizona. Rockford trusts Corbin Burnes, who has strung together 13 straight scoreless innings with 15 strikeouts and held L.A. to seven shutout frames in their meeting two weeks ago. Meanwhile Dustin May’s 4.43 ERA is backed by four losses in his last five starts, and the Dodgers are dealing with several lineup injuries. Los Angeles has dropped four straight overall, while the Snakes are 13-9 on the road and averaging roughly 5.4 runs per game away from Chase Field. With the better current form, the stronger starter, and a mis-priced line, Rockford labeled Arizona a clear plus-money play.

Rockford sees value in the red-hot Angels at +140 in Oakland. L.A. just shocked everyone by sweeping the Dodgers and rides a four-game win streak, while the Athletics have cratered to 2-8 over their last ten and own an ugly 10-19 record at the Coliseum. Jack Kicanovich has quietly strung together back-to-back quality starts (12.2 IP, 2 ER) despite occasional walk issues, and J.P. Sears is merely serviceable with a 3.31 ERA but a bare-bones 1.10 WHIP. Both bullpens rank bottom-five in FIP, so Rockford wants the plus-money side of a likely shoot-out rather than laying –160 with a slumping home team. He will sprinkle the moneyline now and consider an in-game hedge if the Angels grab an early lead.

Rockford advised isolating the Phillies offense at Coors by betting their team total over 5.5 (or anything 6 or lower). Rookie lefty Carson Palmquist was torched for five earned in four innings with zero strikeouts in his MLB debut, and Colorado has now dropped five straight by two-plus runs. Philadelphia rakes southpaws (.279 AVG) and just saw Kyle Schwarber belt his 300th career homer. Taijuan Walker, meanwhile, owns a surprising 2.09 ERA and 4-1 record in five career starts at altitude, so Rockford prefers not to rely on the full-game over. Given the Rockies’ worst-in-baseball bullpen and lingering thin air, he expects Philly to push six to eight runs and is willing to ladder alternate run lines (–2.5) for extra plus-money.

Rockford made Toronto a –130 favorite with Kevin Gausman on the mound and will fire on the Blue Jays if the market re-opens lighter than that. He admitted Gausman’s form has been volatile (six scoreless vs Cleveland but six earned in each of his last two) yet trusts the right-hander at Rogers Centre where he owns a 3.80 ERA. San Diego counters with Randy Vasquez, who has allowed only four earned in his last 17 innings but still carries shaky road splits and a history of control problems. The bigger catalyst is a punch-less Padres lineup that managed just three total runs in a weekend sweep by Seattle and now averages 3.9 per game. Rockford power-rated the total at 8.4, so he will also grab an under if books hang 8.5 or 9, but the primary play is Toronto moneyline up to –130.

Rockford called Texas a mispriced underdog and made the Rangers –130 behind a rejuvenated Jacob deGrom, who hasn’t allowed more than two runs in six consecutive starts. New York is batting only .248 at Yankee Stadium, and Ryan Yarbrough’s soft-toss arsenal (two starts, eight relief outings) does little to scare a Rangers lineup that suddenly woke up after firing its hitting coach. Rockford trusts Texas’s overall pitching staff more than New York’s current mix, likes deGrom’s 3.22 career ERA versus the Yankees, and expects the Rangers to carry their recent form into the Bronx. He recommended taking the small plus price before the market flips.

Rockford said the only viable angle in Mets-Red Sox is a Mets team-total under (3.0–4.5, depending on what books hang). New York has failed to score more than four runs in over a week, and both Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto remain ice-cold. Garrett Crochet, meanwhile, has not allowed more than two earned in any of his last four Fenway starts and benefits from stiff winds projected to blow in again on Wednesday. Rockford’s own model came out to 8.1 on the full-game total, so rather than sweat both clubs he is isolating the toothless Mets offense and betting it stays quiet against a surging left-hander.

Dylan Rockford advised laying whatever price the books post on San Francisco and even taking the run line because Logan Webb is back on the Oracle Park mound. Rockford reminded listeners that Webb owns a microscopic 0.64 ERA at home this season—just two earned runs across four starts—with the Giants 3-1 in those outings. He added that San Francisco’s lineup is batting .256 in its own park and should feast on Kansas City’s probable starter, minor-league call-up Lenny Avila (or even Cole Ragans if the Royals shuffle plans). Rockford sees no reliable offense on the visiting side and projected the Giants north of –200, calling any cheaper number a gift.

Dylan Rockford endorsed Seattle at the current ‑142 price and would play them to roughly ‑160. Rookie Logan Evans has allowed just one run in 11 road innings against stronger lineups (Padres, Rangers), while the Mariners have won four straight and hit better on the road than at T-Mobile. White Sox rookie Shane Smith is talented (2.05 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) but gets no support—Chicago is 1-7 in his decisions and ranks near the bottom in run production. Rockford trusts Seattle’s form, offense, and bullpen over nine full innings and prefers the full-game moneyline instead of first-five.

Rockford urged bettors to keep fading Baltimore and grab Milwaukee at anything up to ‑140. The Orioles have cratered, losing 15 of their last 17 and averaging only 3.26 runs per road game—second worst in MLB behind Colorado. Meanwhile the Brewers are a respectable 14-9 straight-up at American Family Field and send Chad Patrick, who has been ‘okay’ but serviceable, to the mound. Rockford’s model made Milwaukee a ‑140 favorite, so the widely available ‑120/-125 represents value. Given Baltimore’s freefall and Patrick’s competence, he labeled the Brewers moneyline a straightforward play until the O’s show life.

Dylan Rockford recommended laying up to -150 on the Twins—or taking the first-five run line—because Joe Ryan has been dominant. Ryan has surrendered just two earned runs in 18 May innings with a 24-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and the Twins are 9-1 in their last ten contests. Conversely, Tanner Bibee owns a 6.49 ERA on the road, coughing up 19 runs in 26 away frames while opponents hit .298. Rockford stressed Minnesota's top-five bullpen and Cleveland's recent offensive lull as additional factors. Given the stark pitching mismatch and the Twins' current heater, he views Minnesota as a strong play.

Dylan Rockford said bettors should grab the Astros moneyline at anything shorter than -150 behind Hunter Brown. Rockford highlighted Brown's 1.43 ERA and 0.83 WHIP over his last three starts, including eight scoreless innings and nine strikeouts in a duel with Jacob deGrom. He contrasted that with Taj Bradley's volatility, noting Bradley was tagged for five earned at Miami and sits at a 4.97 season ERA. Rockford also pointed to Tampa Bay's 11-18 home record and Houston's top-10 wRC+ lineup as further edges. With the clear starting-pitching advantage and the Rays' struggles at Tropicana, he labeled Houston a buy at the current -138 to -140 price.

Dylan Rockford leaned to the over in the Aaron Nola–Sonny Gray nightcap, citing Citizens Bank Park’s friendly dimensions and a Phillies bullpen ranked bottom-10 in ERA. Philadelphia averages 5.3 runs per home game, and Rockford still questions Nola’s consistency despite solid surface stats. The Cardinals have quietly caught fire at the plate, hitting right-handers at a .261 clip and climbing above .500 in June. With both offenses trending up and only one reliable pen between them, he projected 9.2 runs and would bet over 8.5.

Dylan Rockford played the first-five under between Oakland and Los Angeles. His model produced 7.9 runs for the full game, and he prefers the F5 because the A’s bullpen is bottom-five. Yoshinobu Yamamoto owns a 1.80 ERA and 0.88 WHIP outside his lone hiccup, while rookie Gunnar Hoglund has allowed just three runs over 11 MLB innings, sporting stellar walk and home-run suppression rates. Rockford expects both pitchers to cruise through the first trip or two in the order and would bet F5 under 4.5 at –115 or better.

Rockford ignored the juice on Chicago and took Over 8, projecting 8.4 runs. Taillon has allowed two or more earned in six of eight outings, and Wrigley overs are 13-7. The Cubs destroy left-handed pitching, a bad recipe for debuting southpaw Ryan Weathers, and both bullpens reside in MLB’s bottom ten. Rockford expects Miami’s improving lineup to contribute, but sees Chicago clearing its team-total on the way to a 6-4 style finish. He recommended a Cubs team-total over for bettors squeamish about the full-game number.

Rockford hammered Under 9 (would play 8.5), pricing the game at 8.2. Atlanta has cashed nine straight unders and sits 8-2 to the under in its last ten contests, averaging only 3.4 runs across the previous five. The Braves remain mediocre against left-handed pitching, giving Mitchell Parker a fighting chance even though Rockford is no fan of the rookie. Parker’s starts are 4-2 to the under, and Bryce Elder rarely implodes while keeping the ball on the ground. With both clubs’ recent offensive malaise, he expects another low-scoring night at Truist Park.

Dylan Rockford went the other way, grabbing Under 9 (would still play 8.5) and projecting only 8.5 runs. Chicago is batting a putrid .217 versus lefties and has topped four runs just once in the past week; the under has cashed in four of the club’s last five. Cincinnati has quietly become an under squad—7-3 to the under in its last 10—thanks to mediocre contact quality. Rockford views Lodolo’s ugly home ERA as a one-start blip and expects a 5-1 or 5-2 type result, especially with both teams’ middle-of-the-order bats scuffling.