Polzin doubled down on Sam Burns as the safest sub-$8K option and sweetened the pot by recommending a 45-to-1 outright. Burns is trending nicely—T-13 at RBC Heritage, T-11 at Wells Fargo and T-5 at the CJ Cup—while gaining 1.1 strokes per round tee-to-green across that span. He has finished 15th in each of his last two Memorial starts and grades 30th in Polzin’s stat model, highlighted by 6th-best Bentgrass putting and 18th in birdie-or-better percentage over the last 36 rounds. With a DraftKings salary of $7,900, Burns slides perfectly into fair-and-balanced constructions alongside Fleetwood, Conners and Si Woo Kim. Polzin projects a top-20 median finish with legitimate Sunday contention chances, making Burns a core DFS piece and a must-click at 45-1 before books adjust.

Calling him his No. 1 core play, Eric Polzin highlighted J.J. Spaun as both a DFS staple and a betting target at 70-to-1. Spaun ranks 9th in Polzin’s composite stat model—powered by top-15 marks in approach proximity from 175-200 yards, par-5 scoring, and scrambling on Bentgrass greens—and sits 13th in recent-form rating after finishes of T-16, T-21 and T-11 over his last four starts. He has gained strokes with the irons in six straight tournaments and owns a pair of top-30s in previous Memorial appearances, suggesting comfort with Muirfield Village’s demanding second-shot test. At a mid-7K salary on DraftKings, Spaun is the key enabler for Scheffler builds while still offering real win equity; Polzin is allocating roughly 15% of his outright card and 25-30% DFS exposure to the San Diego State product.

Polzin urged caution on Bud Cauley despite a flashy T-3 last week and seven consecutive made cuts. His custom model pegs Cauley only 23rd in overall stat fit because he ranks outside the top-40 in ball-striking, par-5 scoring and birdie rate—three categories Polzin says are non-negotiable at Jack’s Place. The Memorial’s thicker rough and longer par-4s differ dramatically from last week’s venue, so Polzin believes the recent podium finish will inflate ownership without offering comparable upside. He plans to come in well underweight or full-fade in GPPs, preferring similarly priced ceiling plays such as Matthias Schmid or Taylor Pendrith if their ownership stays low.

Eric Polzin singled out Christiaan Bezuidenhout as his favorite sub-8K salary-saver in the value tier. Bezuidenhout has been inching toward a breakout, gaining strokes in three straight events and posting finishes of T-18, T-27 and T-12 while climbing to 17th in Polzin’s recent-form model. More important for this week, he owns sneaky-good history at Muirfield Village—4th in 2023 and 37th in 2024—despite being priced like a cut-maker rather than a contender. Polzin noted that Bezuidenhout sits 11th in the field in bogey avoidance and 14th in Bentgrass putting over the last 36 rounds, two stats he weights heavily for the Memorial. Because the South African rarely attracts heavy ownership, Polzin plans to be 2-3x the field in GPPs and is comfortable pairing him with Scheffler-anchored builds to smooth out cut-risk.

Berger missed the cut in his last start, but Polzin chalked it up to a putting anomaly—multiple lip-outs and edge burns captured on broadcast. Prior to that he had strung together four top-25 finishes and was gaining over 1.2 strokes per round tee-to-green. His price has slid into the low-$7Ks, presenting what Polzin called a classic buy-low spot. He expects ownership to be suppressed after last week’s miscue, making Berger a strong GPP pivot with top-15 equity if the putter merely cooperates.

Polzin warned that Sungjae Im is no longer the cut-making machine of his rookie season but still offers slate-breaking upside. Im owns three top-10s at Muirfield (8th, 10th, and 15th) along with a missed cut, mirroring his recent volatility. Over the last 24 rounds he sits 12th in strokes gained approach yet just 68th in putting, explaining the boom-or-bust results. Polzin recommends deploying Im only in large-field GPPs, getting overweight when projected ownership is muted to capitalize on a potential top-5 outcome.

Polzin flagged Taylor Pendrith as a volatile but high-reward tournament play. Pendrith ranks inside the top-15 in driving distance and approach proximity from 175-200 yards—two metrics historically predictive at Jack’s Place. He owns a pair of T-5 finishes this season (Houston Open, PGA Championship) under similar tough-scoring conditions and rates as a top-20 statistical match in Polzin’s model. Although his Memorial results read 38th and 58th, Polzin thinks the firmer setup in 2025 replicates PGA Championship conditions and could unlock Pendrith’s ceiling. He will overweight the Canadian only if projected ownership stays in the single digits.

Burns has quietly made five consecutive cuts and ranks sixth in Polzin’s recent-form index over the last five tournaments, highlighted by a 5th at the CJ Cup and T-13 at RBC Heritage. Two straight T-15 finishes at Muirfield show he can handle Muirfield Village’s demanding tee-to-green test. At a depressed salary in the low-$7K range, Polzin labels Burns the safest click in the lower tier, especially useful for Scheffler builds that still need cut-making stability and scoring upside.

Polzin views Si Woo Kim as one of the safest mid-tier plays this week. Kim’s Memorial record is elite for the price: 15th, 4th, 13th and 9th in four straight trips to Muirfield Village. His model pegs him sixth in overall stat fit, buoyed by top-10 rankings in par-5 scoring and birdie percentage. While his ball-striking metrics are merely average, Kim offsets that with strong scrambling and a scorching putter on Bentgrass. Coming off a T-28 where one low Saturday cost him a chance to contend, Polzin expects Kim to be both low-owned and live for another top-10 finish, making him an ideal single-entry or cash-game anchor.

Polzin called Sepp Straka a sneaky cornerstone for balanced lineups despite a "disappointing" week prior. Straka sits second in the entire field for overall stat fit, including 7th in birdie-or-better percentage, 11th in ball-striking, and 6th in both greens-in-regulation and par-5 scoring over his last 36 measured rounds. His course history has improved each of the last four years, giving Polzin confidence a win is within range even after his recent victory at the Truist Championship. At a mid-$8K salary Straka gives managers a high floor with legitimate top-5 upside, allowing them to squeeze in Xander plus another upper-mid option without dumpster-diving.

Polzin likes Corey Conners as an outright bet at 33-to-1, noting the Canadian sits second in his model’s recent-form rankings and inside the top-12 for overall stat fit. Conners has gained strokes on approach in nine consecutive starts and ranks sixth on Tour in greens-in-regulation over the last 24 rounds. Although the win has been elusive, he has rattled off finishes of 6th (The Players), 8th, 18th, 8th and T-11 in marquee events, showing he can contend in elite fields. Polzin thinks the Memorial’s emphasis on precise iron play and long par-4 scoring is tailor-made for Conners and suggested pairing him with Xander Schauffele in balanced DFS builds when fading Scheffler.

Eric Polzin pointed out that American books such as DraftKings and FanDuel are still hanging 30- or 31-to-1 numbers on Tommy Fleetwood while Euro-facing shops Betway and Unibet have already trimmed him to 18-to-1. Polzin believes the U.S. price is a clear value because Fleetwood checks every box he wants at Muirfield Village: three top-10 finishes in his past four worldwide starts, top-10 birdie-or-better rate, and a strong par-5 scoring profile that translates at Jack’s Place. His lone start at the Memorial was a T-20 last year, which Polzin views as an encouraging baseline given the limited-field nature of the event. He advised grabbing the 30-1 before it disappears and building DFS cores around Fleetwood in balanced lineups thanks to the sub-$9K DraftKings salary.

Polzin advised fading Justin Thomas this week. Despite Thomas ranking well in the model’s key stats, he enters off a missed cut at the PGA Championship—an event that should have suited him—and has now missed the weekend in two of his past four starts. With Scheffler and Schauffele demanding salary, Polzin does not see the upside in paying a premium for Thomas’s volatile form, especially when safer options like Fleetwood or Connors exist in adjacent price ranges.

Schauffele grades out as the No. 1 ‘specialist’ when Polzin weights the course’s unique characteristics—long par-4s, penal rough, and fast Bentgrass greens. Although his recent form ranks 11th and his overall stat fit 18th, Polzin still views Xander as the second-best golfer in the field. At a sub-$10K salary he slides easily into fair-balanced builds and gives rosters legitimate win equity without paying Scheffler’s premium. Polzin plans to mix in Schauffele on roughly half of the non-Scheffler lineups.

Conners has made 11 consecutive cuts and logged four top-20 finishes over that span, prompting Polzin to label him a ‘made-cut machine.’ The Canadian ranks third in the field in recent form and continues to gain strokes on approach, matching the greens-in-regulation emphasis at Jack’s Place. Polzin likes Conners as a high-floor play for double-ups and single-entry tournaments, especially on rosters built around Scheffler’s hefty salary.

Polzin called Tommy Fleetwood the “next best safe option” behind Scheffler. Fleetwood’s recent form includes a T5 and T10 in his past four starts, and he continues to grade out well in birdie-or-better rate and par-5 scoring—both key stats at Muirfield Village. At a mid-range salary Fleetwood fits naturally in fair-and-balanced constructions, giving lineups a reliable floor without sacrificing upside. Polzin recommended locking him in cash games and sprinkling into GPPs where managers fade Scheffler.

Eric Polzin said Scottie Scheffler should still be the cornerstone of DFS builds and outright cards even at a salary that breaks roster construction. Scheffler has finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd in his last three trips to Muirfield Village and remains, in Polzin’s words, “the only golfer we can fully trust in 2025.” Polzin is planning roughly 50 % exposure to Scheffler on DraftKings and is comfortable firing the 3-to-1 outright number because the field lacks other bankable stars. He acknowledged the lineup squeeze the price tag creates but argued Scheffler’s combination of elite strokes-gained profile and flawless course history justifies the cost.

Polzin doubled down on Ryan Gerard as both a core DFS play and a long-shot outright despite books crashing his odds from 75-1 earlier in the week. Gerard owns a 2nd at the Valero Texas Open and 9th at the Houston Open, plus a fresh top-10 at the PGA Championship. The 9to5 model rates him 5th in recent form and top-10 overall, highlighted by strong approach play and par-4 scoring. Bogey avoidance (38th) and ball-striking (51st) are mediocre, but Polzin believes Gerard’s momentum and proven Texas comfort make him an ideal ceiling swing in balanced builds or as a 66-1 ticket before more steam arrives.

At just above $7,500, Alex Smalley made Polzin’s first-look lineups thanks to a 3rd-best stat-fit grade that features elite iron play. Smalley withdrew here last year but previously posted 4th and 27th, giving him two quality results in three trips. Polzin conceded the WD flags risk but argued the reward outweighs it: Smalley’s three straight made cuts and top-10 ball-striking numbers create true top-10 equity at a mid-range salary. He prefers pairing Smalley with chalkier anchors like Berger or Rai as a tournament pivot.

Polzin highlighted Harry Hall as the sub-$8K name that "stands out a lot" for tournaments. Hall’s putter has powered seven consecutive made cuts and a top-5 at Colonial in 2023. He has also flashed Texas form with 26th at Valero and 18th at the Houston Open. While Hall’s course-specialist rank sits just outside the top tier, Polzin trusts the short-game floor on a layout where bogey avoidance is critical. The Englishman’s volatile off-the-tee profile keeps ownership muted, making him a leverage option in balanced builds that bypass Scheffler.

Polzin labeled Si Woo Kim a classic boom-bust tournament play. The South Korean ranks 6th in the 9to5 stat model and carries top-10 finishes at both the PGA Championship and RBC Heritage this season, yet his recent-form grade is a shaky 53rd. Colonial history is mixed—one WD four years ago balanced by multiple made cuts—so Polzin will monitor ownership: if the field flocks to Kim after his major splash, he will fade, but at sub-15% exposure Kim is on his outright card and firmly in GPP pools thanks to elite tee-to-green numbers on windy, positional tracks.

Eric Polzin moved Aaron Rai into his CORE column, saying the Englishman checks every box for both DFS and an outright sprinkle. Rai owns finishes of 32nd and 12th in two Colonial starts, and Polzin noted those came before the recent spike in form that now has him trending 39->35->23->19 over his last four tournaments. The 9to5 model grades him 4th in course-specialist score and top-10 in overall stat fit, powered by 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 4th in Par-4 scoring, and 30th in ball-striking. Polzin acknowledged a mediocre 59th ranking in bogey avoidance and one poor Texas finish (Houston Open) but views the shortened 45-1 number as proof books respect the ceiling. He is treating Rai as a mid-$8K salary anchor who lets lineups stay balanced while still preserving win equity.