Javan Shouey recommended taking the over of 5.5 strikeouts for Spencer Strider in his first MLB start back from an elbow injury. Strider initially made an impact with impressive strikeout totals including 202 strikeouts in just 131.2 innings in 2022, and he significantly increased that total to 281 strikeouts across 186.2 innings in 2023 before getting injured. Following surgery to repair his UCL (internal brace procedure), his rehab starts have gone smoothly, totaling 27 strikeouts in just 13.2 innings with only 10 base runners allowed. Strider managed 90 pitches in his final rehab outing, indicating he's ready for close to a full workload. Despite a challenging matchup against the Blue Jays, a team not usually targeted for strikeouts, Strider's expected 33% K rate for the season coupled with limited previous exposure of Toronto hitters against him—only 14 plate appearances—makes this bet appealing even at -150 odds.

Javan Shouey favored the under 4.5 strikeouts props for Luis Ortiz against the Royals. Ortiz, now with the Guardians following an offseason trade, has historically struggled with strikeouts, evidenced by a modest career 17.5% strikeout rate across 249 MLB innings. Despite averaging a strong 95.6 MPH fastball speed, his whiff rate this season (23.0%) and strikeout rate (9.8%) remain low. Shouey highlighted that the Royals strike out at just a 20.2% rate against right-handers this year and possess the league’s third-best contact rate outside the zone, fourth-best inside-zone contact rate, and third-lowest overall swinging strike rate (9.7%). Given these factors and recent form, Shouey confidently advised playing the under on Ortiz's strikeouts down to -145.

Javan Shouey recommended betting under 1.5 walks for Sandy Alcantara in his upcoming start against the Nationals. Alcantara, the 2022 NL Cy Young winner, showed elite control historically with walk rates of 6.3%, 5.6%, and 6.0% in his past three healthy seasons and is projected near 6% again this year. Despite issuing 4 walks against the Pirates in his first outing this year after missing the 2024 season due to injury, Alcantara bounced back strongly with 0 walks over 5 innings against the Mets, maintaining a 54.3% zone rate. Shouey emphasized that the Nationals, while mid-league in walk rate (9.9%), align poorly against Alcantara's control-oriented pitching approach, given their third-highest chase rate and surprisingly low swing rate on strikes, predicting Alcantara will consistently pound the zone and keep walks under control.