Canale bet Amon-Ra St. Brown over 6.5 receptions at -120. After nine catches last week, the Lions’ top target now faces Marlon Humphrey in the slot—Humphrey’s 55.7 PFF coverage grade ranks 65th among corners with 30-plus snaps this year. St. Brown lines up inside on 53.5% of routes, and the author expects Detroit to pepper him against that soft matchup for at least seven grabs.

Jay Canale took Jared Goff over 1.5 passing TDs at -118. Goff’s Week 2 explosion (334 yards, five scores against Chicago) eased concerns after a shaky opener. Baltimore’s defense is shorthanded: All-Pro DT Justin Madubuike is out, and corners Nate Wiggins and Marlon Humphrey are expected to play through groin injuries. Combined with the Ravens’ linebacker coverage issues, Canale believes Goff will find the end zone at least twice.

Canale played Jahmyr Gibbs over 85.5 total yards at -110. While Detroit’s rushing workload often swings between Gibbs and David Montgomery, Gibbs’ passing-game role never disappears. Baltimore has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to running backs in 2025 after ranking fourth-worst in 2024, a trend the author expects to continue. Given Gibbs’ explosive play rate and likely target volume, Canale projects enough combined rushing and receiving production to top the number.

Jay Canale recommended betting Derrick Henry as an Anytime TD scorer at -225. Despite last week’s quiet 23-yard, scoreless outing, Canale stressed that Henry is still Baltimore’s unquestioned goal-line hammer, converting 13 of his 16 touchdowns inside the red zone a season ago. Expecting multiple short-yardage chances in a projected high-scoring game, he likes Henry’s historical red-zone efficiency to cash the prop.

Jay Canale took Over 52.5 rushing yards on De'Von Achane at -118. Achane has topped this number in all four career meetings with Buffalo and has opened 2025 with 72 and 122 total yards despite the Dolphins’ offensive struggles. The Bills will be without Pro Bowl defenders Ed Oliver and Matt Milano, a duo that anchors their run front. Canale expects those absences to create wider lanes, allowing Achane to remain the lone bright spot and sail past the mid-50s threshold.

Jay Canale said the +120 line on Josh Allen clearing 250 passing yards is a bargain. He pointed out that Miami just surrendered 272 yards to Daniel Jones and 230 yards on an 82.6% completion rate to Drake Maye. Pro Football Focus grades the Dolphins as the fifth-worst coverage unit and the single worst pass-rush group this season. With Buffalo laying 12.5 points and Allen nursing a nose injury that should limit designed runs, Canale expects the Bills to keep their quarterback clean in the pocket and let him pick apart a porous secondary en route to another 250-plus yard outing.

Jay Canale played Over 3.5 receptions on Khalil Shakir at -165. Shakir’s slow start stemmed from a high-ankle sprain that erased most of training camp, not a performance decline. When at full speed he is Josh Allen’s most trusted safety valve, and Miami’s secondary is down multiple starters. With the line depressed by early-season box scores, Canale expects Shakir to reclaim his usual slot role and haul in at least four balls on Thursday night.

Jay Canale endorsed James Cook at -165 to score, calling it as close to a sure thing as betting gets. Cook has found the end zone in 16 of his last 21 games, and Miami’s run defense sits squarely in the middle of the league by most metrics. With Josh Allen’s nose still healing, the staff is expected to funnel short-yardage carries to Cook instead of risking quarterback sneaks. Buffalo’s 12.5-point favorite status implies multiple red-zone trips, giving Cook ample chances to punch one in.