Guy Boston Sports targeted Lawrence Butler’s Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs. He noted Butler has poor results against sliders, sinkers, and four-seam fastballs— the three pitches George Kirby throws most. Although Butler’s speed occasionally generates extra bases, the substantial pitch-type mismatch makes multi-category production unlikely. With Kirby’s elite command forcing contact on Butler’s weaker swing paths, Guy Boston Sports is comfortable betting the Under despite Butler’s athleticism.

Guy Boston Sports also suggested fading Oakland’s offense with a team-total Under. He believes their recent surge is unsustainable away from the Coliseum and especially in pitcher-friendly Seattle. George Kirby’s fastball/slider mix plus a top-tier Mariners bullpen should stifle the A’s, and he expects the lineup to "come back down to earth." If books hang a low 3.5 or similar number, he is comfortable taking the Under as an alternate way to capitalize on the same matchup dynamics driving his Seattle pick.

Guy Boston Sports recommended laying a run with Seattle (-1 or ‑1.5) against Oakland. He cited three edges: George Kirby gives the Mariners a clear starting-pitching advantage over Jeffrey Springs, Seattle’s bullpen is deeper and more reliable, and T-Mobile Park suppresses offense. While the Athletics’ bats have been hot, he expects them to cool on the road, noting the matchup still tilts toward Seattle in talent and recent bullpen form. Because the moneyline is likely too juiced, he prefers the run-line to extract value.

Guy Boston Sports said bettors should look at both the Cubs team-total Over and the moneyline as long as Chicago is priced inside –150 whenever they face a right-handed starter who leans on the slider. The Cubs have been inconsistent overall, but he pointed out they are "actually succeeding" almost exclusively against right-handed sliders, giving them a clear matchup edge. Because the opposing bullpen is unlikely to bail out that starter, he is willing to lay the chalk up to –150 and also play the team total Over rather than chase a bigger number.

Guy Boston Sports plans to attack a Cubs team-total over against Angels right-hander Victor Maderos, provided Chicago opens at –150 or shorter. Maderos leans on a sinker/slider mix, and the tout pointed out that the Cubs’ right-handed core—Nico Hoerner, Seiya Suzuki and Pete Crow-Armstrong—has crushed sliders all month. Chicago’s offense was held in check the night before, so he expects positive regression in a friendly matchup. Final confidence will depend on how both pens are used in the ongoing game, but pitch-mix data and recent Cubs success versus sliders make their TT over his early lean.

Guy Boston Sports intends to back the Dodgers and their team total over versus left-hander Nestor ("Nesco") Cortez. The Dodgers rank fourth in average, ninth in slugging, sixth in OPS, and sixth in OBP against southpaws over the past 30 days, while Cortez owns one of MLB’s worst walk rates. With Tyler Glasnow on the mound, the tout expects L.A. to control run prevention and cash a crooked-number inning or two when Cortez inevitably hangs a fastball or cutter. He will re-check bullpen usage from the current game, but barring major relief overwork the Dodgers’ bats are his preferred play.

Guy Boston Sports likes Cincinnati’s team total over against Arizona spot-starter Nabil Crismatt. Crismatt has only one 2025 start (5 IP, 1 ER in Coors) and just two career starts overall, so the tout questions his ability to turn a lineup over. BallparkPal shows a +10 % run-environment bump at Great American Ball Park, another green light for runs. Although the Reds are notoriously streaky—he dubbed them the “Cincinnati roller-coasters”—their last ten games feature eight outings of five or more runs. He expects Andrew Abbott to provide serviceable pitching on the Cincinnati side while the offense capitalizes, highlighting Miguel Andujar and Noelvi Marte as prop considerations.

Guy Boston Sports leaned to the Mets at –125 and suggested a Braves team-total under. He trusts Clay Holmes, who carries a 2.2 ERA over his last five starts, to rebound from a shaky three-and-two-thirds, five-run outing against Atlanta just 10 days ago. Holmes’ sinker/slider mix normally gives the Braves trouble. On the flip side, Cal Quantrill’s fastball and cutter are pitches the Mets handle well, and he expects New York’s lineup—despite recent lulls—to be superior in a vacuum. As long as the price stays south of –130, he is comfortable paying the freight to back the Mets’ side.

Guy Boston Sports called this a classic split ticket: play the first-three-innings under thanks to a Freddie Peralta–Logan Webb showdown, then hammer the Brewers team total over for the full game. Peralta’s four-seam heater (“Fastball Freddie”) and Webb’s sinker/slider combo make clean early frames likely, yet the tout prefers Milwaukee’s bats once bullpens enter. He trusts the Brewers lineup, which has been red-hot and just walked off behind William Contreras, far more than a Giants offense he "doesn’t believe in." Even acknowledging San Francisco’s success versus fastballs, he still sees Milwaukee opening things up late while the total sits at only 7.5.

Guy Boston Sports likes Isiah Kiner-Falefa UNDER 1.5 total bases as a standalone play or paired with an alternate game total. Kiner-Falefa owns just a .529 OPS versus left-handed pitching this year and draws Rockies southpaw Kyle Freeland, whose cutter/curve combo Kiner-Falefa grades a poor 2.6 on the show’s internal pitch-mix scale. With Pittsburgh projected for only 3.9 runs, the tout expects limited plate appearances and minimal hard contact, making the plus-juice under appealing.

Guy Boston Sports said Kansas City is worth a money-line bet so long as the price stays at -130 or better. He expects Royals starter Cole Ragans to keep Detroit* to two or three earned over six innings, and Ballpark Pal shows a +9 % run-index boost at Comerica, giving upside to Kansas City’s team-total over. On the other side, Chris Paddack’s career 4.76 ERA against the Royals and a rough last outing point to continued trouble. The tout added that Detroit* right-hander Ty Walker has been good but is showing signs of looming regression, another reason to back KC while the market still hangs a short number.

Guy Boston Sports prefers Kansas City on the moneyline and would sprinkle their team total over at Comerica. Michael Wacha has rattled off five straight six-inning, two-run outings and relies on a fastball-changeup-cutter mix that Detroit is not hitting (the Tigers’ damage comes almost exclusively off sinkers and sliders, pitches Wacha uses only 20 % of the time). Chris Paddack, meanwhile, is coming off an eight-earned meltdown and carries ugly history versus this KC lineup. Statcast gives Comerica a +9 % run-scoring environment Saturday, further boosting the Royals’ offense. With Detroit riding an 8-2 run, the market is giving plus money on the steadier starter; the tout is happy to grab it.

Guy Boston Sports spotlighted Kyle Schwarber as the best one-off bet on the slate. Schwarber owns plus numbers versus four-seamers and curves—the two offerings Parker throws 75 % of the time. Parker’s splits against left-handed hitters are dreadful: 1.72 WHIP, 5.35 FIP, .282 average allowed and nearly as many walks as strikeouts. Schwarber’s 15.8 % barrel rate at Citizens Bank combined with Parker’s 43 % hard-hit profile sets up a multi-RBI game. The tout prefers Schwarber over 1.5 total bases or H/R/RBI over 1.5, adding that the Nats may hand him two cracks at that bullpen if Parker departs early.

Guy Boston Sports called Saturday a "Phillies spot" and is attacking their team total instead of laying −230. Mitchell Parker starts for Washington and “gives up four runs with his breakfast,” per the tout. Against left-handed bats Parker allows a brutal 1.72 WHIP, 5.35 FIP, .282 average, 14 % strikeout and 12 % walk rates. Philadelphia’s right-hand-heavy order crushes fastballs (Parker’s 58 % usage) and the Nationals’ bullpen used all three high-leverage arms Friday, leaving MLB’s worst relief corps stretched thin. Add a revenge narrative after Friday’s 5-4 Phillies loss and Citizens Bank’s top-five power factor, and the tout prefers Phillies team total over 5.5 to the expensive moneyline.

Guy Boston Sports targeted George Springer’s hits-plus-runs-plus-RBI line at 1.5, calling it a strong over against Miami spot-starter Jansen Junk. Junk throws sliders 46 % of the time; Toronto owns the league’s best run value versus sliders over the past 30 days, and Springer’s personal pitch-mix rating is "green" against both Junk’s slider and four-seam fastball. Junk typically lasts only 4–5 innings and allows about three earned runs, leaving Springer another couple of plate appearances against a bottom-ten Marlins bullpen. With a favorable roof-closed hitting environment and the Jays’ 5.1 implied total, the tout expects Springer to cash the combo in three trips or fewer.

Guy Boston Sports also suggested grabbing the full-game under if an 8 re-appears (some shops down to 7.5). He cited two strong bullpens plus a Webb-Boyle matchup he expects to favor pitching over hitting. Despite Tampa’s brief outburst versus Oakland, he questioned their night-to-night consistency, and he does not fully trust the Giants’ bats either. With both offenses prone to lulls, he believes any total at 8 or higher offers value, or bettors can isolate a Rays team-total under.

Guy Boston Sports liked San Francisco at –130/-137 with Logan Webb back from the 15-day IL after a strong first 20 starts. He trusts Webb over Joe Boyle, noting Boyle’s volatility in his last five outings and heavy fastball mix—a pitch the Giants are currently handling well. He called Tampa’s recent 8- and 7-run outbursts against Oakland an outlier for an otherwise inconsistent lineup and pointed out both clubs’ quality bullpens, concluding the Giants carry a modest but real edge at home.

Guy Boston Sports said he is willing to lay the roughly –140 price on Los Angeles. He expects the Dodgers to bring "110 % effort" with standings at stake, while the market has already nudged the line toward them. Although he acknowledged the Padres’ recent uptick in form, the speaker trusts the combination of urgency and overall roster edge to get L.A. across the finish line.

Guy Boston Sports recommended attacking the full-game over 8.5 in Padres-Dodgers. He reasoned that even if Clayton Kershaw is touched early, the real scoring upside appears when Los Angeles hands the ball to a bullpen he called "not the best." With San Diego swinging well and motivation high on both sides, he painted a 5-4 type finish that lands comfortably over the posted total.

Despite losing four straight, the tout believes this home set versus San Diego is where the Dodgers wake up. Clayton Kershaw owns a 1.60 ERA across his last five and should handle three-inning Michael King, who is coming off a two-inning, two-run tune-up after a May injury. He likes the Dodgers side and their team total over, citing an urgent divisional race and a struggling Padres bullpen. Because the Los Angeles pen has been shaky too, he also likes the full-game over 8.5, envisioning a 5-4 type finish regardless of winner.

Guy Boston Sports is leaning toward the Angels as underdogs and to the full-game over. He acknowledges Yusei Kikuchi’s road ERA issues but notes the left-hander dominates left-handed bats – important because several of Oakland’s key hitters (Nick Kurtz, etc.) swing lefty. Perkins has been unspectacular for the A’s, and both bullpens are bottom-tier. While Oakland’s 30-day offensive numbers look better in aggregate, the Angels have scored 6-7-7-5-7-5-4-3-5-8 runs in their last ten, showing steadier output. Given the pitching matchup, disastrous relief corps on both sides and recent scoring trends, he wants Angels plus money and will sprinkle on the over.

Guy Boston Sports said that if the probables hold—Framber Valdez versus Brandon Young—he’ll be on the Astros moneyline and likely their team total over. Valdez returns home after two rocky road starts; he owns a sub-3 ERA at Minute Maid and faces an Orioles lineup that has scored four or fewer in seven of its last ten. Young profiles as an over-matched spot arm, further tilting the matchup. The tout called it a classic bounce-back ‘hammer home’ spot for both Valdez and Houston’s bats.

Guy Boston Sports circled Josh Naylor’s Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI prop. Naylor is scorching lefties over the last 30 days (.424 AVG, 1.152 OPS) and owns +3.1 RAA versus fastballs and +2.8 versus sliders—exactly what he’ll see most from Sean Manaea. With the pitch-mix edge and recent form, he expects two plus events from Naylor tonight.

Guy Boston Sports ‘kind of likes’ the Mets as short home dogs with Sean Manaea opposite Luis Castillo. Castillo’s road ERA is 4.34 with a .324 wOBA allowed, and this will be his first start away from Seattle in nearly three weeks after a cross-country flight. Manaea’s slider is his put-away pitch and Seattle ranks 26th against sliders on the site’s dashboard. With the Mets sleeping in their own beds and the plus money attached, he thinks the edge tilts to New York.

Guy Boston Sports leaned Boston but preferred the Red Sox team total over (projected 4.5). Fenway’s bunch averages 5.26 runs at home and 7.0 over their last three. Sandy Alcantara’s mini resurgence vanished once he faced Houston and Atlanta, giving up 12 earned in those two starts, and Miami’s bullpen sits bottom-10 in ERA. With the Marlins still on a long road swing and the Sox returning home, he expects Boston to push past five runs Friday night.

Guy Boston Sports advised trimming the fat by playing the Rangers’ team total under (likely 3.5) instead of backing Toronto outright. The entire handicap rests on Texas being dead last in runs above average against sinkers over the past month while facing one of the heaviest sinker throwers in baseball. Betting the under insulates the play from a potential Jacob deGrom gem—Bassitt only has to keep Texas quiet for the ticket to cash.

Guy Boston Sports recommended taking Atlanta at plus money because left-hander Joey Cantillo leans on a fastball that the Braves are destroying. Over the last 30 days Atlanta sits top-10 in wRC+ against fastballs and left-handed pitching, hitting .293 with a 123 WRC+ and the second-highest walk rate versus southpaws. Cantillo’s command has wavered, and Atlanta’s deep right-handed core brings the platoon advantage. With Eric Fetty no great shakes for Cleveland either, he thinks the plus price should not last.

Guy Boston Sports said he is willing to grab Toronto at plus money because Chris Bassitt’s 44-percent-usage sinker lines up perfectly with Texas’ biggest weakness. Over the last 30 days the Rangers rank dead last in run value versus sinkers, while Bassitt leans on the pitch more than any starter on tonight’s slate. On the other side Jacob deGrom has surrendered 13 earned runs in 17 innings against the Angels, Mariners and Phillies, so he is not in peak form. With a Blue Jays offense that still grades top-10 in wRC+ and ISO, the tout believes the market is undervaluing the better lineup in this matchup.

Guy Boston Sports recommended betting the first-three-innings under 2.5 (−125 Caesars) and first-five under 4.5 in Friday’s Nationals-Phillies matchup featuring MacKenzie Gore and Zack Wheeler. Gore is coming off a 10-strikeout, six-shutout-inning gem against San Francisco, while Wheeler owns a 1.7 ERA across his last three starts versus Washington despite a modest 3.20 mark over his past five overall. The tout highlighted Philadelphia’s season-long struggles against left-handed pitching and Washington’s generally light lineup, concluding that the scoring drought should hold at least through the first half of the game. Because both bullpens have shaky middle relief, he prefers these early markets to the full-game total of 8, though he would still lean under there as well.

Guy Boston Sports advised continuing to ride Milwaukee’s red-hot offense and looking toward both a Brewers team-total over and the full-game over in Cincinnati. Jacob Misiorowski is expected to return from the IL for an ‘abbreviated’ two-to-three-inning start, forcing Milwaukee to lean on its middle relievers in Great American Ball Park, the league’s most homer-friendly venue. Milwaukee has been ‘absolutely on fire’ at the plate, while the Reds have scored 6 and 8 runs in their last two contests and historically stay hot for several games once they break out. Although Nick Martinez sports a 1.80 ERA over his last five outings, he has surrendered seven earned runs in 10⅓ career innings versus the Brewers. With both offenses trending up and uncertain pitching depth on each side, he likes Milwaukee’s team total first and will bet the game over if the number opens in the 8–8.5 range (would pass at 9.5 or higher).

Guy Boston Sports said bettors should back the Cubs on the money line and play their team-total over in Friday’s opener with Pittsburgh. He pointed out that Colin Rea has delivered consecutive quality starts, including six scoreless innings versus St. Louis, and has limited the Pirates to exactly two earned runs over six frames in both prior 2025 meetings. Meanwhile Pittsburgh is opting for a bullpen day with Braxton Ashcraft acting as an opener, exposing a relief corps that has already been worked hard during the club’s 3-7 slide. With the Pirates ranking near the bottom of the league in wRC+ and Chicago returning home where their offense has been far better, he is comfortable laying the current −178 and even prefers the alternative −1 run line plus a Cubs team-total over, expecting Chicago’s bats to ‘pick apart’ the pen all afternoon.

Although he prefers the under, Guy Boston Sports also likes the Mariners on the money line, arguing that Seattle’s lineup is a touch better and more capable of delivering a "timely hit" in what he expects to be a tight contest. With both clubs’ leverage relievers rested, the handicap boils down to trusting Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh over Tampa’s ice-cold middle of the order if the game turns on a single late-inning opportunity. Any plus-money price on Seattle is considered playable.

Guy Boston Sports recommended Bo Bichette OVER 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. Bichette owns a 14.8 runs-above-average grade versus curveballs and 8.4 against changeups, the two pitches Blake Snell throws a combined 45% of the time. Bichette’s .325/.357/.563 slash against lefties this season reinforces the edge, and with Snell’s walk tendency pushing pitch counts, Bichette should see four to five trips to the plate even if the Dodgers go to the bullpen early.

Guy Boston Sports said the Toronto Blue Jays are worth a money-line stab versus Los Angeles because the pricing does not reflect how competitive this matchup actually is. Blake Snell is still an elite left-hander, but Chris Bassett is coming off a "damn good" outing—6 IP, 1 ER, 5 K against Kansas City—and has alternated strong starts all year. The tout trusts the Blue Jays lineup against lefties far more than the market seems to: Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and company have produced a top-10 wRC+ versus southpaws, while Snell continues to battle efficiency issues that limit him to five-ish innings. With the Dodgers offense still finding its footing, the handicap centers on Bassett keeping them in range and Toronto’s bats doing enough damage early to make the plus-money ticket live.

Guy Boston Sports closed by saying the price alone makes Toronto interesting around +130 against Blake Snell and the Dodgers. Snell has been inconsistent in his new park (three earned in five frames last time out), while Chris Bassitt is coming off six dominant innings of one-run ball versus Kansas City. With a dangerous Blue Jay lineup that still carries his trust, the analyst felt the plus-money value was enough to justify a play.

Guy Boston Sports likes Boston even with Michael King returning for San Diego. He trusts Lucas Giolito’s 196 batting average allowed in 110 prior Red Sox plate appearances, and emphasized Boston’s current top-five bullpen by ERA. King may only work three to four innings coming off nerve surgery, forcing the Padres to match Boston’s rested relief corps for six frames. He projects a 4-3 type victory for Boston.

In the nightcap, Guy is again taking Atlanta, citing the lineup’s extra "pop" versus a Miami offense he thinks over-performed during its hot stretch. While Sandy Alcantara is the better arm on paper, Eric Fedde is competent enough at home, and the Braves bullpen plus Truist Park’s hitter-friendly backdrop tilt the long game toward Atlanta.

If bettors are squeamish about Colin Rea, Guy suggested isolating the Chicago offense with a team-total over. Pallante keeps the ball on the ground but still allows a .310 average and .364 expected wOBA to this lineup, and the Cubs possess "big go-off ability" that could recreate yesterday’s early surge in reverse. He prefers the moneyline first but views the TT over as a strong secondary angle.

Guy Boston Sports expects Chicago to flip yesterday’s 5-0 script. Colin Rea owns a .173 batting average allowed and .243 wOBA in 59 prior plate appearances versus the current Cardinals, while Andre Pallante has been hammered by this Cubs roster for a .395 wOBA, .364 xwOBA, and only a 15% K-rate against a 10.6% walk rate. With the superior starter and a deeper lineup, he prefers Cubs moneyline, anticipating an early Chicago lead St. Louis cannot match.