Gianni the Greek backs Lee Hodges at +225 odds for a top 20 finish at the Valero Texas Open. Hodges has quietly shown excellent consistency, missing only one cut in his last ten starts and securing six top-20 showings, including a T-11 at the recent Houston Open. Gianni cites significant improvements in Hodges’ putting performance, shifting from consistently negative to fourth-best in strokes gained putting per round in this field. His driving accuracy and solid iron play further limits the risks of high scores, a key factor in maintaining steady leaderboard positions. Gianni confidently expects Hodges' accurate tee shots and newfound putting confidence to translate into a profitable top-20 finish bet.

Gianni the Greek identifies Ryan Fox as an enticing 70-1 outright winner bet for the Valero Texas Open. Fox recently finished T33 at the Players Championship, a far more challenging field compared to this week's event. Gianni emphasized Fox's strengths—his excellent driving and iron play—and noted significant improvements in his putting at the Houston Open, gaining nearly two and a half strokes on the field. He added that these greens at TPC San Antonio are easier to manage than higher-profile courses like Sawgrass or PGA National, reducing Fox's known putting weaknesses. Considering the tournament typically isn't an ultra-low scoring, birdie-heavy event, Fox's consistent tee-to-green play, combined with improved putting, gives him potential as a dark horse for an outright victory.

Gianni the Greek strongly endorses Ryan Fox at +320 for a top 20 finish at the Valero Texas Open, pointing to Fox's recent golfing performance and consistency. Fox delivered impressive finishes lately, securing a top-20 at the Players Championship in a notably stronger field and following it up with a T15 at the Houston Open. Gianni highlighted Fox's steady, risk-averse approach—keeping himself safely in play off the tee, consistently hitting greens in regulation, and strategically avoiding three putts. His reliable wedge game perfectly aligns with TPC San Antonio's demands. Given the expected low-scoring nature of the course (unlikely to require overly aggressive, birdie-heavy performances), Fox's style greatly enhances his high-value odds for top 20 placement.

Gianni the Greek maintains confidence in Alex Smalley despite consecutive missed cuts, attributing the poor results mostly to isolated incidents and unfortunate stretches rather than sustained bad form. A single bad break on the 18th hole significantly impacted one tournament, while a difficult span of five holes resulted in his missed cut last week, bogeying and double bogeying where he normally excels. Prior to these incidents, Smalley had been delivering some of his career-best golf performance. Gianni feels strongly this sets up a rebound scenario, choosing Smalley at -115 odds in a tournament matchup against Ryan Gerard, highlighting Gerard's over-reliance on his wedge play and struggles around the greens as factors in Smalley's favor.

Gianni the Greek highlights Alex Smalley as a valuable longshot play at the Valero Texas Open despite recent missed cuts. Smalley’s shortfalls were largely attributable to unlucky moments on just a few holes, rather than sustained poor play. Prior to these breaks, Smalley demonstrated strong tournament performances consistently. Gianni sees substantial betting value at high odds, given Smalley’s overall ability, underlying form, and a good fit for conditions at this event, emphasizing Smalley’s potential for significant upside as a betting selection.