Gianni the Greek is taking plus money on Green Bay to miss the postseason. Public bettors have the Packers top-five in tickets TO make the playoffs, but VR sees several looming regression signs: a top-10 hardest schedule, last year’s third-best turnover differential (a luck-driven stat), and exceptional injury fortune that rarely repeats. With Jordan Love hype inflating weekly spreads, Gianni expects Green Bay to be overpriced and believes they ultimately fall short of the playoff cut line.

Gianni the Greek called Dallas a prime fade and a bet to MISS the playoffs. He highlighted the NFL’s third-worst point differential in 2024, only two home wins, and a top-10 toughest 2025 schedule. Add a brand-new head coach, OC and DC, new offensive pieces, and Dak Prescott’s durability concerns, and VR sees too many red flags. Betting splits reinforce the stance: the Cowboys sit top-five in tickets to make the postseason but top-five in money on them to miss, a sharp–square divide Gianni wants to ride by fading Dallas.

Gianni the Greek loves Tampa Bay at even money to capture a fifth straight NFC South title. The Bucs won 10 games in 2024, posted a +117 point differential (sixth best league-wide) and face a top-10 easiest schedule. Their offense scored over 500 points behind Baker Mayfield, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, and a rookie wideout Amica adds another weapon. He expects defensive improvement and sees the rest of the division rebuilding: Atlanta starts a rookie QB, Carolina is two years into a new regime, and New Orleans has glaring holes on both sides. Gianni estimates a 60% win probability, making even money a strong ROI.

Gianni the Greek highlighted a sharp fade on Dallas playoff futures: public bettors are hammering "Yes, make playoffs" at +175, giving it a top-five ticket count, yet professionals are laying -225 on "No." He interprets the split as smart money doubting a team with an overhauled coaching staff, a brutal schedule, and limited home-field edge. His recommendation is to follow the money and bet Dallas to miss the postseason.

Gianni the Greek pointed out that sharp bettors were backing San Francisco futures even when they started 2-2 last year. Despite finishing with only six wins and the sixth-worst turnover differential, the 49ers return Purdy, McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle behind a solid offensive line, keep their defensive coordinator, and now own the league’s easiest strength-of-schedule. Gianni added that the Rams won the division with a negative point differential, Arizona still cannot win on the road, and Seattle is undergoing massive personnel changes. He sees major positive regression and values the Niners at +150.

Gianni the Greek said the Eagles are still worth a divisional bet at -145 even with the inevitable Super Bowl-hangover regression. Philadelphia won 14 games last season, brings back 10 of 11 offensive starters and fielded a defense that allowed only 303 points (second fewest to the Chargers at 301). He noted that no team has repeated in the NFC East since 2014, yet the rest of the division looks shaky—Dallas overhauled its entire coaching staff and faces a top-10 schedule, Washington is due for a step back after an outlier year, and the Giants won just three games while still battling offensive-line and quarterback inconsistency. Gianni concluded that, barring a catastrophic quarterback injury, the Eagles win this division two out of every three times, giving the -145 price plenty of value.

Gianni the Greek was comfortable laying the chalk on the Philadelphia Eagles to win the NFC East again, reminding bettors they posted 14 wins last season and even moderate regression still leaves them ahead of a division where the Giants managed only three victories and Dallas seven. He acknowledged the NFC East has not seen a repeat champ since 2014 but believes Philly’s roster balance and coaching continuity break that cycle. Every team in the division faces a demanding schedule, so he trusts the side that has already shown the highest ceiling.

Gianni the Greek laid the short price on the Detroit Lions (+135) to repeat as NFC North champions, arguing probability outweighs the thirst for plus money. He emphasized that last year the North posted an NFL-record combined +384 point differential and 45 wins, and Detroit was top-5 in the conference in point differential thanks to balance on both sides of the ball. The offense remains stacked—Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta behind a promising young interior line—while Dan Campbell returns to keep culture intact. Gianni expects rivals to slide: the Packers were 1-5 in-division and buoyed by a top-3 turnover margin while now drawing a top-10 schedule; Minnesota faces a top-5 schedule with a first-year signal-caller; Chicago has a rookie QB and coaching turnover after just five wins. Coordinator losses are "priced in," making Detroit his highest-probability ticket.

Gianni the Greek zeroed in on Detroit at 10-1 to win the 2026 Super Bowl. He said the Lions finished 2024 as his single highest power-rated team—favored on a neutral field over every opponent—and sees no reason they cannot carry that level into 2025. Gianni expects Detroit to 'easily win the division,' giving them a playoff berth with possible home games. If the roster simply stays healthy and a few breaks finally go their way in January, he believes the 10-1 ticket has a strong chance to cash. He acknowledged small sprinkles on the 49ers and Chargers but declared the Lions his primary futures position.

Gianni the Greek said he grabbed the Colorado Rockies first-five team-total under 2.5 runs on Thursday. He pointed to Giants spot-starter Burt Song allowing more than 2.5 runs only once in his last four outings and rarely sticking around long enough for a third trip through the order. Gianni also highlighted a brutal travel spot for Colorado— the club played a very late game last night and now turns around for an early afternoon start— a pattern that historically depresses run production. With a sharp early arm on the mound and groggy Rockies bats, Gianni projects one, maybe two Colorado runs through five at most.

Gianni the Greek recommended betting Will Warren over 1.5 walks tonight. Warren ranks 11th-worst among current MLB starters with roughly 4.5 BB/9, and that figure has ballooned above five per nine over his last three starts. Gianni’s projection model spits out 2.3 walks for Warren against a Royals lineup that sits top-10 in chase-rate discipline. He will only play the over at 1.5— if books move to 2.5 he would pass.

Gianni the Greek played Yadier DelValle by finish at +110. He reminded listeners that Matthews has been knocked out in both of his UFC appearances and is not UFC-caliber. DelVallel landed 120+ significant strikes in his Contender Series bout and packs legit power, so Gianni expects sustained pressure to crack Matthews inside the distance. Taking plus money on a stoppage rather than laying DelValle’s heavy moneyline is how Gianni is attacking the mismatch.

Gianni the Greek targeted multiple ways to back Los Angeles, calling Dodgers TEAM TOTAL OVER 5.5 and Dodgers -1 run line his preferred angles. He ranks A’s starter Beto 24th out of the 30 pitchers in his curved model and pegs Oakland’s bullpen dead LAST in current form, while the Dodgers lineup sits fourth in run-production metrics and is fully healthy. On the flip side, L.A.’s relief corps is rested because their premium arms (Tanner Scott, etc.) were saved for this planned bullpen game behind swingman Sauer. With two top-six offenses but only one competent pen, Gianni expects the Dodgers to torch Beto early and keep adding on against Oakland’s shaky middle relievers, easily clearing six runs and covering the -1 at roughly -145.

Gianni the Greek recommended attacking the Rangers team-total UNDER instead of betting the full 7.5 game total. He reminded listeners that Texas has "not been run producing very well" and now faces Hunter Brown, whom his proprietary scout-style rankings grade as the No. 1 starting pitcher in MLB. Gianni believes books continue to inflate the Rangers’ offense because of name value, creating value on a reduced team-total number that should appear around 3.5. With Brown’s splitter generating a 38 % whiff rate and Houston’s bullpen carrying a sub-3.00 ERA over its last 30 innings, he expects limited scoring chances and likes the under as the cleanest way to fade Texas bats.

Gianni the Greek believes oddsmakers are overvaluing Jacob deGrom and giving bettors a rare opportunity to back Houston. Using his former-scout grading system he has Hunter Brown ranked as MLB’s No. 1 pitcher and Tarik Skubal No. 2, while deGrom sits around 16th. Offensively he grades the Astros eighth and the Rangers 16th, and rates the bullpens roughly equal. With edges on the mound and at the plate, Gianni suggests Astros moneyline, +1.5 runs, or first-five wagers, and even likes a Texas team-total under in a game he expects to be a low-scoring pitching duel.

Gianni the Greek recommended laying a half-run with the Blue Jays in the first five innings. He pointed out that Kevin Gausman owns three quality starts in three home outings this season, while Tampa starter Aaron Luttrell sports a 5.2 FIP that ranks in the bottom 10 among qualified pitchers. Gianni expects Gausman’s strike-throwing and splitter usage to neutralize Tampa’s left-handed pop, giving Toronto an edge in the first half before bullpens become a factor.

Gianni the Greek backs Lee Hodges at +225 odds for a top 20 finish at the Valero Texas Open. Hodges has quietly shown excellent consistency, missing only one cut in his last ten starts and securing six top-20 showings, including a T-11 at the recent Houston Open. Gianni cites significant improvements in Hodges’ putting performance, shifting from consistently negative to fourth-best in strokes gained putting per round in this field. His driving accuracy and solid iron play further limits the risks of high scores, a key factor in maintaining steady leaderboard positions. Gianni confidently expects Hodges' accurate tee shots and newfound putting confidence to translate into a profitable top-20 finish bet.

Gianni the Greek identifies Ryan Fox as an enticing 70-1 outright winner bet for the Valero Texas Open. Fox recently finished T33 at the Players Championship, a far more challenging field compared to this week's event. Gianni emphasized Fox's strengths—his excellent driving and iron play—and noted significant improvements in his putting at the Houston Open, gaining nearly two and a half strokes on the field. He added that these greens at TPC San Antonio are easier to manage than higher-profile courses like Sawgrass or PGA National, reducing Fox's known putting weaknesses. Considering the tournament typically isn't an ultra-low scoring, birdie-heavy event, Fox's consistent tee-to-green play, combined with improved putting, gives him potential as a dark horse for an outright victory.

Gianni the Greek strongly endorses Ryan Fox at +320 for a top 20 finish at the Valero Texas Open, pointing to Fox's recent golfing performance and consistency. Fox delivered impressive finishes lately, securing a top-20 at the Players Championship in a notably stronger field and following it up with a T15 at the Houston Open. Gianni highlighted Fox's steady, risk-averse approach—keeping himself safely in play off the tee, consistently hitting greens in regulation, and strategically avoiding three putts. His reliable wedge game perfectly aligns with TPC San Antonio's demands. Given the expected low-scoring nature of the course (unlikely to require overly aggressive, birdie-heavy performances), Fox's style greatly enhances his high-value odds for top 20 placement.

Gianni the Greek maintains confidence in Alex Smalley despite consecutive missed cuts, attributing the poor results mostly to isolated incidents and unfortunate stretches rather than sustained bad form. A single bad break on the 18th hole significantly impacted one tournament, while a difficult span of five holes resulted in his missed cut last week, bogeying and double bogeying where he normally excels. Prior to these incidents, Smalley had been delivering some of his career-best golf performance. Gianni feels strongly this sets up a rebound scenario, choosing Smalley at -115 odds in a tournament matchup against Ryan Gerard, highlighting Gerard's over-reliance on his wedge play and struggles around the greens as factors in Smalley's favor.

Gianni the Greek highlights Alex Smalley as a valuable longshot play at the Valero Texas Open despite recent missed cuts. Smalley’s shortfalls were largely attributable to unlucky moments on just a few holes, rather than sustained poor play. Prior to these breaks, Smalley demonstrated strong tournament performances consistently. Gianni sees substantial betting value at high odds, given Smalley’s overall ability, underlying form, and a good fit for conditions at this event, emphasizing Smalley’s potential for significant upside as a betting selection.