Alongside Justin Fields, Erik Toft is perfectly content landing Dak Prescott in the 10th or 11th round. Prescott finished as QB7 last year in Mike McCarthy’s pass-heavy attack and maintains strong rapport with CeeDee Lamb, yet his ADP still falls outside the top tier. Toft prefers Prescott’s proven 20-point floor at a discount over spending a top-three pick on an elite quarterback, freeing him to stockpile skill talent through the first nine rounds of season-long drafts.

Erik Toft laid out his quarterback plan and pinpointed Justin Fields as the late-round swing he wants in rounds 10–11. Toft argues that spending premium capital on quarterbacks forces drafters to bypass scarce running-back and wide-receiver depth, so he waits until the double-digit rounds where Fields’ ADP sits. Fields’ rushing profile gives him week-winning upside that can rival early-round passers without that opportunity cost, making him a priority in high-stakes season-long leagues.

Erik Toft said he is backing off Jalen Hurts because the Eagles’ short-yardage hierarchy is about to change. Hurts has averaged 14 rushing touchdowns per season across the last three years, but Toft thinks that number is unsustainable after Philadelphia imported AJ Dillon to replace Kenneth Gainwell and complement Saquon Barkley. The 247-pound Dillon, "literally built for the goal-line" in Toft’s words, gives Nick Sirianni a way to preserve both Hurts and Barkley for the postseason instead of leaning on the Tush-Push every time they reach the 1-yard line. With elite pass catchers A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert also demanding touches, Toft expects a noticeable dip in Hurts’ rushing-TD total and has dropped him below the top two fantasy quarterbacks.

Toft is leery of Joe Burrow even though the Bengals are "absolutely loaded" with Chase, Higgins, Brown and Gesicki. Burrow offers virtually no rushing points, which magnifies his injury profile; calf and wrist issues have already cost him chunks of two seasons. The offensive line remains "a work in progress," so another hit-driven absence is in play. Without rushing juice to backstop his weeks, Toft sees Burrow’s range of outcomes skewing toward middling QB1 finishes that don’t justify the early-fourth ADP.

Toft called Tua Tagovailoa a "screaming red flag" in both best-ball and season-long drafts. The concussions are the obvious worry – he joked that a mere blade of grass could knock Tua out – but the bigger concern is the retirement of left tackle Terron Armstead. The Dolphins ranked 24th in adjusted yards per attempt when Armstead sat and top-7 when he played, so losing him permanently is a massive downgrade to pass protection. With Tua’s health already volatile, Toft recommends avoiding him outside of deep superflex builds.

Erik Toft highlighted Trevor Lawrence as the late-round swing that could win leagues. He argued that every quarterback has improved the year after Liam Cohn left the building and believes the same post-Cohn bump is coming for Lawrence, whose ADP is a ridiculous 166 (QB23). Jacksonville added two-way phenom Travis Hunter – expected to play primarily wideout – and second-year breakout Brian Robinson Jr. to replenish the skill group. If Lawrence merely approaches the efficiency Baker Mayfield flashed in Jacksonville last season, Toft thinks a top-12 finish is well within reach, making him a smash in superflex and a high-ceiling backup in 1QB formats.

Erik Toft said Bo Nix is a trap at his current price, projecting only 3,700 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns, 430 rushing yards and four rushing scores in 2025. Those raw totals look fine on paper, but Toft stressed that every defense in the AFC West added pass-rush talent this offseason and Nix "is not really an elite athlete" who can create when protection breaks down. He compared the situation to last year’s CJ Stroud dip, warning that with a full season of tape now available and better divisional secondaries, Nix is far more likely to finish as a low-end QB2 than the mid-range QB1 many drafters are assuming.

Toft expects Kyler Murray’s rushing totals to rebound after Arizona’s coaches told him to "be more elusive with his feet." Murray hasn’t cracked 600 rushing yards since 2020, but Toft thinks that changes if rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. emerges as an X receiver alongside breakout TE Trey McBride. Added rushing plus better weapons make Murray an upside target in the QB8-10 range.

Toft warned that Baker Mayfield's 41-TD, 4,000-yard outlier season is due for regression. He cited the loss of OC Liam Coen and a secretive injury to left tackle Tristan Wirfs, noting Mayfield "isn't as mobile as he used to be." Without elite protection and with natural touchdown pullback, Toft is fading Mayfield outside of two-QB leagues.

Erik Toft called Justin Fields the best value in mid-rounds, noting he’s being drafted as QB14 yet steps into an RPO-heavy Jets offense. Toft reminded listeners that Fields produced 1,143 rushing yards and eight TDs in 2022 and expects him "to be near that" again. Familiarity with college teammate Garrett Wilson as his WR1 gives Fields a smoother passing transition. Toft is happy to take Fields over Jared Goff or Caleb Williams in one-QB leagues.

Erik Toft revealed he placed a small wager on Dak Prescott to win NFL MVP at 50-to-1. He cited Prescott’s proven 4,400-yard, 35-plus-TD seasons, the arrival of George Pickens, and an expected pass-first game plan under Brian Schottenheimer. A depleted running game and potential defensive regression could push Dallas into shootouts, creating the statistical path Prescott needs to enter the MVP conversation.

Erik Toft said Dak Prescott is the best quarterback value after pick 100 and should be drafted ahead of names like Brock Purdy, Justin Fields, and Jared Goff. Toft pointed out that Prescott has already produced three 4,400-yard seasons and 36 TD passes in 2023 (37 in 2021), finishing QB3 the last time he played a full year. With Brian Schottenheimer expected to lean pass-heavy, a shaky backfield of Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders, and the addition of George Pickens opposite CeeDee Lamb, Toft projects massive drop-back volume. He noted Prescott is rostered in only 71 % of leagues and carries an ESPN ADP of 114 (12th round), making him a late-round anchor for single-QB season-long formats.