Grant Neiffer sees Jake Berger as significantly undervalued in terms of home run potential, emphasizing Berger's second-half surge last year after overcoming injuries. Berger hit 10 home runs across 73 first-half games hindered by injury, then exploded for 19 homers in just 64 games in the second half—a pace projecting to around 50 home runs over a full season. Berger is now moving from Miami to Texas, providing a major upgrade in ballpark power factor, making his current +500 odds to homer even more appealing. Although facing Garrett Crochet, who's around league average (projected to give up about one home run per nine innings to righties and may exit early), Berger's profile and improved surroundings greatly outweigh the matchup concerns. Neiffer confidently projects Berger for 35-40 home runs this season, making him a clear betting value, especially early before sportsbooks adjust.

Grant Neiffer strongly recommended Heliot Ramos to hit a home run at +700 odds on opening day against Hunter Greene in Cincinnati, calling it the most valuable home-run bet on the slate. Ramos hit 22 HR last year in just around 120 games, projecting closer to 32 if extrapolated over a full 162-game schedule, especially boosted by hitting in hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark rather than his usual home park in San Francisco, MLB's worst park for right-handed power. Neiffer believes Hunter Greene's previous home-run allowance (just 0.7 HR/9 last year) was fluky given a career average around 1.7 HR/9. Sean Zerillo backed Neiffer's points, noting Ramos' barrel metrics and Statcast confirming he'd have hit 33 HR instead of 22 if he'd played all games in Cincinnati last year. Both analysts agree Ramos' odds at +700 are extremely mispriced, advising betting immediately before lines adjust.

Grant Neiffer pinpointed Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s home run prop at +650 as remarkably undervalued. Emphasizing Guerrero's proven elite power, hitting 30 homers last season and 48 four years ago, he argues these odds make little sense. While Guerrero previously displayed perceived home-road splits, last year split evenly with 15 home runs both home and away, indicating no significant disadvantage in Toronto. Facing Zach Eflin of Baltimore presents a near-average matchup at worst, and while Baltimore's bullpen is strong, Neiffer argues Guerrero’s raw power profile and predictable dome environment provide extreme value at current odds. Neiffer called the number 'ridiculous' given Guerrero's consistent power production, advocating strongly that such mispriced value at +650 is an immediate bet without hesitation.

Grant Neiffer identified Matt Chapman as providing good value to hit a home run at +370 odds against Reds pitcher Hunter Greene on opening day. Neiffer explained Chapman's notable power upside, referencing his previous 36-homer season in Oakland. He further highlighted Chapman's refreshed approach and improved performance last season (27 HR in San Francisco) and pointed out an enormous environmental upgrade for Chapman hitting in Cincinnati, one of baseball's most hitter-friendly venues. Hunter Greene allowed an unsustainably low 0.7 HR/9 last season despite historically having elevated homer rates—1.7 HR/9 in rookie season and roughly 1.5 HR/9 afterward. Neiffer sees regression toward this higher rate coming, particularly given Greene's velocity-heavy approach, making Chapman a prime candidate to go yard given his power profile and stadium upgrade even with cooler but acceptable early-season weather.