For the first half of his two-team teaser, Dougherty moved Buffalo down to –1.5. The game’s relocation from a blizzard in Orchard Park to Ford Field removes weather volatility and gives Josh Allen a fast track to attack a Browns defense that has collapsed statistically over the past month. Dougherty doesn’t believe the Bills will drop a second straight game in such favorable offensive conditions.

Calling it his favorite underdog moneyline of the season, Dougherty fired on the Chargers at +190. Los Angeles expects Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Gerald Everett back after full Friday practices, while Kansas City already ruled out Mecole Hardman and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Dougherty doubts Kadarius Toney can replace that production in just his third start with Patrick Mahomes and reminds bettors that Derwin James held Travis Kelce to his worst game of the season in their first meeting. He pegs this as a race to 28 points and trusts the healthier, more desperate Chargers to get there first.

Dougherty grabbed Pittsburgh +3.5, pointing to the immediate lift from T.J. Watt’s return (New Orleans held to 186 yards and 10 points last week) and the expected reappearance of Minkah Fitzpatrick. He believes that pass rush can expose Cincinnati’s shaky protection for Joe Burrow, while the Bengals remain without Ja’Marr Chase. Historical edge: Mike Tomlin is 14-4-2 ATS as a home underdog and has won 13 of those games outright. Dougherty projects another field-goal finish with Pittsburgh very live on the moneyline.

Jack Dougherty laid the 2.5 points with New Orleans, calling this a straight fade of what he considers the league’s worst offense. Cooper Kupp had supplied 34% of the Rams’ scrimmage yards and six of their 16 touchdowns, and with Kupp sidelined by an ankle injury Dougherty doubts Los Angeles can even reach 14 points. He isn’t enamored with Andy Dalton, but trusts the Saints’ defense and home field to handle a Kupp-less attack that already ranks last in yards per play.