MacMillan’s favorite prop is Victor Perez Top 20 at +300. Before last week’s missed cut Perez logged a T10 at the Canadian Open and a T20 at the U.S. Open. He also finished inside the top 10 at last year’s Scottish Open, so MacMillan likes the 3-to-1 payout on another solid week.

For first-round leader, MacMillan fired on Viktor Hovland at +6000. He cited Hovland’s solo third at the U.S. Open and the fact that Hovland leads this entire field in true strokes-gained approach in opening rounds over the past three months, suggesting the Norwegian could sprint out of the gate on Thursday.

Iain MacMillan urged bettors to grab Matt Fitzpatrick at +4500 on DraftKings before the number slips (already as low as 34-1 on FanDuel). MacMillan pointed out that the former U.S. Open champion finally appears to be rounding into shape, following a T17 at the Travelers Championship and a T8 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Fitzpatrick also boasts an excellent course record at Renaissance Club—runner-up in 2021 and sixth in 2022—indicating a clear comfort level with the pot-bunker-littered layout. Given those recent flashes of form and his past success at this tournament, MacMillan believes now is the ideal moment to jump on the Englishman at a still-generous price.

Iain MacMillan advises betting Michael Kim to miss the cut at +160. Although Kim lifted the trophy here in 2018, he has missed the cut in all four trips since. MacMillan added that Kim owns just one Top-25 finish since March, so current form does little to suggest a turnaround. Given the shaky iron numbers and recent Deere struggles, MacMillan sees value in fading the former champ.

For his long-shot ticket, Iain MacMillan grabbed Emiliano Grillo at +7500. Grillo ranks No. 1 in the entire field in True Strokes Gained: Approach over the last three months and finished runner-up at this event in 2022. MacMillan has been riding the Argentine’s recent form and thinks his elite iron play can cash in a wide-open week at Deere Run.

Iain MacMillan called Bud Cauley his favorite outright play at 40-1. MacMillan highlighted that Cauley sits 15th on the entire PGA Tour in Total Strokes Gained this season and 9th in the John Deere field in True Strokes Gained: Approach over the last three months. Because TPC Deere Run rewards precise irons and birdie streaks, MacMillan believes Cauley’s current wedge game makes him a perfect fit. With a wide-open leaderboard and short odds on the headliners, MacMillan thinks the market is underrating Cauley’s combination of elite approach numbers and recent scoring form.

MacMillan’s bold prop is Morikawa to MISS the cut at +400. The two-time major champ hasn’t logged a top-10 since THE PLAYERS in March and limped to T42 at Travelers while actually losing strokes with his vaunted irons—an alarming signal for a player who lives and dies with approach play. With form sliding and no course history edge, MacMillan is comfortable fading the betting favorite.

MacMillan went back to the well on Keith Mitchell for First-Round Leader at +6000. Mitchell leads this week’s field in Round-1 strokes gained and actually tops the entire PGA Tour in opening-round scoring average (67.5). With no signature-event nerves and a course that rewards his driver, MacMillan expects another lightning-fast start.

At +8000, Iain MacMillan pegged Emiliano Grillo as his favorite longshot. Grillo has quietly rattled off four consecutive top-25 finishes, including a T19 at the U.S. Open where he gained strokes in all four major facets. He now ranks inside the Tour’s top-50 in both approach play and putting, a combo MacMillan believes converts perfectly to Detroit’s wedge-heavy, birdie-or-bust setup.

Iain MacMillan backed Harry Hall at +4000 to win the Rocket Classic, pointing to Hall’s stellar recent form. Over the past four months Hall ranks 5th in this field in total strokes gained and sits 4th on the entire PGA Tour in birdie average—both critical at Detroit Golf Club where winning scores push into the -20s. Hall just finished T9 against a far stronger Travelers field, so MacMillan believes the weaker Rocket lineup makes this the right week to pounce.

Iain MacMillan called Emiliano Grillo his favorite long-shot, advocating an outright bet at +8000. Grillo has strung together four consecutive top-25 finishes, capped by a T19 at the U.S. Open where he gained strokes in all four major categories. Season-long stats back it up: Grillo is inside the Tour’s top 50 in both approach play and putting, a combination MacMillan values highly on Detroit’s receptive greens. Given the below-average strength of field, MacMillan believes Grillo’s recent consistency should price closer to 50-1 and sees 80-1 as a clear buying opportunity.

MacMillan recommended Keith Mitchell at +4500, acknowledging the risk of Mitchell’s weekend fade history but arguing the price is too good to pass up. He noted that over the last three months only Keegan Bradley, Ben Griffin and Patrick Cantlay have gained more strokes per round than Mitchell in this field. Detroit Golf Club rewards driving, and MacMillan highlighted Mitchell’s combination of distance and accuracy off the tee as an ideal course fit. With a weaker-than-usual lineup in a non-signature event, MacMillan believes this is the type of tournament Mitchell can finally close out.

Iain MacMillan urged bettors to grab Harry Hall at +4000 outright before the number shortens. MacMillan pointed out that Hall ranks 5th in this week’s field in total strokes-gained over the past three months and sits 4th on the entire PGA Tour in birdie average at 4.44 per round. Hall is also coming off a T9 at the Travelers Championship, a signature-event field far stronger than what he will see at Detroit Golf Club. MacMillan’s takeaway: elite recent form plus elite birdie-making equals mis-priced odds in a watered-down field, making Hall a must-bet at 40-1.

Iain MacMillan bet Sungjae Im +360 to finish as Top Asian, arguing TPC River Highlands is a ‘plotters’ course that mitigates distance. He dismissed Hideki Matsuyama and Si Woo Kim for being less precise off the tee this season and trusts Im’s driving accuracy, tidy short game, and streaky putter to outlast the Asian contingent even if his irons remain merely average.

Iain MacMillan prefers Collin Morikawa in the First Round Leader market at +2500 because the two-time major champ keeps flashing his best stuff on Thursdays yet struggles to close. MacMillan said Morikawa’s elite iron play is tailor-made for the wedge-heavy River Highlands layout, making a fast start far more plausible than a four-day victory.

Iain MacMillan called Brian Harman the Travelers ‘horse for course,’ noting the lefty has logged seven top-10 finishes in 10 starts at TPC River Highlands, including a runner-up in 2023. With course history mirroring Bubba Watson’s past dominance, MacMillan views +9000 as too big for a proven contender on a layout that neutralizes distance and accentuates Harman’s accuracy and putting.

Iain MacMillan said Russell Henley is tailor-made for TPC River Highlands because the track rewards accuracy and greens-in-regulation over raw distance. Henley ranks near the top of the PGA Tour in GIR percentage and just posted a T5 at the Memorial followed by a T10 at the U.S. Open, evidence that the irons are dialed in. MacMillan noted that Henley already owns one signature-event win this season and believes +5000 is generous for a player arriving in this kind of form on a layout that de-emphasizes his one weakness, length off the tee.

MacMillan bet Sungjae Im at +360 to finish as top Asian, arguing that River Highlands favors accurate drivers and tidy short games—areas where Im excels. He dismissed long-hitting peers Hideki Matsuyama and Si Woo Kim on fit grounds and trusts Im’s elite scrambling and putting to separate in this mini-market even without his best iron season.

MacMillan labeled Brian Harman a must-sprinkle at +9000, invoking Bubba Watson’s three-time success pattern and noting Harman has seven Top-10 finishes here in the last decade, including runner-up in 2023. The lefty’s repeat success profile makes him the panel’s preferred ‘course horse.’

Iain MacMillan backed Russell Henley at +5000 to win the Travelers, arguing that TPC River Highlands rewards precision iron play far more than raw distance. Henley leads the field in greens-in-regulation percentage over his last 12 measured rounds and rolls in having finished T5 at the Memorial and T10 at the U.S. Open. MacMillan noted those strong approach numbers plus Henley’s bid for a second signature-event trophy this season make the 50-1 number too long.

Iain MacMillan pointed to Brian Harman as the quintessential “horse for the course,” making him a must-sprinkle outright at +9000. Harman has finished inside the top 10 at the Travelers in seven of the last ten editions, including a runner-up in 2023, mirroring the repeat success Bubba Watson enjoyed here. The lefty already captured the Valero Texas Open this season, so confidence is high. MacMillan’s angle is simple: short, positional layout that rewards accuracy and an elite short game, two pillars of Harman’s profile. Add in his sterling course history and triple-digit upside, and MacMillan believes the 38-year-old is mis-priced at 90-1.

MacMillan recommended taking a shot on Cameron Young at +5500, arguing that the former PGA Tour Rookie of the Year is trending toward his long-awaited first victory. Young finished T5 at both the Canadian Open and last week’s U.S. Open, then heads to a track where he fired a Saturday 59 and finished inside the top 10 a year ago. The analyst noted that sharpening the irons—his lone statistical weakness in 2025—would put Young back in the mix because his driving and putting numbers are already elite. Given his recent surge and proven scoring ceiling at TPC River Highlands, MacMillan calls him live to break through at 55-1.

Iain MacMillan tabbed Russell Henley as his favorite long-shot outright at +5000, stressing that TPC River Highlands plays directly into Henley’s strengths. Distance off the tee is largely neutralized here, while precise iron play and greens-in-regulation rate are rewarded; Henley ranks 7th in this elite field in true strokes-gained tee-to-green over the past three months. He arrives in Connecticut in peak form after a T5 at the Memorial and a T10 at the U.S. Open, and he already owns one signature-event victory this season. MacMillan believes that combination of recent ball-striking numbers, course fit, and confidence creates a realistic path to a second 2025 win at juicy 50-1 odds.

MacMillan is fading McIlroy with a +300 ‘miss the cut’ ticket. He referenced Rory’s own admission that motivation has dipped after completing the career Grand Slam and pointed to ongoing driver tinkering that led to a +9 Friday at the Canadian Open. MacMillan doubts McIlroy can flip the switch on Oakmont’s exacting setup and will continue to fade him until the metrics show life.

MacMillan added Scheffler +1200 for First-Round Leader, arguing his current level gives him a sizable edge even on Oakmont’s opening day. He anticipates Scheffler opening with a number that immediately separates him from the field and sets up a multi-stroke victory by week’s end.

MacMillan’s dart throw is Nick Taylor at 170-1. Although not long off the tee, Taylor sits 12th on tour in bogey avoidance (only 13.27% of holes) and has finished T17 or better in four of his last five starts. MacMillan believes the Canadian’s ability to limit mistakes is exactly what wins money at Oakmont, where every missed fairway can lead to a double.

Iain MacMillan said he would rather eat the +280 chalk on Scheffler than chase a long-shot because the World No. 1 owns an enormous edge right now. Over the last six months Scheffler has gained 0.73 true strokes per round more than any other player on the planet, a gap MacMillan views as "by a wide margin." He added that Scheffler’s chief rivals are all dealing with form or injury issues—McIlroy’s driver is lost, DeChambeau’s irons are off, Rahm has yet to flash his A-plus gear, and Schauffele is still working back from a rib injury. On an Oakmont setup that tests every part of the bag, MacMillan believes Scheffler’s current level justifies even shorter odds and expects him to win golf’s toughest exam.

Iain MacMillan’s favorite long-shot dart is Nick Taylor at +17000 (FanDuel). Taylor has finished T17 or better in four of his last five starts and ranks 12th on Tour in bogey avoidance, posting bogeys on only 13.27% of holes. MacMillan reasoned that the Canadian’s ability to keep big numbers off the card is a massive edge at Oakmont, where par often wins the hole. While he lacks elite distance, Taylor’s current form and tidy short game justify a 170-to-1 sprinkle.

Iain MacMillan is fading Rory McIlroy to MISS THE CUT at +300. MacMillan noted McIlroy admitted motivation has waned since completing the career Grand Slam at Augusta and is publicly struggling to find a driver setup. The evidence: a shocking +9 second round that led to a Friday exit at the Canadian Open. MacMillan doubts McIlroy can rebound from one of his worst rounds ever to tackle Oakmont’s penal fairways and lightning greens, urging bettors to ride the form slump until further notice.

Iain MacMillan said the U.S. Open should be a Scottie Scheffler coronation and bet him outright at +280 on FanDuel. MacMillan cited Scheffler’s outrageous six-month run in which he has gained 0.73 true strokes per round more than any other player, calling the gap 'a wide margin.' He noted that the chief threats—Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, and Xander Schauffele—either have driver issues, shaky irons, or are coming off injury. With the field searching for form and Oakmont demanding complete tee-to-green excellence, MacMillan believes Scheffler’s price is actually too long and expects him to claim the season’s toughest major.

Iain MacMillan advised fading Rory McIlroy’s +850 outright number for Oakmont, arguing the Northern Irishman’s current form doesn’t justify single-digit odds. Since winning the Masters, McIlroy has failed to contend and is coming off a missed cut at the Canadian Open where he ballooned to +9 on Friday. MacMillan emphasized that Oakmont ruthlessly exposes any weakness, and McIlroy’s recent ball-striking dip and shaky putter make him a risky play compared to similarly-priced contenders. With Scheffler in dominant form and several big hitters like Bryson DeChambeau better suited to battle, MacMillan suggested steering clear of McIlroy tickets this week.

Iain MacMillan urged bettors to grab Scottie Scheffler at +275 to win the 2025 U.S. Open, noting the price carries a 26.67% implied probability— territory not seen since peak-Tiger days. MacMillan pointed to Scheffler’s torrid 18-month stretch: three wins in his last four starts, including the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow; eight consecutive top-8 finishes; and zero results outside the top-25 since the 2024 BMW Championship. Oakmont demands a complete skill set, and MacMillan called Scheffler "the one flawless golfer" whose tee-to-green dominance leaves virtually no holes for the brutal layout to exploit. With Rory McIlroy slumping and only Bryson DeChambeau or Jon Rahm viewed as remote threats, MacMillan framed another Scheffler major as the most likely outcome and labeled the +275 number worth the wager despite its shortness.

MacMillan recommended a small outright "sprinkle" on Keegan Bradley at 100-1. Over the past three months Bradley ranks third worldwide in true strokes-gained tee-to-green, demonstrating elite ball-striking that travels to major venues. He owns above-average length off the tee—helpful on Oakmont’s 7,372-yard par-70—and if his historically streaky putter heats up he can contend. The U.S. Ryder Cup captain narrative would create a headline-grabbing story, but the bet is grounded in statistical form, not sentiment. MacMillan sees Bradley as the lone deep number worth exposure alongside a primary Scheffler ticket.

Iain MacMillan is firing one large "single-bullet" outright on Scottie Scheffler at +260, arguing the price underrates Scheffler’s true win probability. MacMillan pegs Scheffler closer to 2-1 given: 1) Scheffler leads the PGA Tour in bogey avoidance, a critical stat at Oakmont where limiting doubles matters more than piling birdies; 2) he sits inside the top-15 in three-putt avoidance, key on Oakmont’s lightning greens; 3) his true-strokes-gained tee-to-green form is peaking after victories at the PGA Championship and Memorial despite starting the year with a hand injury; 4) the putter, formerly his lone weakness, has been above last year’s baseline the past two months. MacMillan can’t “imagine anyone beating” Scheffler on a course demanding excellence in every discipline and believes ignoring him in the outright market is "betting malpractice."

MacMillan’s preferred longshot is Rasmus Hojgaard at +7500. The Dane’s 320-yard average carry puts him in the top tier for driving distance, a must at TPC Toronto. While his season cooled after early T22 (Pebble) and T12 (Phoenix) finishes, he flashed again with a T23 at the elevated Truist Championship. MacMillan argues that if Hojgaard brings peak ball-striking he profiles as a perfect course fit in a field light on proven winners beyond the top handful of names.

Iain MacMillan said Taylor Pendrith is his favorite outright at +2800 because the Canadian owns an unusual amount of local knowledge and ideal statistical traits for TPC Toronto. Pendrith is the only player in the field with multiple competitive reps on the course, including a runner-up finish in a 2019 PGA Tour Americas event. MacMillan emphasized the track’s 7,400-yard par-70 layout and noted Pendrith’s elite length off the tee as a decisive edge. Recent form backs it up: a T5 at the PGA Championship and a T12 at the Memorial where he ranked 2nd in strokes-gained tee-to-green. MacMillan thinks those three green check marks—course familiarity, driving distance and incoming form—justify a win ticket even with McIlroy looming at the top of the board.

Iain MacMillan recommended Taylor Pendrith at +3500 to win his national open, citing a rare convergence of course fit, form, and local history. Pendrith’s calling card is elite length off the tee—exactly what MacMillan says is needed on the 13th-longest course on Tour—with wide fairways minimizing any accuracy concerns. The Canadian arrives hot: T5 at the PGA Championship and T12 at last week’s Memorial, where he ranked 2nd in the entire field (behind only Scottie Scheffler) in strokes-gained tee-to-green. Pendrith is also comfortable at TPC Toronto, having finished runner-up here during a PGA Tour Canada event in 2019. MacMillan believes those factors create 'an ideal course fit' and justify a 35-1 outright stab.

Iain MacMillan advised an outright wager on Shane Lowry at +2200, arguing the Irishman’s long-iron dominance is tailor-made for the 7,389-yard par-70 TPC Toronto layout. Lowry leads the PGA Tour in approach proximity from 200-225 yards and ranks 15th from 175-200 yards, the two distances most golfers will face on this stretched track. MacMillan noted Lowry sits 5th in total strokes gained and 2nd in strokes-gained tee-to-green this season, evidence that his overall game is peaking. Lowry also gained +2.0 true strokes on approach last week at the Memorial, reinforcing the recent form angle. With no Scottie Scheffler in the field and the Canadian Open lacking signature-event depth, MacMillan believes Lowry is 'playing too well not to snag a win' and is undervalued at +2200.

Iain MacMillan recommended Corey Conners at +3300 to win the Memorial, citing the course’s emphasis on precision over length. Conners sits 11th on Tour in driving accuracy, 9th in greens in regulation, and 5th in scrambling from the rough—three stats MacMillan says give him a leg up at Muirfield Village. Conners has posted two top-20 finishes at this event in the last three years and has quietly logged top-20 results in seven of his past eight starts this season. MacMillan views the 33-1 price as clear value for a player whose skill set aligns perfectly with Jack’s Place.

Iain MacMillan advised betting Justin Thomas outright at +1800 for the Memorial. MacMillan pointed out that Thomas ranks second in the entire field in true strokes gained over the last six months and already owns a 2025 victory at the RBC Heritage. The writer believes the market is giving bettors a discount because Thomas missed the cut at the PGA Championship, a result MacMillan is willing to overlook given Thomas’s otherwise strong recent form. MacMillan emphasized Thomas’s elite iron play and expects his approach game to keep him in contention through the weekend at Muirfield Village.

Iain MacMillan labeled Keegan Bradley a misprice at +5500 to win the Memorial. Over the past six months Bradley ranks fifth in the field in strokes gained tee-to-green, gaining an average of +1.63 strokes per round in that department. His main weakness—putting—has kept his number long, but MacMillan argues that a tee-to-green profile that strong should never be listed at 55-1. Bradley is also coming off a T8 finish at the PGA Championship, and as Team USA’s Ryder Cup captain he could bolster his case for a rare player-captain role with a win here. MacMillan sees far more win equity than the odds imply.

Calling the 55-1 number a misprice, Iain MacMillan advised betting Keegan Bradley to win The Memorial. Bradley sits fifth in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over the last six months and is gaining +1.63 strokes per round in that span—elite ball-striking rarely attached to such long odds. He is fresh off a T8 at the PGA Championship, confirming recent form. MacMillan added that a win would bolster Bradley’s bid to serve as a player-captain for Team USA at the upcoming Ryder Cup, giving the veteran extra motivation this week.

Iain MacMillan recommended Corey Conners at +3300, calling him an ideal course fit because Muirfield Village rewards accuracy over raw length. Conners is 11th on Tour in driving accuracy, ninth in greens-in-regulation, and fifth in scrambling from the rough this season—skills MacMillan thinks give him a tangible edge on Jack Nicklaus’ penal layout. The Canadian has two top-20 finishes here in the past three years and is in rock-solid form with seven top-20s in his last eight starts. MacMillan views 33-1 as tangible value on a player whose skill set directly matches the venue’s demands.

Iain MacMillan said Justin Thomas is his favorite outright bet at +1800. Thomas ranks second in the entire Memorial field in True Strokes Gained over the last six months and already owns a 2025 victory at the RBC Heritage, something several peers near the top of the odds board cannot claim. MacMillan believes the number bakes in an overreaction to Thomas’ missed cut at the PGA Championship; prior to that hiccup, his form was trending up. Because Muirfield Village relentlessly rewards elite iron play, MacMillan expects Thomas’ approach game to keep him in contention all four days and sees the 18-1 price as a rare discount on a premier ball-striker.

MacMillan passed on Scheffler’s short +250 outright price and instead bet him to win wire-to-wire at +1600. Using DataGolf’s true strokes-gained, Scheffler has gained +3.27 true strokes per round over the last six months—1.49 better than the next-closest player in this field (Daniel Berger, +1.78). Given that massive separation, MacMillan sees genuine value in a market where Scheffler simply has to lead after every round rather than just Sunday.

MacMillan labeled Alex Smalley a live 90-1 dart. Smalley sits 7th in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green over the past six months and just parlayed that form into a T5 at the Myrtle Beach Classic and T28 at Valhalla. With Colonial favoring precision more than power, MacMillan thinks the market is sleeping on Smalley’s all-around profile in a diluted field.