Gumby Vreeland backed Jafel Filho as a +132 underdog, arguing the Brazilian’s resume and skill set make him the value side against Allan Nascimento. Vreeland pointed to Filho competitive showing with Muhammad Mokaev—where Filho fought through a dislocated knee, defended multiple grappling sequences, and even threatened positions against a man Vreeland called a consensus top-10, arguably top-5, flyweight. By contrast, Nascimento’s best UFC win is Carlos Hernandez, and he was soundly out-wrestled by Tagir Ulanbekov. Vreeland believes Saturday’s bout will hinge on mat exchanges and credits Filho for being the superior ‘position holder,’ citing the way he routinely turns small scrambles into back-takes and sweeps. He doubts Nascimento’s takedown defense, notes Filho knack for opportunistic submissions (10 of 16 wins), and sees multiple paths to a decision or tap-out. With the sharper strength of schedule and proven ability to survive and score against elite grapplers, Vreeland labeled Filho a live dog worthy of a straight money-line play.

Gumby Vreeland advised playing the "higher than 60.5 significant strikes" prop on Rayanne Dos Santos at Underdog Fantasy rather than laying the steep –270 money-line. Vreeland expects the bout with Elis Ardellian to play out almost entirely on the feet, noting that both women are 0-2 in the UFC and neither has shown consistent offensive wrestling. Dos Santos already averages 6.1 landed strikes per minute across Contender Series and UFC action, and Vreeland believes three full rounds of open-mat kickboxing will allow her to eclipse the 60.5 mark even in a competitive or losing effort. He framed the prop as a lower-risk way to get exposure to Dos Santos’ pace without the bankroll hit of a big favorite.

Gumby Vreeland endorsed Zachary Reese at the –238 price tag, forecasting a finish over the increasingly fragile Dusko Todorovic. Vreeland emphasized that Todorovic has been knocked out in back-to-back fights and four times overall, whereas Reese enters with eight finishes in eight wins and an aggressive, pressure-heavy striking style. He loves Reese’s commitment to ripping the body, predicting sustained liver shots will sap Todorovic’s already-suspect durability even if an early one-punch KO doesn’t land. Vreeland added that Reese’s willingness to mix in clinch elbows and grappling gives him a secondary path, but believes the most likely outcome is a mid-fight TKO once the Serbian’s gas tank and chin inevitably give way. Given Todorovic’s 3-5 UFC mark and lack of notable wins outside a 2022 stoppage of Jordan Wright, Vreeland called Reese a justified favorite and a viable parlay anchor or inside-the-distance prop.

Gumby Vreeland took the +163 underdog shot on Kurt Holobaugh, arguing the matchup hinges on wrestling rather than jiu-jitsu. He expects Holobaugh—who he felt deserved the nod over Alexander Hernandez last summer—to decide where the fight takes place thanks to superior takedown entries and stout hips. On the feet, Vreeland sees a pronounced pace edge; Holobaugh walks opponents down and throws 4.8 significant strikes per minute compared to Leavitt’s 2.6. Should it hit the mat, Holobaugh’s top-game ground-and-pound would rack up damage while limiting Leavitt’s arm-bar and sweep attempts. Vreeland added that Leavitt’s year-long layoff and recent submission loss to Chase Hooper raise questions about his durability in extended grappling exchanges. With that blend of wrestling control and cardio, Vreeland projects Holobaugh by decision at attractive plus-money.

Gumby Vreeland hammered Andreas Gustafsson at –150 (now trending even lower) against Trevin Giles, calling it "so many things working in Gustafsson’s favor." He highlighted Gustafsson’s clinch-heavy, grinding style built around elbows and body work, plus reliable takedown defense he has shown both on Dana White’s Contender Series and the European regional scene. With the bout set at a 180-lb catch-weight, Vreeland noted Gustafsson likely walks around near that number while Giles must still cut from 195+ on just a few weeks’ notice, compounding Giles’ well-documented cardio fades. Giles has dropped three straight and has not won since March 2020, whereas Gustafsson rides a 3-fight TKO streak and has never been finished. Vreeland even sprinkled Gustafsson by submission at +800, reasoning that Giles “loves getting tired and sticking his neck where it doesn’t belong,” referencing his third-round guillotine loss to Gerald Meerschaert.

Gumby Vreeland said MarQuel Medeiros is a value play at +155 against Bolaji Oki. Vreeland argued Oki willingly hangs in the pocket and is "ready to be hit," while Medeiros constantly circles, cuts sharp angles, and fires straight punches that land clean without giving big counter windows. He noted Medeiros has shown reliable takedown defense and better gas management because he doesn’t empty the tank with wild, looping shots like Oki. With Oki’s defensive striking flaws and Medeiros’ proven cardio and footwork, Vreeland believes the underdog has multiple paths to win a three-round decision and should be the betting side.

Gumby Vreeland echoed the Camilo pick, stressing that the rookie’s hand speed and one-shot power are a nightmare for Gabe Green, whose timing may be compromised after a long medical hiatus. Vreeland noted Green was ‘sparked’ in his last fight and believes the cumulative damage, coupled with Camilo’s sharp boxing, sets up another knockout. Even if Green tries to wrestle, Vreeland trusts Camilo’s ‘crafty when it hits the mat’ submission arsenal, highlighted by flying triangles and front-head attacks on the regional circuit. With Camilo also entering on a six-fight heater and debuting without the short-notice caveats that often sink newcomers, Vreeland expects a statement win—most likely by KO but live for a slick tap-out as well.

Gumby Vreeland added Denise Gomes by-knockout at +325 as the second leg of his +1281 parlay, insisting Elise Reed’s defense simply cannot hold up. Reed has already been stopped twice in the UFC, eats 5.3 significant strikes per minute, and relies on toughness rather than slick head movement. Vreeland noted Gomes lands with 57% accuracy, has finished three of her last four wins, and is the far heavier puncher in this matchup. If Reed chooses to "take punches all day," Vreeland expects the Brazilian to crack her wide-open chin inside the distance, making the +325 KO ticket—and the two-leg parlay—live dart throws for bettors.

Gumby Vreeland tabbed Carlos Hernandez as his underdog play, citing the flyweight’s speed advantage and improved takedown defense. Hernandez lands 4.9 significant strikes per minute at 54 % accuracy and just stuffed all four shot attempts from Altamirano in his most recent bout. Vreeland believes those hips will shut down his unnamed opponent’s single-leg heavy wrestling and leave a boxing match where Hernandez’s jab-cross combinations shine. With odds hovering around +150, Gumby thinks the market is over-valuing the wrestler’s top-control minutes and under-estimating Hernandez’s footwork and volume. He anticipates a 29-28 type decision built on superior striking output and late-round cardio.

Making her his card ‘lock,’ Gumby Vreeland backed Luana Santos to steamroll Stephanie Luciano. He highlighted Santos’s 4.0 takedowns per 15 minutes and 71 % top-control rate, contrasting that with Luciano’s regional tape where she was repeatedly reversed by sub-.500 opponents. Santos has finished three of her last four wins by rear-naked choke and averages 1.8 submission attempts per round, while Luciano has yet to fight anyone with a winning record. Gumby expects Santos to secure an early body-lock, trip to the mat, and either rack up dominant-position time for an easy decision or latch a neck in the opening stanza. At –185, he views Santos as parlay glue and sprinkles the +500 submission prop for extra juice.

Gumby Vreeland sided with the unbeaten Michael Morales despite acknowledging the bout is a step up. Morales is 17-0 with 12 knockouts, boasts an 8-inch reach and 2-inch height advantage, and lands 5.6 significant strikes per minute while allowing just 3.6—a +2 differential that Gumby calls "elite for a 24-year-old." By contrast, Gilbert Burns is riding a three-fight skid, has not won since April 2020, and was knocked out earlier this year, bringing his career KO losses to three. Vreeland doubts Burns can survive Morales’s early onslaught, notes that Burns’s only path is to blanket the Ecuadorian for 25 minutes, and stresses that Morales has stuffed 78 % of takedowns in his five UFC bouts. He projects a Morales TKO inside two rounds and is comfortable laying the –700 money-line juice in parlays.

Gumby Vreeland called Rodolfo Bellato a "lock" so long as he refuses to follow Paul Craig to the mat. Vreeland reminded listeners that Jimmy Crute—a physically similar light-heavyweight—couldn’t bully Bellato in the clinch, while Craig’s entire win condition is coaxing opponents into his guard. Bellato owns a two-to-one significant-strike volume edge over Craig and has yet to be taken down in the UFC. Vreeland emphasized that Craig has been knocked out five times in his last ten fights and looks even smaller back at 205. As long as Bellato keeps it standing—something Vreeland says "only Magomed Ankalaev was once goofy enough not to do"—the Brazilian’s faster hands and heavier kicks should secure a mid-fight KO at chalk odds around –500.

Gumby Vreeland backed Sodiq Yusuff as a slight +115 underdog, emphasizing two key edges: level of competition and the unexpected jump to lightweight. Yusuff’s only UFC losses are to Arnold Allen, Edson Barboza, and Diego Lopes—top-15 talents—while Mairon Santos is 2-0 against Francis Marshall and Connor Matthews. The bout being held at 155 lbs removes Yusuff’s brutal featherweight cut, a boost Vreeland says will improve his gas tank and durability at age 31. He believes the Nigerian’s craft—tight boxing combinations, feints, and a sneaky counter right—will frustrate the explosive but still raw Santos, whose defense has looked hittable even on the Contender Series. Vreeland expects a veteran savvy striking performance, predicting Yusuff wins a competitive but clear decision to halt his two-fight skid.

Gumby Vreeland grabbed Dustin Stoltzfus at +260 and even sprinkled the +600 decision prop, pointing to a glaring stylistic hole in Nersulton Ruzaboyev’s game. Ruzaboyev owns a 0% takedown-defense rate after being dragged down four times by Joaquin Buckley and only returning to his feet when Buckley ‘got bored.’ Vreeland argued Stoltzfus is a committed wrestler with crafty top control who can replicate that template. Seven of Ruzaboyev’s nine career losses are decisions where opponents blanketed him, a scenario Vreeland envisions if Stoltzfus chains takedowns early. He acknowledged Stoltzfus isn’t Buckley athletically, but feels the American’s willingness to ‘fight like a dog’ and maintain position makes him live to grind out 15 minutes, especially at this underdog price.

Gumby Vreeland grabbed the plus-money on veteran Julian “Juicy J” Erosa, citing Costa’s shaky submission defense and Erosa’s knack for front-head chokes. Vreeland reminded listeners that Costa was rear-naked-choked by Thiago Moises last year and has been tagged on the feet in previous bouts. Erosa’s 6-foot-1 frame at featherweight gives him three inches of height and reach, perfect for latching his trademark darce or anaconda when opponents shoot. He also carries legit pop, evidenced by starching iron-chin Nate Landwehr, so Vreeland envisions either a stun-then-snatch submission or a straight knockout. With Erosa winning six of his last eight and finishing his last three victories, Vreeland believes the matchup aligns perfectly for another bonus-worthy finish.

Gumby Vreeland agreed on Zahabi, drilling down on the matchup details. He referenced Aldo’s loss to Mario Bautista, where Bautista pinned him to the fence and drained him, and predicted Zahabi will apply similar forward pressure—only with cleaner boxing. Vreeland emphasized Zahabi’s crisp counter-punching that has produced multiple UFC knockouts and pointed out Aldo’s kicking game has disappeared since his boxing stint: ‘It’s like he forgot his legs work.’ That limits Aldo’s weapons and makes him easier to read. With the best-in-class coaching of brother Faras Zahabi and practically no cage miles, Vreeland sees Zahabi forcing Aldo backward, out-landing him, and possibly finishing late. He advises taking the underdog moneyline or Inside-the-Distance prop instead of laying –198 on the former champ.

Gumby Vreeland doubled-down on his underdog call but added fresh wrinkles. He reminded listeners that Gilbert Burns could only keep Della Maddalena down for an average of 35 seconds per takedown, so the Australian’s get-ups should again mute Muhammad’s wrestling edge. Vreeland also contrasted game plans: Muhammad’s success versus Leon Edwards came from constant forward pressure, yet Della Maddalena welcomes a firefight and will meet him in the center with heavy hooks and body work. Training rounds with elite grappler Craig Jones have further boosted Della Maddalena’s confidence in both his jiu-jitsu and stand-ups. Vreeland expects Muhammad’s angle-cutting uppercuts to be far less effective against a younger, fearless opponent who throws nearly 7 significant strikes per minute and owns a +2.4 differential. He recommends the moneyline while sprinkling KO props, convinced the champion’s usual cage-pushing style backfires here.

Gumby Vreeland echoed the underdog pick, emphasizing Maddalena’s ability to pop right back up after takedowns. Gilbert Burns averaged less than 35 seconds of control per takedown against him, and Vreeland expects a similar script with Muhammad. Once upright, Maddalena’s tight hooks and relentless forward pressure should actually force Muhammad backward, removing the champion’s preferred game plan. With a 17-fight win streak and 12 knockouts, Maddalena remains ‘wicked dangerous’ every second the fight is standing. Vreeland sees huge value on the ITD line around +150 and would rather play that than rely on judges.

Gumby Vreeland picked Manon Fiorot at –140 to outpoint Valentina Shevchenko. He stressed Fiorot’s excellent first-layer defense and even better get-ups, noting Erin Blanchfield could not keep her down for more than a second. If Shevchenko’s takedowns fail to stick, the fight becomes pure kickboxing, where Fiorot lands nearly twice as many significant strikes (about 7.0 per minute) and owns a +2.49 differential, versus Shevchenko’s +1.16. Vreeland also cited wear-and-tear: both women are 36, but Shevchenko has 20 years of pro combat, whereas Fiorot’s 12-fight win streak has been almost damage-free. Expecting a razor-close 48-47 type fight, he recommends Fiorot by decision or even the split-decision prop for a juicy return.

Gumby Vreeland labeled Alexa Grasso a live +210 underdog, arguing bookmakers are disrespecting a recent champion who went 1-1-1 across three bouts with Valentina Shevchenko. Vreeland emphasized that Natalia Silva jumps from beating a past-prime Jessica Andrade and pre-prime JJ Aldrich to facing an elite boxer/grappler who has never been finished by strikes. Silva’s 25% takedown accuracy means she likely has to trade on the feet, where Grasso owns a positive strike differential (+0.50 per minute) and championship-level cardio. Vreeland believes the drastic step up in competition and Grasso’s proven five-round durability make the dog price a must-bet.

Gumby Vreeland agreed that Saint-Denis is the side but stressed *why*: Prepolec’s takedown defense has failed at both UFC and regional levels (controlled for long stretches by Austin Hubbard last time out). After back-to-back KO losses, Vreeland expects Saint-Denis to lean on his wrestling—72% takedown success in previous wins—and believes a single takedown could end the fight via submission or ground-and-pound. He advised bettors to skip the –900 moneyline and instead attack the Round-1 or ITD props for a far better return.

Gumby Vreeland doubled-down on his underdog call but added fresh wrinkles. He reminded listeners that Gilbert Burns could only keep Della Maddalena down for an average of 35 seconds per takedown, so the Australian’s get-ups should again mute Muhammad’s wrestling edge. Vreeland also contrasted game plans: Muhammad’s success versus Leon Edwards came from constant forward pressure, yet Della Maddalena welcomes a firefight and will meet him in the center with heavy hooks and body work. Training rounds with elite grappler Craig Jones have further boosted Della Maddalena’s confidence in both his jiu-jitsu and stand-ups. Vreeland expects Muhammad’s angle-cutting uppercuts to be far less effective against a younger, fearless opponent who throws nearly 7 significant strikes per minute and owns a +2.4 differential. He recommends the moneyline while sprinkling KO props, convinced the champion’s usual cage-pushing style backfires here.

Gumby Vreeland echoed the underdog pick, emphasizing Maddalena’s ability to pop right back up after takedowns. Gilbert Burns averaged less than 35 seconds of control per takedown against him, and Vreeland expects a similar script with Muhammad. Once upright, Maddalena’s tight hooks and relentless forward pressure should actually force Muhammad backward, removing the champion’s preferred game plan. With a 17-fight win streak and 12 knockouts, Maddalena remains ‘wicked dangerous’ every second the fight is standing. Vreeland sees huge value on the ITD line around +150 and would rather play that than rely on judges.

Gumby Vreeland picked Manon Fiorot at –140 to outpoint Valentina Shevchenko. He stressed Fiorot’s excellent first-layer defense and even better get-ups, noting Erin Blanchfield could not keep her down for more than a second. If Shevchenko’s takedowns fail to stick, the fight becomes pure kickboxing, where Fiorot lands nearly twice as many significant strikes (about 7.0 per minute) and owns a +2.49 differential, versus Shevchenko’s +1.16. Vreeland also cited wear-and-tear: both women are 36, but Shevchenko has 20 years of pro combat, whereas Fiorot’s 12-fight win streak has been almost damage-free. Expecting a razor-close 48-47 type fight, he recommends Fiorot by decision or even the split-decision prop for a juicy return.

Gumby Vreeland labeled Alexa Grasso a live +210 underdog, arguing bookmakers are disrespecting a recent champion who went 1-1-1 across three bouts with Valentina Shevchenko. Vreeland emphasized that Natalia Silva jumps from beating a past-prime Jessica Andrade and pre-prime JJ Aldrich to facing an elite boxer/grappler who has never been finished by strikes. Silva’s 25% takedown accuracy means she likely has to trade on the feet, where Grasso owns a positive strike differential (+0.50 per minute) and championship-level cardio. Vreeland believes the drastic step up in competition and Grasso’s proven five-round durability make the dog price a must-bet.

Gumby Vreeland targeted Underdog Fantasy’s 14.99-minute fight-time line for Bekzat Almukon-Brad Katona and took the lower side at 1.6x. Vreeland reminded listeners that nine of Almukon’s 11 wins are knockouts and that he floored Umar Nurmagomedov on five-days’ notice, proof he carries early finishing power. Katona, meanwhile, has just one KO in 18 pro fights and rarely produces offense that slows opponents down. With Almukon owning a four-inch reach edge, a vicious body-kick game, and Greco throws that can put Katona in danger on the mat, Vreeland expects a stoppage well before the judges get involved, making the "lower than 14.99" prop his favorite bonus play.

Gumby Vreeland picked Jeong-yeong Lee over Daniel "Willie Cat" Santos, conceding Santos is the flashier kickboxer but arguing Lee’s grappling decides it. Santos accepted the bout on short notice after a 22-month layoff and frequently spins himself off-balance, which Vreeland believes Lee’s takedowns and slick jiu-jitsu will exploit. The Korean Tiger owns an 11-2 record with seven finishes, a Road to UFC tournament title, plus three inches of height and six inches of reach. Vreeland expects Lee to drag Santos down from failed spinning attacks, rack up control, and hunt a submission, making him a solid play at near pick-em odds.

Gumby Vreeland laid ‑175 on Mike Malott, predicting the Canadian will expose Charles “Chuck Buffalo” Radke’s reliance on single big punches. Malott owns 10 finishes in 11 wins, blends sharp boxing with a slick submission game, and has beaten stronger competition, including Trevin Giles and Adam Fugitt. Vreeland pointed out that Radke’s UFC victories came against opponents on the verge of release (Gilbert Urbina, Matt Semelsberger) and that his defensive grappling remains untested. Malott, the larger man by four inches of height, should be able to hurt Radke on the feet or clamp onto a choke if the American panics. Vreeland prefers Malott inside-the-distance at +130 but is comfortable with the moneyline as well.

Gumby Vreeland echoed the Jasudavicius play, stressing how lost Jessica Andrade looked during her three-fight skid in which she was taken down and finished twice. Vreeland highlighted Jasudavicius’ jab-into-double-leg sequence and punishing elbows from guard, tools he thinks will neutralize Andrade’s pocket bombs. The Canadian owns better per-minute takedown numbers and has never been finished, while Andrade has nine stoppage losses and far more cage mileage. Vreeland even sees potential for a late TKO on the mat given Jasudavicius’ escalating aggression in front of home crowds. At +250 the other way, Vreeland has zero interest in the Andrade lottery ticket and prefers Jasudavicius straight or inside-the-distance props.

Gumby Vreeland backed Modestas Bukauskas at essentially even money (-105), arguing the Baltic Gladiator can survive Ion Kutelaba’s trademark first-round blitz and take over once the Moldovan’s gas tank empties. Vreeland noted Kutelaba’s cardio falls off a cliff after two minutes, while Bukauskas has stuffed takedowns in his last two wins and is now sharpening his wrestling daily with heavyweight champ Tom Aspinall. Those sessions plus a three-inch reach edge have coincided with back-to-back finishes, proof Bukauskas has unlocked new stopping power. Vreeland expects Bukauskas to weather the early storm, keep the fight standing, and either score a late KO or win a clear decision. He also likes an ‘under’ on the fight time prop because both men are finish-or-be-finished types.

Gumby Vreeland called for Ivan Erslan at +250 to hand 6-0 prospect Nabaho Sterling his first loss. Erslan went 15 hard minutes in a split decision with Ion Cutelaba and showed he can land takedowns against a noted wrestler, while Sterling got taken down three times by Tafa Tookatuckus—an 0-2 UFC fighter. Vreeland doubts Sterling’s takedown defense and has not seen him fight anyone near Erslan’s level. He expects the Croatian to chain wrestle, bank top control, and test whether Sterling’s knockout power translates off his back. Vreeland labeled this a classic prospect-loss spot where the more battle-tested grappler cashes as a sizable dog.

Gumby Vreeland advised betting Bruno "Blindado" Silva as a live underdog. Barriault has been knocked out in two straight and carries cumulative damage from the Joe Pyfer stoppage, yet he owns only one career submission and averages fewer than one takedown per 15 minutes, eliminating the safer paths to victory. Silva has never been finished by strikes— even Alex Pereira could not shut his lights out— and he brings 20 knockouts in 23 wins. Vreeland sees no reliable route for Barriault to win while Silva’s power offers a clear finish condition, so he likes the plus-money moneyline and any inside-the-distance prop.

Gumby Vreeland said Bekzat Almukon should roll past Brad Katona. He pointed to Almukon’s 11-2 record with 9 knockouts and reminded listeners that he even dropped Umar Nurmagomedov on five-days’ notice. Vreeland loves Almukon’s thunderous hooks, body-kick game, and especially his Greco-style body-lock throws, arguing those tools neutralize the Canadian’s grind-heavy approach. Katona is 4-4 in the UFC with only four career finishes, and Vreeland doubts that point-fighting style can survive a four-inch reach deficit and Almukon’s KO power. Given Almukon’s proven chin, plus wrestling that “beats Katona everywhere,” Vreeland believes the Kazakh prospect is worth a wager at the current –165 number.

Building off his earlier endorsement of Mason Jones, Gumby Vreeland singled out Jones by knockout at +200 as the second leg of his 17-to-1 parlay. He believes the Welshman’s pressure boxing and heavy ground-and-pound will overwhelm a shop-worn Jeremy Stephens, who is 1-5 in his last six and has shown declining durability. Vreeland noted Jones’ willingness to posture up for strikes rather than chase submissions when fights hit the mat, making a TKO stoppage the most likely inside-distance outcome. With Stephens’ takedown defense sagging below 60% and his infamous brawling style inviting heavy counters, Gumby expects Jones to find a finish before the third horn, making the +200 KO/TKO price a standalone bet as well as a valuable parlay piece.

For his ‘fade the bad fighter’ parlay, Gumby Vreeland spotlighted Ivana Petrovic by submission at a hefty +500. He pointed out that Petrovic owns three subs in seven pro wins—including each of her last two finishes—and is far more technical on the mat than Juliana ‘Killer’ Miller, whose reactive grappling often leaves openings during scrambles. Vreeland noted Miller’s 38% takedown defense and tendency to fall to her back, predicting Petrovic will advance to dominant positions and fish for armbars or rear-nakeds. Given that Miller has yet to face an opponent willing to proactively attack her with submissions, Gumby felt the market severely underestimates Petrovic’s finishing equity.

Gumby Vreeland recommended betting Bo Nickal by decision at +210. He expects Nickal to replicate the Paul Craig game-plan—stay upright and box rather than risk grappling with a high-end submission specialist. Reinier de Ridder owns 13 career subs and is dangerous off his back, so Nickal’s American Top Team corner is likely to stress clean striking exchanges, lateral movement and sprawl-and-brawl tactics. Vreeland doubts Nickal will pursue ground-and-pound finishes, anticipating three low-risk rounds where Nickal’s boxing and range management rack up points but not a stoppage. The juicy plus-money decision prop, therefore, offers far better value than the –300 moneyline.

Gumby Vreeland still picked Cory Sandhagen to win but urged bettors to avoid the –450 moneyline, calling it “way too wide.” He argued the bout is closer because Deiveson Figueiredo has real paths—solid wrestling and a fight-changing right hand—and Sandhagen’s last outing showed he can be put in bad positions by strong grapplers. That said, Gumby expects Sandhagen’s six-inch height, two-inch reach edge and trademark angular footwork to pile up volume at distance, yet he would only price the Sandman around –230 to –250. In his view, the value lies in passing on the chalk or looking to Figueiredo at +380 for a small stab, not in laying the current number on Sandhagen.

Gumby Vreeland targeted Underdog Fantasy’s pick-em line of 36.5 significant strikes for Marina Rodriguez and advised playing the ‘higher’ side. He reasoned that Jillian Robertson’s clearest path is an early submission, but if that does not materialize the fight should extend and give Rodriguez—who averages 5.52 sig strikes per minute—plenty of time to clear 37 landed shots. Vreeland noted Rodriguez has topped that number in six of her last eight UFC appearances that reached the second round and expects Robertson’s takedown attempts to be stuffed often enough for a prolonged striking battle.

Gumby Vreeland endorsed Bo Nickal at roughly ‑300, but not for the usual ‘rag-doll wrestler’ narrative. Vreeland expects Nickal to avoid the mat altogether against Reinier de Ridder, a former ONE double champ with 13 career submissions. He referenced Nickal’s last bout with Paul Craig where the three-time NCAA champion chose to strike rather than give a high-level grappler any grappling sequences. De Ridder is a slower, upright kickboxer who was getting pieced up on the feet by Gerald Meerschaert, and Vreeland does not see him successfully shooting on Nickal’s wrestling base. Nickal’s camp has consistently built game plans around exploiting opponents’ weakest phase, so Vreeland anticipates a boxing-heavy approach that capitalizes on de Ridder’s lack of head movement and foot speed. As long as Nickal keeps it standing, Vreeland expects him to bank rounds or find a late TKO, making the money-line playable in parlays and the decision/TKO props worth a look.

Gumby Vreeland leaned toward Santiago Ponzinibbio at roughly ‑120, arguing that if both veterans are content to stand and bang, Ponzinibbio is the man who still owns real knockout juice. He pointed out that Daniel Rodriguez has not scored a KO in several fights, has started to slow noticeably after the first round, and was even taken the distance by Alex Morono in a split decision. Rodriguez, according to Vreeland, continues to absorb big shots and has now been knocked out while his own finishing pop has evaporated. Ponzinibbio, by contrast, showed in his most recent outing that his hands can still shut the lights off. Because neither fighter wrestles much, Vreeland expects a pure boxing match and believes the Argentine’s superior power gives him the higher ceiling and the better side of what is basically a pick’em line.

Gumby Vreeland advised taking Daniel Marcos as a sizeable underdog because Montel Jackson’s profile is built on flashes rather than sustained minutes. Vreeland noted Jackson has logged just 18 seconds of cage time over the past two years, fighting only once per season since 2021, which he believes will leave Jackson’s timing and angle-cutting rusty. Marcos, meanwhile, is 17-0 (4-0 UFC) and just went a full 15 with Adrian Yanez without looking hurt, showcasing the durability to drag Jackson into ‘deep waters’ where his knockout power historically fades. Vreeland also highlighted Marcos’ improved footwork and ability to cut angles, attributes that should help him stay clear of Jackson’s early left hand. Add in Marcos’ solid takedown defense that has stuffed virtually every level change he has faced, and Vreeland labeled the Peruvian a ‘bad stylistic matchup’ for a favorite who relies on quick finishes. He recommended the money-line plus money and suggested sprinkling decision props if they’re juicy.

Gumby Vreeland tabbed Cameron Smotherman as a live underdog at +120, arguing his blend of explosive boxing and proactive wrestling will neutralize Serhiy Sidey’s rangy kickboxing. Vreeland acknowledged Sidey’s power and ability to land from odd angles – attributes that produced a split series with Ramon Taveras and decent takedown defense versus Garrett Armfield – but stressed that Smotherman’s only career losses came when he was flash-knocked early. Since then Smotherman has tightened his defense and stacked quality wins over Mando Gutierrez (now a PFL semifinalist), Ryan Kuse, and most recently Jake Hadley, whom he clearly out-struck on Dana White’s Contender Series. Vreeland believes Smotherman’s willingness to change levels will keep Sidey from settling into his kicking range, and that the Texan’s cardio edge will pay dividends in rounds two and three. Because of the two-pronged attack, Vreeland projected Smotherman to win either a decision or late stoppage and labeled the money-line plus money as his favorite prelim bet.

Gumby Vreeland advised betting on Mason Jones and even sprinkling his inside-the-distance prop and the fight under. Vreeland noted that Jones’ first UFC stint looks worse on paper than it was – he went 1-1 with a clear win over current #14 featherweight David Onama and a competitive loss to Ludovit Klein, who is about to face Mateusz Gamrot. Outside the Octagon Jones has rattled off four straight wins and brings a 15-2 record with seven knockouts and three submissions. Vreeland expects Jones to lean on his underrated grappling early, a phase where Jeremy Stevens historically struggles. Stevens is 1-5 in his last six, has not recorded a victory since June 2022, and is returning for a third UFC run at age 38 after going 1-2 in PFL and 3-0 in bare-knuckle boxing. Vreeland believes Stephens still has some hand speed, but the defensive holes are too big and his takedown defense has eroded. Given the class difference, Vreeland forecasted an early Jones finish and said any number shorter than ‑500 still had parlay value.

Gumby Vreeland’s Underdog Fantasy play is the higher than 1.5 takedowns line for Jackie Amoryam against Polyana Viana. Vreeland pointed out Viana surrenders takedowns at a 65 percent rate but scrambles quickly, a combination that inflates opponents’ attempt counts. Amoryam shot seven times in her Contender Series victory and averages 2.8 attempts per 15 minutes in the UFC, so logging two completions fits her normal output. Because Underdog grades each successful mat return separately, one early takedown followed by a late-round reshoot easily clears the prop. Vreeland advised locking it in before weigh-ins push the number higher and pairing it with other fight-night selections for multiplier slips.

Gumby Vreeland urged listeners to lay the chalk on Damont Blackshear or, better yet, attack his +150 submission prop. He argued Alatengheili’s 75% takedown-defense number is fool’s gold because it was compiled against low-level wrestlers such as Kevin Croom. When Alateng finally faced a competent grappler – Gustavo Lopez – he surrendered three takedowns and was controlled for long stretches. Blackshear, by contrast, has landed multiple takedowns in four straight UFC bouts and is riding back-to-back submission wins. Vreeland noted that Alateng has been out-struck by 2.03 significant strikes per minute in the Octagon, so even brief top control from Blackshear should bank rounds. With the Mongolian Knight’s only realistic path being a low-percentage striking knockout, Vreeland projects early takedowns and a finish on the mat, calling the sub line “very playable even if the straight number is -485.”

Gumby Vreeland also sided with Matt Schnell, yet warned bettors to monitor Schnell’s fight IQ. Vreeland loves Schnell’s sharp boxing—evident when he eventually starched Sumudaerji after surviving an early thrashing—and believes the gulf in striking skill over Jimmy Flick is “stark.” He expects Schnell to stay obsessed with kick-boxing, which is ideal because Flick’s one ace is his submission game (15 career subs). If Schnell shoots reckless takedowns, Vreeland concedes Flick’s opportunistic guard could flip the script, so he prefers Schnell moneyline or Schnell-by-KO props rather than parlays that die on a fluky arm-triangle. Vreeland added that Flick’s inability to finish takedowns against Charles Johnson and his tendency to pull guard should let Schnell sprawl, reset, and pile up damage on the feet. Bottom line: Schnell wins if he trusts his hands, but bettors should avoid grappling-dependent props.

Gumby Vreeland endorsed Evan Elder at –198, noting the Missouri native was comfortably up on the scorecards against Nazim Sadykhov before a doctor stoppage cut gave him his only UFC defeat in the last two years. Elder sports a positive 0.23 significant-strike differential and mixes in 1.7 takedowns per 15 minutes, traits Vreeland believes will chew up late-replacement Gage Young. Young’s Contender Series loss to Kilian Coll highlighted the problem: when he cannot get his wrestling going, his striking defense collapses, leading to a –1.13 strike differential. On a week-and-a-half’s notice, Vreeland doubts Young can maintain the pace necessary to out-grapple Elder for three rounds. He recommends Elder in straight wagers and as a parlay anchor, projecting a decision win with possible late ground-and-pound finish.

Gumby Vreeland advised betting Jaqueline Amorim despite her ballooning money-line price (-700 range) by attacking inside-the-distance or submission props. He argued Polyana Viana is a tailor-made victim: she was just mauled on the mat by Jillian Robertson—essentially the older, less dynamic version of Amorim—and owns submission losses to Yasmin Lucindo, Tabitha Ricci, and Veronica Hardy. Amorim, a former LFA champ and world-champion jiu-jitsu medalist who routinely wins from half-guard or back takes, will have an easier time securing takedowns than in her UFC debut because Viana’s first-layer defense is weak. Vreeland also noted Amorim’s three-inch reach and improving jab give her safer entries than Robertson had. He predicts a quick finish, making Amorim Round-1 sub or ITD an attractive prop and ruling out any long-shot punt on the heavy underdog.

Gumby Vreeland sided with debutant Malcolm Wellmaker at roughly ‑118, framing him as the rightful favorite over Cameron Saaiman. He highlighted Wellmaker’s elite distance management—remarkable for someone balancing MMA with a full-time pipe-fitter job—plus quick hands that set up two straight TKO wins coming in. Vreeland compared that profile to Peyton Talbott, the rangy striker who just knocked Saaiman out, and said Wellmaker offers the same problems: sniping straight shots before Saaiman can close. Saaiman’s three UFC wins came over fringe talents (Josh Wang-Kim, Steven Koslow, and Terrence Mitchell), so Vreeland doubts his ceiling once he faces a technician who dictates range. Because Wellmaker’s Contender Series numbers show +0.40 significant strikes per minute and 66% takedown defense, Vreeland sees no clear path for Saaiman outside a brawl. He recommends betting Wellmaker on the money-line and sprinkling KO/TKO props given the South African’s recent stoppage loss.

Gumby Vreeland said Chelsea Chandler is worth a play at +240 because Edwards is a notoriously poor defensive grappler. He highlighted Edwards giving up six takedowns to Ailin Perez and noted Chelsea’s underrated BJJ and size advantage after years at 145. Gumby added that Edwards often lands only "pitter-patter" volume and backs straight out, while Chandler is "weirdly overly aggressive" and can steal rounds even if she doesn't get the takedown. With both women having weight-cut issues, he expects Chandler’s pressure and ground edge to decide the fight and sees value on the two-way moneyline instead of laying ‑290 on Edwards.

For his Hungry-Man John superfan parlay, Gumby Vreeland anchored the ticket with Malcolm Wellmaker by knockout at +275 against Cameron Simon. Vreeland, a self-described ‘Cameron Simon hater,’ cited Simon’s poor defense (5.9 significant strikes absorbed per minute) and habit of getting rocked early. Wellmaker brings six straight first-round KOs, a 78 % career finish rate, and crisp boxing that Vreeland praised in last episode’s breakdown. Regional footage shows Wellmaker defending 83 % of takedowns, so Simon’s fallback wrestle route may still end in elbows and hammer-fists. Vreeland expects the newcomer to clip Simon inside two rounds and likes pairing the +275 KO line with Dalby-by-decision for a 15-to-1 payout.