For an "aggressive" top-20 at +275, Sobel picks Tom Hoge, calling him a textbook course horse. While Hoge is an uncharacteristic 128th in SG: Approach but 31st in putting through a small 2026 sample, Pebble is historically perfect for him: victory in 2022 plus four top-17s in the last five years. Sobel trusts that track record to outweigh the temporary iron dip and sees plus-money value in a top-20 ticket.

Sobel’s conservative top-20 pick is Ryan Gerard at +160. Gerard finished runner-up in Mauritius late last year, opened 2026 with two more seconds, and added a T-11 at Torrey. That run makes him, in Sobel’s words, “super-confident and running hot.” Even against an elevated field, Gerard only needs to beat one quarter of the starters, a percentile Sobel says is realistic given the current form.

Sobel recommends Jason Day for a top-10 (+250) despite bettors’ recent disappointment. Day followed a co-runner-up at The AmEx with a flat T-38 at Torrey— an outcome Sobel labels recency-bias fuel. Pebble is a different story: Day has finished inside the top-20 in 12 of 15 career starts and nine of the last 10 editions. That level of course reliability, not the Torrey stumble, drives Sobel’s bullish stance.

Although he waved a mild "trap-game" warning, Sobel still prefers Justin Rose in the top-10 market at +220 rather than as an outright. Rose won this event three years ago and has followed with T-11 and T-3 finishes. He is already showing strong 2026 form, so even if public expectation is high, Sobel trusts the Englishman’s Pebble comfort to pay off a safer ticket.

Sobel’s "aggressive" top-5 play is Sepp Straka at +800. After a rusty MC while defending at The AmEx, Straka gained momentum: a 68 on La Quinta’s toughest track featured the best ball-striking numbers recorded that week, then a T-18 in Phoenix where his Saturday and Sunday iron play far outpaced his early-round stats. The Austrian was T-7 at Pebble last year after opening with back-to-back 65s. Sobel reads the improving approach data as a sign Straka is ready to contend again.

For a top-5 wager at +650, Sobel likes Daniel Berger, noting he is a "momentum player" who just vaulted to T-16 in Phoenix with a closing 65 and was T-6 at the Sony. Berger ranks 13th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach this season and actually led last week’s field in that category. Pebble is a comfort zone—he won here in 2021 and added T-5 and T-10 finishes in his only other appearances. Sobel says those past results plus current iron play justify backing him even in a signature-event field.

Calling it his "aggressive" outright, Sobel argued that Shane Lowry’s persistent high finishes make him the best buy-low in the field at +5000. Since winning the 2019 Open, Lowry has piled up close calls: three top-3s worldwide last year including at Pebble, three more top-4s the year before, and an eight-event run of top-13s. Two weeks ago he nearly won the Dubai Invitational before a bunker mishap on 18. Sobel believes the Irishman is "banging on the door" often enough that another win is imminent, and a patience lesson from friend Tommy Fleetwood reinforces that view.

Sobel added Patrick Cantlay as a second "conservative" outright because +4000 felt too long for Cantlay’s Pebble profile. The Californian owns two top-5s and three other top-11s in eight career starts here. While he missed the cut at Torrey, Cantlay opened the season with a T-13 at The American Express, firing four straight sub-70 rounds— enough early-season form to satisfy Sobel’s emphasis on recent performance in 2026.

Jason Sobel said Maverick McNealy is his primary "conservative" outright bet at +3300. McNealy owns two prior top-5s at Pebble and is coming off a T-13 in Phoenix that followed a top-10 at Torrey. Sobel loves the underlying balance: McNealy ranks 54th off-the-tee, 52nd on approach, 54th around the green and 52nd in putting, numbers that add up to a spot just outside the top-20 in total Strokes Gained. The Northern California native’s steady floor plus recent form convince Sobel the ceiling could finally show up on a course he already knows well.

For his final aggressive top-forty dart, Jason Sobel highlighted reigning U.S. Amateur champion Mason Howell. At just 18, Howell follows a wave of teenagers like Nick Dunlap and Luke Clanton who have shown amateurs can contend immediately under little financial pressure. Sobel advised a conservative top-40 ticket but encouraged bettors to ladder Howell up to a top-five if seeking a true home-run payout, banking on pure talent and carefree swagger.

Jason Sobel suggested taking a yet-to-be-posted top-forty price on Doc Redman. The 2017 U.S. Amateur champ slumped to 138th on the Korn Ferry points list but has reignited this fall with a T-9 at Sanderson Farms and T-20 at the Bank of Utah. Playing on a sponsor exemption, Redman carries recent momentum and long-term pedigree that Sobel still trusts despite an otherwise disappointing season.

Jason Sobel’s aggressive top-twenty pick is Carson Young at +400. Young finished T-6 three weeks ago at the World Wide Technology Championship, thrives on Bermuda greens, and relies on accuracy more than power—traits that tend to play well at Sea Island’s shorter layouts. While his ultimate ceiling at the highest level remains unclear, Sobel believes Young’s solid floor and course fit create value at this number.

Jason Sobel labeled Chris Kirk a textbook conservative top-twenty wager at +160. The 2013 Sea Island champion closed the regular season with five top-15 finishes in seven starts and has recorded six career top-twenties at this event. Though Kirk has not played since August, Sobel argued short-priced, low-volatility positions like this are essential to a steady golf betting ROI, even if they lack the Sunday sweat of longshots.

Jason Sobel also endorsed Eric Cole for a top-ten at +450, noting Cole’s trademark heavy schedule means he arrives in competitive rhythm. The 36-year-old has logged two top-tens in his last four starts and finished T-3 and T-15 at the RSM the past two seasons. Sobel views Cole’s blend of recent form and proven Sea Island track record as undervalued at this price.

For an aggressive top-ten at +400, Jason Sobel cited Bud Cauley’s reliable course fit. Although Cauley has played only once this fall, he owns one career top-ten plus three additional top-25s at the RSM. Sobel described Cauley as the higher-floor option among his two aggressive picks, trusting the veteran’s comfort at Sea Island to offset limited recent reps.

Jason Sobel slotted Denny McCarthy into the conservative top-ten market at +300. McCarthy has not teed it up since the BMW Championship in mid-August, a layoff that kept Sobel off the outright number, yet the 36-hole friendly Seaside and Plantation courses play to McCarthy’s precision game. He owns three top-tens in his last six RSM starts and added a T-25 here last year. Sobel framed the bet as a way to capture McCarthy’s typical Sea Island success without overpaying for a win on a player who has been idle for three months.

Jason Sobel recommended a top-five wager on Pierceson Coody at +750 after highlighting that Coody currently leads the Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee (with Scottie Scheffler second and Rory McIlroy fourth) despite only recently logging enough rounds to qualify. Coody also sits 18th in SG: Total and has finished 31st or better in seven of his last ten starts, recording two third-place results. Sobel expects his approach and putting numbers to improve once he gains full status next season but thinks the 25-year-old’s all-around game is already good enough to crack the top five this week even if the Sea Island layout mutes raw driving distance.

Jason Sobel targeted Jacob Bridgeman at +6600 as an aggressive outright. Bridgeman ranks 18th on Tour in SG: Putting and, as a South Carolina native, tends to spike even higher on Bermuda greens—evidenced by top-three finishes earlier this year at PGA National and Innisbrook. Like Smalley, he owns his 2026 status and has stayed sharp with multiple fall starts. Although Bridgeman missed the cut in his lone RSM appearance, Sobel believes his combination of current form and surface-specific putting upside makes him live to win if the flatstick heats up.

Jason Sobel said Alex Smalley is his preferred conservative outright play at +4000. Smalley will be making his sixth fall start, giving him competitive reps while many big names arrive rusty. Over his last 14 starts he has seven missed cuts but four finishes of 13th or better, including two top-fives in his past three events, a boom-or-bust profile Sobel loves for outright tickets. He posted a T-5 at Sea Island three years ago, sits 71st in FedEx points with his 2026 card secured, and therefore carries motivation without crippling pressure—exactly the combination that produced the last two RSM winners. Sobel conceded Smalley could miss the cut but argued the 29-year-old’s ceiling is high enough to cash on a week when many favorites may still be in offseason mode.

For bettors who prefer the wildcard subset, Sobel also endorsed Hovland at +375 to be Europe’s highest-scoring captain’s pick. He views the shorter number as acceptable given the Norwegian’s all-session usage in 2021 and 2023 and his likely pairing continuity with Aberg. The recommendation is effectively a lighter alternative to his +900 overall-points position.

At +500 to be top U.S. wildcard, Sobel singled out Cameron Young. The Wake Forest alum has five straight finishes of 11th or better, grabbed his first PGA win at Wyndham, and owns extensive reps on Bethpage Black. Sobel expects Bradley to pair the bomber with Bryson DeChambeau in four-balls, forecasting a birdie barrage that could earn Young extra starts. Early success, a home-state crowd and red-hot form give him the clearest path to the most matches among the six picks.

Sobel likes Viktor Hovland at +900 to top Europe in points. Every Euro points champion over the last four cups played all five matches, and Hovland hasn’t missed a session in two appearances. With stats-driven assistant Edoardo Molinari helping Luke Donald and Bethpage rewarding elite long-iron play, Sobel expects Hovland to reprise his 2023 chemistry with Ludvig Aberg and eclipse shorter-priced Rory (+350) and Rahm (+500).

Sobel advised betting Scottie Scheffler at +300 to be top U.S. point scorer and +550 to top the entire event, sprinkling +1600 on a perfect 5–0–0 week. He argues the world No. 1 is the only American all but locked to play five sessions, so bettors get volume plus peak form. He notes Dustin Johnson went 5-0 in 2021 and believes Scheffler, fresh off winning the Procore Championship at +225 against 143 players, is better positioned to replicate that feat. If Scheffler bags five points, the remaining team would need just 9.5 of 23 to hit the 14.5-point cup-winning threshold—a path Sobel says is entirely realistic.

Jason Sobel advised locking in Scottie Scheffler at +180 to win the Tour Championship/FedEx Cup right now rather than waiting for tournament week. At the moment, Scheffler only needs to overtake one player on the points list instead of beating 29 players once play begins. Sobel added that he doubts Ludwig Aberg or Robert MacIntyre will erase Scheffler’s cushion before East Lake, so bettors are essentially paying the same +180 price for a much simpler ask. If Scheffler enters the finale only four shots back, the number almost certainly shortens, making the current price the better expected-value play.

Jason Sobel recommended taking a shot on Sam Burns in the outright and “without” markets for the Tour Championship. Sobel compared the event to a first-round-leader bet—volatile and rewarding players who can catch fire—and argued Burns is tailor-made for that environment. The LSU product is solid enough tee-to-green to handle East Lake’s ball-striking demands, yet owns one of the streakiest putters on TOUR, capable of pouring in birdies if the PGA sets the course up easier, as Sobel expects. Burns has not won all season, but Sobel believes his ceiling is high enough to steal the FedEx Cup in a 30-player field if he posts one of his trademark “roll-everything-in” weeks.

Hall is Sobel’s aggressive FRL flyer at +4000. The Englishman just climbed to No. 1 in Strokes Gained: Putting and has broken 70 in 17 of 22 opening rounds this season, including 10 of his last 11, ranking fifth in R1 scoring average. Sobel loves targeting elite putters who ‘go nuclear’ on the greens and says Hall’s attack-from-hole-one mentality makes him the ideal Thursday splash play at a juicy number.

For first-round leader, Sobel likes Justin Thomas at +2800 precisely because his Thursday outcomes swing wildly. The same player who opened the RBC Heritage with a 61 has also carded an 80 at the Memorial and 78 at The Players. Southwind ceiling exists—Thomas has begun this event with 67 in two separate years—and FRL bets prioritize spike rounds over consistency. Sobel embraces the volatility, believing Thomas’ elite iron play can flash early before any putting woes creep in.

Sobel’s aggressive top-20 is Daniel Berger at +125. Berger opened 2025 with ten top-30s in his first twelve starts but has slumped outside the top-30 for seven straight. Southwind is his personal playground—back-to-back victories here in 2016 and 2017—and he enters 30th in FedEx Cup points, needing a good week to secure a Tour Championship berth. Sobel thinks familiar sightlines and positive memories can ignite a form rebound that comfortably lands inside the top-20.

Sobel’s conservative top-20 pick is Jake Knapp at +175. Before a missed cut at Wyndham, Knapp rattled off five straight top-30s, two inside the top-5, powered by a lethal driver-and-putter profile. Sobel likes that the early exit in Greensboro gave Knapp a rare weekend to rest after a packed summer schedule. In a 69-man field, finishing 20th means beating only 71% of entrants, so Sobel sees value despite course fit concerns with Knapp’s irons.

For an aggressive top-10 play at +500, Sobel chose Chris Kirk. Kirk vaulted from 73rd to 61st in FedEx Cup points with a T-5 last week, proving the six-time winner still heats up quickly. Though he finished 16th and 50th here the last two years, he owns four rounds of 67 or better across those eight loops, evidence he can fire low numbers at Southwind when the putter cooperates.

Russell Henley mirrors Fleetwood in Sobel’s eyes—elite iron play, steady floor, and a recent Southwind top-10—so he advocates a separate or parlayed top-10 at +200. Henley’s precise approach game mitigates Southwind’s water-guarded greens, giving him multiple paths to another high finish.

Sobel labeled Tommy Fleetwood a "world-class ball-striker with an unequivocally high floor" and recommended a conservative top-10 at +175. Fleetwood owns a top-10 at Southwind within the last two years and rarely loses strokes tee-to-green, making him a dependable anchor play in a limited 69-man field.

Sobel’s aggressive top-5 stab is Harris English at +650. The 36-year-old has already won the Farmers Insurance Open, finished solo second at both the PGA Championship and The Open, and grabbed T-4 at the Travelers—form that has him on the inside of the Ryder Cup discussion. English won on this exact course in 2013 and Sobel believes those good vibes will offset lackluster results here the past two seasons. Given the six-week heater and proven Southwind pedigree, Sobel sees +650 as value.

For a conservative top-5 ticket, Sobel backed Patrick Cantlay at +500. Cantlay ranks 12th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 11th in SG: Total this season, gaining on approach in 12 of his last 14 starts. The two poor weeks were both majors, skewing his results and masking elite ball-striking. Southwind suits him: he lost a playoff here two years ago and finished T-12 last year. Sitting 14th in U.S. Ryder Cup points, Cantlay badly needs a statement finish; Sobel expects iron-play regression to the mean and thinks a top-5 cashes at +500.

Sobel’s aggressive outright dart is Cameron Young at +4000. Young snapped a four-year victory drought by winning in Greensboro and Sobel drew a parallel to Lucas Glover’s 2023 Greensboro/Memphis back-to-back, arguing Young owns far more win equity than Glover did. Motivation is high with a potential Ryder Cup berth in his home state of New York on the line, and Young credited renewed chemistry with former Wake Forest teammate–turned-caddie Kyle Sterbinsky for the hot run. Sobel believes Young will keep the gas pedal down while his tee-to-green game is peaking, making +4000 too long.

Jason Sobel said Sam Burns is his conservative outright play at +3300 because TPC Southwind is a 125-175-yard wedge contest where strong putting separates contenders. Burns ranked second in the field in putting here last year, trailing only winner Hideki Matsuyama, and parlayed that to a T-5. Sobel noted Burns’ nickname, “Bermuda Burns,” to emphasize how comfortable he is on these greens. Although Burns has logged three straight finishes outside the top-40 since contending at both the RBC Canadian Open and U.S. Open, Sobel compared the skid to Cameron Young’s pre-Greensboro slump and expects similar bounce-back potential. He called +3300 a fair number in a week where many outright prices feel too short.

Jason Sobel highlighted Akshay Bhatia as an early target for Wyndham as long as Bhatia does not win the 3M Open. Sobel said a confidence-boosting top-five would carry form into Sedgefield without the emotional drain or price inflation that comes with a victory. Bhatia's precise irons and comfort on Bermuda greens match the “accuracy over distance” prototype needed at this par-70. If Bhatia does grab the 3M trophy, Sobel will likely downgrade him next week.

Jason Sobel advised passing on Ben Griffin in outright markets even though Sedgefield suits his accurate, birdie-making game. Griffin already owns two PGA Tour wins this season and Sobel argued the "law of averages" makes a third victory in the same year unlikely, especially at short odds. Sobel still expects Griffin to play well and could consider him for DFS or finishing-position props, but he will look elsewhere for his outright tickets.

Jason Sobel said he will once again click Denny McCarthy for both outrights and DFS at Sedgefield. The course is only 7,100 yards, a par-70 that historically turns into a 18–20-under birdie-fest and demands accuracy plus a hot putter – the exact profile McCarthy brings. Sobel has rostered McCarthy here five straight years and believes “at some point Denny McCarthy wins a golf tournament,” expecting that first win to come on a Bermuda-green layout where rolling in putts is mandatory.

Jason Sobel told viewers he is "all out on Tony Finau" this week despite Finau’s 2022 victory at TPC Twin Cities. Sobel originally planned to use Finau as his one-and-done pick but scrapped the idea after digging into the numbers: Finau has been hemorrhaging strokes off the tee for the past month, ranking near the bottom of the field in SG:OTT and routinely missing fairways—an issue Sobel emphasized is fatal on a layout with water in play on 15 holes. He recalled watching Finau freefall 42 spots on a single leaderboard last Friday, evidence that the driver problems are leading to sudden blow-ups. With TPC Twin Cities rewarding aggressive yet accurate ball-striking, Sobel sees no reason to pay a mid-tier outright price or include Finau in DFS builds until the big stick rebounds. Patrick McDonald echoed the sentiment, saying he was "good not having any exposure," but Sobel drove the point home: Finau is a full fade in every betting market this week.

Jason Sobel grabbed Will Gordon at a massive 250-1 after back-to-back finishes of 23rd and 14th kept his card alive. Sobel reminded listeners that Gordon only remained eligible because Michael Kim three-putted to miss the John Deere cut, underscoring the Texan’s new-lease-on-life motivation. Despite missing the cut in all four prior 3M starts, Sobel trusts the uptick in form and notes Gordon’s power should play on a course yielding five long-shot winners in six years. The price bakes in the ugly course history, but Sobel says a hot driver plus renewed confidence makes him the kind of deep dart that pays off at TPC Twin Cities.

Sobel sprinkled Erik Van Rooyen at 90-1 despite awful course history (three missed cuts and a finish outside the top-50). The angle is pure momentum plus Minnesota mojo: Van Rooyen attended the University of Minnesota, his wife’s entire family will be on-site, and he’s fresh off a runner-up at the Barracuda where he closed Eagle-Birdie. Sobel noted EVR is a classic streak player—when the putter heats up he can rip off weeks of elite golf—and thinks the emotional boost of a pseudo-home game could unlock another ceiling performance in a weak field where longshots regularly win.

Jason Sobel is back on Wyndham Clark as an outright in the mid-20s because the talent finally looks synced with results again. Clark bottomed out earlier this summer—publicly smashing lockers and chucking a driver—but the emotional release seems to have worked. Since returning from Europe he’s posted 11th and 4th-place finishes, gaining strokes in every major category. Sobel compared the bounce-back to recent ‘rock-bottom then win’ runs from Viktor Hovland and Matt Fitzpatrick and believes books are slow to adjust; Clark is priced longer than Burns and McNeely despite an equal ceiling. On a course where distance sets up scoring chances, Sobel thinks Clark’s power plus renewed confidence is a perfect fit.

Sobel wagered on Adam Svensson +300 for a top-20, citing elite strokes-gained off-the-tee numbers. Svensson ranked 16th off the tee at Royal Troon and third tee-to-green, closing with 66. He sits 10th on Tour in SG:OTT for the season, a key stat with TPC Twin Cities’ penal water hazards. Sobel believes the Canadian is one of the most underrated drivers on Tour and that his current ball-striking surge carries over to Minnesota, making the 3-1 price attractive.

Jason Sobel went back to Max Greyserman for a top-10 after the Rutgers product finished runner-up here last year and historically heats up in late summer. Sobel noted Greyserman’s ability to repeat form on the same tracks—he caught fire at this point of the calendar in 2023 and has already flashed upside again this month. In a field light on elite talent, Sobel wants to bank on one of the few players he considers 'really good' and suggested even climbing the ladder to top-5/Win if bettors prefer a higher payout.

Sobel is taking Kevin Yu at even money in a tournament H2H versus Sungjae Im. Im’s approach play has cratered—five missed cuts in his last seven starts—while Yu’s tee-to-green numbers are trending up. Add Yu’s length advantage at TPC Twin Cities and Sobel is happy to fade a cold Sungjae until the Korean star shows signs of life.

Jason Sobel grabbed Taylor Pendrith at +140 to be top Canadian. With only four countrymen in the field—Adam Svensson, Adam Hadwin, Mackenzie Hughes, and Ben Silverman—Sobel thinks Pendrith’s driver-heavy profile and pre-trip form make him a strong favorite on a course that historically rewards distance. The limited competition makes the plus-money price stand out.

Sobel also recommends Cameron Champ for First-Round Leader (60-plus-to-1). Champ opened last week’s Barracuda in second place before imploding Friday—proof of his one-round ceiling. TPC Twin Cities rewards his elite length, and Sobel prefers isolating that upside on Thursday rather than trusting Champ’s shaky accuracy and putter for 72 holes.