Gumby faded Jamahal Hill and sided with Khalil Rountree Jr. He noted Hill has been violently finished in back-to-back outings by Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka—both inside two rounds—exposing porous defense (absorbs 4.00 sig-strikes per minute). Rountree, by contrast, went toe-to-toe with Pereira for two rounds and actually stole one on the cards before a late stoppage. Gumby called Hill a ‘one-speed brawler’ who struggles versus technical southpaws; Rountree’s Thai-style body kicks and left-hand counters should find the midsection easily. With Rountree carrying a +0.55 knockdown-rate and Hill’s chin trending downward, Gumby expects the Warhorse to land something mean and get Hill out of there inside 15 minutes.

Gumby fired on Rafael Fiziev, calling this a classic ‘levels’ matchup. Fiziev’s three-fight skid came against Mateusz Gamrot and Justin Gaethje—names hovering around title shots—and he arguably beat Gaethje on two scorecards. Bahamondes, meanwhile, was out-pointed by shorter, stockier technicians John Makdessi and Ludovit Klein. Gumby believes that’s relevant because Fiziev also fights from a low center of gravity, unloads lightning combinations, then changes levels for surprise doubles (1.39 takedowns per 15). He expects those reactive shots and the Thai-style body kicks to mute Bahamondes’ reach advantage. With Fiziev still carrying a 63% striking-defense rate and proven five-round cardio, Gumby projects multiple takedowns and rib-kicks adding up to either a late finish or clear decision at +110.

Gumby said Curtis Blaydes is still the heavyweight gatekeeper you have to be special to beat. He pointed out that nobody outside of Jelton Almeida has been able to out-wrestle Blaydes, and even then Blaydes still had the gas tank to finish the second round. Blaydes averages 6.02 takedowns per 15 minutes, carries a +1.63 striking differential, and – unlike most big men – never looks winded. Rizvan Kuniev’s eye-popping striking stats (+4.57 per minute) were compiled against Contender-Series talent and come with an asterisk: the Russian’s lone PFL appearance was overturned for a steroid pop. Gumby posted before-and-after photos of Kuniev on Twitter and said the post-USADA version is visibly softer and slower. Blaydes owns a four-inch reach edge, is a former JUCO national champ, and has finished 13 of 18 wins with ground-and-pound. With Kuniev’s cardio already questionable and no proven success against elite heavyweights, Gumby expects Blaydes to hit early doubles, ride from half-guard, and overwhelm the debutant en route to a late TKO or lopsided decision at –250.

Gumby jumped on Serghei Spivac by submission at +375, arguing books are underrating the Moldovan’s clearest path. Spivac lands 4.26 takedowns per 15 minutes at 63% accuracy and owns seven career subs, most recently arm-triangling Derrick Lewis in round one. His opponent—whom Gumby dubbed “Salsa Boy” for his propensity to dance on the feet—has been taken down in five of six UFC appearances and concedes mount almost immediately once grounded. Spivac is "super intelligent," never brawls unnecessarily, and should shoot within the opening minute, slice to side control and hunt the head-and-arm choke. Gumby called the +375 tag "three times too long" and locked it into his round-robin.

Gumby said to lay the –275 on Merab Dvalishvili because nothing in Sean O’Malley’s layoff-filled camp suggests he fixed the fatal flaw from the first meeting. O’Malley went straight from hip-labrum surgery into an immediate rematch without a tune-up bout to test his wrestling, and Gumby doubts a few months of drilling can erase the 11 takedowns and 12:41 of top control Merab logged last time. Dvalishvili is on a 12-fight UFC win streak, averages 6.55 takedowns per 15 minutes, owns a World Sambo silver medal, and has never been finished. Gumby projected "10–15 takedowns and another lopsided decision," adding that he will be smashing any Underdog Fantasy or book prop that posts an "over" on Merab’s takedowns.

Gumby declared Kayla Harrison a lay-the-chalk smash at –649, insisting Juliana Pena has “zero winning conditions.” Harrison’s Olympic-level judo and PFL résumé (18-1, never finished) make Pena’s usual grappling path a dead end. On the feet, Gumby actually grades Harrison as the cleaner striker, noting Pena’s infamous overeager, off-balance punching that nearly cost her against Amanda Nunes and Raquel Pennington. With the bout now at 135, Harrison is still the bigger, stronger athlete and should rag-doll the Venezuelan Vixen whenever she wants. Gumby warned Pena’s only hope is a weight-miss disqualification, predicting Harrison by mauling TKO or a smothering 50-44 decision and advising bettors to anchor parlays with the challenger or hunt alt-spread props (Harrison ‑5.5 points).

Gumby said Joe Pyfer is a far safer bet at –380 now that the bout has been moved from high-altitude Salt Lake City to sea-level. He argued Kelvin Gastelum’s only realistic path was to out-cardio Pyfer, a strategy neutered by the venue change. Stylistically, Gastelum never point-fights—he eats a shot to land one—and that plays right into Pyfer’s size (+5" height, +4" reach) and raw power. Gumby noted Pyfer’s lone UFC loss came to Jack Hermansson’s stick-and-move style, something Gastelum has never shown. Wrestling is no bailout either, as Pyfer owns superior takedown metrics. With Gastelum likely to brawl against a man who “should be a weight class higher and is built like a statue,” Gumby sees Pyfer winning inside the distance and considers the money-line parlay or ITD prop the sharp angle.

Gumby is laying the short chalk (-163) on Patchy Mix, arguing the former Bellator champ’s wrestling-submission combo is levels above Mario Bautista’s. He cited Mix’s domination of world-class grapplers like Magomed Magomedov and Raufeon Stots, a 13-submission résumé, and a southpaw stance backed by nasty calf kicks that force over-reactions and open takedowns. Bautista struggled to stay upright versus Da’Mon Blackshear and was once arm-barred by Cory Sandhagen in 3:31—evidence, per Gumby, that Mix can find a quick finish once the fight hits the mat. Mix’s pawing lead hand, pressure entries, and back-taking prowess make him "Patchy by sub" the preferred play.

Daniel "Gumby" Vreeland echoed the Luque call, stressing that Holland’s defensive wrestling (47% stuffed in the UFC) and occasional urge to shoot his own takedowns could play straight into Luque’s trademark D’Arce/Anaconda series. Gumby noted Luque’s only recent losses came against elite, well-rounded welterweights (Belal Muhammad, Geoff Neal) whereas Holland is one-dimensional and often prioritizes entertainment over strategy. If Holland decides to grapple or simply gets planted, Gumby sees Luque’s submission arsenal ending things quickly, making the +230 price far too wide.