Jason Sobel proposed Jordan Spieth as an excellent first-round leader betting option at +3500, highlighting Spieth's well-known volatility and immense potential for exceptional single-round scoring bursts. Spieth's statistical profile shows balanced metrics across multiple categories including approach and short game, reinforcing his consistent scoring upside. Sobel notes Spieth's tendency to make both brilliant and chaotic shots back-to-back, but believes the ceiling outweighs the risks, especially in a single-round market like first-round leader betting. Citing Spieth's unpredictability and explosive scoring ability, Sobel strongly recommended taking advantage of the Texas native's potential upside at the Valero Texas Open.

Jason Sobel recommended Ryan Fox as a conservative top-40 pick at +110 odds, drawing attention to Fox's recent physical transformation and rise in form that resulted in two top-20 finishes in his past three events. Sobel believes the Kiwi golfer, who thrived last week at the Texas Children's Houston Open, is now positioned to excel regularly on the PGA Tour after extensive international success. Sobel views the Valero Texas Open as an ideal spot where Fox can deliver another reliable top-40 finish, making him an attractive low-risk betting choice.

Jason Sobel pointed to Charley Hoffman at +320 odds as an aggressive yet appealing top-20 betting option, backed by Hoffman's extraordinary track record at the Valero Texas Open. Sobel underscored Hoffman's remarkable consistency at this tournament—17 made cuts in 18 appearances, along with 13 top-25 performances, seven top-10 finishes, three runner-up results, and one victory. Though Hoffman hasn't secured a top-20 result at the event in the last three editions, Sobel expects him to reverse this recent drought given Hoffman's known affinity and past successes at TPC San Antonio.

Jason Sobel endorsed Tommy Fleetwood as a conservative top-10 play at +275, citing strong recent performances at similar venues that prioritize ball-striking. Fleetwood recently finished T-11 at Bay Hill and followed that up with finishes of T-14 and T-16. Despite acknowledging the tendency towards floor finishes over victories, Sobel argued that the layout of TPC San Antonio perfectly matches Fleetwood's approach-centric style, suggesting safety and potential upside in betting him within the top-10 this week.

Jason Sobel identified Tom Kim at +750 as a conservative top-5 betting selection, highlighting a prime rebound opportunity due to Kim's persistently strong iron play. Kim has gained strokes on approach shots in each of his eight tournament starts this season, though these excellent iron statistics have not yet translated fully into top-tier finishes due largely to poor putting performances. Sobel sees the Valero Texas Open as a favorable spot where Kim's underlying strong approach numbers may finally produce an elite finish in a weaker-than-usual field.

Jason Sobel recommended Matteo Manassero as an aggressive outright betting pick at +27500 for the Valero Texas Open. He explained the rationale by emphasizing that many top golfers might overlook the event as they prepare for the Masters Tournament. Sobel acknowledged Manassero's modest results this year with only five made cuts and a highest finish of T-25. However, he highlighted Manassero's excellence around the greens (ranking 1st) and strong putting (24th), suggesting these strengths could help him compete at TPC San Antonio—a course that prioritizes precision over distance. Although Manassero struggles with driving (ranking 180th), Sobel believes this week's venue plays into the Italian's skill set.

Jason Sobel advocated for betting Daniel Berger at +3300 odds to win the Valero Texas Open due to his recent impressive performance. Berger has six top-25 finishes in his last eight events, gaining strokes across every major statistical category over his past five starts excluding a minor off-the-tee dip at The Players. Sobel notes that insiders consistently view Berger as a potential major championship winner and U.S. Ryder Cup contender. He also minimized the importance of Berger's two missed cuts in previous appearances at the event, attributing it to a limited sample size from several years ago. Additionally, sitting securely at No. 44 in the Official World Golf Rankings, Berger faces no pressures tied to qualifying for the Masters Tournament next week, potentially sharpening his focus on the Texas Open.

Jason Sobel highlights Billy Horschel as a compelling outright long-shot at 170-to-1 odds, largely due to his strong local ties and success history. TPC Sawgrass is a home venue for Horschel where he regularly practices, and his coach Todd Anderson leads instruction there, reflecting significant course familiarity. Sobel emphasizes Horschel's proven winning history (eight PGA Tour titles) and stated ambition to win in his home state of Florida, providing enough upside to make the wager attractive despite recent spotty form.

Jason Sobel endorsed Hideki Matsuyama for THE PLAYERS Championship, highlighting Matsuyama’s underrated short game advantage. Matsuyama ranked first in strokes gained around the green last year and held a similar position until the previous event this season. Matsuyama has consistently top-tier results at TPC Sawgrass, including seven top-25 finishes in nine career starts and four top-10 finishes, notably in the past two seasons. Also referenced was Matsuyama's exceptional 63 shot five years prior during the COVID-shortened event, suggesting that Matsuyama may be owed some good fortune this week as an added narrative.

Despite Collin Morikawa losing a four-stroke lead late last week to Russell Henley, Jason Sobel believes Morikawa remains a strong bet at 14-1 odds. Sobel explained that Morikawa dominated for 15 holes and lost only because of Henley's unexpected hole-out. Sobel argued the narrative would be entirely different had Morikawa won, highlighting Morikawa's elite standing in strokes gained total, a critical metric for TPC Sawgrass. Additionally, Sobel noted issues with other top contenders: Scheffler is frustrated, McIlroy is tinkering equipment ahead of majors, and Schauffele is battling rust post-injury, leaving Morikawa as the best high-end pick available.

Jason Sobel strongly advised fading Michael Kim in DFS despite his great recent form simply because Kim's price is absurdly low ($6,000). Sobel indicates that Kim's cheap price at DraftKings will drive extremely high ownership across contests, remarking humorously, 'He's going to be owned by everybody.' Sobel made the strategic point that DFS tournament success frequently relies on zigging where everyone else zags, suggesting intentionally fading Kim just to gain leverage. Although Sobel fully acknowledged Kim's form and statistical profile as solid and reliable, he favors a game-theory strategy of avoiding chalky low-priced players who are likely massive public favorites and instead searching for differentiation.

Jason Sobel strongly endorsed a top-20 play on Denny McCarthy, emphasizing noticeable strides in McCarthy's ball striking game. Typically known predominantly as an elite putter, McCarthy recently stood out with strong performances at marquee events, indicating vast improvement in ball-striking metrics. Sobel specifically pointed out McCarthy playing well in four of his last events that were signature tournaments, emphasizing, 'he's made some huge strides in that part of his game.' Given McCarthy already possesses one of the best putting profiles in golf, Sobel concluded he is an excellent candidate to contend at TPC Sawgrass, warranting confidence in a top-20 bet for this event.

Jason Sobel strongly advises fading Viktor Hovland in matchups due to evident mental frustration and ongoing swing troubles. During the pro-am at Sawgrass, Hovland hit two balls in water on 17th and appeared visibly frustrated, isolating himself and spending hours grinding at the driving range afterward. Sobel categorizes Hovland as a big fade, taking Will Zalatoris over him in matchups as Zalatoris has shown signs of improved form.

Jason Sobel recommends considering Sepp Straka as a potential first-round leader bet at THE PLAYERS Championship. Sobel highlights Straka's recent hot form, particularly noting his impressive recovery at Bay Hill where, despite opening with a 76, he rallied strongly with three straight rounds in the 60s to finish inside the top five. Sobel believes Straka is carrying excellent momentum, making him an appealing sleeper pick for FRL betting markets.

Jason Sobel is bullish on Russell Henley as a first-round leader target at THE PLAYERS Championship. He noted that Henley, after recently winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational, excels at getting off to fast starts. Sobel believes Henley is a great play on Thursday, benefiting from the momentum and confidence gained after his victory. He emphasizes Henley's consistency in the opening rounds historically and believes that the pressures of closing tournaments, which Henley has openly discussed struggling with, won't be a factor in the early round scenario where he typically thrives.