Guy Boston Sports advocated taking the Marlins moneyline—sprinkling a smaller play on the first-five under—because Ryan Weathers’ southpaw profile is a nightmare for the Giants’ lineup. San Francisco owns bottom-tier numbers against left-handed fastballs, a pitch that comprises roughly 50% of Weathers’ mix. In a 21-PA sample versus the current Giants roster, Weathers sports a 24% strikeout rate, 0% walk rate, .200 batting average against and an xwOBA of .249. The tout admitted Hayden Birdsong has real talent but noted Miami’s offense only needs a league-average showing to cash as short dogs if Weathers controls contact. Concerns about either young starter blowing up kept him from a full-unit exposure, so he recommended quarter-unit positions on both the Marlins ML and the first-five under, banking on a 2-2 type start before bullpens decide it.

Guy Boston Sports leaned to the Angels moneyline and the full-game over, arguing that Gavin Williams is being priced like a lockdown arm even though his recent form mirrors Cleveland’s volatile offense. The Guardians have scored in bunches only sporadically—just a few truly big innings in their last ten games—while Williams has mirrored that inconsistency with occasional command lapses. The tout expects a tighter contest than the ‑170 Guardians tag suggests, projecting something like 4-4 heading to late innings. Because Josh Kachanoitz gives the Angels a serviceable foil and both bullpens have been middling, he views L.A. at plus money and the total as the only playable angles, essentially betting on Williams’ volatility and Cleveland’s lack of steady run production.

Guy Boston Sports backed the full-game over 8 runs, even with Kevin Gausman on the hill, because several data points suggest this number is short. Toronto and Oakland have already combined for 12-0, 11-7 and 8-7 finals in the series, showing the matchup can erupt. The tout pointed out that the Jays’ bullpen is both banged up and overworked, while the A’s relief corps “has definitely lost its wheels,” giving bettors multiple late-inning paths to extra runs once Gausman and JP Sears exit. On a pitch-mix level, he noted Toronto has suddenly begun crushing sliders—Sears’ primary secondary offering—while Oakland ranks 7th versus four-seamers and 1st against splitters over the past 30 days, two pitches that make up almost all of Gausman’s attack. With wind not a concern and the opener sitting at a flat 8 (7.5 if you buy it juiced), he argued the market is pricing Gausman’s ceiling without respecting the bullpens or the A’s improved split-specific bats, making the over his favorite way to play the game.

Guy Boston Sports leaned to the Red Sox at –121 and the full-game under, citing what he called a "vast" separation between Garrett Crochet and Bryce Elder. He expects Crochet’s slider/fastball combo to quiet Atlanta’s power bats after Boston already held the Braves to one run in Game 1. While Elder is getting "more flak than he deserves," the tout still trusts Crochet’s swing-and-miss stuff far more and thinks both starters can keep the scoreboard reasonable, projecting something in the five-runs-per-side range at most. Because his under lean is built on Crochet controlling the game, he views the Red Sox moneyline as the more actionable bet.

Guy Boston Sports said the best way to attack Rangers–Cardinals is the first-five under because Jacob deGrom has been lights-out early in games since returning from the IL and should "mute" a middle-of-the-pack Cardinals lineup. He added that Texas’ offense can police Erick Fedde enough to keep the scoring down on the other side, but not so much that the game shoots past the number before the bullpens arrive. He toyed with a Rangers first-five run-line play but ultimately viewed the low-scoring first half as the clearest edge, pointing to deGrom’s dominant pitch mix and Fedde’s respectable history versus current Rangers hitters as supporting data.

Guy Boston Sports played DJ LeMahieu under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs at -155 on DraftKings, calling it strong enough to stand alone yet serving as the closer in his five-leg parlay. LeMahieu has failed to eclipse this line in eight of his last ten games, averaging just 1.1 combined events in that span. The ice-cold start continues season-long: he has stayed under in 10 of 12 appearances with New York this year (83%). Historical data backs the fade—last season he cashed the under in 68% of games and two of his last three matchups with the Dodgers. Outlier’s feed adds an 8-of-9 under streak (89%) across his most recent road contests. The matchup with Tony Gonsolin further tilts things toward the under. LeMahieu is 0-for-2 lifetime against the right-hander and sports a .184 average with a 44.3 wRC+ overall in 2025; versus righties, the average dips to .158 (wRC+ 71.4 on a tiny sample). Gonsolin limits right-handed hitters to a .255 average while his wOBA and ERA figures fall when facing same-handed bats, giving the tout confidence that LeMahieu’s sluggish barrel stays quiet in Los Angeles.

Guy Boston Sports backed Ketel Marte to record at least one hit at -245 on DraftKings, plugging the over 0.5 hits into his Freaky Friday five-leg parlay. Marte has logged a knock in nine straight games, averaging 1.3 hits over his last ten. For the season he has hit safely in 22 of 30 contests (73%) with a full-season average of exactly one hit per game. Head-to-head data is equally encouraging: Marte has cashed this prop in six of his last seven meetings with Washington (86%, 1.43 hits per game) and is 4-for-10 lifetime off scheduled starter Jake Irvin (.444 AVG, .889 SLG). The switch-hitter’s splits tilt the matchup further. Against right-handed pitchers he owns a .309 average, .275 BABIP, 43.1% hard-hit rate and a gaudy 196.7 wRC+, all superior to his overall numbers. Irvin, meanwhile, sees every major stat worsen versus left-handed bats (.247 AVG, .259 BABIP, 4.23 ERA). Given Marte will hit left-handed and has already shown success versus Irvin, the tout labeled this leg the most juice-worthy line of the ticket.

Guy Boston Sports took Javier Baez over 0.5 strikeouts at ‑190 on DraftKings. Baez has struck out in 8-of-10 games and 31-of-46 on the year (67%), averaging 0.87 Ks per game. Outlier shows a current six-game whiff streak at 1.2 Ks per contest. Division familiarity adds to the case: Baez has fanned in seven straight vs Kansas City, including all three meetings this season. Against scheduled starter Seth Lugo, Baez is 4-K in 14 plate appearances (28.6% K rate) despite a .308 average. Split data is friendly: Baez’s K rate rises to 25.7% vs righties, and Lugo’s numbers improve versus same-handed hitters. The host labeled it another “safe” alternate line to keep the five-leg Freaky Friday parlay alive.

Guy Boston Sports recommended taking Lawrence Butler to record at least one hit (-215 DK alt line). Butler has hit safely in 9-of-10 and 14-of-20, and owns a 71% season hit rate (37-for-52) while averaging 1.02 hits per game. Outlier flags a 10-of-11 run (91%) with 1.4 hits per game in that span. In four career meetings with Toronto he’s 6-for-4 on the prop, averaging 1.5 hits. The matchup sweetener is Chris Bassitt: Butler is 3-for-3 lifetime off the right-hander and his numbers spike versus RHP (BA, BABIP, hard-hit %, wRC+ all up). Bassitt is giving up a .323 average and .404 BABIP to lefties, so the tout views Butler’s single as a high-probability second leg in the parlay.

Guy Boston Sports said Wyatt Langford is a safe add to a parlay at over 0.5 strikeouts on DraftKings (-195). The host leaned on multiple hit-rate splits: 9-of-10, 18-of-20 and 34-of-47 games this season, all above 70%, with Langford averaging exactly one K per game. Outlier’s data shows 13-of-his-last-14 (93%) cashing. He whiffs 27.6% of the time versus left-handers, and he draws LHP Matthew Liberatore, whose overall 21.5% K rate (20.8% v. righties) is still high enough to push Langford over the alternate line. Historical matchup is a modest 2-for-3 on the over against the Cardinals. The tout framed it as a low-variance leg to anchor the Freaky Friday five-teamer.

Guy Boston Sports laid the small number (-120) on the Yankees over the visiting Dodgers. The edge starts on the mound: Max Fried holds current LA hitters to a .201 average with a 27 % K-rate over 203 plate appearances, whereas Tony Gonsolin’s career 4.34 xFIP versus New York’s projected lineup and diminished slider velocity make him vulnerable. More importantly, the Dodgers’ bullpen is a mash unit—‘seven relievers on the IL, most of whom would be high-leverage on other clubs’—so even if Fried exits early the Yankees still enjoy a pitching edge for all nine frames. Offensively both teams are elite, forcing Guy to ‘lean over out of fear,’ but he believes New York’s healthier relief corps and Fried’s current form swing the game. He projected a 6-4 Yankees win and locked them in at anything up to ‑125.

Guy Boston Sports gave a cautious thumbs-up to Seattle moneyline and the full-game under versus Minnesota. He likes the matchup of Brian Wu—‘dealing’ despite Seattle dropping four of five—against rookie Zebby Matthews, who struck out nine Royals in four innings but still owns only one big-league start. The handicap hinges on keeping the game low-scoring: the Twins offence cooled after its 12-game heater, while the Mariners have managed just three runs across their last two contests. With T-Mobile Park suppressing homers and both starters boasting double-digit swinging-strike rates, he envisions something like a 4-2 Mariners win. The only reservation is Seattle’s inconsistent bats, so he advises pairing M’s ML (around ‑120) with under 8 for a correlated parlay or smaller split-stake.

Guy Boston Sports prefers attacking Arizona early against Washington. He recommended the Diamondbacks first-five run line (-0.5 at plus odds) and an Arizona team total over 4.5. His reasoning: Merrill Kelly is admittedly volatile, but Jake Irvin’s underlying metrics (4.46 xFIP, 1.5 HR/9) give Arizona’s righty-heavy lineup a clear edge. The Nationals have exploded for nine runs in back-to-back games and are ‘due for regression,’ while Arizona is coming off a disappointing series loss to Pittsburgh and should be fully focused. Because both bullpens are ‘pretty volatile,’ he wants exposure before late-inning chaos and noted Chase Field’s hitting weather plus the humidor now plays closer to neutral than pitcher-friendly. He projected five early runs for the Snakes and a 6-4 final, making the F5 run line and team total his preferred angles over laying a full-game price on the home favorite.

Guy Boston Sports circled Padres-Pirates first-five under 4.5 runs as an official play. He trusts both starters right now: Nick Pivetta has rebounded from a Coors Field blow-up to post back-to-back six-inning gems versus Seattle and Atlanta (one earned run, seven strikeouts in each), while Mitch Keller has ‘been pitching really, really well’ and profiles as the toughest arm San Diego has faced since their two soft matchups with Miami. Offensively he is selling the Padres—despite two big games in Miami they still rank bottom-third in wRC+ during May—and notes Pittsburgh cashes the full-game under in 54 % of all contests and 50 % on the road. Because Keller pounds the zone and Pivetta’s four-pitch mix neutralizes the Bucs’ few left-handed threats, he expects a 1-1 or 2-1 score after five and would even nibble at the Pirates F5 team total under 1.5 (-130) as a correlated play.

After yesterday’s miss, Guy Boston Sports is doubling down on Houston over 3.5 runs at –140. The Astros average 4.7 runs at Minute Maid and face Ryan Pepiot’s four-seam/change/slider trio—three pitches Houston ranks top-10 against by Statcast run values. Pepiot already surrendered three earned in six innings when these clubs met April 10th, and Tampa’s bullpen is running on fumes after covering 10 frames the past two days. Guy noted Houston is league-best in hard-hit rate at home (46 %) and has scored 4+ in 11 of their last 15 at the Juice Box. Even if Framber Valdez stumbles again, he prefers isolating the bats over laying –160 on the moneyline, projecting a 5-3 Astros win.

Guy Boston Sports locked in Royals–Tigers first-five under 4.5. Seth Lugo has stayed under that number in five of six home starts, including four straight games that were 1–0 or 1–1 through five. Casey Mize has given up more than two earned just twice all year, and one of those came at Coors Field when his own offense exploded for nine runs. Kauffman Stadium weather shows a modest cross-wind, not the kind that turns fly balls into homers. Detroit’s lineup ranks 27th in ISO on the road, while Kansas City has been shut out four times in the last 15 days. If both pitchers keep the ball on the ground—each owns a 50 %+ ground-ball rate—he sees at most a 2–2 score entering the sixth, making the under a clear play.

Guy Boston Sports prefers St. Louis’ team-total over 4 and a half (and would play Cards ML if necessary). He trusts Matthew Liberatore’s sinker/slider combo to keep Texas in check while St. Louis’ bats do the heavy lifting against Jack Leiter and a middling Rangers bullpen. Over the last 10 games the Cardinals have scored 4+ runs six times, while Texas has topped three runs only twice. Liberatore sports a 31 % whiff rate on sliders, the exact pitch that has limited Adolis Garcia, Josh Jung and Wyatt Langford to a combined .187 xBA versus lefties. On offense St. Louis ranks 8th in hard-hit rate since May 15 and faces Leiter’s 13 % walk rate, a recipe for crooked numbers. With the better starter, hotter lineup and nine full at-bats as the road team, he projected 5–6 runs for the Redbirds and called the team total the cleaner path than laying the full game juice.

Guy Boston Sports grabbed Boston +1.5 runs (and a sprinkle on the moneyline) against Atlanta. The Braves burned seven relievers during yesterday’s doubleheader in Philadelphia, leaving an over-taxed bullpen behind Grant Holmes. He conceded Holmes probably grades out better than Lucas Giolito, but expects diminished velocity from the rookie after throwing 93 pitches five days ago. Fenway is slated for 10 mph wind straight out to left-center, a boost to Boston’s pull-heavy lineup that was just shut down in the twin bill and is due for positive regression. He also cited a fade spot on offenses that explode for 8+ runs the previous game—teams in that situation cover the run line only 42 % of the time the next day on his database. With Atlanta’s pen gassed and the Sox offense primed to bounce back, he called the home dog plus the run and a half his favorite side on the board.

Guy Boston Sports played the full-game under in Rockies–Mets, projecting something like a 4-3 Mets win. He said the Citi Field forecast is cold and wet, which historically knocks roughly 8–10 % off home-run production according to his weather model. Kyle Freeland owns a 55 % ground-ball rate and has allowed two runs or fewer in three of his last four road starts, while David Peterson has neutralized lefties all season and gets a Colorado lineup that ranks 29th in wRC+ away from Coors. Neither bullpen has been overworked this week, giving him confidence the game stays under the posted 8.5 total even if one starter wobbles.

Guy Boston Sports locked in the first-five under 4.5 (-109) between Cleveland and the Angels, citing two extreme ground-ball artists. Jose Soriano owns a 4.1 GB/FB rate overall and 3.9 on the road, while Luis Ortiz posts a healthy 1.2 mark at home. Both lineups profile as fly-ball heavy—Cleveland struggles if it can’t elevate and the Angels put the ball in the air against righties on the road—so a steady diet of sinkers should keep the scoreboard quiet early. Recent form backs it up: Soriano has stayed under this number in four of six road starts; Ortiz in three of four at home. Team trend data from his proprietary dashboard shows the Angels averaging 0.3 first-five runs and Cleveland 1.67 over their last three games. With neither pitcher missing bats but piling up worm-killers, he expects five clean innings before the bullpens take over, making the F5 under his lone official play for this game.

Guy Boston Sports backed San Francisco in every possible way—first-five moneyline, first-five run line (-0.5 at ‑115) and even full-game run line at plus money—because the matchup tilts heavily toward Kyle Harrison. Harrison has strung together multiple six-inning, two-run outings while Cal Quantrill’s 13 % walk rate and volatile cutter/fastball mix make him, in Guy’s words, "a ticking time bomb." The Giants’ bullpen is rested after a night off, whereas Miami’s relief corps remains suspect, and the Marlins rank dead last at home versus left-handed pitching in wRC+, OPS, ISO and SLG. San Francisco’s offense has been mediocre, but facing a righty who nibbles could be the antidote. He also mentioned a Marlins team-total under 3.5 as a viable add-on play given Miami’s inability to square up southpaws.

Guy Boston Sports said the only way he can attack Blue Jays–A’s is to grab Oakland at +145 and pair it with the full-game under. Jeffrey Springs gives the Athletics a left-handed look against a Toronto lineup that already puts a ton of balls on the ground versus southpaws. On the other side, Chris Bassitt’s home splits (1.2 ERA, 2.3 FIP, 28 % strikeout rate, 1.7 GB/FB) scream run suppression in Rogers Centre. Toronto owns the better offense, the better starter and the better bullpen, but at this number the market has over-corrected; he is willing to fade all three edges. He expects both starters to lean on ground-ball heavy arsenals, the chilly Toronto weather to keep the ball in the park and a grind-it-out game that finishes below the posted total while giving the live dog a path to cash.

Guy Boston Sports recommended a first-five-innings play on the White Sox. Sean Burke is finally flashing the form he hyped in March, while Zach Eflin has been flat-out bad. Baltimore’s bats have perked up—five-plus runs in seven of their last ten—but Chicago’s lineup is also showing signs of life and can give Burke early support. Because the White Sox bullpen is a dumpster fire, he wants no part of the full game; instead he’ll take Chicago F5 at plus money and get out before the relievers can blow it. For totals players he leans full-game over (shaky pens on both sides) but would even consider an F5 under if you strictly trust the Burke vs. Eflin matchup.

Guy Boston Sports leaned to Philadelphia despite Taijuan Walker’s up-and-down year, noting that Milwaukee’s lineup is so punch-less he joked he could "pitch scoreless innings against them right now." The Brewers are likely opening with DL Hall before turning to Quinn Priester, a combo he trusts even less than Walker plus a tired Phillies bullpen coming off yesterday’s double-header. He believes the market price (roughly –135 to –145) already bakes in Philly’s bullpen fatigue, giving bettors a fair number on the clearly superior offense. He also endorsed the full-game over 9 runs: if Walker’s command deserts him the Brewers could finally show some life, while Bryce Harper & company should tag Hall/Priester early. In short, Phillies ML and a lean to the over make his card.

Guy Boston Sports said the plus-money tag on Cincinnati (around +140) is simply too juicy to pass up. Andrew Abbott has been, in his words, "nothing short of fantastic" all season, and he already beat the Cubs 6-4 in the exact same pitching matchup last week. On the other side, Colin Rea’s wheels are starting to wobble—his most recent line versus the Reds was 5.0 IP, 7 H, 3 BB, 1 HR, 6 ER with eight strikeouts. Even with a chilly, damp Wrigley forecast, he expects Chicago’s lineup to manage three-to-four runs while Cincinnati’s bats bounce back after a two-run clunker. That sets up both a money-line play on the Reds and an over play on the full-game total, banking on Rea’s volatility and Abbott’s ability to hold the lead once the Cincinnati bullpen gets involved.