Greg Peterson recommends betting on the Red Sox moneyline at -108 against Toronto, emphasizing that Chris Bassitt is due for regression despite his strong early-season numbers (just one run allowed in 12.2 innings). Peterson believes Bassitt's overall numbers since joining Toronto (3.75 ERA, 4.08 FIP, and 3.1 walks per nine innings) suggest he won't sustain the strong recent form. Furthermore, the Blue Jays bullpen is currently a liability, ranking 26th with a 5.61 ERA. Meanwhile, despite an inconsistent start for Boston's Walker Buehler (nine runs in 9.1 innings), he's getting a favorable draw against a Jays lineup that has hit a mere three home runs against right-handed pitchers so far, the lowest mark in MLB. Peterson’s handicapping puts Boston closer to -138 on the moneyline, giving considerable value in the current number.

Greg Peterson recommends betting on the Brewers moneyline at -110, largely due to the favorable matchup against Colorado's shaky bullpen, currently ranked worst in MLB ERA. While Brewers starter Quinn Priester's career ERA of 6.27 isn't impressive, Peterson highlights that Priester worked hard in the offseason adjusting his pitch mix and boosting fastball velocity, indicating potential improvement in performance, particularly at just age 24. Rockies starter Ryan Feltner has a somewhat respectable ERA of 4.44 and FIP of 4.18 dating back to 2024, which is notable given Coors Field challenges. However, the Rockies offense has struggled significantly, failing to score more than four runs in nine of their first ten games this season. Given these substantial shortcomings in Colorado's offensive production and bullpen, Peterson handicaps Milwaukee closer to -134 and believes there is clear betting value here.

Greg Peterson recommends betting against Angels starter Jose Soriano, pointing to Soriano already allowing two home runs early this season after only surrendering eight throughout the entirety of 2024. Soriano has historically struggled with command, demonstrated by a career 3.87 FIP and consistently high walk rate (three walks per nine innings). Peterson highlights that Tampa Bay starter Zack Littell excels at limiting free passes (1.5 walks per nine innings), despite a tendency for allowing home runs (1.3 HR/9 since 2023). Additionally, Tampa Bay's bullpen has been solid, ranked eighth in MLB with a 3.25 ERA, whereas the Angels' bullpen has struggled significantly, ranking 25th with a 5.58 ERA. With these factors, Peterson sees clear value in taking the Rays moneyline at -128 and also the under at 8.5 runs (his line is closer to Rays -144 and total 7.9 runs).

Greg Peterson sees value in the Royals moneyline at -118 due to Twins starter Bailey Ober's continued struggles, particularly noting Ober's early 2025 performance where he's allowed nine runs in just 6.2 innings. Historically, Ober has had significant issues pitching at Kauffman Stadium, compiling a poor 6.49 ERA across six career road starts against Kansas City. Royals starter Michael Wacha, in contrast, has been consistently reliable since joining the team in 2024, sporting a steady 3.42 ERA, a solid 3.63 FIP, and limiting home runs (0.9 HR/9). Furthermore, Peterson points out that Minnesota's lineup has struggled to produce runs early this year (3.45 per game average) and will be without key slugger Royce Lewis, who remains sidelined on the injured list. Peterson personally handicaps the Royals closer to -131, indicating significant betting value here.

Greg Peterson advises betting the over 7 runs total in Yankees vs Tigers based on potent hitting and vulnerable pitching. The Yankees have been explosive offensively, averaging 7.1 runs per game and 2.3 homers per contest, despite a shutout yesterday. Tigers starter Jack Flaherty is vulnerable, with a 4.36 ERA in recent starts and notably allowing over 1.6 HR/9 innings for the Dodgers and Tigers. Yankees' Max Fried may look good with a 2.61 ERA but has benefited from four unearned runs skewing his numbers. Peterson emphasizes this misleading factor, noticing Fried's underlying FIP (3.84) is significantly higher than the posted ERA. Given these offensive fireworks and suspect starting pitching matchups, he projects a higher-scoring outcome at 7.8 runs, providing clear over value at 7.

Greg Peterson likes the over on the Marlins vs Mets total of 7 runs, pointing clearly to the unreliable pitching matchup. Miami's Max Meyer has allowed at least three runs in nine of his last ten starts dating back to 2024, owning an inflated career ERA (5.42) and FIP (5.44). While Mets pitcher Tylor Megill has started 2025 strong, surrendering only a single run across two starts, Peterson is unconvinced due to Megill's ongoing control issues—he has maintained a troubling 3.5 BB/9 pace this season, in line with a career 3.4 BB/9 and a middling 4.34 FIP. Given these pitchers' issues, Peterson projects a higher-scoring game, handicapping the total at 8.3 runs well above the 7-run setting.

Greg Peterson strongly advises betting both the Brewers' run line (-1.5, +114) and the over (10.5 runs) against Colorado citing shaky pitching on both sides. Peterson targets Antonio Senzatela of the Rockies, whose early-season line looks extremely lucky—19 hits allowed in only 9.2 innings yet miraculously only one unearned run. Peterson believes his luck will run out given Colorado owns MLB's worst bullpen ERA entering Tuesday (6.98). The Brewers pitching side is no better with a bullpen ranked 29th (6.92 ERA). Tyler Alexander, Milwaukee’s starter, struggled in 2024 with a 5.08 ERA and nearly two homers allowed per 9 innings. Considering Coors Field and both teams' relief pitching woes, Peterson expects a high-scoring Brewers victory exceeding 10.5 runs.

Greg Peterson recommends a moneyline wager on Atlanta Braves (-120) against Taijuan Walker and the Phillies. Peterson highlights Walker as one of MLB's worst starters in 2024, posting a problematic 7.10 ERA, 6.94 FIP, and allowing 2.6 HR/9 over 19 appearances. Peterson dismisses Walker’s recent successful start (six scoreless innings vs Rockies) as misleading given his consistent past issues. On the other hand, Atlanta pitcher Grant Holmes projects well, maintaining solid stats (3.80 ERA and impressive underlying 3.39 FIP with strong 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings and a low walk rate of 2.3) since 2024. Given the stark contrast in starter reliability, Peterson prices Atlanta's line closer to -147, clearly favoring the Braves at the available price.

Greg Peterson is bullish on Arizona's moneyline at -120 since his own handicap values the Diamondbacks at -146. Arizona has led the entire league in runs per game since the start of 2024, indicating a potent and consistent offense. Additionally, Peterson sees positive regression ahead for D-Backs starter Brandon Pfaadt. Pfaadt currently holds a 4.74 ERA, but a notably better 3.76 FIP and an excellent 4.51 strikeout-to-walk ratio mean better days should come soon. Orioles starter Dean Kremer also comes in with a so-so ERA (4.26) and less-than-impressive peripherals (3.4 BB/9 and 1.2 HR/9). Supporting offensive strength and expected pitcher performance shift gives Peterson reason to favor Arizona.

Greg Peterson recommends betting the under on the Cardinals vs Pirates total set at 8. His reasoning emphasizes Mitch Keller's significant home-road splits. Keller has posted a far superior ERA at home (4.15 with 0.9 HR/9) compared to his struggles away from Pittsburgh (5.14 ERA, 1.3 HR/9). Additionally, the Pirates offense provided little support, averaging just over 3.6 runs per game entering Tuesday following a season ranked 24th in runs per game. Erick Fedde for St. Louis started strong this season (1 run over 6 innings vs. Twins), but was roughed up against Boston recently. However, Fedde has noticeably improved since his return from the KBO, lowering his HR/9 allowed from 1.5 to 1.1 and walk rates from 3.8 walks/9 to 2.7. Given Keller's tenure at home, lackluster Pirates scoring, and Fedde’s improvement, Peterson sees value in under 8 runs.

Greg Peterson strongly backs the Arizona Diamondbacks moneyline (-110 tonight) against Baltimore, noting he handicaps the D-Backs as significantly heavier favorites (-138). Arizona starter Merrill Kelly is coming off a rough outing, but Orioles pitcher Charlie Morton has struggled equally this season, surrendering nine runs in just 8.1 innings. The Diamondbacks boast a strong and potent offense that led the majors in scoring in 2024, providing them the clear offensive advantage. Additionally, Morton’s significant road struggles are underscored by his consistent inability over the past three seasons (3.99 ERA or worse away from home), making Arizona a solid betting opportunity tonight.

Peterson recommends backing the Kansas City Royals on the moneyline (-123) against Minnesota, highlighting how Cole Ragans has quietly become an ace-level talent for Kansas City. Ragans owns elite metrics, including a 3.02 ERA, 2.86 FIP, 10.9 K/9, and limiting opposing hitters to just 0.6 home runs per game since becoming a Royal in late 2023. He also cites the depleted Twins lineup, notably missing key hitters Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis, averaging just 3.1 runs entering Monday. Moreover, although Twins pitcher Pablo Lopez has shown good peripheral metrics and strikeout numbers, the results (3.82 ERA) suggest he remains vulnerable. Peterson also sees clear value on a higher scoring game, playing over 7.5, given the conditions and offenses heading into this matchup.

Greg Peterson sees clear value on the Phillies moneyline (+106) against the Braves tonight, noting he handicaps Philadelphia as a slight favorite (-106). Phillies starter Zack Wheeler has historically dominated Atlanta, holding a sterling 2.95 ERA and averaging just 0.9 home runs allowed per nine innings in 30 career starts against them. Meanwhile, Braves ace Chris Sale—impressive last year—has struggled to replicate those results thus far in 2025, already allowing six earned runs in just 10 innings over two starts. Additionally, Atlanta's offense has underwhelmed early (averaging just three runs per game), further supporting Peterson's push for the Phillies as undervalued road underdogs.

Greg Peterson likes the Guardians to comfortably handle business today against the White Sox, advising a play on Cleveland's run line (-1.5 at +110). White Sox starter Shane Smith, while limiting hits in his MLB debut, issued four walks over 5.2 innings and now makes his first career road start. Peterson also sees offensive improvements for the formerly struggling White Sox lineup. However, the critical weakness in this matchup is Guardians starter Ben Lively, who posted an uninspiring 4.66 FIP last year and has allowed seven runs in just 9.1 innings so far this season. Peterson also recommends betting the over (7.5 runs), predicting increased runs given shaky pitching performances on both ends.

Greg Peterson recommends betting the Diamondbacks moneyline at -116, finding clear value compared to his own handicapped line of -134. Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen has excelled at home dating back to 2023 with an impressive 3.00 ERA. Orioles pitcher Zach Eflin has good control but has been vulnerable to home runs, allowing 1.2 HR per nine innings this season. The Diamondbacks' league-leading run production further strengthens Peterson's confidence in backing Arizona to win at home.

Greg Peterson highlights Michael Lorenzen as a pitcher likely to regress negatively based on last season's fortunate outcomes compared to his advanced numbers. Lorenzen's solid 3.31 ERA masked a troubling 4.89 FIP, alongside a concerning strikeout rate of just 6.7 per nine innings and a walk rate of 4.1 per nine innings. Given these unsustainable results, Peterson predicts higher run totals in Lorenzen's starts and recommends betting the over, particularly in the Twins vs. Royals matchup where he handicaps the total at 9.1, surpassing the posted 8.5 line.

Greg Peterson recommends betting against Aaron Nola and the Phillies, siding instead with the Dodgers (+102). Nola has consistently underperformed expectations since 2021, posting a 3.98 ERA with poor home-run control (1.3 HR/9) and allowing five runs in his recent debut. Dodgers starter Roki Sasaki also faces command concerns (nine walks in just 4.2 innings), but he benefits from one of baseball's strongest lineups, averaging over 5.6 runs per game so far. Additionally, LA's bullpen boasts a sparkling 1.83 ERA, providing further backing for a Dodgers victory.

Greg Peterson favors the Astros as slight underdogs (+105) against the Twins, largely due to pitcher Spencer Arrighetti's form. Arrighetti closed last season strong with a 3.08 ERA and 10.8 K/9 in his final 14 starts and looked sharp in his 2025 debut, yielding just one run over six innings. Conversely, Minnesota's Bailey Ober struggled mightily in his first start (giving up eight runs while recording only eight outs) and faces an injury-depleted lineup missing Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee. The remaining healthy Twins hitters have also started the season sluggishly.

Greg Peterson suggests betting on the Mariners (+115) and the over at 7 runs. Robbie Ray's recurring issues with walks and home runs (4 BB/9 and 2 HR/9 since joining San Francisco) should help awaken Seattle’s road lineup, which averaged nearly 4.6 runs away from T-Mobile Park last year. Mariners’ starter Bryce Miller had notable road struggles in 2024 (4.07 ERA and 1.6 HR/9), suggesting both offenses could be productive in San Francisco, further supporting a higher-scoring game than the line indicates.

Greg Peterson picks the Mets -122 and the over at 7.5 runs, given Griffin Canning's diminishing strikeout ability (career-low 6.8 K/9 last year, 5.19 ERA, and 1.6 HR/9). He’ll pitch against ex-teammate Chris Bassitt, who's been steady (3.82 ERA) since joining Toronto but faces the challenge of his team's shaky bullpen, the worst in the AL last year (4.82 ERA) and even worse to start this season (5.59 ERA). The Mets lineup, while absent Juan Soto this year, was still top-10 in runs per game during last season, setting up a potential high-scoring matchup.

Peterson recommends betting Reds -105 and Over 8 Runs against Milwaukee, primarily due to Brewers starter Elvin Rodriguez's troubling history (9.49 ERA across three MLB seasons, 7.59 ERA in recent Spring Training) and shaky opening start. Cincinnati's bats are overdue after three straight shutout losses (all 1-0) and should take advantage of Rodriguez's ineffectiveness. Meanwhile, Reds pitcher Brady Singer was outstanding in his debut (7 scoreless innings, 1 hit) and faces a Brewers lineup that has struggled thus far, scoring three or fewer runs in five out of their seven games.

Greg Peterson likes the Red Sox on the moneyline at -122 against St. Louis. Red Sox starter Richard Fitts has limited experience but a solid 2.36 ERA thanks to his forte in generating soft contact, despite averaging only 4.4 strikeouts per nine innings. The Boston bullpen is also a positive factor, ranking eighth in ERA after adjustments, including shifting Garrett Whitlock into long relief. Cardinals' starter Andre Pallante similarly pitches to contact and doesn't have overpowering stuff (6.3 K/9), presenting a favorable opponent matchup for Boston’s approach.

Greg Peterson suggests taking Marlins ML (+204) and over 7.5 runs (handicapped Marlins line +183 and total 7.9). While Atlanta is winless through seven games against powerful West Coast squads, Marlins starter Max Meyer had a decent debut, and Braves hurler Spencer Schwellenbach has only average historical numbers. Atlanta's bullpen woes (5.40 bullpen ERA) and Marlins' stronger early-season offensive production through station-to-station baseball add weight to Peterson's value-based assessment.

Greg Peterson finds value on Rangers ML (-120) and under 8.5 runs (handicap: Rangers -138, total 8.2). Tampa Bay's offense ranked 29th in runs last season, which could struggle against Texas pitcher Tyler Mahle finding rhythm after a brief first outing. Peterson notes Rays pitcher Zack Littell's decent numbers since 2023 (3.68 ERA, solid control) also supports a lower scoring narrative, thus making the under and Rangers attractive.

Greg Peterson backs the Royals (-115) and over 8.5 runs against the Orioles, placing his own line at Royals -144 and total 9.1. Orioles pitcher Dean Kremer struggled in his 2025 start and historically allows walks (3.5 BB/9), while Royals pitcher Seth Lugo showed regression potential after a significant outlier 2024 season. The Orioles offense has been impressive this season even with injuries, creating an environment conducive to run production and favoring the Royals at Peterson's assessed odds.

Greg Peterson sees value backing the Mets at -132 and betting the over 7.5 runs (handicapped line: Mets -147, total 8.2) against the Blue Jays. Peterson notes Mets' pitcher Tylor Megill had a solid opening start (one run allowed in five innings versus Astros), though his career numbers (4.52 ERA, 1.4 HR/9, 3.4 BB/9) leave room for concern and opportunities for more scoring. On the Blue Jays' side, Kevin Gausman's notable 2024 drop in strikeouts (to 8.1 K/9) and a 3.83 ERA indicate vulnerability. With both starters having underlying question marks, Peterson likes both the Mets' moneyline and a higher-scoring contest.

Greg Peterson likes taking the Mariners ML (+132) against the Giants, handicapping it at +121. He points to Justin Verlander's declining effectiveness since 2024, evidenced by a 5.38 ERA and increased home run rate (1.5 per nine innings) at age 42. Seattle's improved road offensive numbers last year (4.6 runs/game) and starter Bryce Miller's breakout 2024 performance (2.98 ERA, 3.58 FIP, strong K-to-BB ratio) make the Mariners a savvy pick at the current price.

Greg Peterson is betting on a strong bounce-back from Brewers starter Nestor Cortes. Cortes had a horrific start against the Yankees (five home runs allowed, eight total earned runs in two innings), but Peterson points out his overall career ERA outside Yankee Stadium is respectable (3.94 ERA). He adds that, despite extensive bullpen use this season (5th-most innings pitched per game), Milwaukee's powerful offense last season (6th in runs per game) supports backing Brewers at -108 vs his implied fair line of -131.

Greg Peterson backs Merrill Kelly and the Diamondbacks, anticipating a rebound to his strong 2023 form where Kelly recorded a career-high 9.5 strikeouts per 9 innings and a solid 3.29 ERA. Despite an injury-shortened, down year in 2024, Peterson believes Kelly's talent and strikeout upside give Arizona the betting edge against Carrasco and the Yankees, pricing them favorably at -104 (Peterson's fair line: -123).

Greg Peterson advises fading Carlos Carrasco due to uncertainty in his pitching length and recent struggles. Carrasco has struggled significantly since 2021, posting a 5.36 ERA, 4.66 FIP, and allowing 1.5 home runs per 9 innings. His rocky 2025 relief outing versus Milwaukee (3 runs in 2 IP) creates uncertainty about how deep he'll pitch. Despite the Yankees' strong bullpen (2nd-best AL ERA: 3.62 in 2023), Peterson believes Arizona has betting value at -104, versus a fair implied price of -123.

Greg Peterson is optimistic about Charlie Morton's consistent strikeout dominance, noting Morton's impressive streak of having over nine strikeouts per nine innings each season since 2016. Considering both squads' bullpen strengths and recent offensive struggles, Greg sees value in backing the Orioles slightly at -102 against his fair line of -125, noting Morton's reliability as a key reason.

Greg Peterson highlights Tanner Houck's strong road performance splits, holding a career 3.17 ERA away from home compared to his overall 3.99 ERA. With Houck notably effective in limiting homers (0.7 HR/9 lifetime), and both teams' bullpens entering the series with ERAs of 2.70 or lower, Greg's analysis supports taking the 'Under' bet on the total (Under 9 runs, his fair line set at 8.4). He points out that Baltimore's current offensive struggles and early-season injuries, along with Red Sox bats like Rafael Devers struggling initially, support the lower-scoring expectation.

Greg Peterson advises caution against Antonio Senzatela, given his prolonged struggles and injury history. Senzatela hasn't achieved an ERA below 5.00 since 2021 and has battled significant injuries the past two seasons. In his first outing this season, he permitted 9 hits in just 4 1/3 innings, indicative of his long-term issue of being a contact-heavy pitcher with a career strikeout rate of just 5.9 per 9 innings. Due to these issues and the Phillies' pitcher struggling, Greg likes the higher-scoring game (over 9.5 runs, fair total 9.6).

Greg Peterson recommends betting against Taijuan Walker and the Phillies based on Walker's dismal recent performance. Walker suffered through one of MLB's worst pitching seasons in recent memory in 2024, recording a disastrous 7.10 ERA, a 6.94 FIP, and allowing a staggering 2.6 home runs per 9 innings (HR/9) across 19 appearances. Facing the Rockies, Greg suggests that the poor form makes the Rockies an attractive underdog at +195, compared to his projected fair line of +164.

Greg Peterson spots value betting the Braves moneyline (+114) versus the Padres. AJ Smith-Shawver, despite limited MLB exposure (only seven appearances), dazzled with 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings in Spring Training and remains a promising 22-year-old talent. Opposing pitcher Nick Pivetta has always struggled with hard contact, consistently allowing at least 1.3 home runs per nine innings throughout his eight-season MLB career. The Braves near-elite bullpen (second in ERA and Fielding Independent last year) further supports Smith-Shawver, contributing to Peterson’s confidence that the Braves are undervalued (handicapped Braves line at -107).

Greg Peterson advises playing under the total (8.5 runs) in the Boston vs Texas matchup. Despite Jacob deGrom being 37 years old, being healthy to open the season significantly boosts his effectiveness — he carries a brilliant 2.07 ERA and 2.12 FIP since 2018. Richard Fitts also looked promising in Spring Training and impressed late last season (1.74 ERA over four starts). The Rangers lineup was relatively uninspiring at home last year (ranked 18th in runs/game), further suggesting Peterson’s projected total (7.8 runs) is lower than current odds indicate.

Greg Peterson sees value backing the White Sox moneyline (+123). Davis Martin pitched far better than his 0-5 record showed in previous action, posting a solid 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings with only 0.9 homers allowed per nine, and is returning from injury after missing last season. The Angels' Jack Kochanowicz struggles mightily generating strikeouts (only 3.4 K/9 last year), and he showed little improvement during Spring Training. With the Angels finishing third-worst in runs per game last season, Peterson calculates enough reasons to back Chicago at the plus-money price (handicapped line White Sox +104).

Greg Peterson highlighted Andrew Heaney's chronic home run vulnerabilities, noting he has allowed at least 1.3 home runs per nine innings in 10 of his 11 MLB seasons. However, facing a Marlins lineup severely lacking power (their starting lineup Friday had a career total of just 45 home runs among all nine players) mitigates that weakness. Conversely, Miami starter Max Meyer has had strong minors performances but struggles to translate it at the MLB level yet benefits from facing an unchanged Pirates offense that ranked 24th in runs per game last season. Peterson's handicapped line has Miami favored significantly at -142 and projects a low-scoring affair, giving betting value to the Marlins +105 and the Under 8 runs.