For the marquee 3-ball, Rouslin sides with Ludvig Aberg against Hideki Matsuyama and Adam Scott. Aberg’s driving accuracy should be a massive asset at Oakmont. Matsuyama enters nursing multiple injuries, and while Scott’s major experience is vast, Rouslin argues his ceiling no longer matches Aberg’s. Confidence rating: 11/13.

Olesen gets the call over Noah Kent and Thriston Lawrence. Rouslin says the in-form Dane is clearly a class above his two opponents, rating the play inside his top-7 confidence tier.

At +220, Zac Blair is Rouslin’s contrarian dart against Alistair Docherty and Scott Vincent. Blair qualified the hard way, then cashed a paycheck at the RBC Canadian Open and should keep the ball in Oakmont’s narrow fairways—something his opponents have struggled with. Confidence: 8/13 on the card.

Guido Migliozzi over Bryan Lee and top amateur Preston Summerhays. Summerhays’ rapid ascent is impressive, but Rouslin trusts Migliozzi’s proven European Tour pedigree to handle Oakmont’s pressure. Confidence score: 10/13.

Rouslin is on Chris Gotterup to dispatch Mason Howell and Joakim Lagergren. Gotterup has shown spurts of elite distance-driven form and rates as one of the largest round-one favorites on the board. Confidence: top-7 tier.

Carlos Ortiz draws Yuta Sugiura and Matthew Jordan in what Rouslin calls one of the most uneven group of the round. Jordan is a solid DP World Tour pro but lacks elite upside, while Sugiura has struggled since missing the Sony Open cut. Ortiz’s recent LIV performances make him a 9/13 confidence pick.

At +100, Doug Ghim over Alvaro Ortiz and Carlos Blanchet is Rouslin’s value play. Ghim’s recent ball-striking numbers rank among the best in this bottom tier of qualifiers, a skill set tailor-made for Oakmont’s demanding approach shots. Rouslin lists it inside his top-7 confidence bracket.

Rouslin is riding Sam Burns to defeat Nicolas Echavarria and Denny McCarthy. Burns lost a playoff to Ryan Fox last week and notched his first career major top-10 in a major a few weeks, signaling a sharp uptick in form. With confidence ranked in his top 4 bets, Rouslin expects that momentum to carry through Round-1 at Oakmont.

Grillo gets the nod over Sam Bairstow and Frederic Lacroix. Rouslin called it a straightforward talent play: Grillo is the most accomplished golfer of the three and recent strokes-gained numbers show he is moving in the right direction. Confidence level sits in his top-7 tier.

Rouslin likes Mark Hubbard against college star Michael La Sasso and former winner James Hahn. Hubbard owns consistent PGA Tour results plus a T26 at the 2024 PGA Championship, whereas Hahn’s level has fallen dramatically and La Sasso faces a massive leap from college to a U.S. Open setup. Confidence: top-7 pick on the sheet.

Rouslin is backing Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen over Justin Hastings and Laurie Canter. Although Petersen has missed three straight cuts, each start has shown incremental improvement and his metrics point upward. Hastings is the world’s No. 25 amateur and still untested at major-championship level, while Canter’s form has cratered. That combination makes Petersen a confident 13/13 play for the tout.

Rouslin selected Brian Harman to beat Cameron Smith and Phil Mickelson in their Oakmont opener. Harman has been the better player for two straight seasons and arrives in solid form. Rouslin doubts both Smith and Mickelson will keep the driver in play on Oakmont’s brutal fairways, a key weakness that should hand the accuracy-oriented Harman a big edge. Confidence rating: top-4 on his card.

Jason Rouslin backed Rasmus Hojgaard to win his Round-1 three-ball over amateur Benjamin James and Stephan Jaeger. Rouslin noted that Hojgaard is simply playing the best golf of the trio right now and projects as the superior long-term talent. With neither James nor Jaeger showing current form that matches Hojgaard’s ball-striking, Rouslin assigned a confidence rating of 12/13 to the pick.

Jason Rouslin said bettors should back Max Greyserman in the first-round 3-ball against Henrik Norlander and Kevin Kisner. Rouslin argued the pricing essentially makes it a head-to-head with Norlander, and he views Greyserman as clearly superior. Greyserman is coming off a confidence-boosting week where he birdied the 18th on Friday just to make the cut, then climbed to a T-33 finish—form Rouslin believes is more than enough to top Norlander and the badly struggling Kisner. He assigned a 5/9 confidence rating to the play.

Jason Rouslin chose Beau Hossler to beat Danny Willett and Greyson Sigg in their opening-round 3-ball, grading it 5-of-9 in confidence. Hossler “finally found something” at last week’s PGA Championship and now heads home to Texas where he will enjoy crowd support. Rouslin is willing to ride the hot local narrative against two opponents who are not in their best form.

Jason Rouslin endorsed Danny Walker in the Kohles/Walker/Griffin first-round 3-ball with an 8-of-9 confidence grade. Walker comes in having made four straight cuts on the back of sharp iron play and a solid short game. Rouslin noted that Ben Kohles and Lanto Griffin "just aren’t playing well right now," making Walker’s hot streak the decisive factor.

Jason Rouslin picked Isaiah Salinda in the Salinda/Suber/Kanaya 3-ball, giving it 5-of-9 confidence. Rouslin said Takumi Kanaya’s lone pop performance at the CJ Cup is inflating his odds, while Salinda has simply been the better overall player in 2024. With steadier recent form and lower public perception, Salinda offers the betting value for round one.

Jason Rouslin is "going back to Jake Knapp" in the Grillo/Knapp/Kizzire first-round group with 4-of-9 confidence. He argued that Knapp’s missed cut last week came on the number and is disguising how well he is playing overall. Rouslin questioned why Emiliano Grillo is favored over Knapp at most books and sees value in siding with Knapp, whose recent ball-striking remains ahead of Patton Kizzire as well.

Jason Rouslin labeled David Lipsky a pure odds play in the Lipsky/Hoey/Ryder first-round 3-ball, acknowledging the pick carries only 1-of-9 confidence and would likely be omitted from tighter betting cards. Still, Rouslin noted Lipsky’s "superb" course history and believes the market is giving generous plus odds on a player who has repeatedly excelled at this venue. He views that course comfort as enough to justify a small flier despite the long-shot status.

Jason Rouslin recommended Nicolas Echavarria in the Svensson/Garnett/Echavarria opening-round trio, grading it 6-of-9 in confidence. Echavarria has quietly made six straight cuts and his recent ball-striking numbers have been "superb" according to Rouslin. By contrast, Adam Svensson and Brice Garnett have offered little to match that consistency, giving Echavarria a form edge for a single-round wager.

Jason Rouslin backed Aaron Rai to win his first-round 3-ball versus Camilo Villegas and Webb Simpson with a 9-of-9 confidence grade. Rai’s strokes-gained metrics have been trending the right way across the bag, while Villegas and Simpson have shown virtually no recent form. Rouslin believes the disparate trajectories make Rai a clear bet despite any price inflation.

Jason Rouslin said Kurt Kitayama is the play in the Snedeker/Kitayama/Power first-round 3-ball because the ball-striking finally looks elite again. Kitayama has gained heavily with his irons in back-to-back starts, including +3.5 strokes on approach at last week’s PGA Championship. Rouslin noted that the shaky putter masked how well Kitayama struck it, while Seamus Power has relied almost exclusively on hot putting and Brandt Snedeker still is not competing at their level. He assigned a 7-of-9 confidence grade and expects the superior tee-to-green profile to prevail over 18 holes.