Jay Croucher recommended playing Zack Wheeler’s strikeout prop to the over (projected 6.5 Ks). Wheeler has fanned at least six hitters in six consecutive outings and is coming off a six-strikeout, six-shutout-inning performance against Pittsburgh. Facing an Athletics lineup stuck in a nine-game skid and now missing everyday third baseman Gio Urshela, Croucher expects Wheeler’s swing-and-miss stuff to play for 7-9 punch-outs while the Phillies look to push their win streak to eight.

Jay Croucher backed the Phillies on both the moneyline (-181) and the -1.5 run line for Friday’s tilt in Sacramento. He pointed to Philadelphia’s seven-game overall winning streak and the fact they have covered the run line in six straight. Zack Wheeler brings a 5-1 record, 2.67 ERA and a six-start streak of 6+ strikeouts, while Oakland counters with Jeffrey Springs (3.91 ERA) and a bullpen that just blew back-to-back late leads during a nine-game losing skid. Croucher added that the Phillies have already won three straight in this ballpark and Oakland will be without Gio Urshela (hamstring). Even though the total has gone under in 14 of Philadelphia’s 24 road games, he expects the superior starter and the red-hot lineup to extend the streak and cover the run line at plus odds.

Croucher recommended betting the game total over 8.0, hinging on the expectation that an unsharp Clayton Kershaw pushes this toward a slugfest. The left-hander’s velo was down 1.6 mph and he generated only three swinging strikes in his first start back from multiple shoulder and elbow procedures. Meanwhile Freddie Freeman is on a torrid 31-for-75 (.413) run in May and faces a right-handed fly-ball pitcher in Canning who owns a 42% hard-hit rate. Even with Juan Soto scuffling, Croucher pointed out that New York ranks top-10 in MLB in walk rate, a problem for a dodgy Kershaw who issued three free passes last outing. Weather models show a 9 mph breeze out to right, adding roughly 4% to home-run probability. Despite the Dodgers being 4-1 to the under in their last five versus NL opponents, the projection model spits out 8.7 runs, giving a full three-quarters of a run worth of value on the over.

Jay Croucher said the best way to attack Friday’s NLCS-rematch is to take the Mets on the +1.5 run line. His reasoning started with the pitching mismatch: Griffin Canning is 5-1 with a 2.47 ERA and just held the Yankees to 2 ER over 5.1 innings, while Clayton Kershaw looked nowhere near vintage form in his season debut (11.25 ERA after surrendering 5 ER in 4 IP to the Angels). Croucher noted that the Dodgers have won 19 of 30 following a win, but the +1.5 cushion neutralizes that trend, especially with New York’s pen rested after a Thursday off-day. The model the NBC Sports Bet staff runs made the Mets a slight favorite on a neutral field, giving the +1.5 a 5% edge over fair price. Citi Field’s neutral run-scoring environment and the Mets’ above-average defensive efficiency also factor into the play.

Jay Croucher said the model’s strongest edge for Friday’s game at PNC Park is on the Under 9.0 runs. He pointed to a perfect storm of recent trends and matchup data: the Braves have cashed the Under in eight of their last ten contests while averaging just 3.4 runs in that span; Pittsburgh’s offense is ice-cold, riding a seven-game losing streak during which they have scored only 2.1 runs per game and collected just four hits in their most recent outing. Star outfielder Bryan Reynolds is mired in a 4-for-28 (.143) funk, further dragging the Pirates’ run production. Croucher added that both starters showed signs of competence their last time out—Bryce Elder limited the Dodgers to two earned over five frames and Bailey Falter surrendered just one earned over seven versus San Diego—suggesting neither club is likely to jump out to a crooked number early. With PNC Park’s pitcher-friendly dimensions and winds projected to blow in, Croucher graded the Under a full run better than the market and labeled it the staff’s preferred wager.

Jay Croucher explained why the NBC Sports projection shows value on Pittsburgh +1.5 runs at home despite the Pirates’ ugly seven-game skid. The Braves have played in tight, low-scoring affairs all month—only two of their last ten games have been decided by more than one run—making it difficult to cover a run-line premium. Atlanta starter Bryce Elder owns a 5.06 ERA and has allowed a 43% hard-hit rate, giving the Pirates a path to scrape across enough offense to stay within striking distance. On the other side, left-hander Bailey Falter also carries a 5.06 ERA but is coming off his best outing of the season (7 IP, 1 ER, 2 H vs. Padres) and now faces a Braves lineup that ranks bottom-10 against southpaws in wRC+. Croucher noted that if the game script follows his model’s median projection of 4.3–4.1 in Atlanta’s favor, grabbing the extra run and a half with the home dog is worth the juice, assigning it a medium-confidence grade.

Jay Croucher recommended taking the over 10.0 runs when the Yankees visit the Athletics. Both starters are vulnerable — Will Warren owns a 5.65 ERA and failed to complete five innings his last time out, while Osvaldo Bido sports a 4.71 ERA and lasted only five frames in Miami. Because neither goes deep, Croucher expects early exposure to average bullpens that will be traveling or coming off consecutive losses (in Oakland’s case). Yankees totals have leaned under overall (16-19-2 O/U), but Croucher believes the move to hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park plus a rested New York lineup ready to bounce back after an off day creates prime conditions for regression. With Jacob Wilson going 4-for-5 on Wednesday and Oakland scoring five or more in four of its last six, Croucher’s projection spits out 11+ combined runs, making the current 10.0 number a playable over.

Jay Croucher advised laying the -1.5 run line with the Yankees in Friday’s opener at Sacramento. He highlighted the pitching mismatch, pointing out that rookie Will Warren’s 8-strikeout outing against Tampa shows trending swing-and-miss stuff even though his season ERA sits at 5.65, while Osvaldo Bido brings a 4.71 ERA and has surrendered 4 earned runs in back-to-back starts. Croucher also trusts New York’s rested offense: Aaron Judge had reached base in 31 straight games before Wednesday and Ben Rice already owns four doubles in six May contests. Oakland is just 20-18 on the run line despite its solid record and has dropped two straight to Seattle. With the NBC model projecting a 2-plus-run victory, Croucher prefers the -1.5 price to the -142 moneyline.

Jay Croucher said his NBC Sports Bet model shows value on the Yankees at the current -147 price. He pointed out that New York has won each of Carlos Rodon's last three starts and that Aaron Judge comes in swinging a hot bat after a 5-for-13 weekend versus Tampa. While Rodon’s 4.94 ERA over his past five outings looks shaky, Croucher noted that two of those starts came in Camden Yards and Fenway— parks that inflate runs— whereas Yankee Stadium is playing neutral so far this season. The Padres enter on a five-game winning streak, but Croucher expects some travel-day regression from a club that scored only four total runs in its last two games in pitcher-friendly PNC Park. With Nick Pivetta coming off a 5.1-inning, 3-run effort and regression likely against a lineup that leads the AL in hard-hit rate, the model makes New York -165, creating a playable edge on the listed moneyline.

Croucher’s projection spits out 7.6 runs for Thursday’s matinee at PNC Park, giving a full 0.6-run cushion against the listed total of 7.0. While both starters are in good form (Skenes 0 ER over 6.1 IP in Los Angeles; Rea 0.96 season ERA), the model flags three reasons to lean Over: (1) temperatures in the low-70s with a 9-mph breeze out to left increase run expectancy by roughly 6%, (2) the Cubs bullpen has the fourth-worst FIP (4.74) in baseball over the last two weeks, and (3) Pittsburgh’s lineup has quietly posted a .334 OBP at home. The Over is 4-0-1 in Chicago’s last five vs. NL Central opponents, and Croucher believes late-inning volatility plus favorable weather makes 7.0 too low.

Jay Croucher said his Rotoworld/ NBC Sports model makes the Cubs only a slight underdog in Pittsburgh, so taking Chicago at +1.5 runs (-130 range) carries the highest edge on the board. The model bakes in four recent trends: (1) the Cubs have won four of their last five road games against sub-.500 teams, (2) Paul Skenes is striking out a batter an inning but the Pirates bullpen owns a 4.78 ERA, (3) Colin Rea has allowed just one earned run over his last 9.2 innings and logged 7 K in his most recent start, and (4) Pittsburgh is just 3-6 in one-run games. Croucher likes the insurance of the extra run with a Chicago offense that ranks 6th in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching and faces a Pirates club sitting five games under .500.

Jay Croucher recommended playing the game total over 7.0 at Citi Field. His rationale combined Zac Gallen’s 5.57 ERA and recent five-inning ceiling with New York’s inability to keep games low-scoring when Senga exits. Arizona just tagged the Mets’ relief corps for four late runs on Wednesday, while New York has plated at least four in each of Senga’s home starts. Croucher’s projection model spit out 7.6 expected runs, giving bettors a half-run cushion on the posted total.

Jay Croucher backed the Mets on the -152 moneyline, citing Kodai Senga’s ace-level start to 2025. Senga owns a 1.26 ERA and 0.98 WHIP through four outings and New York has won each of his last three Citi Field starts, returning a 1.0-unit profit on the run line in those games. Croucher contrasted that with Zac Gallen’s rough opening month (1-4, 5.57 ERA) and noted Gallen has averaged only five innings per appearance, exposing an Arizona bullpen that was forced to cover three frames on Wednesday. With the Mets’ model projecting a steeper -165 true price, Croucher judged the current -152 number as actionable value.

Croucher also endorsed the game total Over 9. He cited the Dodgers’ offensive surge (OVER 4-0 in their last four, capped by Tuesday’s 15-spot) and Cal Quantrill’s bloated 7.83 ERA as primary drivers. On the other side, Tony Gonsolin makes his first MLB appearance since August 2023 following arm surgery, introducing rust concerns that could lead to early traffic before the bullpen takes over. Day-game weather at hitter-friendly Dodger Stadium (temperatures projected mid-70s with a light breeze out to left) further boosts run expectancy. With both bullpens already heavily used in the series and L.A. posting a 59% OVER rate in home games versus right-handed starters since last season, Croucher’s model projects 10.3 combined runs and flags the Over as the best total angle.

Croucher advised bettors to play the Dodgers -1.5 after the club covered that margin in each of the last four games. The handicap leans on the same mismatch that favors the moneyline: Miami’s slumping offense against a Dodgers lineup averaging 8.3 runs during the win streak. With Quantrill’s 1.79 WHIP and shaky command (zero walks last start but 10 free passes in his previous 15 innings) and a Marlins bullpen that was forced to soak up 5.2 innings Tuesday, Croucher expects Los Angeles to build a multi-run cushion. He added that the Dodgers have cashed the run line at a 67% clip (14-7) when favored by -180 or more since Opening Day 2024, making the -1.5 an attractive alternative to the steep moneyline.

Jay Croucher recommended laying the juice with the Dodgers at ‑295, noting multiple edges that still make the favorite playable despite the hefty price. Los Angeles is riding a four-game winning streak and has already taken the first two games of this set, including Tuesday’s 15-2 demolition in which Shohei Ohtani homered on the first pitch he saw and Teoscar Hernandez went 4-for-5 with four RBI. Miami counters with Cal Quantrill, who owns a 7.83 ERA and just allowed 4 ER over 5.2 IP in Seattle, while the Dodgers get a jolt from Tony Gonsolin’s return. Croucher pointed out that the Marlins have dropped four straight and the model gives L.A. a clear win probability edge even at the inflated number.

Jay Croucher’s third edge from the NBC Sports Bet model is on the game total, recommending over 9.0 runs. He cited divisional trend data that shows the OVER is 6-2-1 in Nationals NL East matchups this season, and pointed to the shaky middle-relief units both clubs showed in Sunday’s 8-7 slugfest. While Griffin Canning (3.12 ERA) vs Trevor Williams (5.11 ERA) appears lopsided, Croucher reminded bettors that Canning has allowed seven hits in back-to-back outings and rarely works past the sixth inning, exposing a Mets bullpen that just surrendered seven late runs. On the Nationals side, Williams has given up a .276 opponents’ average and owns just an 18% strikeout rate, leaving plenty of ball-in-play risk against a Mets lineup ranked top-10 in OPS. The model projects 9.6 runs—enough to clear the posted number with room to spare.

Jay Croucher recommended backing the Mets on the moneyline at -158 after the NBC Sports Bet model showed a small but playable edge. Croucher pointed to several matchup factors that favor New York: Griffin Canning enters with a 3–1 record and 3.12 ERA, while Washington counters with Trevor Williams’ 5.11 ERA. New York is 19-9 overall and has won 6 of its last 7 road games that followed a defeat, suggesting yesterday’s blown seven-run lead is unlikely to spark a skid. The Nationals have still taken two of three in the series, but Croucher noted their 13-15 record and the Mets’ 15-13 mark on the run line as additional indicators of New York’s overall edge. Implied win probability at -158 (≈61%) was below the model’s 64% projection, giving bettors roughly a 3-point cushion.

Although the model makes the Mets a moneyline play, Jay Croucher explained why it simultaneously leans toward the Nationals +1.5 runs at home. Washington has covered the run line in two of the first three games of the series and just erased a seven-run deficit, showcasing a bullpen that can keep games tight late. New York is only 15-13 on the run line despite its strong overall record, indicating a tendency to win close rather than blow teams out. Trevor Williams’ last start (5 IP, 1 ER vs Baltimore) was solid enough to give Croucher confidence he can limit early damage, while Nationals games have gone 6-1-1 to the UNDER over their last eight—another sign they frequently stay inside low-scoring margins. With the +1.5 priced at modest juice, the model sees enough cushion to justify a split ticket: Mets to win, but Nats to keep it within a run.

Jay Croucher explained why his projection simultaneously shows value on Pittsburgh +1.5 runs at -115. Paul Skenes has worked at least six innings in all four MLB starts and has held opponents to three earned runs or fewer in three of them while fanning 23 batters in 26 innings. With the game total sitting at 7.0 and the Under 4-1 in the Pirates’ last five against National League foes, Croucher expects runs to be at a premium. Los Angeles dropped two straight one-run games to the Cubs this week, reinforcing the likelihood of another close finish. His model spits out a 59% probability that Pittsburgh keeps the margin to one run or wins outright, giving bettors roughly a 6-point edge over the implied probability on the +1.5 run line.

Although both starters own sub-3.00 ERAs, Jay Croucher’s projection makes Over 7.0 the highest-EV total play. He noted that the Dodgers’ offense is heating up—Teoscar Hernandez is slashing .385 with a homer and 5 RBI over his last three games—and that Oneil Cruz just went 6-for-16 (.375) in Anaheim as Pittsburgh’s lineup finally shows signs of life. Croucher also pointed out that Skenes averaged 97.8 mph on his heater in his last start but has surrendered seven barrels in 26 innings, signaling possible HR regression. Yamamoto will be on regular four-day rest after a 101-pitch outing, so L.A. could need 9-12 outs from a bullpen that was used in back-to-back nail-biters at Wrigley. Factoring park-adjusted run environments and neutral weather, his model projects 7.6 runs—enough cushion to clear the listed total.

Jay Croucher said the Dodgers’ moneyline is still playable at -215 because every market factor favors Los Angeles. Rookie import Yoshinobu Yamamoto owns a microscopic 0.93 ERA and just blanked Texas for 7 innings with 10 strikeouts and zero walks. The club has won five straight home games against Pittsburgh and sits 4-1 on the run line this season when they have a rest advantage at Dodger Stadium. Even though Paul Skenes has flashed a 2.87 ERA, the Pittsburgh offense has scored three runs or fewer in three of his four starts and now flies cross-country after a 4-3 loss to the Angels. Croucher pointed to Teoscar Hernandez’s hot bat (5-for-13, HR, 5 RBI in Chicago) and the deeper L.A. bullpen as additional edges that keep the true price closer to -250 in his model, making the current moneyline worth a wager.

Despite the Under cashing in each of Houston’s last three games, Croucher recommended taking Over 8.0 runs. His projection spits out 8.4 expected runs thanks to a shaky Astros starter (Ronel Blanco, 6.48 ERA, five hits and three walks in his last outing) and a Blue Jays lineup that is beginning to click—Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 6‑for‑17 (.353) over his last five games and the club still ranks top‑10 in hard‑hit rate. Croucher believes Bassitt’s ultra‑low ERA is unsustainable (league‑average FIP components) and Minute Maid Park’s short porch in left offers extra homer upside against two fly‑ball prone staffs. With both bullpens having thrown meaningful innings the previous night and warm indoor hitting conditions, he sees enough combined paths for these offenses to push the total past the posted eight.

Croucher said the model shows slight value grabbing Toronto at +1.5 runs, citing Chris Bassitt’s form (2‑0, 0.77 ERA; 10 strikeouts over five shutout innings vs. Atlanta on 4/16) and the club’s recent success in close road games. The Blue Jays have covered the run line in four of their last five away contests, netting backers 1.12 units. He expects Bassitt to work deep enough to neutralize Houston’s surging bats and take pressure off a bullpen that allowed zero runs in its last two appearances before Monday’s loss. On the Houston side, Ronel Blanco has issued three walks in two of his last three starts and managed only one strikeout in St. Louis, giving Toronto a path to keep things tight even if the Astros ultimately prevail.

Jay Croucher said his NBC Sports Bet model makes Houston a -130 favorite yet the market is dealing -114, so he is backing the Astros on the moneyline. He acknowledged Chris Bassitt’s sparkling 0.77 ERA, but noted the underlying matchup tilts toward Houston: the Astros’ offense finally showed signs of life in Monday’s opener when the bottom three hitters combined to go 5‑for‑10 with three RBIs in a 7‑0 win that leveled their record at 11‑11. Toronto’s bullpen was forced to cover four innings in that shutout, potentially leaving them thin behind Bassitt. Meanwhile Ronel Blanco’s 6.48 ERA makes bettors nervous, but Croucher pointed out Houston is 7‑3 in its last ten home games versus right‑handed starters and Minute Maid Park’s friendly dimensions boost their run expectancy. With the Blue Jays just 4‑5 on the road despite recent ATS success, Croucher trusts the Astros’ improving lineup and home‑field advantage to overcome Bassitt’s early‑season form.

Jay Croucher leaned toward Chicago +1.5 runs at -110 despite backing Boston on the moneyline, arguing the matchup sets up for a one‑run game far more often than the market suggests. Cannon’s last start was his best yet (4.1 scoreless vs Oakland), and the right‑hander’s 54% ground‑ball rate plays well at Fenway, muting big innings. Walker Buehler is still on a 90‑pitch cap after 2024 Tommy John rehab and has completed six frames only once, forcing Alex Cora to trust a middle‑relief group with a collective 4.71 ERA. Boston’s offense is without Trevor Story and ranks just 19th in wRC+ against righties, while Chicago’s lineup finally showed signs of life yesterday with eight runs and a homer from Vaughn. Croucher added that nine of Boston’s 12 wins have come by exactly one run, so grabbing the extra cushion on the Sox of the South is a profitable angle if Boston wins a tight contest or Cannon keeps them in front.

Despite backing New York on the moneyline, Jay Croucher noted the model still shows value grabbing Cleveland at +1.5 runs because the projected score differential is almost exactly one run. Cleveland’s offense just swept Pittsburgh and walked off the Pirates on a Kyle Manzardo sacrifice fly, giving the Guardians enough offensive floor to stay inside the spread even if they lose. Schmidt has yet to pitch into the 6th in either of his last two outings, giving Cleveland a chance to chip away against the middle of the Yankee bullpen. That combination produced a lean to Guardians +1.5 at -150 or better.

Jay Croucher said the NBC Sports projection model makes the Yankees a small favorite worth laying the current -121 price. He pointed to three key angles that give New York the edge: 1) recent form – the Yankees have taken three of four from Tampa Bay and have won four straight against AL Central opponents; 2) matchup history – Cleveland has failed to cover the run line in six of the last seven meetings with New York; 3) pitching – while Clarke Schmidt owns a 4.77 ERA, his last start featured only four hits over 5.2 innings and his underlying FIP is a full run lower, whereas Guardians rookie Gavin Williams is sitting at a 4.58 ERA with five earned runs allowed his last time out. With New York’s bullpen rested after Max Fried’s 7.2‑inning gem Sunday, Croucher graded the Yankees moneyline as the model’s strongest play.

Jay Croucher said the NBC Sports projection model shows actionable value on Baltimore at -157. The model folds in park factors at Camden Yards, the Reds’ league‑worst bullpen ERA over the last week (7.88 after a 10‑inning loss in Seattle on Thursday) and Cincinnati’s 4–3 UNDER record on the road, which hints at suppressed run support behind Andrew Abbott. Meanwhile Baltimore’s lineup is heating up – Gunnar Henderson is 7‑for‑17 his last four games – and Cade Povich has allowed only two earned runs in each of his first two starts. With the Orioles coming off a day of rest after their first series win of the season, Croucher sees enough micro (travel spot, bullpen fatigue) and macro (model power rating) angles to justify laying the short price on the O’s moneyline.

Jay Croucher said the model shows clear value on the Red Sox moneyline at Fenway. His reasoning: Chicago has dropped four straight and produced only four total runs during that span, while Boston enters at .500 after taking two of three from Tampa and enjoyed a full rest day Thursday. Croucher highlighted Richard Fitts’ most recent start in Chicago (5 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 5 K, 1 BB) and noted that Fenway’s park factor favors Boston’s left‑heavy lineup against the soft‑tossing Martin Perez. With the White Sox failing to cover the run line in four consecutive games, Croucher trusts the Red Sox bats to scrape out enough support for Fitts and the Boston bullpen that owns a 3.21 ERA at home this year.

Although the model prefers Boston straight up, Jay Croucher noted that Chicago at +1.5 runs still grades out as a small edge because of Martin Perez’s ability to keep games tight. The veteran lefty owns a 1.59 ERA through two starts and limited Boston to 2 earned over 4.2 innings last Saturday despite four free passes. Boston’s lineup has been merely league‑average against southpaws (101 wRC+) and Fenway’s spacious left‑center gap suppresses power from right‑handed bats, helping Perez’s pitch‑to‑contact style. With a projected 4.6‑4.3 final score, Croucher took the White Sox on the run line at +1.5 laying roughly ‑110, expecting Perez to grind five innings and hand it to a bullpen that kept Boston scoreless over the final four frames in last week’s meeting.

Jay Croucher said his NBC Sports model shows value on the Red Sox moneyline Friday at Fenway. Boston is rested after an off‑day and has won four of its last six, including a series win over Tampa. Rookie right‑hander Richard Fitts held this very White Sox lineup scoreless over 5 innings in Chicago six days ago and carries a solid 3.18 ERA. Chicago, meanwhile, has dropped four straight, scoring just four combined runs during that span and getting shut out 8‑0 by Oakland yesterday. The Sox have failed to cover the run line in those four losses and their offense owns a .593 OPS versus right‑handed pitching, second‑worst in baseball. With the model making Boston a ‑175 favorite against a market number hovering around ‑150, Croucher is betting the Red Sox moneyline.

Jay Croucher and the NBC Sports Bet team recommended betting on the Los Angeles Dodgers moneyline in their matchup against the Nationals on Tuesday, citing the model projection as strong support despite recent team struggles. Although the Dodgers have dropped two consecutive games and lost three of their last four, the mismatch in starting pitching provides confidence—Dodgers pitcher Justin Wrobleski is making his season debut but has potential for strong performance, while Nationals starter Brad Lord struggled significantly in his lone appearance this year, allowing one run in one inning against Toronto. Additionally, despite the Dodgers' two-game skid, they remain significant favorites (-175 moneyline) highlighting oddsmakers' continued confidence in them bouncing back.