Despite swearing off Tennessee earlier in the season, Logan is taking Titans +7.5. He is effectively fading Houston, which needed a miracle finish to beat Jacksonville and may again be without C.J. Stroud (concussion). The Texans leave home after three straight in Houston and face a potential look-ahead/short-week sandwich with Buffalo on deck. Tennessee comes off a bye that let interim coach Mike McCoy patch an offense and get injured starters back. Logan highlighted a mismatch in the trenches: the Titans rank 6th in QB-hit rate and 13th in sacks (22) and could feast on a Texans offensive line possibly missing two starters. He cited their Week 9 performance—six sacks and a pick-six versus the Chargers—as evidence the pass rush can disrupt a backup QB and keep this AFC South clash close.

Logan backed Denver +4, pointing out that Andy Reid is just 3-5 ATS off a bye since 2020 despite his reputation. Bettors pushed this line from +3.5 to +4, a dead zone favorites often fail to cover. Denver’s defense is the best Kansas City has faced, ranking top-5 in EPA per play, success rate, and DVOA while leading the league in sacks and QB hits and sitting 4th in pressure rate. He referenced Week 9 when Buffalo pressured Patrick Mahomes on 53 % of dropbacks (3 sacks, 3-for-16 passing, 61 yards, 1 INT under pressure) as proof KC’s offensive line can be cracked. With both clubs enjoying extra rest, Logan expects the Broncos’ relentless front—led by Nik Bonitto—to keep Mahomes uncomfortable and the game inside the number.

Jason Logan grabbed the Commanders +3 on the neutral-site game in Madrid, calling it a classic buy-low/sell-high setup. Miami arrives off an emotional 30-13 win over Buffalo and has flopped in similar situations, going 2-7 SU/ATS after victories the past two seasons. Logan thinks that travel plus coach Mike McDaniel’s post-game trolling of Bills fans creates prime let-down vibes. On the Washington side, new play-caller Dan Quinn is expected to unleash heavier blitz packages to jolt a defense with only four takeaways all year. Logan noted Tua Tagovailoa’s league-high 13 interceptions and No. 1 ranking in 'Danger Plays', believing extra pressure can force more mistakes. With two 3-7 teams in an odd international venue, he sees enough chaos equity to take the field goal with Washington.

Jason Logan recommended Over 4.5 receptions for A.J. Brown at -110. Brown has had three weeks to heal a Week 7 hamstring tweak thanks to a Week 9 bye, and prior to sitting out Week 8 he roasted Minnesota for 121 yards on four catches. He has drawn eight-plus targets in five of seven games this season, topping five receptions in four of those contests. Logan expects full engagement after trade rumors were dismissed by GM Howie Roseman, adding that Brown torched the Packers in the Week 1 Brazil opener with 5 catches for 110 yards and a touchdown. Forecast models project between 4.3 and 5.1 receptions, with the majority above the 4.5 line, so Logan likes the Over.

Jason Logan backed Christian Watson to clear 37.5 receiving yards at -110. The Packers wideout is three games removed from an ACL injury and has logged roughly a 60% snap share while catching 6 of 8 targets for 143 yards the past two weeks, including two explosive gains totaling 85 yards. With injuries thinning Green Bay’s receiving corps, Logan expects a larger route volume. He highlighted Vic Fangio’s man-heavy Eagles defense that routinely erases the WR1 (likely Romeo Doubs) but is surrendering almost 74 yards per game to WR2s. Watson has been Green Bay’s best weapon versus man coverage over his four-year career. Projection models sit north of the posted number, clustering around 50 yards with a ceiling of 55, giving Logan confidence in the Over.

Jason Logan said Jalen Hurts is a strong anytime-touchdown wager at -105 on bet365 for Monday Night Football. Logan tied the recommendation to Philadelphia's "Brotherly Shove" goal-line play that Green Bay tried to outlaw last spring, expecting Nick Sirianni to call it aggressively in this revenge spot. Hurts has not scored in two straight games—his second-longest rushing-TD drought since 2023—which Logan believes will motivate the staff to punch him in from short range. He cited touchdown projections between 0.4 and 0.7 (most ≥0.5) and noted he grabbed the prop earlier in the week at +140 but still likes the current price.

Houston opened ‑7.5 at home, but Logan reported that ‘early movement has been away from the winless Texans, dropping this spread to a touchdown.’ With the lowest Week 4 total on the board at 38.5, the immediate fade signals skepticism of the Texans’ offense and suggests value on Titans backers who grabbed the opening +7.5 before books trimmed the line.

Atlanta opened +3 but Logan noted the line has already dipped to Falcons +2.5 because Washington’s QB Jayden Daniels (knee) and WR Terry McLaurin (quad) exited Week 3 with injuries. He explained that bettors reacted to the uncertain Commanders depth chart despite Atlanta’s 30-0 loss, and suggested the spread could tighten further toward the Falcons if Daniels is ruled out, rewarding those who locked in +2.5 or better.

Logan wrote that San Francisco opened ‑4.5 but is already down to ‑3.5 after star edge rusher Nick Bosa was ‘suspected to have an ACL tear that would end his season,’ coupled with injury watch on QBs Brock Purdy and Mac Jones. The total slid from 46.5 to 45.5. Logan indicated the defensive downgrade and quarterback uncertainty could push the number lower, signaling potential early value on Jaguars +3.5 tickets.

Logan pointed out that Minnesota ‘could have J.J. McCarthy back under center after he missed Week 3 with a high-ankle sprain,’ and early wagers have already flipped the neutral-site line from Steelers ‑1.5 to Vikings ‑1.5. He highlighted the quick 3-point swing as evidence the market is betting on McCarthy’s return, suggesting bettors who agree should lock in Minnesota before books move the number further.

Jason Logan noted that Arizona opened as a 1.5-point home favorite for Thursday Night Football but warned bettors the club has only three days to replace RB James Conner after his severe ankle injury in Week 3. With the total sitting at 43.5, Logan pointed out that the market could shift toward Seattle once the Cardinals’ thin backfield depth is fully priced in, making Seahawks +1.5 or an early Under ticket appealing before the odds move.