Guy Boston

Guy Boston recommends betting Cincinnati Reds on the first five innings moneyline today against Milwaukee to avoid bullpen uncertainties. He emphasizes Milwaukee's bullpen, which has been shaky and heavily taxed recently, compared to Cincinnati's fresher relief arms. This strategy looks wiser to him considering volatility in late-game pitching, preferring the shorter, safer first-five innings wager.

Guy Boston sees betting value playing under 1.5 hits, runs and RBIs for Spencer Steer today due to Steer's struggles against left-handed pitching. Although he's somewhat reluctant due to Nestor Cortes's disastrous first start (5 home runs allowed), he still identifies Steer's splits against lefties as highly problematic enough to lean unders here despite Cortes' recent struggles.

Guy Boston expects Cincinnati's offense to rebound from their recent struggles (shut out in back-to-back games) against Nestor Cortes today. He highlights Cortes' exceptionally poor first start against the Yankees, where he allowed five home runs, five walks and eight earned runs in only two innings. While acknowledging the Reds typically fare worse against lefties, Guy Boston points to Cortes' fastball-cutter pitch arsenal matching favorable for Cincinnati hitters who excel against velocity-driven pitchers.

Guy Boston expects a strong offensive performance from the Yankees, citing their momentum after a late rally yesterday, when they scored three runs in the bottom of the ninth inning despite otherwise quiet offensive production earlier in the game. Given the strength of their lineup overall, he anticipates this offense using that late-game momentum as a springboard today, ultimately liking the Yankees team total over.

Guy Boston sees Merrill Kelly potentially struggling today versus the Yankees given his significant difficulties against left-handed batters. He notes Kelly's vulnerability is particularly concerning given the Yankees' strong lefty hitters including Wells, Jasson Dominguez, Cody Bellinger, and Jazz Chisholm. Given Kelly's splits, this sets a solid stage for Yankees lefties to have an impactful game offensively.

Guy Boston suggests fading Matt Wallner, specifically targeting under 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs or under 0.5 runs. His reasoning centers on Hunter Brown's fastball-heavy pitch mix, noting Wallner's weighted on-base average drops significantly against fastballs and sinkers. Although Wallner can handle cutters, Brown rarely relies on that pitch. This pitching matchup, combined with the projected low-scoring environment, leads Guy Boston to anticipate struggles for Wallner, making the unders appealing betting options.

Guy Boston advised betting against Nick Lodolo again today, highlighting his consistently poor pitching numbers despite a tolerable batting average allowed (.231). Lodolo struggled significantly last season with a concerning 4.76 ERA and a .290 BABIP, reflecting frequent hard contact allowed. He has already surrendered at least two runs once this season against the Giants and exhibited long-term patterns of vulnerability, having a notably poor finish to last season. Although the Brewers offense is neither elite nor terrible against left-handed pitching, sitting about league-average last year and again in early 2025, Guy Boston noted they are capable enough offensively to capitalize against Lodolo's persistent shortcomings. Despite the prop's slightly unfavorable juice (-150), Guy Boston sees clear metrics supporting the Brewers scoring at least two runs on Lodolo and considers this a highly actionable wager.

Guy Boston backs Nick Lodolo to surrender at least 2 earned runs against the Brewers, pointing to Lodolo's consistent struggles last season. Lodolo exceeded this earned run total in 71% of his outings last year and in his only game so far in 2025 against the Giants. He notably ended last year on a 10-game streak surpassing this line, averaging 2.9 earned runs allowed per start in 2024. His one start last season against Milwaukee resulted in him allowing 3 earned runs. While the Brewers were only middle-of-the-road against left-handed pitchers last season and this year, Lodolo's consistently poor performances make Guy Boston confident in this play, even at the higher juice of -150 odds.

Guy Boston recommended betting the under on Christian Walker's 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs prop versus the Twins. Walker has hit this under consistently so far, cashing five straight games after an initial single-game over against the Mets. Walker is averaging only 0.67 combined hits, runs, and RBIs per game this season. Last season, he only eclipsed this line in 52% of games, indicating relatively average production. Walker faces Joe Ryan today, a solid matchup despite Walker only having a single hit in three previous plate appearances. Ryan had a 3.60 ERA last year and allowed just a .229 batting average against right-handed batters. The Astros offense has struggled early this season, further supporting the under play. Guy Boston sees Walker continuing his recent struggles with limited production today, making the under at -150 odds a worthwhile consideration.

Guy Boston advised taking Charlie Morton to allow more than 4.5 hits against the Red Sox. Morton cashed this line consistently last year, reaching it 67% of the time (20 out of 30 games) with an average of 5.13 hits allowed per game. He allowed seven hits in his season debut this year against Toronto. Additionally, Boston was elite last year against right-handed pitchers, third in batting average and first in BABIP. Despite their sluggish current start, the Red Sox lineup showed signs of heating up with 10 hits the previous day. Zach Eflin gave up eight hits to Boston yesterday, suggesting a favorable spot for them against Morton, who allowed a .251 batting average overall last year. Guy Boston sees Morton's vulnerability and Boston's improving offense making this a solid wager despite mediocre payout odds (-145).

Guy Boston recommended taking Kris Bryant over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs against the Phillies due to favorable matchup data. Bryant has a .300 batting average in 12 career plate appearances versus Phillies starter Taijuan Walker, including a home run. Furthermore, Bryant historically performs significantly better against right-handed pitchers (.253 batting average, 100.7 WRC+ compared to .218/.69.8 WRC+ overall last season). Conversely, Taijuan Walker struggled heavily against right-handed hitters last season, posting a 7.62 ERA, .337 opponent batting average, three HR per nine innings, and a massive .445 WOBA. Despite Bryant's slow start, Guy Boston sees value in taking this prop due to the matchup and attractive plus-money odds (+115), suggesting a half-unit bet due to risk but expecting Bryant to deliver in today's game.

Guy Boston strongly recommended Tarik Skubal over 6.5 strikeouts versus Seattle. Despite only two strikeouts against an elite Dodgers lineup in his opener, Skubal had a 62% hit rate on this prop last year (21 of 34 starts), averaging 7.29 Ks per game. He has dominated Seattle specifically, striking out nine Mariners in each of his two matchups last season. Seattle remains one of MLB's most strikeout-prone teams, notably finishing bottom four in strikeout percentage against left-handed pitchers. Skubal, who ranked in the 92nd percentile for Ks per nine innings and 96th percentile in K rate last year, lines up very well here for a high-strikeout outing.

Guy Boston advised betting on Bobby Witt Jr. to record a hit, noting his strong consistent record. Witt has cashed this over in all five games this year and recorded hits in 79% of his games last season (132 of 167 games). Specifically against Milwaukee, Witt hit this over in four of his last five matchups, averaging a notable 1.4 hits per game. His road performance is impressive as well—74% hit rate and averaging 1.14 hits per game away from home—highlighting his tendency to perform better on the road. Witt also has favorable splits against right-handed pitchers (.336 batting average vs RH pitching) and Brewers starter Freddy Peralta has worse splits vs RH batters (.240 batting average allowed, 4.72 ERA vs righties), positioning Witt strongly for this prop bet.

Guy Boston recommended betting Freddy Peralta over 1.5 earned runs in his matchup against the Royals. Peralta allowed two earned runs in his only start this year against the Yankees, and going back to last season he cashed this over in 61% (20 of 33) of his starts. His average earned runs per game last season was 2.24, significantly higher at home (72% hit rate, 13 of 18 home starts, averaging 2.5 ER at home). Peralta's struggles at home coupled with the Royals' decent hitting start this season—ranking 13th in batting average and scoring two or more runs in four of five games—support this negative outlook. Royals' hitters also have solid batting averages (.261 Perez, .267 Pasquantino, .336 Witt) against right-handed pitching, adding additional evidence for Peralta allowing multiple runs today.

Guy Boston recommends betting the Cubs moneyline at around -120, expressing confusion over why the line isn't higher given the matchup against Oakland. Cubs pitcher Ben Brown throws predominantly fastballs, a pitch that Oakland hitters notably struggle to handle, making this a favorable matchup. Boston contrasts Cubs taking two games from Arizona, a respectable accomplishment, with Oakland’s two wins against Seattle which he considers less impressive. He expects the Cubs to capitalize on Oakland pitcher Estes' vulnerabilities, emphasizing that betting the Cubs at this price is a clear and actionable option.

Guy Boston strongly leans toward betting the Dodgers team total over 4.5 (-118) against Braves pitcher Grant Holmes. Boston notes the Dodgers offense has reached this run total in all games thus far in the season, solidifying confidence in their potent lineup. Though Holmes' historical data against Dodgers hitters is limited, available numbers have not been promising. Boston acknowledges the steep overall moneyline odds for LA (-220) aren't particularly valuable, instead isolating the Dodgers' scoring efficiency as the attractive betting angle, projecting continued offensive dominance.

Guy Boston highlights Cubs pitcher Ben Brown as having a favorable matchup today against the Oakland Athletics. Brown showed positive development last season, primarily throwing a fastball—a pitch Oakland notably struggles hitting. Against Oakland’s weak offensive lineup, Brown’s pitch mix aligns ideally. Guy Boston clearly sees betting value backing Brown and fading Oakland's bats, given their consistent propensity to struggle versus effective fastballs.

Guy Boston advises targeting San Diego Padres team total over 3.5 runs, primarily due to their strong matchup against Cleveland's Luis Ortiz. Ortiz historically struggles against this Padres lineup, posting a .330 expected batting average and .530 slugging percentage across nearly 60 plate appearances. Ortiz predominantly throws fastballs and sliders—pitch types San Diego's lineup excels against, ranking Number One in runs above average versus sliders last season. Boston acknowledges Kyle Hart's questionable pitching resume for San Diego but still confidently recommends betting the Padres team total given Ortiz's tendencies and the Padres' recent dominance sweeping Atlanta.

Guy Boston favors betting the Toronto Blue Jays team total over (set at 3.5), emphasizing lingering concerns about Washington's pitching staff and inconsistent early offensive production from Toronto. While Toronto has shown flashes offensively, they've lacked consistency early, which Guy Boston expects to positively regress today. He explicitly states the full game total isn't ideal due to mistrust in Washington's offense, but a Toronto-only team total provides value. At good odds, Guy Boston sees this bet as a strong opportunity given Toronto's potential coupled with Washington's shaky pitching infrastructure.

Guy Boston strongly supports betting the Astros money line (currently -122) today against the Giants. He highlights that Houston starter Ronel Blanco had a solid season last year, offering a pitching advantage over Giants' Jordan Hicks. Boston also points out that San Francisco's scoring in Cincinnati was largely due to Great American Ballpark's favorable hitting conditions rather than genuine offensive capability. Now facing tougher pitching conditions in Houston—who've already found success at home and enjoy a bullpen advantage—he believes the market significantly undervalues Houston and strongly recommends betting their money line and team total over 3.5.

Guy Boston recommends betting Nelson Cruz under 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI against a difficult pitching matchup with Bowden Francis. Cruz has yet to exceed this total in the current season, and Francis notably limited right-handed hitters to an opponent batting average of .194 last year. Francis consistently throws effective high-zone fastballs, a pitch expected to neutralize Cruz's offensive strength. Given Francis's skillset and Cruz's sluggish start, Guy Boston identifies robust value in taking the under on Cruz's HRR prop.

Guy Boston likes betting the Toronto Blue Jays in the first five innings versus the Nationals, highlighting a clear pitching mismatch. Michael Soroka had unimpressive statistics last season (4.75 ERA) and heavily relies on his slider—a pitch Toronto's lineup hits effectively, ranking top six against sliders last season. In contrast, Blue Jays pitcher Bowden Francis had a solid season and utilizes multiple pitches—fastballs, curves, and splitters—against which Washington ranks poorly. Given Toronto consistently leading early in recent wins and Soroka's vulnerabilities paired with home-field comfort for the Blue Jays, Guy Boston finds strong value in betting the Jays -0.5 runs in the first five innings rather than paying a high price for the full-game money line.

Guy Boston identifies the Pittsburgh Pirates money line (+170) as an intriguing betting opportunity despite initially leaning toward the under. The Pirates' offensive lineup against right-handed pitching might actually present sneaky upside. Drew Rasmussen, who starts for Tampa Bay today, regularly utilizes a cutter, a pitch Pittsburgh deals with fairly effectively. Combined with the attractive plus-money odds, Guy Boston suggests an additional play of Pittsburgh on the money line offers decent value today, expressing skepticism in justifying a wager on Tampa Bay at steep odds.

Guy Boston recommends backing the Reds as underdogs today, specifically praising Brady Singer's matchup against the Texas Rangers lineup. Singer relies heavily on sliders and sinkers—two offerings Texas notably struggles to hit. Additionally, his fastball, another primary pitch, aligns favorably against Texas hitters. On the other side, Texas starter Kumar Rocker leans heavily on his fastball, a pitch Cincinnati has historically feasted upon, especially at home in Great American Ballpark. Given these advantageous pitch mix conditions for Singer and the Reds' offense combined with a comfortable home environment, Guy Boston sees strong value in taking Cincinnati as an underdog today, also liking the total over (recommends buying down to 8.5 runs).

Guy Boston suggests targeting Miami pitcher Cal Quantrill's hits allowed total as an actionable bet against the Mets today. He highlights Quantrill's very poor numbers last season—allowing over 4.5 hits in 22 of 29 total starts and hitting the under narrowly in most of the remaining games. Guy Boston points out that the Mets have hitters like Lindor and Soto who historically hit righties effectively. Although he notes possible early-season risks due to limited pitch counts if Quantrill gets shelled early, he favors the over 3.5 hits allowed at -160 and strongly leans toward over 4.5 hits (+money odds) as a strong value option.

Guy Boston sees potential in playing Phillies' offensive totals today against German Marquez. Citing significant historical success, Phillies hitters own strong metrics versus Marquez, making a First 5 innings' team total over of 2.5 runs a strong option (-115). Guy Boston notes that Philadelphia has struggled offensively early this season, yet emphasizes Marquez's vulnerability against Phillies bats historically—suggesting regression to the mean today. Marquez’s reliance on fastballs and sliders is beneficial for Phillies hitters who traditionally hit those pitches extremely well. Although recognizing risk regarding early-season betting volatility, Guy Boston ultimately is bullish about the Phillies' bats finally coming alive in this matchup.

Guy Boston targets Rob Refsnyder for his debut today, taking under 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs as a good value pick (-115). Despite Refsnyder's decent small-sample record of 3-for-6 with a home run against Orioles pitcher Cade Povich, Guy Boston expects Refsnyder to struggle given the circumstances of his season debut coupled with matchup data. While he hits fastballs well, he notably struggles against secondary pitches including curveballs (43% K rate) and sliders—both key pitches in Povich's arsenal. Guy Boston emphasizes Refsnyder's likely cold start coupled with historical struggles against the Orioles to back this bet, seeing clear betting value here rather than expensive total bases markets.

Guy Boston advises fading the Red Sox today, specifically targeting Baltimore's team total over and their money line as attractive betting options. He questions Boston starter Sean Newcomb's reliability, citing his lack of standout performances with the Athletics and prior stops in Chicago and Atlanta. The Red Sox offense has struggled thus far and may continue to struggle versus Orioles lefty pitcher Cade Povich. Povich holds Red Sox hitters to a 237 batting average and a strong 2.5% walk rate across nearly 40 plate appearances. With Red Sox key hitters like Bregman, Story, and Devers yet to find their groove early in this season, Guy Boston sees value in betting Baltimore moneyline at -142 and Orioles' team total over.

Guy Boston suggests strongly considering a bet on the Royals offense against a Brewers pitching staff facing uncertainty. Projected starter Bryan Hudson’s limited pitch repertoire (fastball, cutter, slider only) doesn't present significant challenge. Furthermore, the Brewers offense has yet to prove consistency besides a fluky 20-run performance and otherwise looks shaky. Royals starter Chris Bubik's small sample numbers against current Brewers hitters (expected batting average of .210 and expected slugging under .250) offer further confidence. Guy Boston feels the market undervalues the Royals at near-even odds (-102), predicting about five runs from Kansas City and supporting the game total over as well.

Guy Boston advises betting the under on the White Sox team total (currently set at 3.5) or the first five innings total under against the Twins. Despite scoring 8 runs on opening day, the White Sox offense looked weak afterward, scoring zero and two runs in subsequent games. Historical data supports this stance as Minnesota pitcher Chris Paddack boasts strong numbers against White Sox hitters—a 35% K rate and .154 batting average against in limited matchups. Guy Boston also mentions Paddack's projected earned runs under (1.5) could be another angle, given his dominant metrics despite allowing two runs against White Sox last season. Overall, fading Chicago's weak run production stands out as the actionable recommendation here.

Guy Boston recommended betting Arizona's team total over versus Matthew Boyd and the Cubs today, highlighting strong matchup advantages for Diamondbacks hitters. Boston extensively discussed how effectively the Arizona offense performed last year against left-handed pitching—ranking first or second across several categories including OPS, slugging percentage, and batting average against lefties. He pointed to Boyd's pitch mix as favorable for Arizona and suggested betting a team total of 3.5 or 4.5, depending on juice, forecasting a high-scoring outing for Arizona given Boyd's vulnerability and Arizona's elite splits versus left-handed pitchers.

Although leaning toward San Diego based on pitching and hitting matchups, Guy Boston cautioned strongly against betting them today. He stressed that San Diego starting a four-game season-opening sweep against a high-caliber team like Atlanta is extremely difficult. This situational angle made Boston wary of laying money on San Diego, suggesting instead that regression sets in today with Atlanta bouncing back at plus odds. He indicated the improbability of a good Braves team suffering such a lengthy losing streak to open the series and saw inherent value with Atlanta due to this regression scenario.