Jason Sobel advised locking in Scottie Scheffler at +180 to win the Tour Championship/FedEx Cup right now rather than waiting for tournament week. At the moment, Scheffler only needs to overtake one player on the points list instead of beating 29 players once play begins. Sobel added that he doubts Ludwig Aberg or Robert MacIntyre will erase Scheffler’s cushion before East Lake, so bettors are essentially paying the same +180 price for a much simpler ask. If Scheffler enters the finale only four shots back, the number almost certainly shortens, making the current price the better expected-value play.

Jason Sobel recommended taking a shot on Sam Burns in the outright and “without” markets for the Tour Championship. Sobel compared the event to a first-round-leader bet—volatile and rewarding players who can catch fire—and argued Burns is tailor-made for that environment. The LSU product is solid enough tee-to-green to handle East Lake’s ball-striking demands, yet owns one of the streakiest putters on TOUR, capable of pouring in birdies if the PGA sets the course up easier, as Sobel expects. Burns has not won all season, but Sobel believes his ceiling is high enough to steal the FedEx Cup in a 30-player field if he posts one of his trademark “roll-everything-in” weeks.

Hall is Sobel’s aggressive FRL flyer at +4000. The Englishman just climbed to No. 1 in Strokes Gained: Putting and has broken 70 in 17 of 22 opening rounds this season, including 10 of his last 11, ranking fifth in R1 scoring average. Sobel loves targeting elite putters who ‘go nuclear’ on the greens and says Hall’s attack-from-hole-one mentality makes him the ideal Thursday splash play at a juicy number.

For first-round leader, Sobel likes Justin Thomas at +2800 precisely because his Thursday outcomes swing wildly. The same player who opened the RBC Heritage with a 61 has also carded an 80 at the Memorial and 78 at The Players. Southwind ceiling exists—Thomas has begun this event with 67 in two separate years—and FRL bets prioritize spike rounds over consistency. Sobel embraces the volatility, believing Thomas’ elite iron play can flash early before any putting woes creep in.

Sobel’s aggressive top-20 is Daniel Berger at +125. Berger opened 2025 with ten top-30s in his first twelve starts but has slumped outside the top-30 for seven straight. Southwind is his personal playground—back-to-back victories here in 2016 and 2017—and he enters 30th in FedEx Cup points, needing a good week to secure a Tour Championship berth. Sobel thinks familiar sightlines and positive memories can ignite a form rebound that comfortably lands inside the top-20.

Sobel’s conservative top-20 pick is Jake Knapp at +175. Before a missed cut at Wyndham, Knapp rattled off five straight top-30s, two inside the top-5, powered by a lethal driver-and-putter profile. Sobel likes that the early exit in Greensboro gave Knapp a rare weekend to rest after a packed summer schedule. In a 69-man field, finishing 20th means beating only 71% of entrants, so Sobel sees value despite course fit concerns with Knapp’s irons.

For an aggressive top-10 play at +500, Sobel chose Chris Kirk. Kirk vaulted from 73rd to 61st in FedEx Cup points with a T-5 last week, proving the six-time winner still heats up quickly. Though he finished 16th and 50th here the last two years, he owns four rounds of 67 or better across those eight loops, evidence he can fire low numbers at Southwind when the putter cooperates.

Russell Henley mirrors Fleetwood in Sobel’s eyes—elite iron play, steady floor, and a recent Southwind top-10—so he advocates a separate or parlayed top-10 at +200. Henley’s precise approach game mitigates Southwind’s water-guarded greens, giving him multiple paths to another high finish.

Sobel labeled Tommy Fleetwood a "world-class ball-striker with an unequivocally high floor" and recommended a conservative top-10 at +175. Fleetwood owns a top-10 at Southwind within the last two years and rarely loses strokes tee-to-green, making him a dependable anchor play in a limited 69-man field.

Sobel’s aggressive top-5 stab is Harris English at +650. The 36-year-old has already won the Farmers Insurance Open, finished solo second at both the PGA Championship and The Open, and grabbed T-4 at the Travelers—form that has him on the inside of the Ryder Cup discussion. English won on this exact course in 2013 and Sobel believes those good vibes will offset lackluster results here the past two seasons. Given the six-week heater and proven Southwind pedigree, Sobel sees +650 as value.

For a conservative top-5 ticket, Sobel backed Patrick Cantlay at +500. Cantlay ranks 12th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 11th in SG: Total this season, gaining on approach in 12 of his last 14 starts. The two poor weeks were both majors, skewing his results and masking elite ball-striking. Southwind suits him: he lost a playoff here two years ago and finished T-12 last year. Sitting 14th in U.S. Ryder Cup points, Cantlay badly needs a statement finish; Sobel expects iron-play regression to the mean and thinks a top-5 cashes at +500.

Sobel’s aggressive outright dart is Cameron Young at +4000. Young snapped a four-year victory drought by winning in Greensboro and Sobel drew a parallel to Lucas Glover’s 2023 Greensboro/Memphis back-to-back, arguing Young owns far more win equity than Glover did. Motivation is high with a potential Ryder Cup berth in his home state of New York on the line, and Young credited renewed chemistry with former Wake Forest teammate–turned-caddie Kyle Sterbinsky for the hot run. Sobel believes Young will keep the gas pedal down while his tee-to-green game is peaking, making +4000 too long.

Jason Sobel said Sam Burns is his conservative outright play at +3300 because TPC Southwind is a 125-175-yard wedge contest where strong putting separates contenders. Burns ranked second in the field in putting here last year, trailing only winner Hideki Matsuyama, and parlayed that to a T-5. Sobel noted Burns’ nickname, “Bermuda Burns,” to emphasize how comfortable he is on these greens. Although Burns has logged three straight finishes outside the top-40 since contending at both the RBC Canadian Open and U.S. Open, Sobel compared the skid to Cameron Young’s pre-Greensboro slump and expects similar bounce-back potential. He called +3300 a fair number in a week where many outright prices feel too short.

Jason Sobel highlighted Akshay Bhatia as an early target for Wyndham as long as Bhatia does not win the 3M Open. Sobel said a confidence-boosting top-five would carry form into Sedgefield without the emotional drain or price inflation that comes with a victory. Bhatia's precise irons and comfort on Bermuda greens match the “accuracy over distance” prototype needed at this par-70. If Bhatia does grab the 3M trophy, Sobel will likely downgrade him next week.

Jason Sobel advised passing on Ben Griffin in outright markets even though Sedgefield suits his accurate, birdie-making game. Griffin already owns two PGA Tour wins this season and Sobel argued the "law of averages" makes a third victory in the same year unlikely, especially at short odds. Sobel still expects Griffin to play well and could consider him for DFS or finishing-position props, but he will look elsewhere for his outright tickets.

Jason Sobel said he will once again click Denny McCarthy for both outrights and DFS at Sedgefield. The course is only 7,100 yards, a par-70 that historically turns into a 18–20-under birdie-fest and demands accuracy plus a hot putter – the exact profile McCarthy brings. Sobel has rostered McCarthy here five straight years and believes “at some point Denny McCarthy wins a golf tournament,” expecting that first win to come on a Bermuda-green layout where rolling in putts is mandatory.

Jason Sobel told viewers he is "all out on Tony Finau" this week despite Finau’s 2022 victory at TPC Twin Cities. Sobel originally planned to use Finau as his one-and-done pick but scrapped the idea after digging into the numbers: Finau has been hemorrhaging strokes off the tee for the past month, ranking near the bottom of the field in SG:OTT and routinely missing fairways—an issue Sobel emphasized is fatal on a layout with water in play on 15 holes. He recalled watching Finau freefall 42 spots on a single leaderboard last Friday, evidence that the driver problems are leading to sudden blow-ups. With TPC Twin Cities rewarding aggressive yet accurate ball-striking, Sobel sees no reason to pay a mid-tier outright price or include Finau in DFS builds until the big stick rebounds. Patrick McDonald echoed the sentiment, saying he was "good not having any exposure," but Sobel drove the point home: Finau is a full fade in every betting market this week.

Jason Sobel grabbed Will Gordon at a massive 250-1 after back-to-back finishes of 23rd and 14th kept his card alive. Sobel reminded listeners that Gordon only remained eligible because Michael Kim three-putted to miss the John Deere cut, underscoring the Texan’s new-lease-on-life motivation. Despite missing the cut in all four prior 3M starts, Sobel trusts the uptick in form and notes Gordon’s power should play on a course yielding five long-shot winners in six years. The price bakes in the ugly course history, but Sobel says a hot driver plus renewed confidence makes him the kind of deep dart that pays off at TPC Twin Cities.

Sobel sprinkled Erik Van Rooyen at 90-1 despite awful course history (three missed cuts and a finish outside the top-50). The angle is pure momentum plus Minnesota mojo: Van Rooyen attended the University of Minnesota, his wife’s entire family will be on-site, and he’s fresh off a runner-up at the Barracuda where he closed Eagle-Birdie. Sobel noted EVR is a classic streak player—when the putter heats up he can rip off weeks of elite golf—and thinks the emotional boost of a pseudo-home game could unlock another ceiling performance in a weak field where longshots regularly win.

Jason Sobel is back on Wyndham Clark as an outright in the mid-20s because the talent finally looks synced with results again. Clark bottomed out earlier this summer—publicly smashing lockers and chucking a driver—but the emotional release seems to have worked. Since returning from Europe he’s posted 11th and 4th-place finishes, gaining strokes in every major category. Sobel compared the bounce-back to recent ‘rock-bottom then win’ runs from Viktor Hovland and Matt Fitzpatrick and believes books are slow to adjust; Clark is priced longer than Burns and McNeely despite an equal ceiling. On a course where distance sets up scoring chances, Sobel thinks Clark’s power plus renewed confidence is a perfect fit.

Sobel wagered on Adam Svensson +300 for a top-20, citing elite strokes-gained off-the-tee numbers. Svensson ranked 16th off the tee at Royal Troon and third tee-to-green, closing with 66. He sits 10th on Tour in SG:OTT for the season, a key stat with TPC Twin Cities’ penal water hazards. Sobel believes the Canadian is one of the most underrated drivers on Tour and that his current ball-striking surge carries over to Minnesota, making the 3-1 price attractive.

Jason Sobel went back to Max Greyserman for a top-10 after the Rutgers product finished runner-up here last year and historically heats up in late summer. Sobel noted Greyserman’s ability to repeat form on the same tracks—he caught fire at this point of the calendar in 2023 and has already flashed upside again this month. In a field light on elite talent, Sobel wants to bank on one of the few players he considers 'really good' and suggested even climbing the ladder to top-5/Win if bettors prefer a higher payout.

Sobel is taking Kevin Yu at even money in a tournament H2H versus Sungjae Im. Im’s approach play has cratered—five missed cuts in his last seven starts—while Yu’s tee-to-green numbers are trending up. Add Yu’s length advantage at TPC Twin Cities and Sobel is happy to fade a cold Sungjae until the Korean star shows signs of life.

Jason Sobel grabbed Taylor Pendrith at +140 to be top Canadian. With only four countrymen in the field—Adam Svensson, Adam Hadwin, Mackenzie Hughes, and Ben Silverman—Sobel thinks Pendrith’s driver-heavy profile and pre-trip form make him a strong favorite on a course that historically rewards distance. The limited competition makes the plus-money price stand out.

Sobel also recommends Cameron Champ for First-Round Leader (60-plus-to-1). Champ opened last week’s Barracuda in second place before imploding Friday—proof of his one-round ceiling. TPC Twin Cities rewards his elite length, and Sobel prefers isolating that upside on Thursday rather than trusting Champ’s shaky accuracy and putter for 72 holes.

Jason Sobel wants exposure to Davis Thompson only in the First-Round Leader market (≈55-1) at TPC Twin Cities. Thompson ranks near the top of this field in driving distance and birdies-or-better, flashed upside with a PLAYERS top-10 and a 54-hole lead at the John Deere, yet tends to tighten up on weekends. A Thursday-only ticket captures his ceiling while avoiding those late-round nerves.

Jason Sobel said he would start Chris Gotterup on the 2025 U.S. Ryder Cup roster ahead of Sam Burns and Maverick McNealy because Gotterup offers the most scoring potential. Sobel emphasized that Bethpage (a big Northeast ballpark) rewards length, and Gotterup routinely eagles and birdies par-5s—exactly the skill set that piles up points in match play. Experience and season-long form matter less to Sobel than raw upside; he believes Gotterup's aggressive style fits the venue and format better than his more polished competitors.

Jason Sobel cautioned bettors about backing Rory McIlroy to win the 153rd Open at Royal Portrush, reminding readers that McIlroy famously pushed his opening tee shot out of bounds the last time the championship visited the venue in 2019 and ultimately missed the cut while hometown wagers on Shane Lowry cashed. Sobel outlined the "five emotional stages of Rory wagering"—initial optimism, Friday-night euphoria, Saturday bogey-induced concern, a Sunday missed-putt crisis, and the inevitable vow to never bet him again—arguing that McIlroy’s historical tendency to begin majors hot before a weekend stumble makes outright tickets a nerve-shredding, low-value proposition even though he arrives as the reigning Masters champion.

Jason Sobel backed Thomas Detry in outright and placement markets, pointing to a stack of recent and historical links results. Detry finished inside the top-20 at the RBC Canadian Open and grabbed a top-25 at the U.S. Open, then returns to a venue where he owns a T10 and a playoff loss from the pre-co-sanction days. Sobel argued that those finishes prove Detry’s game travels and that his tee-to-green profile matches Renaissance’s demand for long-iron precision. With each of Detry’s last three starts showing ball-striking gains, Sobel expects odds makers to finally shorten him, so he plans to grab an early number before steam hits.

Jason Sobel highlighted Harry Hall as a placement-market and longshot outright target. Hall fits Sobel’s preferred profile of Europeans who spend most of the season on the PGA Tour but return ‘home’ for links golf—often producing their best results. Hall’s elite putting (Top-10 SG:Putting on the PGA Tour) offsets any around-the-green concerns at Renaissance, where putts from off the surface are common. Sobel believes familiarity with windy UK conditions gives Hall an edge over American counterparts and plans to attack top-20/top-40 markets, sprinkling a small outright ticket if triple-digit odds appear.

Jason Sobel said Hovland is the lone elite player he is willing to chase outright at the Renaissance Club. Sobel believes the pre-Scottish Open withdrawal has kept Hovland’s number from getting "too short," creating rare betting value on a world-class ball-striker whose game suits a 7,300-yard par-70 with five demanding par 3s. The WD was precautionary for a minor neck issue, and Sobel thinks Hovland’s recent European vacation videos are proof he is healthy. With ball-striking expected to outweigh around-the-green skill this week, Sobel sees Hovland’s tee-to-green profile and links pedigree as a perfect fit and plans to fire on any price that drifts because of recency bias.

Jason Sobel tabbed Christian Bezuidenhout as a live outright and DFS core play for TPC Deere Run. Sobel highlighted Bezuidenhout’s elite combination of fairway accuracy and scrambling—skills that mirror past champions Zach Johnson and Steve Stricker. Over his last 24 rounds, Bezuidenhout ranks top-15 on TOUR in SG: Putting and top-25 in fairways gained, exactly the mold Sobel believes wins birdie-fests. Although Bezuidenhout rarely flashes distance, Sobel pointed to his three worldwide victories (including two on tight South African tracks) as proof he can close when in contention. He expects odds near 40-45/1, giving plenty of breathing room for a two-unit outright and heavy DFS exposure.

Jason Sobel grabbed Jacob Bridgeman in the show’s mock draft, calling him a classic TPC Deere Run sleeper. Though Bridgman can be erratic off the tee, Sobel likes that wide fairways reduce that weakness, letting Bridgman’s plus-iron game (gaining in approach in 8 of his last 10 measured rounds) and streaky putter shine. Sobel framed him as an "up-and-comer with sustainable long-term talent" whose price should land in the mid-to-high 50/1 range, making him a multi-unit DFS GPP target and a sprinkle on the outright card.

Jason Sobel argued that the John Deere is the perfect venue for J.T. Poston to nab a second TOUR win. Poston ranks 6th on TOUR in SG: Putting over the last 50 rounds and has historically spiked on shorter par-71s, including his victory at the 2019 Wyndham (another wedge-heavy event that required −22). Sobel believes Poston’s lack of length is neutralized at TPC Deere Run, where hitting fairways and converting birdie looks outweigh driver distance. With books likely hanging him in the 35-45/1 tier, Sobel plans to target Poston for outright, top-10, and FRL markets while mixing him into cash-game DFS builds that emphasize putter-friendly upside.

Jason Sobel mentioned Thriston ("Tristan") Lawrence as another player whose current surge at the Rocket Mortgage could translate into a viable John Deere dart. Lawrence, historically a streaky scorer, has gained over six strokes tee-to-green through three rounds in Detroit and owns multiple DP World Tour wins on sub-7,300-yard tracks. If he closes well, Sobel expects odds in the 60–80/1 range, making Lawrence a GPP flyer with top-10 upside and a candidate for FRL (first-round leader) bets given his aggressive birdie rate.

Jason Sobel said he will add Mark Hubbard to his John Deere outright and DFS pool as long as Hubbard converts his current contention at the Rocket Mortgage into another strong finish. Sobel described Hubbard as a clear momentum golfer whose best stretches (three straight top-20s earlier this spring) tend to cluster. Hubbard’s profile—top-40 in SG: Approach and 17th in proximity 125-150 yards—matches the wedge-fest nature of TPC Deere Run. Expecting books to price him in the 50/1 neighborhood, Sobel labeled him a live long-shot and a high-owned cash-game anchor in DFS.

Jason Sobel targeted Denny McCarthy as an immediate bet despite anticipating a very short price (around 20–22/1) after books hung him 20/1 last year. Sobel noted McCarthy’s video-game level consistency at TPC Deere Run: T6, T6, and T7 in his last three trips. That track rewards accuracy and hot putting—McCarthy ranks 3rd on TOUR in SG: Putting over the past 24 rounds and hits 68% of fairways—mirroring the profile of past champions Zach Johnson and Steve Stricker. He also pointed out the parallels between TPC Deere Run and TPC River Highlands, where McCarthy routinely contends, reinforcing the fit for both DFS cores and outright exposure.

Jason Sobel said the Rocket Mortgage Classic is one of the most predictive stops on Tour because it rewards pure fire-power and birdie making. He plans to fade expensive headliners such as Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, and other elite names who are squeezing Detroit into an already brutal month-long run of Memorial, U.S. Open, Travelers and the upcoming Scottish swing. Sobel expects their motivation and energy levels to be low after that grind, while sportsbooks will still hang short odds on them. He prefers reallocating outright and DFS exposure to mid-tier bombers who can rack up birdies without the inflated price tags.

Sobel paired Rai with Rickie Fowler at the same +5000 FRL price. While Fowler has three missed cuts here in the past seven years, the four weekends he’s survived have all resulted in top-20 finishes, confirming he can torch the place when the swing is synced. Sobel prefers exploiting that volatility in a single-round market, especially after Fowler gained 2.1 strokes on approach during the U.S. Open’s final round—evidence the irons could be peaking just in time for another fast start.

For first-round leader at +5000, Sobel highlighted Aaron Rai’s habit of jumping out quickly—documented by a 65 in round one of the Truist Atlanta event and a 67 to open the PGA Championship. Rai ranks top-10 on Tour in round-one scoring average and excels with controlled iron shots that stay below hole locations, a style that historically produces low Thursday numbers at River Highlands.

Taylor’s best Travelers finish is a middling T-42, yet Sobel still snagged the Canadian at +220 for a top-20 after a three-week run of 4th (Memorial), 13th (RBC Canadian) and 23rd (U.S. Open). The five-time worldwide winner has been gaining a combined 15 strokes tee-to-green over that span, making the current form too hot to ignore even with the historically bad course log. Sobel expects the layout’s emphasis on wedge play to finally match Taylor’s skill set.

Sobel made Bud Cauley his conservative top-20 play at +260 because the Floridian quietly ranks 12th in total strokes gained this season and sits inside the top-50 in OTT, approach and putting. With four finishes of sixth or better since March, Cauley’s recent ceiling is evident, and Sobel expects the course’s smaller, flatter greens to mask the player’s only average short-game numbers.

Young cashed a top-40 at the RBC Canadian Open and a top-20 at the U.S. Open, so Sobel logically moves the next rung up—top-10 at +320. The Wake Forest alum grew up on Northeast bent-poa surfaces and flashed elite driving in both recent starts, gaining over 2 strokes off the tee per round. With confidence finally matching his ball-striking, Sobel believes bettors should stick with the ‘ladder strategy’ until the results cool off.

Although Jordan Spieth has not cracked the top-40 here since his famous 2017 bunker walk-off, Sobel thinks the Texan is bubbling toward something big and recommends a +320 top-10 ticket. Recent strokes-gained totals show incremental progress in approach and putting over the last month, and Spieth traditionally pops at courses where creativity around green complexes is rewarded—a River Highlands hallmark. Sobel calls this a ‘buy signal’ before sportsbooks adjust to a potential mid-summer heater.

Sobel grabbed Denny McCarthy +1200 for a top-five (and a sprinkle on the 100/1 outright) because TPC River Highlands rewards the precision-putting recipe McCarthy rides. The Maryland product ranks top-5 on Tour in putting average and has recently proven he can contend on beastly setups like Torrey Pines, Quail Hollow and Muirfield, so a 6,850-yard, target-golf course should be even more favorable. Sobel expects a ‘birdie fest’ where McCarthy’s streaky flat stick generates the 64 or 65 he’ll need to hang around the podium.

Sobel suggested an aggressive outright swing on Daniel Berger at +5000 despite consecutive missed cuts. He reminded readers that Berger finished inside the top-five in each of his first two Travelers starts and routinely spends summers sharpening his game in New England, giving him more local reps than most of the field. The analyst framed the recent slump as noise within a broader comeback season and argued bettors should give the former world top-20 one more week on a track that suits his controlled, left-to-right ball flight.

Jason Sobel backed Collin Morikawa at +1600 to win the Travelers Championship, calling him the most attractive name once Scottie Scheffler’s ultra-short +275 number was crossed off. Sobel noted Morikawa led the entire U.S. Open field in final-round approach play at Oakmont en route to a quiet T-23, the kind of ‘simmering form’ he likes to target the week after a major. The two-time major champ also finished T-13 at TPC River Highlands last season, giving him course comfort on a layout where iron play and precision wedges dominate. With a 70-man signature-event field tightening win equity, Sobel believes Morikawa’s elite irons and modest betting price combine for the best conservative outright ticket.

Jason Sobel backed the favorite, Scottie Scheffler, to lift the trophy with a winning total of ‑1. Sobel argued Oakmont demands excellence in every facet—long and straight drives, high-flying approaches, deft scrambling, and rock-solid putting—and said “nobody in the world does everything better than Scottie.” He cited a major-championship trend in which Scheffler has won two of the last six and emphasized Scheffler’s unmatched consistency: elite par-saving, avoidance of compounded errors, and a calm demeanor that prevents blow-up stretches. With odds shorter than 3-to-1, Sobel still sees Scheffler as the rightful betting favorite and expects him to be the lone player in red numbers when the week ends.

Jason Sobel touted Harris English for Top-20 and Top-10 bets, emphasizing his repeated success on ‘big boy’ courses. English owns a win at Torrey Pines and a runner-up at Quail Hollow this season while ranking 6th in strokes-gained approach over the last 24 rounds on courses longer than 7,400 yards. Sobel noted English’s fairway-finder driver and lag-putting prowess on 14.5+ stimp greens—both critical at Oakmont—give him sneaky equity even if outright upside is limited. With sportsbooks still hanging +500 for a Top-20 and +1100 for a Top-10, Sobel sees English as a profitable finishing-position target rather than a long-shot outright.

Jason Sobel labeled Tommy Fleetwood a prototypical U.S. Open ‘top-10 floor’ play. Fleetwood’s fairway-first driving and deft short game limit big numbers, letting him grind to something like +3 over 72 holes—good enough for a back-door T8 on a course where par is a premium. Sobel pointed to available +450 Top-10 and 2-to-1 Top-20 odds as undervalued, arguing Fleetwood rarely contends but almost always cashes finishing-position tickets at tough venues (T5 2023 U.S. Open, T10 2022 PGA). He views Fleetwood as a safe cash-game anchor on DFS sites where the Englishman sits in the mid $8K range.