Iain MacMillan sees great value in Henrik Norlander at extremely long +22000 odds for the Valero Texas Open. Citing Norlander’s fourth-place PGA Tour ranking in strokes-gained approach, MacMillan identifies Norlander as a worthy longshot in this weaker field and feels the potential upside makes the risk very attractive even considering potential putting struggles.

Iain MacMillan endorsed Denny McCarthy as his outright pick for the Valero Texas Open, highlighting McCarthy's second-place finish last year when he lost in a playoff to Akshay Bhatia. MacMillan also praised McCarthy's excellent strokes-gained approach (27th on Tour) and putting (17th on Tour) skills this season. McCarthy has posted back-to-back top 20 finishes at signature events and figures to capitalize on a weaker-than-usual field.

Iain MacMillan favors the Orioles (+110) as underdogs against the Blue Jays, capitalizing on Kevin Gausman's recent decline. Gausman's ERA rose from 3.16 in 2023 to 3.83 in 2024, and his WHIP increased from 1.178 to 1.221, trends that MacMillan believes may further regress this season. After the Orioles convincingly won 12-2 in their opening game against Toronto, MacMillan sees continued potential for Baltimore against a pitcher potentially entering a downturn, providing valuable betting value as an underdog.

Iain MacMillan took the under on Tylor Megill's 4.5 strikeouts total against the Astros, citing Houston's elite plate discipline, ranking second-best in the majors last season with just a 19.3% strikeout rate. The Astros had only seven strikeouts on Opening Day, continuing their disciplined approach. MacMillan expects regressive strikeout numbers from Megill this season, believing his 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings last year was an anomaly compared to just 7.5 in 2023, indicating a likely dip in his effectiveness in this category today.

Iain MacMillan recommended betting Clay Holmes under 4.5 strikeouts in his first start of 2025 against the Astros. Holmes transitioned from reliever to starter and switched from the Yankees to the Mets. His strikeout rate already declined from 10.1 per nine innings in 2023 to 9.7 per nine innings in 2024. Now facing a consistently low-strikeout Astros lineup, Holmes may struggle to accumulate strikeouts, making him a heavy fade candidate on Opening Day.

Iain MacMillan highlights Mac Meissner as a value longshot at +15000 odds due to emerging positive trends and performances. Meissner finished T28 at last week's Valspar Championship, notably gaining nearly two strokes per round with his approach play. Coupled with continued strong chipping, MacMillan believes Meissner can surprise and contend at Memorial Park.

Iain MacMillan advised betting Rory McIlroy at +700 odds due to the large gap between him and Scottie Scheffler compared to their recent performances. MacMillan highlighted that McIlroy has clearly outperformed Scheffler throughout this season, yet he remains available at double the odds of Scheffler. Given this discrepancy and Rory's strong recent form, MacMillan values McIlroy as a strong bet to win the Houston Open. He sees this as potentially Rory McIlroy's big year, noting his two victories already this season including The Players Championship.

Iain MacMillan identified Lucas Glover (+7000) as his longshot pick at Valspar, underscoring Glover's elite accuracy (fourth in driving accuracy, 28th strokes-gained approach). MacMillan emphasized Glover's recent excellent T3 at The Players Championship and an 11th place finish at the Valspar Championship last year. Given Copperhead's demand for precision, Glover fits perfectly and offers value as a dark horse pick.

Iain MacMillan identified Sepp Straka as a strong outright play (+1600) at the Valspar Championship, emphasizing Straka's high-level accuracy, critical at Copperhead. Straka has finished inside the top 15 six times in his last seven tournaments, including a win at The American Express. His accuracy stats rank among the PGA Tour's elite: 11th in driving accuracy and 5th in greens in regulation, stats key to contending at Copperhead.

Iain MacMillan sees solid value in backing Carson Young to finish in the top 20 at +550 odds at the Valspar Championship. Young recently delivered notable performances, finishing T54 at the Players Championship right after a T10 result at the Puerto Rico Open. Emphasizing that Copperhead course demands precision, MacMillan pointed out Young's strong statistical profile, ranking 23rd on Tour in driving accuracy and 48th in greens-in-regulation. Considering the weaker field strength this week, MacMillan believes Young can comfortably achieve and exceed the top-20 barrier.

Iain MacMillan recommended Lucas Glover at favorable +5000 odds for the Valspar Championship due to his recent top-tier results and strong statistical profile. Glover secured an 11th-place finish at the Copperhead course last season and is coming off an impressive T3 performance at the Players Championship. Despite his age, MacMillan noted Glover's continued excellence in accuracy-focused statistics vital for success at Copperhead, as he currently ranks 4th on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy and 28th in strokes-gained approaching the green. With the field strength below average this week, MacMillan sees an ideal opportunity for Glover to capture one more PGA Tour victory.

Iain MacMillan highlighted Sepp Straka as significantly undervalued at +2500 odds for the Valspar Championship. Straka enters the tournament with a remarkable recent record, placing 15th or better in six of his last seven events, including a victory at the American Express. MacMillan stressed Straka's suitability for Copperhead course, which like TPC Sawgrass, places a premium on accuracy. Statistically, Straka ranks highly on Tour this season in crucial metrics: 11th in driving accuracy, 2nd in greens in regulation, and 30th in par-3 scoring, positioning him advantageously against the field. Although he missed the cut here last year, his outstanding recent form and statistical strengths provide ample upside at the given odds.

Iain MacMillan advised caution betting on Scottie Scheffler at very short odds (+360) despite his back-to-back wins at THE PLAYERS Championship and continued status as world No. 1. MacMillan highlighted Scheffler's unimpressive start to the 2025 season by his standards, questioning whether he deserves the heavy favorite price. Although he has logged a T11 or better in three of his four starts this year, MacMillan expressed doubt that Scheffler's current performance justifies being a prohibitive favorite at TPC Sawgrass.

Iain MacMillan loves Collin Morikawa as a betting choice for THE PLAYERS Championship, emphasizing that TPC Sawgrass places significant importance on driving accuracy. Morikawa currently ranks fourth on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy, hitting fairways 72.37% of the time, and leads the tour in strokes gained tee-to-green. He enters in strong form after finishing runner-up at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, his third runner-up result in his last six starts. MacMillan highlighted that the course setup suits Morikawa's skillset perfectly, making him prime for breaking his winless drought at this championship.

Iain MacMillan identified Aaron Rai as a valuable longshot bet (+9000 odds) at THE PLAYERS Championship due to his skill match with the course layout. Rai ranks sixth on the tour in driving accuracy and 30th in greens-in-regulation, two critical metrics for success at TPC Sawgrass. Rai also enters with improving recent form, highlighted by a T4 finish at the Mexico Open and T11 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. MacMillan discounted Rai's lack of driving distance as a negative impact at this particular course and pointed out his improved chipping performances lately as encouraging signs for this week.

Iain MacMillan is bullish about Doug Ghim's chances to finish top-20 at THE PLAYERS Championship at +280 odds. Ghim currently ranks fifth on the PGA Tour in strokes gained approach and is viewed by MacMillan as an elite ball-striker this year. Although poor putting has hindered Ghim's overall results, he still notched finishes of T21 and T11 this season. Importantly, Ghim has well-documented history at TPC Sawgrass, finishing T16 last year and being in the final Sunday group in 2022 before settling for T6. MacMillan confidently expects another strong week provided Ghim can just moderately improve his putting.

Iain MacMillan recommended Alex Smalley to finish top-20 at THE PLAYERS Championship (+360 odds), labeling him as potentially the most underrated golfer of 2025 to date. Smalley has placed T21 or better in five of six recent starts, consistently displaying his exceptional driving accuracy—key to succeeding at Sawgrass. While MacMillan is hesitant to back him outright after Smalley missed taking advantage in contention at the Mexico Open, he considers him a fantastic value bet for a solid top-20 finish given the course alignment with his strengths.

Iain MacMillan flagged Russell Henley as a golfer worth watching at THE PLAYERS Championship coming off his win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Henley regularly appears near the top of betting models each week but historically struggled with closing tournaments until finally breaking through last week at a high-profile event. MacMillan believes Henley overcoming this hurdle positions him strongly to capitalize on his recent form and confidence, advising bettors not to be surprised if he's again prominently in contention at TPC Sawgrass.