Garion Thorne advises betting on the Detroit Tigers moneyline (-115) as slight road favorites against the Milwaukee Brewers. He notes Detroit's surprising offensive surge, winning 10 of their last 14 games and ranking seventh in MLB with a 116 wRC+. Tigers starter Jack Flaherty has been stellar, posting a 1.62 ERA, 2.73 FIP, and elite strikeout metrics (31.8% strikeout rate, 11.9% swinging strike rate) through his first 16.1 innings. Impressively, two of Flaherty’s starts came against strong lineups like the Dodgers and Yankees, showcasing his effectiveness against top competition. Conversely, Milwaukee is deploying Quinn Priester, recently acquired amidst injury issues after failing to make Boston's roster, who has struggled at the MLB level with a career ERA of 6.02 and a 5.70 xERA in his first Brewers appearance. Thorne emphasizes this significant pitching disparity as key reasoning for backing Detroit.

Garion Thorne recommended backing Garrett Crochet and the Red Sox run-line (-1.5), highlighting Crochet's strong recent performance including an eight-inning scoreless outing against the Orioles. Crochet owns a stellar 1.38 ERA, 1.92 FIP, and has yet to allow a homer in this young season across 13 innings. Thorne emphasized Toronto's weak offense as a key driver, noting the Blue Jays' league-low five home runs and poor .106 ISO (third-worst in MLB). Given Toronto's reliance on stringing multiple hits ("station-to-station") and Crochet's high strikeout ability (.216 opponent batting average), Thorne sees another effective outing from Crochet. Additionally, Boston holds an elite .316 batting average and 137 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season, providing further confidence they'll bounce back offensively against Jays starter and journeyman Easton Lucas, who carries a career MLB ERA of 7.71.