Clark placed 0.16 units on Tom Kim at +12500, labeling the wager another "buy-the-dip" special. Despite a disappointing season, the 23-year-old already owns three PGA TOUR wins and thrives on short, positional tracks with Bent/Poa greens—the exact profile of Silverado Resort. Evidence: T-7 at the 2025 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (California) and a playoff loss to Scottie Scheffler at the 2024 Travelers Championship, both signature events on tight, wedge-heavy courses. Clark notes that Kim’s statistical strengths mirror Silverado’s key demands (precision irons, reliable flatstick) and trusts the underlying talent more than the recent results. With triple-digit odds in the strongest fall field to date, Clark sees Kim as a live longshot for an outright or top-finishing ticket.

Geoff Clark grabbed Sahith Theegala at a juicy +12500 for 0.16 units, calling it a classic buy-low. Theegala missed chunks of the season with two separate injuries, yet Clark argues no one owns better course history—Theegala captured the 2023 edition (then the Fortinet) and remains a Silverado horse. A Southern California native and Pepperdine product, Theegala is comfortable on Bent/Poa greens and resort-style layouts. His limited 2025 highlights (T-17 Genesis Invitational, solo 3rd at the 2024 TOUR Championship) reassure Clark that the talent is intact now that Theegala says he’s healthy. With course familiarity, California roots, and triple-digit odds, Clark believes the value on Theegala to win or place is too large to ignore.

Geoff Clark fired a full-unit outright bet on Sam Burns at +2000 (FanDuel). Burns slotted No. 2 in Clark’s Betsperts Golf model—trailing only World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler—because he dominates the two metrics Clark deems most predictive at Silverado Resort: putting and wedge play. Over his last 50 measured rounds Burns leads this field in Strokes Gained: Putting and ranks ninth on approaches from 100-150 yards. Driving accuracy is usually Burns’ bugaboo, yet Clark downplayed that flaw noting Silverado’s forgiving rough, just two holes with water, and minimal penalty unless a tee shot ends up behind a tree. Clark also framed Burns as the "most due" player without a 2025 win: he slept on the 54-hole lead at the U.S. Open (finished T-7), lipped a six-footer to lose a playoff at the RBC Canadian Open, and still logged 10 top-20 finishes this season. Course-fit boxes are checked as well—T-7 in his lone Silverado start (2020) while gaining strokes everywhere, eighth in this field for total SG in California, and seventh in SG: Putting on Bent/Poa greens that mirror Napa’s surfaces. A five-time TOUR winner who shines exactly where Silverado demands, Burns is Clark’s headline play for a breakthrough victory.

Geoff Clark grabbed Chris Gotterup at +4500, stating his fair number is +3000 given current form. Gotterup ranks 2nd in the field in total Strokes Gained over his last 20 rounds—trailing only World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler—thanks to a win at the 2025 Genesis Scottish Open followed by a solo 3rd at The Open. He sits 2nd in SG: Putting over the last 16 rounds and prefers Bermudagrass, the surface awaiting at Southwind. Driver usage at this course runs 20% above TOUR average, dovetailing with Gotterup’s strengths: 7th in SG: Off-the-Tee this season, 3rd in driving distance, and 3rd in SG: Ball-Striking over the last 36 rounds per BetTheNumber.com. Clark argues the former Haskins and Jack Nicklaus Award winner can overpower the layout and ride a sizzling putter, making the +4500 outright a value play in a 69-man field.

Geoff Clark fired on Sam Burns at +4000, leaning on both numbers and narrative. A Louisiana native and LSU alum, Burns is accustomed to the oppressive August heat at TPC Southwind and is one of the TOUR’s elite Bermudagrass putters. Over the last 36 rounds he is tied with Ludvig Aberg for 1st in total driving, a blend of distance and accuracy that matters on a course Clark calls "sneaky long with a ton of water." Burns has gained strokes in ball-striking in seven consecutive starts and in all five of his prior St. Jude appearances. His Memphis history includes a T5 in 2024 and a playoff loss in 2021. Recent close calls—a playoff defeat at the 2025 RBC Canadian Open and surrendering a 54-hole lead at the U.S. Open—have Clark saying the five-time winner is "due." Burns already owns three victories on southern crossover tracks such as Valspar and Sanderson Farms, and a win here would likely cement a Ryder Cup berth. Clark views +4000 as juicy for a player with Burns’ course fit and form.

Geoff Clark bet Hideki Matsuyama at +3500 to win the St. Jude, calling the number "disrespectful" for the defending champion. Matsuyama led last year by five after 54 holes, double-bogeyed 15 on Sunday, then birdied the final two holes to capture the title despite losing 3.3 strokes around the green, normally his greatest strength. Clark noted Hideki has gained strokes putting in four straight visits to TPC Southwind and in eight of his last nine starts overall. Although Matsuyama has struggled to find fairways this summer, he ranked ninth in driving accuracy during a T19 finish at last week’s Wyndham after an early out-of-bounds tee ball led to a triple. He sits 2nd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 20 rounds, per Betsperts Golf. Clark believes that if Matsuyama keeps the ball in the short grass and continues his recent iron and putting form, he can pull off a rare back-to-back victory in Memphis at attractive odds.