FPTS Staff tagged Jalen Hurts as a fair-price "target" at his 36.0 ADP (QB4), arguing that a likely uptick in pass volume will restore his league-winning ceiling. Despite the Eagles’ four-year-low 47.5% pass rate in 2024, Hurts still produced 21.7 FPG (QB5) in 15 games and 22.9 FPG in his 14 full contests before a Week-16 concussion torpedoed many fantasy playoff runs. He ranked second only to Lamar Jackson in fantasy points per drop-back (0.74) and, even with his career-low 20.7% designed-run share, still led all QBs in rushing TDs for the fourth straight season. His scramble efficiency (9.3 YPC on 39 attempts) was the third-best mark in the Fantasy Points Data era, and the "tush-push" remains legal, fueling a projection of 11.4 rushing scores. The staff also notes he’ll operate behind Scott DeBenedetto’s No. 1-ranked offensive line and throw to an elite WR duo in what should be a more balanced 2025 offense. Hurts has finished top-six in FPG four years running; locking him in as the fourth QB off the board captures that stability with room for upside if passing volume rebounds.

FPTS Staff labeled Jayden Daniels a clear "league-winner" and urged drafters to grab him at his 31.0 ADP (QB3) even if it means paying a slight premium. The staff reminded readers that Daniels finished 2024 as the QB6 at 21.5 fantasy points per game (FPG), or 23.7 FPG after removing two injury‐shortened outings. His rookie resume already includes records for rushing yards (891), completion percentage (69%), and team scoring (28.5 PPG), plus postseason rookie records for passing yards (822), passing TDs (5), and rushing yards (135). Daniels generated the second-most rushing FPG (7.4) league-wide while leading all quarterbacks in scrambles (72) and scramble yards (577). Efficiency was there too—6th in catchable-pass rate (77.5%) and 6th-lowest turnover-worthy throw rate (1.9%) among 46 qualifying QBs. Kliff Kingsbury’s uptempo attack produced an NFL-best 66.0 plays per game, and Washington doubled down by trading for WR Deebo Samuel and LT Laremy Tunsil to maximize Daniels’ rookie-contract window. The only mild caution is Terry McLaurin’s trade request, which could dent ceiling outcomes. Even so, Fantasy Points projects a position-leading 341.5 total points (22.8 FPG), making Daniels a high-leverage third-round pick in season-long and best-ball formats.

FPTS Staff called Bryce Young the ideal last-round swing after his late-2024 surge: 10 straight games with a TD, a 4.7 % TD rate (up from 1.9 %) and finishes of QB2 and QB1 in Weeks 16-18. Over that span he ranked first in hero-throw rate (7.8 %), fourth in scrambles (30) and eighth in deep-ball rate (14.1 %). Dave Canales imported a downfield, play-action attack and just handed Young a 6'4"/219 red-zone alpha in eighth-overall pick Tetairoa McMillan, who scored 18 times in his final 25 college games. Young’s legs are a hidden bonus—he averaged 3.8 carries, 26 rushing yards and five rushing TDs over his last eight starts. Drafted at QB23 (ADP 186), the staff believes he has an "outside shot" at a top-12 finish if the scrambling sticks and McMillan accelerates the passing game.

FPTS Staff urged drafters to grab Trevor Lawrence at his QB21 ADP (174 overall), arguing he finally has the coordinator to break out. New play-caller Liam Coen just coaxed 4,500 yards, 41 TDs, 7.9 YPA and 22.6 fantasy PPG out of Baker Mayfield; Lawrence sits on a career 3.4 % TD rate and 6.8 YPA but logged 16.9 FPG in nine healthy games last year (QB15 pace). Coen wants him to run more—Mayfield doubled his career high to 378 rush yards under Coen, while Lawrence averaged only 1.3 scrambles in 2024 despite career marks of 3.9 rushes and 18.1 yards. Add the arrivals of 6'4" speedster Brian Thomas and two-way phenom Travis Hunter, plus a fresh five-year extension that cements organizational faith, and the staff believes a top-10 fantasy finish is firmly in play if the TD rate climbs even to league average.

FPTS Staff moved Mason Taylor back onto their target list after he missed just six practices with a high-ankle sprain and immediately reclaimed all first-team snaps. The 6'5"/255 TE ran a route on 89 % of Aaron Rodgers’ drop-backs before the injury and already owns the red-zone trust—three end-zone targets in the preseason opener. Given the Jets’ wide-receiver depth concerns behind Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams, the staff believes Taylor can sneak into the low-end TE1 mix by mid-season.

FPTS Staff highlighted Tory Horton as a final-round dart after the rookie "turned heads" all camp, earning first-team reps and reportedly out-targeting Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first preseason game. At 6'2"/195 with 4.44 wheels, Horton profiles as the vertical complement Seattle lacked once Tyler Lockett moved inside last year. The staff noted that new OC Ryan Grubb’s uptempo scheme pushed three WRs over 650 yards at Washington and expect similar three-wide rates in Seattle, giving Horton splash-play and spike-week appeal.

FPTS Staff advised scooping Keaton Mitchell at the end of drafts after he proved "completely back" from his December 2023 ACL tear. Beat writers clocked the burner at 21.5 mph on a preseason swing pass, matching his in-game top speed pre-injury. With Baltimore yet to name a true change-of-pace back behind Derrick Henry, the staff believes Mitchell’s explosiveness and pass-game chops give him weekly flex upside if he simply reclaims last year’s 9.0 YPC gadget role—and league-winning upside should Henry break down.

FPTS Staff said Will Shipley should be stashed 150+ picks into drafts because he worked ahead of A.J. Dillon in the Eagles’ preseason opener, a signal that Nick Sirianni already trusts the rookie in the change-of-pace and hurry-up packages that normally belong to the RB2. Shipley’s combination of 4.46 speed and 55-catch college résumé gives him a three-down ceiling if D’Andre Swift misses time, making him, in the staff’s words, “one of the best handcuffs available in deeper drafts.”

FPTS Staff recommended steering clear of Kaleb Johnson after he looked slow and sluggish in his first preseason appearance. They believe the running back’s adjustment to NFL speed is proving steeper than expected, projecting minimal early-season impact and questioning whether he can earn meaningful touches at his current draft price.

FPTS Staff advised caution on Caleb Williams, noting that training-camp 'vibes have been a little off' and that the entire Bears offense may take time to gel under new head coach/play-caller Ben Johnson. With uncertainty surrounding how quickly the scheme will click, they view Williams as an avoid at current draft cost unless the market sharply discounts him.

FPTS Staff labeled Jared Goff an overvalue at ADP 91 (QB9) with only a QB20 projection. They emphasized that Goff’s 2024 breakout—career-best 6.9% TD rate, 72.4% completion, 8.6 YPA, and a QB7 fantasy finish—coincided with Ben Johnson’s play-calling. Johnson’s departure to Chicago leaves the offense to John Morton, whose lone stint as an NFL OC (2017 Jets) ranked 24th in points and 28th in yards. Without Johnson in 2021 Goff mustered just 6.6 YPA and a 3.8% TD rate; with Johnson from 2022-24 he averaged 7.9 YPA and 5.5% TDs. Because Goff offers zero rushing floor, the analysts argue he needs another near-perfect efficiency season simply to crack low-end QB1 range, making his current price tag a ceiling bet they are unwilling to make.

FPTS Staff called Baker Mayfield an overvalue at his NFFC ADP of 67 (QB7) versus their QB10 projection. They warned that nearly every 2024 efficiency spike looks unsustainable: TD rate ballooned to 7.2% from a 4.6% career norm, YPA jumped to 7.9 after five straight sub-7.3 seasons, and completion percentage leapt to 71.4%. Mayfield lost back-to-back play-callers Liam Coen and Dave Canales to head-coaching jobs and now leans on first-time OC Josh Grizzard while All-Pro LT Tristan Wirfs is expected to miss the first four games. The staff noted Mayfield already posted the seventh-worst pressure-to-sack ratio (25.3%) even with the league’s third-lowest pressure rate (24.2%), so protection issues could magnify regression. They also view last year’s 378 rushing yards—more than double his previous career best—as unlikely to repeat. With multiple negative signals stacking up, they recommend passing on Mayfield in season-long drafts unless his price falls significantly.

FPTS Staff dubbed Jared Goff an OVERVALUE at ADP 95 (QB9) versus their QB18 projection. Goff’s 2024 breakout—QB7 overall, 19.8 FPG, and career bests in TD rate (6.9%), completion percentage (72.4%), and YPA (8.6)—coincided with OC Ben Johnson guiding an offense that averaged an NFL-best 29.0 points per game from 2022-24. Johnson is gone to coach the Bears, replaced by John Morton, whose lone NFL coordinating stint (2017 Jets) ranked 24th in scoring and 28th in yardage. The staff noted that in Goff’s last season without Johnson (2021) he managed only 6.6 YPA with a 3.8% TD rate, and because he offers virtually no rushing upside he must maintain elite passing efficiency just to sniff QB1 territory. Expecting that in a downgraded scheme is betting on his absolute ceiling, so the staff advised fading Goff at his current draft cost.

FPTS Staff labeled Baker Mayfield an OVERVALUE at ADP 71 (QB7) while projecting him for QB9. They argued that virtually every efficiency metric from his 2024 QB4 campaign screams regression: TD rate spiked from 4.6% across his first six seasons to 7.2%, YPA jumped to 7.9 after five straight years under 7.3, and completion percentage soared from 64.3% to 71.4%. Mayfield now loses back-to-back playcallers (Liam Coen, Dave Canales) to head-coaching jobs, handing the scheme to first-time NFL OC Josh Grizzard. All-Pro LT Tristan Wirfs is expected to miss at least four games, a major blow for a quarterback who already posted the league’s seventh-worst pressure-to-sack rate (25.3%) but benefited from the third-lowest overall pressure rate (24.2%). The staff also called last year’s 378 rushing yards—more than double his previous career high—unsustainable. With multiple regression flags and a weaker coaching/OL environment, they recommended passing on Mayfield at his current price in redraft leagues.

FPTS Staff added Jake Ferguson to their values list once the Cowboys guaranteed him $30 million, interpreting the extension as proof he is entrenched as a featured piece of Mike McCarthy’s passing game. The commitment signals no imminent committee at tight end and should cement the healthy target share he flashed down the stretch last year (20% over Weeks 12-18). Dallas ranked top-five in red-zone pass rate in 2024, and Ferguson already led the team with 11 end-zone targets, a profile the staff believes will carry over. Given an ADP well outside the top-10 tight ends, they view him as a low-cost way to chase 90-plus targets and back-end TE1 production while others pay up for bigger names with similar volatility.

FPTS Staff categorized Jalen Hurts as a "target" at his 40.0 ADP (QB4) and argued he is priced correctly but carries league-winning upside if the Eagles tilt slightly back toward the pass. Even with Philadelphia’s four-year low 47.5% pass rate and a concussion that wiped out Week 16, Hurts still delivered 21.7 FPG (QB5) and 22.9 FPG in his 14 full outings. Efficiency remained outrageous: 0.74 fantasy points per drop-back, second only to Lamar Jackson. Designed runs accounted for 20.7% of his attempts — his lowest rate yet but still higher than any other QB — while he racked up 9.3 yards per scramble (39/365). The famed tush-push helped him post double-digit rushing TDs for a fourth straight year, and their projection (11.4 rush TDs) keeps him top-four at the position. The staff notes he plays behind the site’s No. 1 graded offensive line and still throws to an elite WR duo, but expects a more balanced attack to unlock extra drop-backs. Bottom line: four consecutive top-six FPG seasons plus bankable goal-line usage make Hurts a rock-solid selection at cost with legitimate overall QB1 upside if volume bounces back.