Eric Lindquist highlighted Logan O'Hoppe as a strong candidate to hit a home run against the Rays and pitcher Zack Littell. Eric pointed out Littell's modest 20.4% strikeout rate, observing that he lacks the swing-and-miss capabilities to reliably neutralize power hitters. Despite O'Hoppe's elevated strikeout numbers (32.3%), Lindquist argued that Littell's inability to exploit that weakness positions O'Hoppe well to capitalize on his impressive early-season power metrics (831 expected slugging, 27.8-degree launch angle). The game taking place in the afternoon at Steinbrenner Field, rather than Tropicana, further helps power hitting conditions, making this a strong DFS and home run prop consideration.

Eric Lindquist recommended betting the Phillies against the Braves at plus-money odds, emphasizing a significant pitching advantage. He backed Phillies' starter Jesus Luzardo, citing a 165 expected batting average and elite 41.3% strikeout rate. He was bearish on Atlanta's performance against left-handed pitching early in the season, where they rank 25th (54 WRC+) against lefties. Conversely, the Phillies lineup has strong numbers (128 WRC+, sixth-best in MLB) against right-handed pitchers. Considering these factors, Eric believes the odds should be closer to even money rather than plus money for the Phillies, making it a solid value play.

Eric Lindquist singled out Chris Sale's over 6.5 strikeout prop, highlighting Sale's strong early-season form. While acknowledging the line was slightly inflated (between -150 and -160), Lindquist emphasized Sale's recent impressive performances and strikeout capability as reasons to track alternate lines or consider laddering his total. Lindquist also highlighted the pitcher duel scenario with Zack Wheeler on the opposing side, anticipating limited offense and highlighting the matchup as a potential pitcher's duel and must-watch game.

Eric Lindquist liked taking Pittsburgh Pirates on the first five innings moneyline (-140) due to Paul Skenes' strong start to the season and favorable pitching matchup against Sonny Gray, who has allowed a concerning 53.8% hard-hit rate. Skenes has impressive underlying metrics, including only a 20.7% hard-hit rate and a dominant 29.5% strikeout rate. Additionally, the absence of Cardinals catcher Ivan Herrera, who had been one of their best hitters early in the season, drastically weakens St. Louis' lineup. Lindquist expressed significant trust in Skenes at this price with key offensive pieces missing from St. Louis.

Eric Lindquist recommended backing the Chicago Cubs moneyline primarily due to Texas Rangers pitcher Patrick Corbin's significant and lasting struggles. Lindquist highlighted Corbin's poor recent seasons, featuring 5.62, 6.41, and 6.53 expected ERAs, respectively, in recent years, accompanied by consistently high hard-hit (over 44%) and low strikeout rates (15.7%) in previous campaigns. He firmly stated that given this extensive track record, betting against Corbin is straightforward value, even jokingly dismissing friend's beliefs in potential 'Cy Corbin' performances as highly unlikely at this stage in Corbin's career.

Eric Lindquist sees substantial upside in backing Mike Trout for a home run prop against reverse splits pitcher Shane Baz, who historically struggles against right-handed hitters, allowing significant power in these matchups. Despite Baz's strong strikeout numbers when healthy, Lindquist pointed out his tendency to permit power production to righties. Given the inviting stadium environment at Steinbrenner Field, featuring Yankee-like dimensions and favorable weather (warm, humid), Lindquist advised a quarter-unit wager on Trout at odds better than +275 as an appealing play.

Eric Lindquist identified both Logan O'Hoppe and Mike Trout as appealing home run prop picks against Rays pitcher Shane Baz, who has demonstrated reverse splits issues throughout his career, giving up significant power to right-handed hitters. Lindquist emphasized O'Hoppe's remarkable batted-ball profile, citing a 63.2% hard-hit rate, 477 xWOBA, and optimal 28-degree average launch angle making him well-positioned to capitalize against Baz. He advised wagering a quarter-unit on O'Hoppe at better than +300 odds, noting favorable stadium conditions at Steinbrenner Field (warm, humid weather, Yankees-like dimensions) as another factor enhancing the likelihood of home runs.

Eric Lindquist pointed out Andrew Benintendi as a promising target for a two-plus total bases prop against Guardians pitcher Ben Lively. Lindquist cited Lively's pronounced fly-ball tendencies against left-handed batters, which plays into Benintendi's strengths as a lefty hitter. Progressive Field was noted by Lindquist as a stadium that particularly favors left-handed power, enhancing the matchup's attractiveness even with some colder and windier weather conditions.

Eric Lindquist pointed to Kerry Carpenter as an attractive target for his total bases prop against Yankees pitcher Carlos Carrasco. Though Carrasco is someone he admires personally, Lindquist noted significant performance red flags including a 15.2% barrel rate allowed in early starts this year. Carpenter has been hitting well and Lindquist specifically highlighted Detroit's left-handed hitters including Carpenter as being in advantageous spots against Carrasco due to favorable splits and vulnerabilities Carrasco has shown thus far.

Eric Lindquist highlighted the value of betting Corbin Carroll's total bases props against Zach Eflin, noting major improvements by Carroll against left-handed pitching. Lindquist specified Carroll's 2024 improvement, evidenced by a .190 ISO against lefties, as a stark improvement from earlier struggles. Despite the potential for teams to use left-handed relievers against Arizona's left-handed batters, including Carroll, he argued this is less of an issue given Carroll's demonstrated capability to handle lefties effectively this season. Lindquist described Eflin as an overrated pitcher who lacks effective swing-and-miss pitches, suggesting Carroll and Diamondbacks hitters generally benefit from soft matchup opportunities here.

Eric Lindquist recommended betting the Texas Rangers on the first five innings money line, emphasizing the pitching advantage of Nathan Eovaldi over Justin Steele. Lindquist praised Eovaldi's outstanding start to 2025, highlighting his complete-game opening day performance and ongoing ability to eat innings efficiently. Conversely, he expressed concern about Steele's slow start and recent struggles, potentially impacted by adverse early-season weather conditions and challenging matchups. Lindquist mentioned prohibitive weather conditions at Wrigley Field, expecting a low-scoring, low-variance environment where Eovaldi's strong pitching performance would prove decisive early, making Texas first five innings money line at plus money an attractive wager.

Eric Lindquist discussed betting the Washington Nationals' first five innings line against the Dodgers. His reasoning relied heavily on Nationals pitcher MacKenzie Gore, whose strong opening day performance signaled a potential leap forward this season. Lindquist expressed familiarity and trust in Gore, mentioning past bets he made backing Gore at plus money last year. He also acknowledged Dodgers pitcher Dustin May was finally producing strikeouts, but emphasized the tactical advantage of taking Nationals' first five-inning line rather than risking exposure to the Dodgers' strong bullpen over nine innings.

Eric Lindquist expressed enthusiasm regarding Kodai Senga's strikeout potential against a Miami Marlins lineup prone to high strikeout rates. He explained that although Miami has shown periodic offensive strength with hitters like Griffin Conine and Matt Mervis, their collective contact issues (highlighted by a 41% strikeout rate for Mervis and elevated strikeout numbers for others in the lineup) would play right into Senga's high-K 'ghost forkball' pitch. Lindquist specifically called it one of his favorite pitches in MLB besides Shohei Ohtani's splitter, implying strong DFS appeal and potential betting volume on overs for Senga's strikeout props against the Marlins.

Eric Lindquist enthusiastically recommended betting the San Diego Padres money line against the Oakland Athletics. His analysis pinpointed the pitching mismatch involving Luis Severino and Joey Estes, identifying both as major weaknesses for Oakland. Lindquist praised Michael King, whom he labeled a 'stud,' giving San Diego a decisive pitching advantage. With Padres hitters like Jackson Merrill locked in and the lineup fully operational, Lindquist anticipated significant offensive production in Sacramento, the Oakland Athletics' temporary home park in the notoriously hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League environment. He confidently advised betting the Padres' money line straight up, discouraging parlays despite the moderately high juice around -135 to -140.

Eric Lindquist liked the value on two-plus total bases props involving Ben Rice. While acknowledging Rice's unsustainable 72.2% hard-hit rate and astronomical .815 expected slugging percentage in limited at-bats, Lindquist pointed out Rice benefits from his lineup positioning as a lefty hitting near the top of the Yankees' lineup. He explained that the spacious Comerica Park environment often suits hitters targeting doubles in the gap rather than home runs, making Rice and similar left-handed hitters such as Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm, and Trent Grisham intriguing bets for total bases and doubles props at plus-money prices.

Eric Lindquist strongly recommended steering clear of home run prop bets in the Yankees vs Tigers matchup due to the cavernous Detroit ballpark environment. He emphasized that the dimensions and conditions historically suppress home runs significantly, noting that after extensive analysis using Odd Chopper's proprietary data, he found zero positive EV (expected value) bets for home runs in Detroit games during early-season matchups. Lindquist highlighted that despite Kerry Carpenter recently overcoming these conditions, expecting sustained power outputs at Comerica Park is generally not smart betting strategy, and bettors are better off considering total bases or doubles bets rather than home-run props.

Eric Lindquist indicated leaning toward the under 8.5 runs in the Blue Jays vs. Red Sox game due to the Red Sox participating in a doubleheader the previous day, which typically impacts lineups negatively. He expressed skepticism about the Red Sox rolling out effective right-handed bats against the Toronto left-handed starter. Lindquist expressed further reservations about Red Sox pitcher Richard Fitz and the bullpen management following the doubleheader, strongly suggesting management's immediate bullpen fatigue and generally reduced offensive firepower would contribute to a low-scoring game environment.

Eric Lindquist expressed concern about Walker Buehler's significant drop in velocity. He pointed out Buehler's fastball velocity is down roughly two miles per hour from last season, averaging only about 93 mph compared to 95 mph previously. Lindquist emphasized velocity declines of this magnitude often predict regression, especially since Buehler's results last year already showed inconsistency. Lindquist suggests caution despite Buehler's postseason heroics with the Dodgers, advising bettors to not overreact positively to the name recognition, given the alarming velocity metrics early this season.

Eric Lindquist is bullish on Spencer Schwellenbach's strikeout upside against Miami, highlighting Schwellenbach's elite showing against the Padres where he gave up just one hit in six innings. Lindquist noted Schwellenbach's impressive metrics from last year as well, including a robust 25.4% strikeout rate with a 3.44 expected ERA. He believes the current strikeout line of 6.5 at even money pricing is undervaluing Schwellenbach against a Marlins lineup that, despite a slow start to their strikeouts, is primed to increase that number substantially tonight.

Eric Lindquist expresses consistent skepticism toward Seth Lugo due to his persistent issues with fly ball contact. He highlights Lugo's unimpressive profile at age 35, despite a career-best 3.75 expected ERA last year, calling it an anomaly in an otherwise declining performance trajectory. Lindquist recalls that Lugo showed elite form briefly in 2019 with a 2.43 expected ERA, but since then has underwhelmed. He firmly recommends taking the Baltimore Orioles money line, pointing out that the Orioles' lineup strength will be improved with the anticipated return of Gunnar Henderson, making Lugo someone to fade strongly tonight.

Eric Lindquist strongly endorses the Orioles money line tonight, primarily due to his confidence in starter Dean Kremer. Lindquist outlined that despite Kremer giving up five earned runs last game against Toronto, a deeper examination shows underlying bad luck. Kremer produced a solid 2.98 expected ERA and displayed improved contact metrics late last year. Lindquist further downgraded Kansas City's Seth Lugo as generally unimpressive and overly reliant on fly-ball contact. He considers Baltimore undervalued as +102 underdogs given their superior bullpen, Kremer's potential regression to success, and notable lineup boost with Gunnar Henderson's anticipated return.

Eric Lindquist expects Anthony Santander to bounce back offensively despite a rocky start. Lindquist highlighted Santander's concerning early-season barrel rate of just 5%, significantly below last year's 11.7%, and his hard-hit rate dipping from 41.6% down to 30%. Despite these early quality contact issues, Lindquist predicts positive regression, underscoring Santander's favorable historical performance from the left side of the plate, combined with today's favorable wind conditions blowing out to right field. He strongly recommends betting Santander to record at least one hit as a high-confidence parlay piece at -146 odds, advising not going beyond -160.

Eric Lindquist strongly endorses Ivan Herrera offensively tonight following his impressive three-homer performance, making him the first Cardinals catcher ever to achieve the feat. Lindquist expresses confidence in Herrera's season-long fantasy potential, owning him on many fantasy teams. Though acknowledging ballpark factors with Fenway's green monster possibly hindering pull hitters, he remains bullish on Herrera's season-long upside and tonight's aggressive offensive props.

Eric Lindquist strongly endorses betting the Dodgers money line versus the Phillies, emphasizing a key rest advantage. He highlights the Dodgers' rested bullpen following a day off compared to Philadelphia's recent bullpen stress after their matchup with Colorado, where key reliever Jose Alvarado was heavily utilized. Lindquist also praises the overall strength of the Dodgers lineup anchored by Shohei Ohtani and Michael Conforto, alongside impressive new pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto who holds an outstanding 34.1% strikeout rate. He confidently recommends the Dodgers at the current money line odds of -134.

Eric Lindquist expresses skepticism towards Zack Littell despite his excellent seasonal debut, stating he had one of the better first outings possible. Still, Lindquist mentions Littell has been in MLB since 2018 as a middle reliever and hasn't demonstrated sustainable elite form historically. He suggests regression is possible against the Rangers, indicating Littell's very successful opening start may not reflect season-long growth or sustainability.

Eric Lindquist sees Jonathan Cannon offering sneaky strikeout upside tonight facing the Tigers' right-handed heavy lineup. Cannon showed solid ability in his first start, allowing just a .210 expected batting average over 12 batted balls, though he did give up one barrel. Lindquist indicates some concern with Detroit's lefties Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene, but otherwise expects Cannon to succeed against the righty-dominant Tigers lineup, particularly given the pitcher-friendly environment in Detroit tonight. He suggests Cannon is set to handle the matchup effectively, particularly against right-handed batters.

Eric Lindquist highlights Sean Manaea as positioned favorably tonight thanks to the frigid conditions and wind blowing strongly in at Wrigley Field. Lindquist emphasizes weather conditions greatly impacting scoring at Wrigley are a primary consideration. He notes that Randy Vasquez, also pitching tonight, looked effective in his first outing with an exceptional 18.8% hard-hit rate allowed. But it is Manaea specifically who Lindquist expects to thrive in tonight's harsh conditions, creating a promising scenario for pitching success.

Eric Lindquist strongly advises targeting Jake Irvin tonight after highlighting significant regression potential. Lindquist explains Irvin dramatically outperformed underlying metrics last season (4.41 actual ERA versus 4.31 expected ERA) and started this season even more poorly with a 9.15 expected ERA, boding poorly for upcoming matchups. He argues Irvin's pitch mix and inflated prior year stats make him a clear regression candidate and excellent offensive target, particularly with left-handed hitters.

Eric Lindquist advised closely watching Jazz Chisholm's RBI bets in live betting markets. Despite Chisholm only managing a single early without runners on, Lindquist highlighted the ninth-inning bump that bettors often undervalue in live lines when the team (Yankees, down 4-0 at the time) is behind. Lindquist emphasizes that live betting lines sometimes overlook this late-game hitting advantage, recommending bettors seek out advantageous live opportunities with Chisholm given these conditions.

Eric Lindquist highlighted Phillies left-handed hitters Brandon Marsh, Kyle Schwarber, Max Kepler, and Bryce Harper as attractive prop targets facing Rockies pitcher Antonio Senzatela. He emphasized Philadelphia’s ballpark as extremely hitter-friendly with wind conditions particularly conducive for hitting. Lindquist called out Senzatela’s disastrous debut performance (101 mph avg. exit velocity, .935 expected slugging) as indicative of vulnerability. While acknowledging Kyle Schwarber's prop numbers may already be priced lower due to matchup familiarity, Lindquist sees potential value among Phillies left-handed hitters lower in the order for player props or DFS entries.

Eric Lindquist identified the Cincinnati Reds moneyline (-105) as a potential value bet, emphasizing a bounce-back opportunity for pitcher Nick Lodolo. Despite Lodolo only recording one strikeout in six innings in his debut, Lindquist expects significant positive regression, emphasizing Lodolo's considerable strikeout upside and a curveball he compares to Chris Sale's signature pitch. Although Milwaukee's home park isn't typically pitcher-friendly, Lindquist believes Lodolo's underlying strikeout profile makes the Reds a strong play, especially if the line shifts into plus money by game time.

Eric Lindquist expressed strong interest in betting the Dodgers run line against the Braves, specifically targeting Bryce Elder. Elder allowed troubling numbers last season, with metrics such as a .285 expected batting average, 45.3% hard-hit rate, and an 8.7% barrel rate. Lindquist emphasized previous success betting against Elder (8-2 record), strongly favoring Blake Snell and highlighting that the Dodgers had rest advantages with a fresh bullpen after Monday's off day. He saw exceptional value getting nearly even money (-105) on a run line bet against Elder's vulnerability and an uneasy Braves squad.

Eric Lindquist identified Jazz Chisholm RBIs as an appealing play due to high expected walk rates for teammate Aaron Judge. Lindquist pointed out that opposing pitchers are likely to pitch carefully to Judge, significantly increasing Chisholm's RBI opportunities batting ahead or directly following Judge in the lineup. Citing odds movement (initially +175, moving to +195), Lindquist considers this play attractive due to Judge’s protection effect. He highlighted that Arizona starter Zac Gallen historically struggles against left-handed hitters, adding extra support for Chisholm's RBI potential in a batter-friendly setting at Yankee Stadium.

Eric Lindquist pinpointed Tyler O'Neill to homer at +475 odds against Garrett Crochet and the Boston Red Sox. He pointed out Crochet facing righties more often, highlighting Zach Eflin’s reverse splits tendency (a .281 batting average allowed to right-handed hitters versus .225 against lefties). Lindquist also noted Baltimore’s recent wall dimension adjustments that have positively shifted hitting conditions back towards average for right-handed batters, providing additional potential for O'Neill's raw power to be effective. He found notable value at the price, emphasizing this as a strong betting call.

Eric Lindquist advised betting against Chicago White Sox starter Jameson in the first five innings against the Oakland Athletics. Jameson had extremely poor metrics from his first outing of the season, notably a .685 expected slugging, .445 xwOBA, a troubling 14.3% barrel rate, and an alarming 8.63 expected ERA. Lindquist emphasized the value in backing starter Jeffrey Springs for Oakland to exploit Jameson's struggles, strongly recommending a first-five innings wager despite slightly less advantageous odds compared to a full-game line due to bullpen uncertainties.

Eric Lindquist suggested betting Washington Nationals first five innings moneyline against a bullpen-oriented starting pitcher for the Toronto Blue Jays, specifically mentioning Easton Lucas. He particularly liked this spot given the Nationals' strength in facing left-handed pitching. Lindquist detailed that Washington bats such as Josh Bell and Keibert Ruiz perform notably stronger from the right side and should match up advantageously against Lucas. He expressed clear confidence in this first five innings bet at around -125, viewing it as very advantageous compared with the game full line of approximately -116.

Eric Lindquist highlighted Sean Burke of the White Sox as someone to bet against due to strongly negative underlying metrics in his first start. Burke allowed a troubling .683 expected slugging percentage and failed to induce meaningful swing and misses over 18 batted ball events, exposing significant struggles and vulnerability to powerful hitters entering his upcoming start against Minnesota, suggesting betting on opposing hitters.