Jason Ence recommended Rashee Rice as an anytime touchdown play, noting that Rice was targeted four times inside the 10-yard line last week—two on the opening drive and two more just before halftime—converting two of those looks into scores. Rice commanded 10 total targets in his first game back from suspension and was the read on 25% of Mahomes’ red-zone drop-backs. With Washington surrendering a league-worst completion rate when it fails to generate pressure, Ence believes the Chiefs will once again scheme Rice high-leverage opportunities near the goal line.

Jason Ence called Tyquan Thornton Over 0.5 receiving yards the easiest leg of his MNF parlay. Despite the total being posted at a single yard, Thornton has run double-digit routes in every game and saw two targets in last week’s 31-0 blowout, turning one catch into 39 yards. His average depth of target sits at 26 yards, and Ence expects Mahomes to attack downfield because Washington is "terrible against play-action" and lacks a pass rush to shorten route development.

Jason Ence advised betting Patrick Mahomes Over 23.5 completions at +100. He pointed to Washington using single-high coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the league, a look Mahomes ranks top-10 at exploiting per PFF. Mahomes is completing 73.3% of passes when kept clean, and the Commanders will be without three edge rushers, leaving them dead last in yards allowed per attempt on non-pressure snaps. With Rashee Rice returning from suspension and drawing 10 targets last week, Ence expects Andy Reid to lean on the pass. Mahomes has cleared 23.5 completions in three of his last four games while averaging 35.4 attempts, and Ence believes a pass-heavy script will let him "have a field day" against this undermanned defense.