Although the model prefers Boston straight up, Jay Croucher noted that Chicago at +1.5 runs still grades out as a small edge because of Martin Perez’s ability to keep games tight. The veteran lefty owns a 1.59 ERA through two starts and limited Boston to 2 earned over 4.2 innings last Saturday despite four free passes. Boston’s lineup has been merely league‑average against southpaws (101 wRC+) and Fenway’s spacious left‑center gap suppresses power from right‑handed bats, helping Perez’s pitch‑to‑contact style. With a projected 4.6‑4.3 final score, Croucher took the White Sox on the run line at +1.5 laying roughly ‑110, expecting Perez to grind five innings and hand it to a bullpen that kept Boston scoreless over the final four frames in last week’s meeting.

Jay Croucher said his NBC Sports model shows value on the Red Sox moneyline Friday at Fenway. Boston is rested after an off‑day and has won four of its last six, including a series win over Tampa. Rookie right‑hander Richard Fitts held this very White Sox lineup scoreless over 5 innings in Chicago six days ago and carries a solid 3.18 ERA. Chicago, meanwhile, has dropped four straight, scoring just four combined runs during that span and getting shut out 8‑0 by Oakland yesterday. The Sox have failed to cover the run line in those four losses and their offense owns a .593 OPS versus right‑handed pitching, second‑worst in baseball. With the model making Boston a ‑175 favorite against a market number hovering around ‑150, Croucher is betting the Red Sox moneyline.