Jason Sobel admitted he “cheated” on the under-the-radar exercise by choosing Justin Thomas, but said the data supports a punt on the two-time PGA winner. Thomas ranks third in strokes-gained approach and seventh around the green over the last six weeks, his best stretch since 2017—the year he first lifted the Wanamaker at Quail Hollow. Although he has not posted a top-20 in his last nine majors, Sobel believes returning to a comfortable venue and a rain-softened layout that accentuates iron play could unlock Thomas’s ceiling. With outright numbers hovering around 40-1, Sobel is adding JT to his betting card, playing him in top-10 markets, and targeting him as a leverage play in DFS builds that will be saturated with Rory and Scheffler exposure.

Jason Sobel told bettors hunting triple-digit tickets to grab Tony Finau at 100-1. The logic: Quail Hollow rewards sheer power, and Finau ranks top-10 in both driving distance and strokes-gained tee-to-green over the past eight weeks. Sobel argued that when the winning score is likely near even par, Finau’s occasionally balky putter becomes less punitive, while his high apex long-iron flight helps hold the expected firm greens. With eight career PGA Tour victories—including a win at another long, soft venue in Minneapolis—Finau owns true win equity. Sobel is playing a quarter-unit outright, a half-unit top-10, and sprinkling Finau into DFS showdown slates as a low-rostered upside play.

Sobel thinks Xander Schauffele is "on the precipice" of another big win but doubts it happens this week. The defending champ missed two months early in the season with a rib injury and, according to Patrick McDonald’s tracking, still hasn’t driven the ball well in 2025. Quail Hollow is playing unusually long and demands elite driving, so Sobel worries Schauffele’s rust off the tee will surface over four rounds. For betting he prefers top-20 props over outrights and will be underweight on Schauffele in DFS until the driver metrics rebound.

Sobel warned bettors not to treat Scottie Scheffler as automatic this week. Scheffler has never played an individual stroke-play event at Quail Hollow and posted forgettable results during the 2022 Presidents Cup, where Sam Burns had to “carry his carcass.” Sobel emphasized that majors have been razor-thin the past two years, so even losing a single stroke to Quail-specific experience could drop Scheffler behind seasoned horses like McIlroy, Bryson and Xander. While acknowledging the world No. 1’s elite tee-to-green metrics, Sobel is downgrading Scheffler in outrights and prefers sprinkling him only in DFS lineups rather than building around him.

Jason Sobel said Rory McIlroy arrives at Quail Hollow with every arrow pointing his way. McIlroy finally ticked off the Masters last month, so Sobel argued he is now “unburdened” and playing looser golf than anyone else on Earth. The numbers back it up—McIlroy owns the lowest cumulative score to par in majors since 2020 and has already won four PGA Tour events on this course. With the rain-softened setup expected to stretch past 7,600 yards, Sobel thinks McIlroy’s high-draw driver gives him a massive edge, especially on the bomber-friendly 16th where he can comfortably fly the new 330-yard bunker. In Sobel’s eyes the combination of elite recent form, course horseship and a clear mental slate makes McIlroy the man to bet outright and a core DFS play.

Jason Sobel circled Patrick Reed for top-10 and top-20 placement bets rather than an outright. Reed finished T2 the last time a PGA was held at Quail Hollow and came T5 at this year’s Masters despite limited LIV reps. Sobel pointed out that Reed routinely raises his ceiling at majors and owns one of the field’s best short games, a trait that becomes critical when Quail Hollow’s thick surrounds force players to scramble. Length is not Reed’s calling card, but on a firm setup Sobel thinks his creativity around the greens offsets the yardage deficit. With books still hanging +300 or longer for a top-20, Sobel sees actionable value before the market tightens.

Jason Sobel plans a one-and-done outright card, leaning solely on Rory McIlroy at +500. Sobel noted Quail Hollow has essentially been Rory’s personal playground—four career victories on the course plus a 2017 PGA contended run. Members told Sobel the club was lengthened in a way similar to Augusta’s Tiger-proofing, which ironically favors the very bomber they might be trying to rein in. Sobel also praised Rory’s current swing, saying he is "swinging freer and easier than ever" and that his recent off-course triumphs mean he is playing without the weight of expectations. With the track stretching 7,600 yards and likely yielding a winning score near –8 again, Sobel believes it will be “really, really difficult to beat Rory McIlroy on this golf course,” adding only Scheffler, Bryson, JT, or Xander have the firepower to keep pace.

Jason Sobel advised deploying a ladder approach on Wyndham Clark at the Truist Championship. With Clark sitting around 28-1 in early outright markets despite being a reigning U.S. Open champion, Sobel sees ‘plenty of meat’ on the outright but is even more intrigued by plus-money numbers in the top-5 (+500) and top-10 (+250) markets. He noted Clark’s elite length (7th in SG: Off-the-Tee), birdie rate (4.5 per round), and proven upside in small no-cut fields. Although recent form is lukewarm—losing strokes on approach in three of his last four starts—Sobel believes the softer setup expected at Philadelphia Cricket Club will mask the iron wobble and reward his distance-wedge combo. He plans to ladder bets starting with a full-unit outright, then half-unit top-5 and quarter-unit top-10 tickets to capture multiple payout paths.

Sobel added Wyndham Clark to his betting pool, explaining that the U.S. Open champ’s length is a sneaky advantage on a sub-7,200-yard par-70 because it will leave him wedges into most of the long par-4s while shorter hitters still face mid-irons. Clark ranks inside the top-10 in SG: Off-the-Tee and birdies-per-round this season, traits Sobel says will play if the event turns into the 25-under type shootout he’s projecting. With Clark regularly priced in the 25-1 to 30-1 range at recent signature events, Sobel believes there will be “plenty of meat left on the outright number” and intends to chase that ceiling in both outrights and single-entry DFS contests.

Jason Sobel said Patrick Cantlay would be his “first click” if books hang anything close to a fair outright price. He expects the Philadelphia Cricket Club to play closer to 20-under than 10-under because the TOUR typically sets up one-off venues for birdies so members can jump back on the course Monday. Sobel likes Cantlay’s combination of elite birdie rate, proven bent-grass putting, and strong history at northeastern tracks. He also labeled the former FedExCup champ as simply “due” after several close calls this season. Translation: if Cantlay drifts to 12-1 or longer, Sobel will fire an outright and use him as a DFS cornerstone.

Isaiah Salinda is Sobel’s aggressive FRL pick at +8000. Salinda ranks 22nd on Tour in Round-1 scoring average and just posted a best-ball 58 with Kevin Velo at the Zurich Classic. Sobel values his power and birdie rate for a one-round gamble and prefers the Thursday-only angle over a full-tournament stance, expecting Salinda to attack early before volatility creeps in.

Sobel listed Charley Hoffman at +9000 for first-round leader. Hoffman has opened with 65 or 66 in two of his last five starts and historically excels when Texas winds kick up. Though his recent Byron Nelson record is poor, the FRL market isolates Hoffman’s spike-round potential while avoiding the weekend fade that has plagued him in full-tournament bets.

For an aggressive top-40, Sobel picked 37-year-old Joseph Bramlett (market pending). Bramlett has finished inside the top-40 in four of his last six PGA starts and in each of his last three Korn Ferry appearances. He owns event form of T-7 and T-19 since the tournament moved to Craig Ranch. Although Bramlett often fades on weekends, Sobel trusts his high floor relative to expected odds, making him a solid sprinkle in shallow markets or parlays.

Castillo is Sobel’s conservative top-40 play (market to be posted). The long-hitting rookie has cashed top-40s in two of his last four solo starts—and three of five if you include the Zurich team event—showing a pattern of steady acclimation to PGA setups. Sobel chose Castillo over similar profile Rico Hoey because Castillo’s putter has flashed while Hoey’s remains a liability in the low-score environment expected at Craig Ranch.

Sobel targeted Sam Stevens for a top-10 at +600 and notes his outright at +8000 is almost double the price he expected. Stevens hasn’t logged a top-10 since contending at the Farmers Insurance Open three months ago, which explains the drift. Still, he has made the cut in both prior Craig Ranch appearances and owns the kind of birdie rate needed in a 25-under shootout. Sobel believes Stevens’ ceiling is mispriced relative to the field and is happy to take advantage before a rebound collapses the odds.

Sobel advised a top-10 bet on Jordan Spieth at +160. Spieth’s 2025 results correlate almost perfectly with his flatstick: he has finished 18th or better in all five starts where he gained strokes putting and 28th or worse in the four where he did not. At TPC Craig Ranch, strong putting yielded a 2nd and a 9th, while poor putting produced a missed cut. Sobel expects extra motivation with Spieth chasing the career grand slam next month and seeing peers Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas lift trophies. In an inferior field, the top-10 ticket is Sobel’s preferred exposure over an outright.

Thorbjornsen is Sobel’s aggressive top-5 at +1100. The former world No. 1 amateur just finished solo 2nd at the Corales Puntacana and followed with a team top-5 at the Zurich Classic. Sobel compared him to Ludvig Aberg’s breakout at the 2023 RSM Classic, stressing his elite talent is finally translating to PGA-level leaderboards. Given the weak Craig Ranch field, Sobel expects sportsbooks will soon shorten Thorbjornsen’s prices and wants exposure before that happens. He will sprinkle outright wagers but considers the top-5 the core position.

Sobel recommended Lee Hodges at +1200 for a top-5. The former 3M Open champion opened 2025 with two top-10s in five starts, missed nearly two months with a rib injury, then returned to finish T-11. Sobel views Hodges as one of the Tour’s most underrated ball-strikers, arguing that low public perception still hasn’t caught up to his ceiling. He likes getting ahead of the inevitable odds correction by playing Hodges at Craig Ranch, a layout that rewards consistent iron play.

At +8000, Alejandro Tosti is Sobel’s "aggressive" outright. Tosti ranks 5th on Tour in driving distance, owns recent finishes of 2nd-12th-5th, and matches the profile of the last four Byron Nelson champions whose average pre-tournament price was 87/1. Sobel highlighted Tosti’s contradiction-filled personality—trash-talking peers while handing out homemade empanadas—but emphasized his current form and raw power are tailor-made for a 25-under winning score. The tout believes continued contending will slash future prices, so now is the time to buy the bomber.

Sobel labeled Byeong-Hun An his "conservative" outright at +2200. An has never shot worse than 68 at Craig Ranch over the last two years (66-67-66-65 last season) yet still finished only T-4. The tout likes An’s offensive ceiling and recent all-around form—three straight tournaments gaining off the tee, on approach and around the green. The putter is the historical weakness, but An has rolled it well at this venue before, giving Sobel confidence the low-scoring environment won’t neutralize him. Sobel framed the pick as another potential "finally" narrative after multiple first-time winners surfaced on Tour in recent weeks.

Jason Sobel warned bettors to stay away from Scottie Scheffler at +250 outright. Scheffler is 50-under in three career starts at TPC Craig Ranch and has broken par in 11 of 12 rounds, yet his best finish is T-5. Sobel argued that winning scores of 23- to 26-under turn the event into a birdie-fest that levels the playing field, noting Scheffler went 0-for-8 in 2025 despite similar low-scoring environments at The Sentry (25-under) and The AmEx (21-under). With a weak field and volatile scoring, Sobel believes the chance of an upset is too high to justify Scheffler’s extremely short odds.

Jason Sobel proposed Jordan Spieth as an excellent first-round leader betting option at +3500, highlighting Spieth's well-known volatility and immense potential for exceptional single-round scoring bursts. Spieth's statistical profile shows balanced metrics across multiple categories including approach and short game, reinforcing his consistent scoring upside. Sobel notes Spieth's tendency to make both brilliant and chaotic shots back-to-back, but believes the ceiling outweighs the risks, especially in a single-round market like first-round leader betting. Citing Spieth's unpredictability and explosive scoring ability, Sobel strongly recommended taking advantage of the Texas native's potential upside at the Valero Texas Open.

Jason Sobel recommended Ryan Fox as a conservative top-40 pick at +110 odds, drawing attention to Fox's recent physical transformation and rise in form that resulted in two top-20 finishes in his past three events. Sobel believes the Kiwi golfer, who thrived last week at the Texas Children's Houston Open, is now positioned to excel regularly on the PGA Tour after extensive international success. Sobel views the Valero Texas Open as an ideal spot where Fox can deliver another reliable top-40 finish, making him an attractive low-risk betting choice.

Jason Sobel pointed to Charley Hoffman at +320 odds as an aggressive yet appealing top-20 betting option, backed by Hoffman's extraordinary track record at the Valero Texas Open. Sobel underscored Hoffman's remarkable consistency at this tournament—17 made cuts in 18 appearances, along with 13 top-25 performances, seven top-10 finishes, three runner-up results, and one victory. Though Hoffman hasn't secured a top-20 result at the event in the last three editions, Sobel expects him to reverse this recent drought given Hoffman's known affinity and past successes at TPC San Antonio.

Jason Sobel endorsed Tommy Fleetwood as a conservative top-10 play at +275, citing strong recent performances at similar venues that prioritize ball-striking. Fleetwood recently finished T-11 at Bay Hill and followed that up with finishes of T-14 and T-16. Despite acknowledging the tendency towards floor finishes over victories, Sobel argued that the layout of TPC San Antonio perfectly matches Fleetwood's approach-centric style, suggesting safety and potential upside in betting him within the top-10 this week.

Jason Sobel identified Tom Kim at +750 as a conservative top-5 betting selection, highlighting a prime rebound opportunity due to Kim's persistently strong iron play. Kim has gained strokes on approach shots in each of his eight tournament starts this season, though these excellent iron statistics have not yet translated fully into top-tier finishes due largely to poor putting performances. Sobel sees the Valero Texas Open as a favorable spot where Kim's underlying strong approach numbers may finally produce an elite finish in a weaker-than-usual field.

Jason Sobel recommended Matteo Manassero as an aggressive outright betting pick at +27500 for the Valero Texas Open. He explained the rationale by emphasizing that many top golfers might overlook the event as they prepare for the Masters Tournament. Sobel acknowledged Manassero's modest results this year with only five made cuts and a highest finish of T-25. However, he highlighted Manassero's excellence around the greens (ranking 1st) and strong putting (24th), suggesting these strengths could help him compete at TPC San Antonio—a course that prioritizes precision over distance. Although Manassero struggles with driving (ranking 180th), Sobel believes this week's venue plays into the Italian's skill set.

Jason Sobel advocated for betting Daniel Berger at +3300 odds to win the Valero Texas Open due to his recent impressive performance. Berger has six top-25 finishes in his last eight events, gaining strokes across every major statistical category over his past five starts excluding a minor off-the-tee dip at The Players. Sobel notes that insiders consistently view Berger as a potential major championship winner and U.S. Ryder Cup contender. He also minimized the importance of Berger's two missed cuts in previous appearances at the event, attributing it to a limited sample size from several years ago. Additionally, sitting securely at No. 44 in the Official World Golf Rankings, Berger faces no pressures tied to qualifying for the Masters Tournament next week, potentially sharpening his focus on the Texas Open.

Jason Sobel highlights Billy Horschel as a compelling outright long-shot at 170-to-1 odds, largely due to his strong local ties and success history. TPC Sawgrass is a home venue for Horschel where he regularly practices, and his coach Todd Anderson leads instruction there, reflecting significant course familiarity. Sobel emphasizes Horschel's proven winning history (eight PGA Tour titles) and stated ambition to win in his home state of Florida, providing enough upside to make the wager attractive despite recent spotty form.

Jason Sobel endorsed Hideki Matsuyama for THE PLAYERS Championship, highlighting Matsuyama’s underrated short game advantage. Matsuyama ranked first in strokes gained around the green last year and held a similar position until the previous event this season. Matsuyama has consistently top-tier results at TPC Sawgrass, including seven top-25 finishes in nine career starts and four top-10 finishes, notably in the past two seasons. Also referenced was Matsuyama's exceptional 63 shot five years prior during the COVID-shortened event, suggesting that Matsuyama may be owed some good fortune this week as an added narrative.

Despite Collin Morikawa losing a four-stroke lead late last week to Russell Henley, Jason Sobel believes Morikawa remains a strong bet at 14-1 odds. Sobel explained that Morikawa dominated for 15 holes and lost only because of Henley's unexpected hole-out. Sobel argued the narrative would be entirely different had Morikawa won, highlighting Morikawa's elite standing in strokes gained total, a critical metric for TPC Sawgrass. Additionally, Sobel noted issues with other top contenders: Scheffler is frustrated, McIlroy is tinkering equipment ahead of majors, and Schauffele is battling rust post-injury, leaving Morikawa as the best high-end pick available.

Jason Sobel strongly advised fading Michael Kim in DFS despite his great recent form simply because Kim's price is absurdly low ($6,000). Sobel indicates that Kim's cheap price at DraftKings will drive extremely high ownership across contests, remarking humorously, 'He's going to be owned by everybody.' Sobel made the strategic point that DFS tournament success frequently relies on zigging where everyone else zags, suggesting intentionally fading Kim just to gain leverage. Although Sobel fully acknowledged Kim's form and statistical profile as solid and reliable, he favors a game-theory strategy of avoiding chalky low-priced players who are likely massive public favorites and instead searching for differentiation.

Jason Sobel strongly endorsed a top-20 play on Denny McCarthy, emphasizing noticeable strides in McCarthy's ball striking game. Typically known predominantly as an elite putter, McCarthy recently stood out with strong performances at marquee events, indicating vast improvement in ball-striking metrics. Sobel specifically pointed out McCarthy playing well in four of his last events that were signature tournaments, emphasizing, 'he's made some huge strides in that part of his game.' Given McCarthy already possesses one of the best putting profiles in golf, Sobel concluded he is an excellent candidate to contend at TPC Sawgrass, warranting confidence in a top-20 bet for this event.

Jason Sobel strongly advises fading Viktor Hovland in matchups due to evident mental frustration and ongoing swing troubles. During the pro-am at Sawgrass, Hovland hit two balls in water on 17th and appeared visibly frustrated, isolating himself and spending hours grinding at the driving range afterward. Sobel categorizes Hovland as a big fade, taking Will Zalatoris over him in matchups as Zalatoris has shown signs of improved form.

Jason Sobel recommends considering Sepp Straka as a potential first-round leader bet at THE PLAYERS Championship. Sobel highlights Straka's recent hot form, particularly noting his impressive recovery at Bay Hill where, despite opening with a 76, he rallied strongly with three straight rounds in the 60s to finish inside the top five. Sobel believes Straka is carrying excellent momentum, making him an appealing sleeper pick for FRL betting markets.

Jason Sobel is bullish on Russell Henley as a first-round leader target at THE PLAYERS Championship. He noted that Henley, after recently winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational, excels at getting off to fast starts. Sobel believes Henley is a great play on Thursday, benefiting from the momentum and confidence gained after his victory. He emphasizes Henley's consistency in the opening rounds historically and believes that the pressures of closing tournaments, which Henley has openly discussed struggling with, won't be a factor in the early round scenario where he typically thrives.