Jake Ciely still ranks Chris Godwin inside his top-30 wide receivers even after a beat report suggested Godwin could start the season on the PUP list. Ciely cited preseason usage—where Sterling Shepard and Jalen McMillan handled most slot snaps while Godwin worked outside—as evidence the Buccaneers expect Godwin back sooner than later. He also reminded listeners that you can stash an injured player in an IR spot and wait out the six-week absence, especially if you bypass drafting a defense until right before Week 1. The stash-and-wait approach, he argued, provides more upside than drafting a low-ceiling depth receiver in the same range.

Jake Ciely boldly predicted that Anthony Richardson will finish ahead of Justin Fields in fantasy points this season. Ciely said the preseason film shows Richardson processing faster and throwing with better mechanics than Fields, which could level their passing lines at roughly 2,400 yards and 18 touchdowns apiece. Because their rushing ceilings are similar, any incremental progress as a passer would swing the advantage to Richardson. The caveat is durability—Ciely worries Richardson’s lowered playing weight and unwillingness to slide could cost him four to five games—but at current ADP he still prefers Richardson’s upside over Fields.

Jake Ciely knocked Kyle Williams way down his rankings after preseason reps showed Williams stuck behind Kayshon Boutte, Kendrick Bourne, and "all the other jabronis" on the depth chart. Until Williams can jump those names, Ciely sees no path to meaningful snaps and recommends leaving him off fantasy rosters entirely.

Jake Ciely urged drafters to stop chasing Zay Flowers at his mid-round price. Flowers finished WR35 in points per game last season even though Lamar Jackson threw 41 touchdown passes. Ciely noted that no Baltimore wideout has cracked the top-24 since Marquise Brown in 2021 because the Ravens’ run-centric attack spreads targets and prioritizes tight ends in the red zone. Given that usage profile, Ciely dropped Flowers to 60th overall and prefers options like Jaylen Waddle in that tier.

Jake Ciely flagged Week 1 at Kansas City as a potential slow start for the Titans passing game and advised managers who missed Ridley in drafts to circle that matchup. If Ridley posts something like a 2-for-40 line against the Chiefs, Ciely expects managers to overreact. He plans to trade for Ridley immediately after that game, confident that the receiver’s season-long target share and role will rebound once the schedule softens.

Jake Ciely argued that drafters are still sleeping on Calvin Ridley after he banked 120 targets and a top-30 fantasy finish last season despite, in his words, “garbage at quarterback.” Ridley saw only four red-zone and one end-zone target, yet the volume and efficiency held up. With first-round passer Cam Ward now under center, Ciely expects a commanders-style jump for the entire offense and moved Ridley to 46th overall—inside his top-50 players. Ciely believes Ridley has legitimate league-leading target upside while being drafted as merely a low-end WR2.

Jake Ciely endorsed Kyle Pitts as a classic late-round arbitrage play. Years of disappointment have pushed Pitts’ draft price into the deep double-digit rounds, but Ciely believes the market will immediately overreact if the tight end flashes early—especially with Darnell Mooney sidelined. Should Pitts post something like 270 yards and two TDs over the first three games, managers can exploit lingering ‘Mulder-style’ believer bias and trade him as if he’s a locked-in top-four tight end. Ciely’s suggested move: draft Pitts cheaply, hope for a September spike, then cash him out for premium assets before regression (and potential Falcons volatility) sets in.

Jake Ciely still projects Alvin Kamara as a borderline RB1 and one of 2025’s best values. Ciely expects 70-80 receptions again, arguing Kamara will remain the clear focal point of a Saints offense short on dependable playmakers. Even though New Orleans ranked near the bottom of the league in efficiency last season, Kamara produced despite poor quarterback play and Ciely believes nothing on the depth chart threatens that target share. He has been happily drafting Kamara as his second back—and sometimes first—at an overall rank in the low-40s, confident the pass-game role alone supports top-12 upside in half- and full-PPR formats.

Jake Ciely advised passing on Kyren Williams at his current ADP, arguing the Rams runner is "not one of the seven or eight most talented backs" in the league. Ciely would draft Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs and several others instead, stressing that Williams’ fantasy value is almost entirely scheme- and volume-driven. If Williams strings together a few poor games, Ciely believes Sean McVay could pivot to Blake Corum or Jarquez Hunter, making Williams’ RB7 price tag fragile. The takeaway: treat Williams as a mid-tier RB2 rather than the back-end RB1 the market currently assumes.

Jake Ciely cautioned drafters about Jonathan Taylor's week-to-week volatility and mounting risk. Taylor has missed time in each of the past three seasons, and Ciely noted the Colts offense—forced to toggle between Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones whenever Richardson gets banged up—is "not conducive to scoring points." Indianapolis also targets its running backs sparingly, preferring Richardson to scramble or absorb sacks. Ciely highlighted that 38 % of Taylor's 2024 fantasy output came in the final three weeks, calling his production profile a roller coaster of single-digit duds and 25-plus-point spikes. He ranked safer options like Chase Brown ahead of Taylor in season-long drafts.

Jake Ciely said he will have "zero Malik Nabers" at current draft cost. Ciely listed a growing list of red flags: Nabers has battled the same turf-toe issue since college, has now added a preseason shoulder injury, and has already missed consecutive practices. Ciely worries the Giants will open the year with Russell Wilson – whom he called "mediocre Russ" – then could pivot to Jackson Dart mid-season, creating two radically different (and unproven) passing environments. If Dart resembles last season’s version of Drake Maye, overall passing volume could crater. Ciely added that if New York is 3-11 by Week 14 the front office may shelve an already-dinged Nabers for future-year preservation, all of which caps his fantasy ceiling. Because of the compounded risk Ciely prefers Drake London and Brian Thomas straight up over Nabers in season-long drafts.

Jake Ciely pegged Josh Jacobs as one of the best values on the board, frequently landing him at picks 18-19 and sometimes in the early third round. With Green Bay’s offensive-line injuries already piling up, Ciely sees virtually no workload gap between Jacobs and Derrick Henry but noted that Jacobs is a full round cheaper. He expects Matt LaFleur to lean heavily on Jacobs as a true three-down option, giving the back a realistic 300-touch ceiling. Ciely prefers Jacobs over second-round receivers dealing with quarterback or scheme uncertainty and recommends scooping him whenever he slips past the mid-second.

Jake Ciely argued that Derrick Henry remains worth an early-second-round pick and belongs ahead of several WRs with question marks. He set his personal line at 17 touchdowns— noting another panelist even felt comfortable projecting 22— and pointed out that Henry has cleared 12 rushing TDs every season he has played more than eight games, finishing as RB3, RB2 and even RB1 in full-PPR scoring despite limited receiving work. Ciely called Henry a "freak of nature" who routinely breaks age-curve expectations and reminded listeners that the only time he failed to reach 12 scores was the foot-fracture season when he still hit 10 TDs in eight games. Because of that touchdown consistency, Ciely would draft Henry ahead of wideouts like Amon-Ra St. Brown (new scheme) or Puka Nacua (QB uncertainty).

Jake Ciely moved CeeDee Lamb to the second spot on his overall board, slotting him behind only Ja'Marr Chase and in front of Justin Jefferson and Puka Nacua. Ciely reminded listeners that Lamb averaged almost 24 PPR points per game two seasons ago – the same rate Chase posted last year – a mark Jefferson has never hit. With Dallas likely forced into high pass volume because of a shaky offensive line and Dak Prescott needing a bounce-back season, Ciely expects Lamb to reprise that WR1 overall ceiling. The combination of recent elite production, projected target dominance and game-script-driven volume makes Lamb, in Ciely’s view, the safest and highest-upside pick at 1.02 in season-long drafts.

Jake Ciely celebrated camp reports that rookie DJ Giddens is "off to a strong start" and could be the primary backup to Jonathan Taylor. Ciely emphasized that Taylor has missed more games than Christian McCaffrey over the last three seasons, so he wants Giddens on every deep-bench roster. If Taylor is sidelined or load-managed, Ciely sees a path to 15-plus touches per game in Shane Steichen’s run-centric scheme, making Giddens a smash pick in the double-digit rounds for both season-long and best-ball formats.

Jake Ciely ranks Christian McCaffrey RB4 behind Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley and Jahmyr Gibbs. Ciely projects McCaffrey for roughly 21 PPR points per game—down from his 24-point peak—and argues that a 1–1.5-point advantage over the next tier is not enough to ignore multiple lower-body injuries the past three seasons. Because the per-game gap has narrowed, he would rather bank on younger or safer options early. Ciely is comfortable taking McCaffrey at pick eight but will select Chase, Lamb, Jefferson, Robinson, Barkley, Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown first.

Jake Ciely has Tyler Warren all the way down at TE18 and says he is off his board at current TE11 ADP unless Daniel Jones, not Anthony Richardson, wins the job. Ciely projects Jonathan Taylor for 300 touches and believes Michael Pittman, Josh Downs and Alec Pierce will soak up the majority of the passing volume. Richardson’s tendency to attack outside and deep, rather than the intermediate middle, leaves little meat on the bone for a rookie tight end. While he concedes Warren will start, Ciely doubts the target share will be high enough for a year-one top-12 finish and prefers taking Colston Loveland in that range instead.

Jake Ciely is taking dart throws on rookie Mason Taylor because the Jets’ depth chart behind Garrett Wilson is barren. Ciely thinks Taylor can immediately slot in as Justin Fields’ No. 2 option and approach 80 targets—a figure he considers realistic after noting that Cole Kmet finished as TE9 with Fields despite minimal wide-receiver help in Chicago. With only maligned slot man Malachi Corley and journeymen vying for intermediate looks, Taylor could become an every-down player and sneak into the top-12 tight ends by season’s end, giving drafters a free late-round swing with real volume upside.

Jake Ciely said Hunter Henry is a perfectly acceptable full-PPR safety-valve. Henry’s 15 percent target share last season was kneecapped by uncatchable throws, yet he averaged 9.0 PPR points in games rookie Drake Maye handled most of the snaps. Ciely projects that a full season with Maye could push Henry to 90 targets and roughly 10–11 PPR points per week, which would land him in the TE6–TE8 range. He admitted Henry lacks top-5 upside but argued that managers who simply want Dallas Goedert-style weekly volume can grab Henry late, ride the stable floor, and jettison him quickly if it does not materialize.

Jake Ciely explained that at tight end he is hunting for difference-makers, not safe eight-point grinders. Pitts is still being drafted outside the first ten TEs, yet Ciely believes he can finish top-5 if new quarterback Michael Penix Jr. finally unlocks him. Pitts posted 1,026 yards as a 20-year-old rookie and still owns elite size-adjusted athleticism, but has been "miscast" in Arthur Smith’s old attack. Ciely compared Pitts’ profile to Jonnu Smith’s late breakout and is willing to give Pitts two weeks under the new regime: if the usage isn’t there, he’ll cut ties and stream the position, but the upside is worth the gamble at his current cost.

Jake Ciely is fading Evan Engram unless the tight end can approach 110–120 targets, a threshold he doubts Sean Payton’s offense will provide. Ciely noted Payton calls Engram the team’s "Joker" but stressed that this is not the old Saints system with Jimmy Graham funneling red-zone looks. Because Engram’s fantasy value is almost entirely volume-driven, Ciely fears anything short of a massive target share will leave him outside the top eight tight ends. He will sprinkle a few shares when Engram slips, but generally skips him in the sixth round and either takes Travis Kelce or punts tight end to the late rounds.

Jake Ciely is taking more shots on Travis Kelce now that a Rashee Rice suspension seems imminent. Without Rice, Ciely expects Kelce to reclaim the No. 2 role in Kansas City’s passing game and believes a double-digit touchdown season is back in play. He reminded listeners that even Kelce’s supposedly washed 2024 campaign still produced a TE6 finish, so any efficiency rebound would push him back into the top five. Ciely warned that if Rice’s legal case is unexpectedly delayed until 2026 he would be "completely out," because Kelce would slide to third in the target hierarchy. The takeaway: draft Kelce at his late-sixth-round ADP only while a Rice suspension remains likely.

Jake Ciely advised fantasy drafters to target George Kittle instead of paying up for Brock Bowers or Trey McBride because Kittle is going two full rounds later. Ciely said his own rankings still have Kittle third in the tier, but the projected gap among the trio is only about half a fantasy point per game. With such a small difference, the two-round ADP discount makes Kittle the optimal choice in season-long and best-ball builds that need early-round wide receivers.

Jake Ciely said Brock Bowers should be drafted as the overall TE1 this season. Ciely’s projections give Bowers the most targets of any tight end and he believes the former Georgia star "still has another level" beyond last year’s production. Even a repeat of 2024 would land Bowers around low-end WR1 numbers (roughly fantasy WR14), which Ciely thinks justifies Bowers’ late-second-round price tag in redraft and tight-end-premium leagues. He contrasted Bowers’ seemingly locked-in volume with Trey McBride’s red-zone competition from Marvin Harrison and with George Kittle’s week-to-week volatility when Christian McCaffrey dominates touches. Given the tiny weekly gap between the top three, Ciely prefers chasing Bowers’ ceiling.

Jake Ciely argued that Travis Kelce could jump back into the elite tier if Rashee Rice is suspended for roughly six games. Without Rice absorbing intermediate targets, Patrick Mahomes would again funnel volume to Kelce, negating the dip we saw last year. Ciely likened Kelce to the ‘Joe Burrow’ of the tight-end landscape—slightly discounted after a down season but capable of reclaiming positional dominance once extra targets reappear. Fantasy managers worried about Kelce’s 2024 drop-off should view the Rice situation as a clear upside catalyst.

Jake Ciely grouped Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, and George Kittle into the same clear-cut top tier but refuses to pay second-round capital for the first two when Kittle regularly lasts until Round 4. With identical projections for the trio, Ciely prefers the discount, calling Kittle the “cheaper path to elite tight-end production.” Drafters willing to wait gain the same ceiling Kittle showed by finishing TE1 in PPR points per game last season while preserving early picks for scarcer positions.

Jake Ciely pushed back on McCarthy’s hype, projecting roughly 4,000 yards and 26 passing TDs—numbers he says will not crack QB1 territory without a hefty rushing bonus. Ciely compared McCarthy’s college tape to Taylor Heinicke, pointing out that even with Kevin O’Connell’s help those passing totals fall short unless McCarthy adds 300-plus rushing yards and 4-5 scores on the ground. He currently has McCarthy and Bryce Young back-to-back outside his top-12 and would rather bypass the entire QB10-QB20 tier if he can’t land a Fields or Caleb Williams earlier. Ciely advises drafters not to assume Minnesota’s system alone guarantees elite fantasy output.

Jake Ciely flagged Bryce Young as an overlooked upside swing. From Weeks 13-18 last year Young produced the second-most quarterback rushing fantasy points behind only Josh Allen, punching in five rushing touchdowns while looking decisively more comfortable in the offense. Ciely projects six to seven rushing TDs over a full season, enough to vault Young into the QB1 fringe even if the passing remains merely average. An upgraded, "interesting" wide-receiver room in Carolina further raises the ceiling, making Young a smart pick over names like Geno Smith in the double-digit rounds.

Jake Ciely is neutral-to-bearish on Geno Smith despite the 16th-round ADP. He expects Antonio Pierce to run a balanced Raiders attack featuring Zamir White and says the defense is good enough that Smith won’t need to throw 600 times. Ciely cited researcher Ryan Heath, who found that even last season’s struggling QBs delivered more catchable passes than Geno. With minimal rushing juice, Ciely believes Smith would need a massive volume spike that simply isn’t coming, making Michael Penix or Bryce Young much better late-round pivots.

Jake Ciely put a 90-10 probability on Anthony Richardson opening the season as the Colts’ starter and keeping the job. Ciely argued the organization would be declaring Richardson a bust if it turned to Daniel Jones, and beat-writer reports already highlight Jones’s continued deep-ball inaccuracy (missing a wide-open Alec Pierce in seven-on-sevens). Unless Richardson strings together five straight games below 50% completion or suffers another injury, Ciely expects Indianapolis to give him every opportunity to prove he belongs. That combination of job security plus elite rushing makes Richardson an ideal last-round best-ball or redraft stash.

Jake Ciely reminded viewers that a quarterback who rushes for even 700 yards and seven scores can crack the top-10 regardless of passing woes. He used Justin Fields’ prior 1,000-yard rushing season and Daniel Jones’ 2022 fantasy finish as proof of concept. Ciely admitted Fields brings week-to-week volatility but argued the swing for upside is worth it once elite quarterbacks are gone, especially if drafters pair him with another high-variance option.

Jake Ciely said he is ‘tentatively keeping the ranks the same’ on Darnell Mooney after checking with orthopedic specialists who expect the shoulder issue to be fully resolved by Week 1. Because casual drafters are letting Mooney slide into the undrafted range, Ciely views him as a free upside play—one he’d take over Rashid Shaheed straight up. He reminded listeners that Mooney commanded a 21% target share and averaged 2.18 yards per route in healthy games last season, numbers that would have placed him inside the top-30 wideouts. Ciely’s advice: stash Mooney in the final rounds before the inevitable August ‘he’s practicing in full’ blurbs push the price back up.

Jake Ciely compared Tony Pollard to the old Lamar Miller archetype—exciting in small doses but the same fantasy producer regardless of touch count. Pollard handled snap shares north of 90 % in several 2024 games yet finished only RB22 in PPR points per game. Ciely has him ranked in the mid-to-late 20s and bet he would ‘chew a hat’ if Pollard cracks RB1 territory. He cited a still-questionable Titans offensive line (despite incremental upgrades), an aging unit overall, and meaningful competition from Tajay Spears. Unless Tennessee’s offense takes an unexpected leap, Ciely believes Pollard is a safe but capped RB2 profile, not a league-winning target.

Jake Ciely explained that the Steelers have told us repeatedly they do not view Jalen Warren as a bell-cow. Pittsburgh reinforced that stance by adding Caleb Johnson, whose size and skill set mirrors former Steeler Najee Harris. Ciely projects a 55-45 or similar split with Johnson handling most early-down and goal-line snaps, keeping Warren in the RB3 range while Johnson settles as a back-end RB2. He reminded listeners that even a modest workload shift hurts Warren’s efficiency and noted the upside for either back vaulting into the top-15 if the other is injured, making Johnson an appealing pick at his current ‘back-end RB2’ ADP.

Jake Ciely said Jordan Mason could immediately step in as the Vikings’ dedicated short-yardage and goal-line hammer. Minnesota punched in very few rushing TDs last season and Ciely blamed part of that on Aaron Jones’ lack of power near the stripe, noting many of Jones’ double-digit TD seasons in Green Bay came from 3-plus yards out, not from the one. Ciely compared the backfield to the old Steelers setup but with roles reversed: Mason handling Najee-style plunge work while Jones catches passes. He projected a 60-40 split at best for Mason, and never a 70-30 either way, but advised fantasy drafters chasing touchdowns to side with Mason because the bigger back could end up with the majority of carries inside the five.

Jake Ciely recommended drafting Aaron Jones ahead of Jordan Mason even after Tuesday’s report of Mason running with the first-team offense. Ciely called the headline noise—‘it’s more telling when you DON’T run with the ones.’ He expects Jones to start Week 1, dominate the passing-down work, and handle the highest-value touches. Ciely likened the split to Pittsburgh but reversed: Jones plays the Jalen Warren role while Mason steals Najee-style short-yardage carries. Until Mason clearly outplays him, Ciely sees Jones as an undervalued RB2 with reception-driven upside in PPR formats.

Jake Ciely said Jerome Ford is the Cleveland back to target right now. Every time Ford has logged at least ten carries over the past two seasons he has produced double-digit fantasy points, yet drafters continue to ignore him. Ciely noted the rest of the depth chart is a mess: Nick Chubb is recovering from a December foot fracture, and rookie Quinshaw Judkins could miss the entire season while his legal case drags on. With no clear receiving threat behind him and Kevin Stefanski historically willing to ride the hot hand, Ciely believes Ford could open 2025 handling 12-15 touches and settle in as a sneaky RB2/FLEX at a discount.

Ciely called Woody Marks “the real sneaky play” in Houston. The recent draft pick profiles more dynamically than either veteran and could seize passing-down snaps immediately. Ciely noted that if Chubb’s efficiency remains pedestrian and Mixon’s foot limits him, the coaching staff has every incentive to expand Marks’ role by mid-season. Given a practically free ADP, Ciely likes stashing Marks in the final rounds as a zero-cost lottery ticket who could turn into the Texans’ most complete back by November.

Ciely argued that Nick Chubb should already be coming off the board ahead of Mixon because Chubb is healthy and slated to open the season as Houston’s primary ball-carrier. While Chubb’s 2024 efficiency was merely average, Ciely expects him to own early-down and goal-line work for at least the first month – valuable touches Mixon can’t claim while sidelined. Even if Chubb offers little in the passing game (Ciely projects only 10 receptions), that rushing workload provides short-term RB2 usability, and drafters can reassess once Mixon’s status clarifies. At current pricing Chubb is, in Ciely’s words, “the sensible play for anyone needing bankable carries in September.”

Jake Ciely advised passing on Joe Mixon at anything close to his preseason ADP. Ciely reminded listeners that Mixon is still in a walking boot with what Ian Rapoport called a “frustrating” foot injury and that the Texans immediately signed Nick Chubb and drafted Woody Marks after acquiring Mixon – a pair of moves that told Ciely the front office isn’t counting on Mixon for Week 1. Volume has propped Mixon up the past two years, but Ciely notes that Houston’s offensive line sits dead last in both PFF and Brandon Thorne’s 2025 rankings, and Vegas projects the offense to finish in the bottom third of scoring. With uncertainty about availability plus a low-efficiency environment, Ciely dropped Mixon to the RB28-RB30 range and will only consider him as an RB4/5 stash you can IR immediately after the draft.

Jake Ciely said Hurts belongs on his own tier at quarterback because no one can touch his goal-line production. Ciely pulled the numbers from his projections database: 147 fantasy points for Hurts on carries inside the five over the last two seasons, with Josh Allen a distant second at 90 and Anthony Richardson the only other passer above 40. Ciely stressed that Philadelphia designs its offense so Hurts, not the running backs, is the primary short-yardage finisher, giving him a weekly rushing-touchdown floor that simply does not exist anywhere else. That unique role is the driver for Ciely’s rank and projection edge, not just raw rushing volume, making Hurts a set-and-forget QB1 in season-long and a priority ceiling play whenever his DFS salary dips.

Jake Ciely warned that Travis Hunter carries far more downside than his late-WR3 price tag suggests. Ciely thinks Hunter will open 2025 as, at best, Jacksonville’s third receiver behind top-10 pick Brian Thomas and veteran deep threat Dyami Brown— a rotation that could limit Hunter to roughly a 70 percent snap share in three-wide sets. That role would make it easy for the Jaguars to sprinkle in the two-way snaps HC Liam Cohen keeps hinting at, further capping weekly volume. Ciely loves Hunter’s talent—he said you could argue Hunter is the class’s WR1 if he were offense-only—but believes the rookie’s defensive work, crowded skill group, and Trevor Lawrence’s uneven track record create too much volatility relative to Tet McMillan, Jerry Jeudy, Rome Odunze, or Jacoby Myers, all of whom Ciely would draft ahead of Hunter despite lower ADPs. He admitted Hunter owns legitimate top-25 upside if everything breaks right, yet maintains that redraft managers should treat him as a bench lottery ticket, not a locked-in starter.

Jake Ciely explained why he still cannot rank Garrett Wilson inside his top 15 wide receivers despite projecting the Jets star for more than 130 targets. Ciely’s main concern is new quarterback Justin Fields. He doubts Fields can deliver the red-zone accuracy and overall completion percentage (especially on deeper throws) needed for Wilson to rack up both receptions and touchdowns. To crack the elite tier, Ciely believes Wilson would need 160-plus targets and at least 10–12 scores—numbers he sees as unlikely unless Fields makes a dramatic leap as a passer. He also questioned whether Ben Johnson disciple Tanner Engstrand will automatically replicate Detroit’s offensive success in New York, noting that Wilson has produced only WR3 finishes to this point. Until Fields proves he can sustain a high-volume, high-efficiency passing attack, Ciely is comfortable fading Wilson at his current ADP.

Jake Ciely vaulted Jaxon Smith-Njigba to WR10 after studying new OC Klint Kubiak’s tape. Ciely explained that Kubiak’s Yankee-style concepts consistently create two-level route trees—one deep clear-out and one intermediate crosser—putting JSN in the Cooper Kupp role where 130+ targets are realistic. Seattle has already hinted at moving JSN outside more often, which should boost his average depth of target beyond last year’s gadget-heavy rookie deployment. Ciely is comfortable betting on Sam Darnold as a volume generator, comparing the setup to Jameis Winston’s fantasy-friendly chaos years: turnovers may pile up, but so will pass attempts. With 130 receptions and a mid-teen aDOT in his projections, Ciely believes JSN can finish inside the overall WR1 conversation if Darnold merely holds the job all season.

Jake Ciely kept Collins nine spots lower than Hartitz (WR9) and warned drafters not to gloss over the downside. Ciely expects Houston’s rebuilt offensive line to remain a bottom-five unit, which he argues will drag C.J. Stroud back toward last year’s middling numbers rather than his stellar rookie campaign. Although Stroud was productive under pressure when targeting Collins, Ciely noted that reliance on broken-play chemistry is not bankable for 17 games. He also flagged Collins’ own injury history and said he is slightly more comfortable with Brian Thomas or Drake London in the same range because their environments are stabler. Collins still carries legitimate top-five upside, but Ciely views his floor as a mid-WR2—making him the riskiest pick inside the position’s top ten.

Jake Ciely ranked Malik Nabers eighth—at the back of his second receiver tier—and explained the downgrade is entirely quarterback-related. Ciely doubts 35-year-old Russell Wilson is an upgrade on last year’s Giants mess and fully expects the team to bench Wilson for rookie Jaxson Dart by mid-season. That scenario introduces two separate risks: Wilson’s declining arm creating a rash of uncatchable targets early, and Dart’s inevitable rookie growing pains tanking efficiency later. Without trustworthy QB play, Ciely prefers Drake London and Brian Thomas, who project for better offensive environments. He still views Nabers as a high-end talent but will not pay top-six pricing for a player tied to what he calls “the league’s most volatile quarterback room.”

Jake Ciely defended ranking Amon-Ra St. Brown inside his top five wide receivers. Ciely reminded listeners that St. Brown averaged over 17 half-PPR points per game two seasons ago—better than last year’s output—so 2024 was actually a slight dip, not the ceiling. He believes St. Brown can eclipse that earlier mark because Detroit’s offense still funnels high-percentage looks to the slot, and the 25-year-old has shown an elite floor with 196 catches over the past two seasons. In Ciely’s view, minor concerns about the knee scope and added weapons are “nitpicks” compared with the bankable volume, making St. Brown a worthy Round-1 pick for drafters chasing both safety and weekly WR1 upside.

Jake Ciely ranked Chris Godwin as his WR19 because he believes the veteran’s target volume and chemistry with Baker Mayfield can vault him back into WR1 territory. Ciely pointed out that when Godwin was fully healthy last season he ranked third in points per game behind only Ja’Marr Chase and Rashee Rice. Tampa’s new contract for Godwin contains zero injury protections, a signal to Ciely that the team is confident he will be ready by Week 1 or shortly thereafter. Even if Godwin starts slowly, Ciely expects him to hit peak form by the end of September, and at an ADP in the low 30s drafters can still wait two additional rounds before pulling the trigger. He dismissed concern over rookie Emeka Egbuka as forward-planning for a future without Mike Evans, not an immediate threat to Godwin’s 2025 workload.

Jake Ciely shoved Brandon Aiyuk down into the WR50 range, saying he is draftable only if your platform offers IR slots. Aiyuk opened camp on the PUP list and, according to Ciely, could face a lengthy ramp-up similar to what we saw from Javonte Williams, where the player finally returns to game action but looks nothing like his old self until the following season. Ciely worries managers may be forced to decide whether to activate Aiyuk in November despite unclear health or keep burning a roster spot through fantasy playoffs. He conceded Aiyuk is “definitively the best talent” among 49ers wideouts when 100 percent, but the lack of a firm timeline and the risk of a December setback makes him a fade outside of IR-only stashes.

Jake Ciely ranked Terry McLaurin as his WR15—three spots ahead of current ADP—and explained why he remains bullish. Ciely projects a modest bump of roughly 7-10 additional targets over last year’s 117, but believes the real upside comes from improved per-catch production. Washington’s offseason additions should finally give McLaurin breathing room: Debo Samuel (even if he’s merely a big-slot yak guy), rookie Luke McCaffrey soaking up underneath routes, and Zach Ertz returning as a reliable short-area option. Those pieces, plus Jayden Daniels’ scrambling ability that forces second-reaction defenses, should leave McLaurin in single coverage more often and open the door for deeper shots and higher-value touchdowns. Ciely sees a path to a more efficient 2025 stat line—think 1,150-plus yards and 7-9 scores—making McLaurin a rock-solid back-end WR2 inside his large Tier 3 that stretches from Tee Higgins to Courtland Sutton.

With Rashee Rice facing a lengthy suspension, Jake Ciely vaulted rookie Xavier Worthy into his top-25 wide receivers. Ciely pointed out that Worthy’s late-season production at Texas mirrored Rice’s 2023 rookie finish in both volume and efficiency, and the Chiefs drafted Worthy to fill a nearly identical short-to-intermediate role. If Rice misses the first six to eight games, Worthy should open the year as Patrick Mahomes’ primary underneath option—an area of the field Mahomes peppered last season, producing a 7-yard average depth of target to that role. Ciely believes Worthy could hold a 25-plus percent target share early and maintain meaningful involvement even after Rice returns, making the rookie a strong WR2/3 pick at current prices.