Ed Feng laid the 49ers ‑3.5, explaining that his model—built on margin of victory and passing success rate adjusted for opponent strength—makes San Francisco a 6.3-point favorite. Despite early-season absences for Brock Purdy, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk, the 49ers are 3-0 with every win by one score. Underlying efficiency still ranks them third in the NFL after three weeks. With Purdy set to play, Feng sees Jacksonville as a merely average side and believes the current number undervalues San Francisco’s true strength.

Ed Feng bet Baker Mayfield over 0.5 interceptions at ‑105. Mayfield, who tied for the league lead in picks last season alongside Kirk Cousins, has yet to throw one in 2025, a streak Feng deemed unsustainable. His interception model factors in passes defended and QB hits; Mayfield has already produced 12 such turnover-worthy plays, and the model gives a 54.9% probability he throws at least one pick versus Philadelphia. Feng concluded the price is too cheap given the underlying risk baked into Mayfield’s drop-back profile.

Ed Feng laid ‑8.5 with Denver, calling Cam Ward’s first NFL start at altitude a worst-case scenario against a Broncos defense that finished elite last season. Denver fortified an already loaded secondary by drafting corner Jahdae Barron in Round 1, and although edge rushers Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper may not match last year’s 28 combined sacks, Feng still projects consistent pressure. His model makes the game Denver ‑10.3, giving more than a 1.5-point cushion against the market. Feng acknowledged he rarely backs big favorites but trusts the defensive mismatch and Ward’s inexperience at Mile High.