Eric Lindquist said he will fire on Jonathan Aranda’s home-run prop at any number better than +350 against Boston rookie Hunter Dobbins. Dobbins sports just a 17.3 % strikeout rate and a 42.8 % hard-hit rate, metrics Lindy called "BP fastballs for lefty pull power," which fits Aranda’s 44-degree pull-side launch profile. Lindquist missed the early +600 that briefly popped, but he still sees value because Fenway’s short right-field porch pairs with Dobbins’ mediocre velo. With Junior Caminero and Brandon Lowe providing lineup protection, Lindquist expects Aranda to see at least one juicy fastball per plate appearance and prefers a quarter-unit sprinkle on the long-ball market rather than laying full units on Rays moneylines.

Eric Lindquist urged bettors to grab Detroit -1.5 because he trusts Tarik Skubal and wants to attack Luis Castillo. Lindquist noted Castillo’s four–seam looks noticeably flatter this season, pointing to an 11.7 % barrel rate and 46.9 % hard-hit rate that scream impending regression when he leaves spacious T-Mobile Park. Skubal, meanwhile, has already cashed multiple Tigers run-line tickets for Lindy this year and owns the AL’s third-best K-BB% since May 1. Detroit’s lineup is calibrated for left-handed run support — Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene both carry .370-plus wOBA marks versus righties — giving Skubal room to work with. Lindquist cannot fathom why the market has Detroit laying only a short price on the run line and labeled it his “second-favorite play of the slate.”

Eric Lindquist recommended taking separate shots on Isaac Paredes to homer AND to steal a base Friday against rookie Jack Leiter. Lindquist likes sprinkling quarter-unit plays on each prop because Leiter’s 5.02 xERA, sub-20% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate create two different paths to profit. Paredes is a pure pull hitter whose 40-degree average launch shots translate well in Minute Maid Park; he also owns a double-digit walk rate that should put him on base when Leiter’s command wanders, giving him a chance to swipe a bag against a Texas battery that has allowed the fifth-most steals this season. With the Rangers coming in on travel and Houston rolling out a makeshift outfield, Lindquist sees Paredes’ power-speed combo as a sneaky plus-money exploit.

Eric Lindquist advised laying the run line with Cleveland because he sees a clear edge: Gavin Williams versus an unnamed 'Smith' right-hander. Williams flashed ace-level stuff in his last start and, while the rookie’s 13% walk rate scares Lindquist a bit, the strikeout upside dwarfs the risk. On the other side, Smith’s underlying data is ugly—46.1% hard-hit rate and only a 20.8% strikeout clip—which Lindquist believes will let Cleveland’s contact-heavy lineup string rallies together. With the Guardians more dangerous versus right-handed pitching and Williams capable of six strong frames, Lindquist thinks the -1.5 is worth the juice despite Cleveland being the road team.

Eric Lindquist said to take Ryan O'Hearn over 1.5 combined hits, runs and RBIs against Miami. O'Hearn is locked into the clean-up spot and will face Edward Cabrera, a right-hander with shaky command who owns a double-digit walk rate. Lindquist pointed out that Cabrera’s volatility keeps Baltimore’s lineup on the bases and gives O’Hearn extra RBI chances. The Orioles avoided using O’Hearn in the first half of Thursday’s double-header so he comes in rested, and the ballpark boost of Camden Yards means a single gap shot can clear the number. With Dean Kremer expected to go for Baltimore, Lindquist expects a positive run environment that raises O’Hearn’s counting-stat floor.

Doubling down on his Nationals love, Lindquist suggested looking at James Wood total bases or home-run props against Miles Mikolas, whom he labeled "awful, terrible, horrible, no good, very bad." Mikolas’ declining strikeout rate leaves him vulnerable to Wood’s prodigious power—underscored by a 443-foot blast the rookie just launched earlier in the day. Even with slightly milder weather in St. Louis, the matchup and ball-in-play profile remain firmly in Wood’s favor, and the Cardinals’ bullpen provides little relief once Mikolas exits.

Lindquist is running the Angels back at +105, citing multiple matchup edges. Rookie Jack Kochanowicz’s 53.1% ground-ball rate and sinker-heavy arsenal attack Texas where they struggle most—the Rangers own the worst wRC+ in baseball versus fastballs. Kochanowicz has started upping four-seam usage and both his slider and changeup have ticked up, giving him just enough strikeout ability to survive. On the other side, Patrick Corbin is still targetable and the Angels’ bullpen metrics grade out better than Texas’s shaky relief corps. Lindquist likes grabbing plus money before the market corrects and believes Los Angeles can squeeze out a second straight win.

Lindquist recommended firing an Austin Riley home-run prop (and even sprinkling a two-homer ladder) against J.P. Sears in Oakland. He argued Riley has been unlucky: his expected slugging is still hovering near .500 despite the surface dip to .431, and his hard-hit profile mirrors the 37-homer 2023 campaign. Sears provides the perfect get-right spot with a 21.8-degree average launch angle allowed, a flattened four-seam, and a 0.462 expected slugging that plays even worse in the Coliseum’s AAA-style environment with wind blowing out. With Riley locked into a top-four lineup slot and Atlanta’s surrounding bats forcing Sears to pitch to him, Lindquist sees plus-money value on a long ball.

Lindquist encouraged looking at CJ Abrams (and fellow lefty James Wood) props when the Nationals visit St. Louis. He called Miles Mikolas "awful, terrible, horrible, no good, very bad," and noted that even with milder weather in St. Louis, the matchup still heavily favors Washington’s high-impact left-handed bats. With Soroka showing improved strikeout stuff on the other side, the Nationals’ offense is the piece he wants exposure to, and Abrams’ combination of pop and speed makes him his preferred target.

Lindquist advised betting the Orioles moneyline in the first game of Thursday’s Mets–Orioles double-header. He expects negative regression for Mets left-hander David Peterson and highlighted that Camden Yards now favors Baltimore’s own left-handed bats. The Mets will be shorthanded for game two and could be forced to dip into Triple-A depth, while Baltimore retains flexibility to attack whichever spot starter New York selects. Lindquist also reminded listeners that Sagano, the likely Mets bulk arm, still owns an expected ISO north of .200 versus lefties, keeping the matchup tilted toward Baltimore.

Eric Lindquist said to take Steven Kwan OVER 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs in the Guardians’ next game versus Jonathan Cannon and the White Sox. He pointed to Kwan’s steady underlying profile – a .282 expected batting average, only an 8.7 % strikeout rate, and a 7.9 % walk rate – noting that those metrics have stayed intact even through Cleveland’s recent quiet stretch. Lindquist likes stacking counting stats with Kwan because a single so often comes paired with a run scored atop the order, especially now that Angel Martinez is swinging it well behind him. Getting out of pitcher-friendly Houston and into Chicago should further help the top-of-the-order catalyst pile up production.

Lindquist took the Angels straight-up against Texas, citing a huge pitching edge. Kyle Hendricks may sport only a 15.9 % K-rate, but his old-man changeup/sinker act still limits damage—86 mph average exit velocity and a parade of soft infield contact keep the Cubs veteran relevant. Conversely, Kumar Rocker’s big-league cameo has been a mess: 47.6 % hard-hit rate, 11.9 % barrel rate, .294 expected average and just a 20.3 % strikeout clip. Lindquist expects lefty bats like Nolan Schanuel, Zach Neto, and Taylor Ward to get multiple cracks at Rocker before a compromised Texas bullpen takes over. With the Halos priced near even money, he projects them as slight favorites and fired on the moneyline.

Eric Lindquist circled Brent Rooker’s home-run prop and would bet anything north of +255 despite Tuesday’s bomb likely shortening the price. He’s attacking Bryce Elder’s 0.530 expected slugging, 47.4 % hard-hit rate, and 10.7 % barrel rate—numbers that stay red across both lefties and righties. Rooker’s own batted-ball profile (19 ° average launch angle, 15 % barrel) perfectly leverages Elder’s low-whiff, sinker-heavy approach, and Truist Park’s summer weather adds extra carry. Lindquist warned Atlanta occasionally deploys an opener, but with Oakland essentially mailing in the season he expects Spence straight up, giving Rooker at least two cracks at Elder. He set his fair odds at +255, anything longer is “fire it.”

Lindquist laid -1.5 with the Padres against Arizona, calling the matchup a "clear pitching mismatch." Brandon Pfaadt’s four-seamer/sinker/change/curve/cutter cocktail is getting torched for a 13.4 % barrel rate, 50.3 % hard-hit rate, and .568 expected slugging. Velocity is down half a tick and whiffs have cratered, making the new contract look like "one of the worst in baseball." San Diego’s offense has underwhelmed lately, but Lindquist believes Petco’s marine layer is less of an issue on this warm July evening and projects 5+ Padres runs. With Michael King’s 29 % K-rate on the other side, he feels the Friars win by multiple runs over 60 % of the time, justifying the plus-money run line.

Eric Lindquist targeted Jazz Chisholm Jr. for a home-run prop against 24-year-old right-hander Logan Evans. Lindquist labeled Evans “a soft-tossing variety” whose fastball grades out poorly, allowing a .347 xwOBA and .285 xBA. Without plus velocity or a reliable secondary that can neutralize lefties, Evans sets up perfectly for Jazz’s pull-side power. Lindquist expects the market to hang a number north of +500 because of Chisholm’s recent cold stretch, presenting what he views as clear value, especially with no dominant lefty waiting in the Cubs bullpen behind Evans.

Eric Lindquist said the Jonathan Aranda home-run prop is worth firing on at +550 or longer against Detroit right-hander Reese Olson. Lindquist stressed that Olson’s shiny 2.89 ERA hides a 3.59 xERA and an almost certainly unsustainable total of just three homers allowed all year. Olson’s heater has been barreled at a 10% clip in July, and Lindquist expects HR regression as temps rise at Comerica. With Rays opener Zack Littell having allowed the most bombs of any qualified starter, Lindquist projects a high-variance, power-friendly game overall, which makes the big number on Aranda’s homer “too good to pass up.”

Eric Lindquist recommended betting Hunter Brown’s earned-runs under, preferring the plus-money 1.5 alt line but still comfortable up to –120. Brown owns a 2.74 xwOBA and a 32.1 % strikeout rate that Lindquist likened to “prime DeGrom.” Cleveland’s offense grades out poorly against right-handed pitching (91 wRC+; 21.7 % K-rate) and has been more exploitable by southpaws all season. With the Guardians likely piecing together a bullpen game on the other side, Lindquist expects Dusty Baker to let Brown work deep enough for six dominant frames, projecting zero or one earned run. He views the standard 2.5 line as a strong parlay anchor but is aggressively chasing the 1.5 under for standalone action.

Eric Lindquist advised bettors to attack the Cardinals –1 alt-run-line at –130 on DraftKings because he views Tuesday’s matchup as a lopsided pitching duel. Lindquist called Jake Irvin “a mirage” whose peripherals have cratered: a 5.34 expected ERA, .525 expected slugging, and 47.9 % hard-hit rate. By contrast, Sonny Gray gives St. Louis a massive edge and should keep Washington’s contact-oriented lineup in check. Lindquist noted the Cardinals’ bats rarely miss hittable pitches and expects them to capitalize on Irvin’s elevated barrel profile, making a one-run victory the floor. He explained the proper split-stake approach (moneyline plus –1 run slider) but prefers the pre-built –1 market for simplicity.

Eric Lindquist flagged Eugenio Suarez as a live long-ball candidate when the Padres face Nick Pivetta. Petco Park played homer-happy last year but has returned to neutral in 2024, yet Lindquist thinks Suarez’s power can still play because Pivetta’s contact profile is deteriorating: an 11.5 % barrel rate paired with a 19.5-degree average launch angle allowed. Suarez’s own launch-angle-friendly swing should marry perfectly with Pivetta’s fly-ball tendencies. Lindquist noted that San Diego’s bullpen-centric game plans mean they will happily trade a solo shot for five decent innings from Pivetta, increasing Suarez’s chance of seeing hittable four-seamers in the middle innings. He prefers a Suarez over 1.5 total-bases ticket but is comfortable escalating to a +400 or better homer prop if the market hangs a fat number.

Eric Lindquist earmarked TJ Friedl as his favorite long-shot home-run prop for Tuesday’s Marlins–Reds game. Lindquist explained that Miami’s highly-touted righty Yuri Perez is still searching for his 2023 form; Perez’s strikeout rate has dipped to 22.6 % while his walk rate has spiked to 11.8 %. More importantly for a Great American Ball Park matchup, Perez is giving up a 25.9-degree average launch angle that screams fly-ball trouble outside of cavernous LoanDepot Park. Friedl rarely whiffs (just 14.4 % K-rate last season) and sits atop the order, so he’ll maximize plate appearances and should put balls in play when Perez inevitably challenges him. Even with only a 31 % hard-hit rate, Friedl has already cleared the fence eight times thanks to elite contact efficiency. Lindquist likes attacking the large plus-money number on a Friedl homer and notes it pairs well with over 1.5 total-bases escalators for those who prefer a little safety.

Eric Lindquist is eyeing Jose Soriano’s earned-runs under (2.5 at standard juice or even a plus-money 1.5 alt line) against Texas. Soriano sports a 66.9 percent ground-ball rate, an elite profile that keeps the ball in the yard, and his four-seam/sinker combo carries a strong run value. That pitch mix is especially troublesome for the Rangers, whom Lindquist noted are "the worst team in baseball against the fastball" this season. With Texas’ lineup scuffling and Soriano generating worm-burners, the tout expects limited damage across six innings or so and prefers the earned-runs under to traditional strikeout props.

Lindquist recommended going back to Jonathan Aranda props (HR or 2+ total bases) and slotting him into DFS lineups against Jack Flaherty. Aranda owns "ridiculous" splits versus right-handed pitching – a .267 ISO and .400+ expected wOBA in his brief MLB sample – while Flaherty has surrendered "well over a .200 expected ISO" to left-handed hitters this season. The analyst pointed out that Tropicana Field depresses homers, but Detroit’s Comerica Park plays much fairer and the Rays moved Aranda up in the order when Brandon Lau sits. All signs, per Lindquist, point to Aranda barreling at least one extra-base hit Tuesday.

Eric Lindquist said Juan Soto is in a perfect get-right environment Tuesday at Camden Yards. He highlighted Soto’s elite current metrics – a 56.6 percent hard-hit rate, .457 xwOBA and .650 expected slugging – while noting the star outfielder is running more (10 steals already) and still posting a .904 OPS despite an uncharacteristically low .263 batting average. The matchup is against rookie right-hander Brandon Young, whose minor-league track record shows no real weapon to neutralize left-handed power. With warm hitting weather and a short right-field porch in Baltimore, Lindquist expects Soto to rack up bases and labeled him a strong over 1.5 total-bases or home-run prop target, plus a core DFS spend-up.

Lindquist took the Arizona Money Line at plus money in San Diego, arguing Zac Gallen’s recent struggles are overstated. He pointed to open-roof Chase Field inflating Gallen’s early numbers, noting the right-hander still owns a 30.8% CSW and career-best 47.4% ground-ball rate. Meanwhile, Yu Darvish makes his season debut after a disrupted ramp-up and is unlikely to eclipse 70 pitches, leaving the Padres’ overworked middle relief to cover bulk innings. Arizona’s offense grades top-10 against right-handed velocity and will avoid Josh Hader after his weekend three-out save. Lindquist called the +120 range a clear market overreaction and his favorite underdog play on Monday’s slate.

Lindquist circled Wyatt Langford as a home-run dart against Yusei Kikuchi in warm Anaheim conditions (82° first-pitch temperature). Langford’s underlying numbers pop: a .272 expected ISO and nearly 20° average launch angle versus lefties despite spending time on the IL. Kikuchi’s strikeout rate plummets from 29.6% to 23% when facing right-handed hitters and he allows a .207 expected ISO with a 14.5° launch angle. With virtually no lefties to hide behind and a hitter-friendly marine layer this time of year, Lindquist expects Langford to see at least three high-leverage ABs. He recommends a standard HR prop and sprinkles a small unit on a Langford-plus-Berger two-homer parlay for lottery-ticket upside.

Eric Lindquist advised betting Noah Cameron under 2.5 earned runs in Tuesday’s start versus Pittsburgh. Lindquist loves that Cameron owns a 2.56 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and has worked between 80-88 pitches in four straight outings, allowing the Royals to pull him before third-time-through penalties show up. Kansas City’s spacious Kauffman Stadium and a game-time cross-field wind further suppress run creation. The matchup is ideal: the Pirates rank dead last (sub-70 wRC+) against left-handed pitching and just produced a .215 team average on their recent West-Coast swing. Cameron’s only clunker came against the Dodgers’ buzz-saw lineup; Lindquist expects the soft-hitting Bucs to struggle to string rallies together, making the plus-money UNDER a bet worth chasing down to –150.

Eric Lindquist recommended backing the Dodgers on the moneyline against Milwaukee. He likes Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s ability to neutralize a Brewers lineup that suddenly lacks thump now that Reese Hoskins has hit the 10-day IL. Lindquist stressed that Milwaukee’s remaining core—Christian Yelich, William Contreras, and Brice Turang—puts the ball on the ground (average launch angle under 10°) and owns below-average barrel rates, which plays right into Yamamoto’s elite splitter/curveball mix. Conversely, Freddie Peralta has allowed a 9.7% barrel rate and an 18.5° launch angle this season, numbers Lindquist sees as a nightmare versus a Dodgers order that will now feature Miguel Vargas nearly every day alongside the usual lefty power of Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman. With the roof expected to be open at American Family Field—turning the park into what Milwaukee locals call a "sauna"—Lindquist expects the ball to carry for Los Angeles, giving the Dodgers both the pitching and hitting edge.

Eric Lindquist targeted Austin Hays to strike out two or more times, noting Hays’ 28% K-rate against right-handed pitching and his propensity to chase breaking balls below the zone. Miami’s bullpen, which Lindquist highlighted for a 26% collective strikeout rate, amplifies the upside because Hays is likely to face multiple high-leverage relievers with plus swing-and-miss stuff after Jansen Junk exits. Lindquist paired Hays with fellow whiff-happy teammate Tyler Stevenson in the same market, emphasizing that books are still mis-pricing individual batter strikeout props because few bettors attack them. He framed it as a niche angle with consistent closing line value, especially in spacious loanDepot Park where contact turns into outs rather than hits.

Eric Lindquist said Zack Wheeler remains an elite value at +800 to win the NL Cy Young. He pointed to Wheeler’s complete-game, 12-strikeout gem last week as evidence that the right-hander’s form is peaking at the perfect time. Wheeler owns a 2.73 xERA, a career-best 30.4% strikeout rate, and has already posted two starts with double-digit punch-outs since the All-Star break. Lindquist added that Philadelphia’s bullpen depth reduces the risk of blown wins and that voters often lean toward pitchers on playoff teams—something the division-leading Phillies have going for them. With Spencer Strider out for the year and Logan Webb’s peripheral stats sliding, Lindquist argued the path for Wheeler to separate from the field is wide open, making +800 a mis-priced future he “should have nuked.”

Eric Lindquist doubled down on Brandon Lowe (pronounced “Lau”) to homer again in Minneapolis. Lowe has been, in Lindquist’s words, “on another planet,” and now gets to swing in 93-degree heat with a 20-mph jet stream to right, ideal for his pull-side loft. Twins right-hander Chris Paddack sports a 1.62 HR/9 and middling 39.6 % hard-hit rate; Lindquist noted Paddack’s four-seam/change combo plays directly into Lowe’s power zone. Given Lowe’s recent power binge and the extreme hitting weather, Lindquist thinks any HR price longer than +425 is a green-light wager.

Lindquist is firing on Byron Buxton to go deep in a July-4 slugfest at Target Field. First-pitch temps are projected at 93 ° F with 20 mph winds howling out to left – conditions Lindquist called “surface of the sun” for hitters. Opposing starter Zach Littell serves up a 504 expected slugging percentage, 12 % barrel rate and 90.5 mph average exit velocity to right-handed bats, surrendering 12 homers to them already. Buxton’s dead-pull power profile lines up perfectly with the weather and Littell’s tendencies, so Lindquist is adding the Twins slugger to his Lindy’s Long Balls home-run card at anything north of +350.

Lindquist bet Nick Castellanos over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (H+R+RBI) at –125 in the Cincinnati–Philadelphia series opener. He highlighted warm hitting conditions that have juiced offense at Citizens Bank all season and a favorable matchup with Reds left-hander Andrew Abbott, whose extreme 20.3-degree average launch angle can turn hard contact into cheap homers and doubles. Castellanos should stay locked into the top five of the Phillies’ order even with Bryce Harper back, giving him three clear paths (hit, run, RBI) to cash. Lindquist likes the all-inclusive H+R+RBI market because it captures Castellanos’ ability to both drive in and score runs against an arm he believes is due for regression.

Eric Lindquist targeted Michael Soroka over 5.5 strikeouts in Friday’s early matchup at Fenway. Soroka owns a 26.3 % strikeout rate, 285 xwOBA, 213 xBA and a tidy 348 xSLG since joining Washington’s rotation – underlying numbers that suggest he is far sharper than his name-value implies. Boston has been a punch-out machine since trading Rafael Devers, carrying a 24 % K-rate against right-handers this season and closer to 27 % over the past month, the third-highest mark in MLB. Lindquist couldn’t understand why books opened the prop at only 5.5 and expects Soroka to cruise past it with the Red Sox whiffing early and often.

Lindquist listed Eric Lauer over 4.5 strikeouts as an appealing parlay piece, even at the juiced −165. The Angels strike out 27.9% of the time and carry just an 84 wRC+ versus southpaws, providing a generous ceiling for any competent lefty. While Lauer is not an elite punch-out arm, Lindquist noted he has flashed spurts of swing-and-miss and should benefit from Los Angeles’ whiff-heavy profile. In a bullpen day on the other side, he expects Lauer to work deep enough to clear five Ks.

Lindquist is taking another quarter-unit swing on Jackson Merrill to homer at roughly +400. Merrill’s price opened the season around +250 in Petco, so the market has over-corrected after a cold stretch that includes just one extra-base hit in the last 2½ weeks. Lindquist emphasized that Merrill is fully healthy—he “climbed a wall like Spider-Man” recently—and believes the number has finally drifted past true odds, making the wager a calculated value play despite the slump.

Lindquist suggested building a Bryan Woo strikeout ladder against the Pirates. Woo’s stuff has played up since returning from the IL, and he draws a Pittsburgh lineup that owns just an 85 wRC+ and a 22.2% K-rate versus right-handed pitching. T-Mobile Park suppresses offense, allowing Woo to work deeper, although his standard outs props are already “inflated like crazy.” Lindquist still sees value escalating the K alt lines because Pittsburgh profiles as contact-challenged and Seattle’s pen is fresh if Woo pushes 90 pitches.

Lindquist flagged Juan Soto over 1.5 walks as a playable prop against Marcus Stroman. Stroman’s control has abandoned him, posting a 13.6% walk rate through his first 49 batted-ball events and a 5.88 expected ERA. Lindquist added that the New York bullpen “has no identity,” cycling through arms like Weaver while dropping three straight in Toronto, so additional free passes after Stroman exits are live. With Soto’s trademark patience and Stroman’s current wildness, Lindquist expects at least two free passes at plus money.

Eric Lindquist advised betting Isaac Paredes’ home-run prop if books post anything better than +295 for Thursday’s game at Coors. Lindquist dug into Statcast’s Pull-Air leaderboard, noting that Paredes ranks top-5 in MLB for percentage of balls pulled in the air—a trait Houston specifically targeted because it plays perfectly to their Minute Maid short porch. That profile becomes even more dangerous at Coors, where the forecast again calls for a double-digit wind blowing straight out to left. Lindquist added that Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland owns a 302 expected batting average, a 10-degree average launch angle, and very little swing-and-miss, meaning lots of elevated contact in the jet stream. He personally grabbed +350 earlier in the day and would still play it down to +295, calling anything above that “pure value.”