Jake Ciely cautioned listeners against paying a fourth-round price for rookie Travis Hunter, locking him at WR33 despite the electric highlight reel. Ciely acknowledged Hunter’s elite skill—he ranks him neck-and-neck with Tetairoa McMillan for raw talent—but reminded drafters that no modern NFL player has handled full-time snaps on both offense and defense. The Jaguars are already flirting with using Hunter at cornerback against elite receivers like Justin Jefferson, and even 25-40 percent defensive usage would drop his offensive snap rate into the 60-70 percent range, cut into routes, and expose him to extra injury risk. Ciely also pointed out that Brian Thomas Jr. just posted one of the best rookie seasons ever and will demand targets in Liam Cohen’s new scheme, while Trevor Lawrence still has to learn his third offense in five years. Given proven alternatives such as DeVonta Smith, DK Metcalf, and Cortland Sutton available in the same draft window, Ciely labeled Hunter a volatile swing best faded outside of late-round upside hunting.

Jake Ciely pushed Jalen Waddle all the way down to WR37, labeling him a high-end WR3 rather than a rebound candidate. Ciely compared Waddle’s recurring lower-body issues to a Grant Hill-style career detour and worries the nicks are becoming chronic. He also argued that defenses "figured out" Mike McDaniel’s scheme last year by layering umbrella coverage, forcing Miami underneath and neutralizing the speed advantage. Until the Dolphins deliver a schematic counterpunch, Ciely projects Waddle for a modest 1,000 yards and five touchdowns—solid numbers that do not justify a top-30 pick. Given the risk-adjusted profile, he is passing on Waddle for sturdier options in the same tier.

Jake Ciely urged drafters to stash Roman Wilson with their final pick because he believes the rookie is the favorite to seize the Steelers’ No. 2 receiver job behind DK Metcalf. Ciely recalled Mike Tomlin personally matching Wilson against top-10 corner Quinyon Mitchell at Senior Bowl practices, a sign the veteran coach "saw something he liked" before spending day-two draft capital. With only Calvin Austin, Robert Woods, and Ben Skowronek standing in his way, Ciely expects Wilson’s talent to win out, projecting him for starter snaps and 80-plus targets in Arthur Smith’s streamlined passing attack. That combination of clear path, coach buy-in, and free ADP makes Wilson a no-risk upside swing in both best ball and season-long formats.

Jake Ciely slotted DJ Moore at WR21 but admitted he is tempted to move him lower because the new Ben Johnson offense may spread targets much more evenly than fantasy managers expect. Ciely envisions Johnson using Rome Odunze, Luther Burden, and even tight ends in matchup-based rotations similar to how he deployed Amon-Ra St. Brown and multiple tight-end sets in Detroit. He also expects rookie quarterback Caleb Williams to be coached into quick one- or two-read concepts that could funnel extra touches to check-downs or scrambles, leaving the third progression – often Moore – out of the play. With that uncertainty, Ciely said he would take Rashee Rice over Moore if Rice were fully cleared and is debating whether higher-volume bets like Chris Olave make more sense in the same draft range. Bottom line: Moore remains his highest-ranked Bears receiver, but Ciely sees a realistic path where he is merely a volatile WR3 instead of the reliable WR2 drafters are buying.

Jake Ciely said he is hammering Travis Etienne whenever the Jaguars back slips to the 103-107 overall pocket because none of the backs going next to him – Najee Harris, Jordan Mason, or Javonte Williams – has shown Etienne’s combination of first-round draft capital and proven fantasy ceiling. Ciely reminded listeners that Etienne finished RB5 just two seasons ago and believes 2024’s dip was almost entirely injury-driven. With a full offseason to get healthy, Liam Cohen replacing Press Taylor, and the entire Jacksonville offense expected to play faster and more coherently, Ciely projects a bounce-back to 275 touches and double-digit TD upside. He acknowledged fourth-round rookie Peshaun Tuten is interesting, but noted day-three backs rarely eat into a healthy starter’s workload for long. Because Etienne is now going in the low-end RB3 range, Ciely views him as the only player in that tier who can finish inside the top 10 and is willing to draft both Etienne and Tuten if he wants cheap exposure to the backfield.

Jake Ciely slotted Garrett Wilson at WR20 despite loving the player’s talent because he cannot trust Justin Fields as a passer. Ciely reminded listeners that Fields mustered only 2,200 passing yards in 15 games during his last full season as a starter and historically throws few check-downs, limiting easy fantasy points. Even if Wilson commands a 30 % target share—roughly 130-140 looks—Ciely worries about how many will be accurate and how often Fields actually gets Wilson into the end zone. While Wilson’s ceiling is undeniable, the combination of low catchable-target rate and meager touchdown upside forces Ciely to rank him behind safer volume plays, making the Jets star one of his hardest wideouts to slot in 2025 drafts.

Jake Ciely said he is willing to draft Isiah Pacheco only as a back-end RB2/RB3 even though the market has him at RB29. Ciely expects Andy Reid to roll out another three-man committee featuring rookie pass-catcher Bershard Smith plus either Kareem Hunt or Elijah Mitchell handling some early-down and goal-line snaps. He projected no more than a 60 % touch share for Pacheco, pointing out that Chiefs running backs other than Pacheco actually combined for more targets two years ago despite Pacheco catching "almost everything" that came his way. Ciely thinks a healthy Pacheco could match his RB14 finish from 2023 but stresses that outcome is the absolute ceiling; a repeat of last season’s rotating backfield could leave him outside the top-40. Because the range of outcomes is so wide, Ciely prefers to treat Pacheco as a plug-and-play floor piece after he has already loaded up on higher-upside players at other positions.

Jake Ciely explained why he barely nudged RJ Harvey up—or down—after Denver signed J.K. Dobbins. Ciely was already resisting the Twitter hype that painted Harvey as Sean Payton’s next Alvin Kamara, stressing that the rookie is “closer to 90 % of Kamara” at best and therefore unlikely to post true RB1 numbers. With Dobbins in town, Ciely now projects a three-headed backfield (Harvey, Dobbins, Javonte Williams) where early-down and goal-line touches are fluid and receiving work could rotate. Given Payton’s long track record of splitting snaps—no Saints back topped a 65 % share during the Kamara era—Ciely keeps Harvey outside his top-30 running backs, viewing him as a volatile RB3/FLEX whose upside hinges on multiple injuries rather than talent alone.

Jake Ciely planted a flag on Justin Fields as his QB7, insisting the Jets will not bench a player they just guaranteed $30 million on a two-year, $40 million deal. Ciely highlighted Fields’ historic rushing production—one of only three quarterbacks in NFL history (with Lamar Jackson and Jaden Daniels) to average 50+ rushing yards per game—and noted his 1,143-yard, 8-TD ground campaign from 2023 that produced a top-five finish despite ugly passing numbers. He leaned on a decade-long trend: 28 of 31 quarterbacks who logged 100+ carries in a season finished top-12 in per-game scoring. Given Fields’ realistic 1,000-yard rushing ceiling and the lack of real competition behind him, Ciely sees a locked-in weekly floor with top-three upside that easily justifies pulling the trigger ahead of pocket passers like Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow in 2025 drafts.

Jake Ciely argued that Geno Smith is getting ignored despite offering almost the exact same fantasy profile as Jordan Love. Ciely projected both quarterbacks for roughly 4,000 passing yards with a small but helpful rushing boost—"about 250-300 yards and a couple of scores on the ground"—yet drafters keep pushing Love up the board while letting Smith fall multiple rounds. Ciely reminded listeners that Smith has already delivered a full QB1 season in 2023 and still carries DK-Metcalf-level weaponry even if Antonio Pierce prefers a balanced attack. Because the market discounts him simply for changing teams and lacking offseason buzz, Ciely is happy to wait, skip the Love/Dak/Goff tier, and scoop Smith as a late QB2 who can post identical weekly spikes at a fraction of the cost.

Jake Ciely said he is keeping Jordan Love outside his top-20 quarterbacks (QB21) because the Packers’ signal-caller still feels like “DeSean Jackson for quarterbacks” – all spikes and valleys. Ciely noted Love’s best fantasy stretch was 18.5 points per game two seasons ago, a mark driven by extreme touchdown efficiency rather than bankable volume. With Love’s rushing production shrinking to roughly 250 yards and four scores at his peak, Ciely believes the former first-rounder now needs 4,200 passing yards and 25-30 touchdowns just to sniff the low-end QB1 range. He is skeptical that happens given an offense built around “15 number-two wide receivers,” the arrival of workhorse Josh Jacobs, and Green Bay’s willingness to lean on the ground game late in the year. Because Ciely doubts Love can deliver a 4,500-yard, 35-TD ceiling, he prefers darts like Bryce Young, Dak Prescott, or Trevor Lawrence in the same range.