Esten McLaren advises fading Keith Mitchell, the favorite at the Corales Puntacana Championship (+1600 at bet365). Mitchell enters ranked 98th in OWGR following two recent top-20 results (T18 Texas Children's Houston Open, T12 Valero Texas Open). Despite this momentum, McLaren is concerned by Mitchell's struggles with his putter this season, noting that proficient putting has historically been critical to success at Punta Cana. McLaren also points out that in the history of the Corales event, none of the winners entered the week with odds shorter than +2000. Given historical trends and Mitchell's putting concerns, McLaren indicates he's looking elsewhere for longer-shot winners rather than backing the current tournament favorite.

Esten McLaren recommends betting on Aldrich Potgieter (+5000 at FanDuel) to win the Corales Puntacana Championship. McLaren highlights Potgieter is by far the longest hitter in the field, pointing out the forgiving layout of Corales Golf Club that won't punish his lack of accuracy off the tee. Additionally, Potgieter is averaging 0.21 strokes gained putting per round over his last 16 measured rounds, checking both key statistical criteria for this week's event. Despite it being Potgieter's course debut, McLaren notes past successes of first-timers at alternate events, emphasizing talent tends to shine through in weaker fields. He refers to Potgieter's recent strong performances, including a runner-up finish at the Mexico Open and a T15 at the Farmers Insurance Open, events that similarly rewarded length off the tee. McLaren also points to FanDuel's generous odds of +5000 as value relative to Caesars and BetMGM (+4000).

Esten McLaren recommends not betting on Justin Thomas for the Valspar Championship despite him being the favorite at +1400. McLaren cited Thomas' wildly inconsistent showing at last week's Players Championship, where Thomas tied for 33rd despite tying the course record with a 10-under round of 62 that featured 11 birdies on Friday. This impressive round was offset by an opening round of plus-6, followed by back-to-back rounds of 73 on Saturday and Sunday. McLaren also pointed out that the Copperhead Course is known for severely punishing bad shots, second only to TPC Sawgrass. Given Thomas' shaky recent form and Copperhead's complexity, he's skeptical of trusting Thomas as an outright betting option this week.

Esten McLaren recommends Justin Rose at long-shot odds (+12500 at Caesars) for THE PLAYERS Championship, emphasizing significant value based on course experience and recent form. Rose has logged extensive play at TPC Sawgrass (57 competitive rounds) and owns three career top-10 finishes at the event, including a T-6 two years ago. Though he missed last year's cut, Rose bounced back recently at Bay Hill, finishing tied for eighth thanks to excellent iron play (1.05 strokes gained: approach per round) and elite putting performance (1.28 strokes gained: putting per round). Back up to No. 34 in the OWGR, Rose's current pricing alongside players like Doug Ghim and Christiaan Bezuidenhout is a clear misalignment in McLaren's eyes. He argues Rose's track record and peak form represent huge betting upside, making him well worth a wager at these odds.

Esten McLaren sees Wyndham Clark as significantly undervalued at +6600 odds to win THE PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass. Ranked eighth in the Official World Golf Ranking, Clark was a co-runner-up to Scheffler at this tournament last year and finished T-27 two years ago, demonstrating comfort and performance history at Sawgrass. McLaren highlighted an unusual pricing discrepancy, where competing sportsbooks have Clark as short as +5000, making +6600 at bet365 notably appealing. Though Clark faltered after leading the Arnold Palmer Invitational through one round and ended T-22, McLaren views this as an opportunity, not a setback, believing Clark's talent and past success have been wrongly discounted by the market.

Esten McLaren is backing Corey Conners (+6000) as a sleeper pick to win THE PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass. Conners enters the event fresh off a third-place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, boosting his Official World Golf Ranking to No. 30 and clinching a British Open qualification. Historically solid at Sawgrass, he posted his best finish there with seventh place in 2021 and finished tied for 13th last year. While historically the short game has been Conners' issue at this venue, he notably improved around-the-green and putting metrics last week (0.88 strokes gained around-the-green, 0.71 strokes gained putting at Bay Hill). If he carries this momentum and maintains sharp iron play, McLaren believes he'll be in serious contention deep into the weekend.

Esten McLaren is strongly recommending Collin Morikawa to win THE PLAYERS Championship at +1600 odds on DraftKings, highlighting his excellent recent form in ball-striking metrics. Last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Morikawa led the field, many of whom will also compete at TPC Sawgrass, gaining a remarkable 3.06 strokes per round tee-to-green. He demonstrated excellent approach play, gaining over one stroke per round both on approach and around the green. His second-place finish was largely due to struggles with the putter, suggesting opportunity for positive regression. Morikawa moved from fifth to fourth in the Official World Golf Rankings following his second runner-up finish of 2025. Although Morikawa has struggled historically at TPC Sawgrass, with his best result a T-13 in four appearances and finishing T-45 last year, McLaren sees significant upside based on recent elite performance, the enticing +1600 odds compared to the +1200 at Caesars, and the motivational angle after narrowly missing the victory last week.

Shane Lowry is featured by Esten McLaren as an appealing outright winner pick at +4000 via Caesars for THE PLAYERS Championship. McLaren highlights Lowry's consistent record at TPC Sawgrass, where he has made four straight cuts, including an eighth-place finish in 2021. Lowry enters fresh off a seventh-place finish in last week's Signature Event despite losing strokes off the tee—a testament to his short-game strengths, notably gaining 0.97 strokes putting. Given the challenging greens at Sawgrass and his recent putting form, Esten expects Lowry's short-game prowess to provide him significant upside at these odds, which offer better return potential compared to market-low odds of +3300 at BetMGM.

Esten McLaren recommends Keegan Bradley at longshot odds of +5500 via FanDuel to win THE PLAYERS Championship. Bradley comes off an impressive performance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, carding an 8-under 64 in Sunday's final round to finish tied for fifth, his best result of 2025. Bradley led the Arnold Palmer field in strokes gained approach (1.54 per round) and ranked seventh overall in strokes gained tee-to-green (1.87). His performance elevated him to 11th in the Official World Golf Rankings. Bradley also boasts strong prior history at TPC Sawgrass, highlighted by a fifth-place finish in 2022. McLaren emphasizes Bradley's significant upside relative to his long odds and encourages betting on his current form and course fit.

Esten McLaren is backing Xander Schauffele at +2200 via BetMGM to win the THE PLAYERS Championship, identifying value due to Schauffele shaking off injury-related rust in his two starts of 2025. After winning two majors last season, Schauffele has struggled early this year, with finishes of T-30 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and T-40 at last week's Arnold Palmer Invitational. Despite these middling results, Schauffele showcased good signs by gaining strokes off the tee and on approach for the full tournament last week, including a solid 3-under final round on Sunday. His prior strong performance at TPC Sawgrass, finishing co-runner-up in last year's edition, adds to the appeal, leading McLaren to argue Schauffele's odds carry clear betting value as he regains form.