Jeff Chalkx enthusiastically backed Diego Lopes as a solid betting underdog pick in his title bout against Alexander Volkanovski. His central argument hinges on Volkanovski's recent sharp decline, evidenced clearly by back-to-back knockout losses combined with his rapidly advancing age (turning 37). Chalkx sees Volkanovski as significantly diminished and particularly vulnerable to knockouts, making Lopes' powerful striking and recent finishing ability—two knockouts in his last four UFC bouts, notably over respected fighters Pat Sabatini and Sodiq Yusuff—even more promising. Chalkx strongly advises bettors to leverage Lopes' knockout prop at +335 odds rather than general moneyline, emphasizing Lopes' clearest and strongest path to victory is via knockout rather than accumulating decisions or submissions, which he perceives as unlikely.

Jeff Chalkx strongly supports Paddy Pimblett as the pick against Michael Chandler at UFC 314, basing his reasoning around Pimblett's exceptional durability, grappling skills, youth, and Chandler's vulnerabilities. Pimblett, undefeated in the UFC, has exhibited a granite chin, never being knocked out, even while facing powerful strikers. Chalkx points out Chandler can be dangerous early due to still-existing explosive knockout power, but Pimblett's proven toughness should enable him to survive the early threat. Once Chandler inevitably fades or engages in grappling, Pimblett has notable advantages—his grappling and ground game are more technical and dangerous than Chandler's. Chalkx specifically cited Chandler's vulnerability to grappling exchanges—even noting Chandler surrendering advantageous positions previously against Charles Oliveira. Additionally, Pimblett is substantially younger and fresher, devoid of Chandler's significant fight mileage and declining form, making Pimblett an excellent betting selection at current odds.

Jeff Chalkx selected Sean Woodson over Dan Ige primarily due to Woodson's enormous physical advantages in both height (seven inches) and reach (seven inches). Chalkx underscored that despite Dan Ige's extensive UFC experience and proven toughness (never been finished), Woodson's sharp distance management and accurate striking, combined with his significant physical edge, would allow him to routinely pick Ige apart at range. Further context included Woodson's strong recent performances as well as his effective utilization of reach advantages in previous UFC bouts. The substantial length discrepancy between the two fighters informed Chalkx's conclusion to confidently back Woodson at the current betting line (-162).

Jeff Chalkx likes Michal Oleksiejczuk in the matchup with Sedriques Dumas, citing Oleksiejczuk's significantly superior striking and knockout power. Chalkx noted that Dumas will likely engage in prolonged striking exchanges, failing to employ strategic grappling, which is typically Oleksiejczuk's vulnerable area. Oleksiejczuk has competed against significantly higher-level opponents in his recent defeats, including strong competition such as Shara Bullet, Kevin Holland, and Caio Borralho, making his record appear deceptively weak. In contrast, Dumas has no noteworthy victories beyond a controversial decision against Cody Brundage. Chalkx concluded that Dumas's tendency to aggressively engage in striking exchanges places him at considerable risk of knockout, prompting him to confidently choose Oleksiejczuk as a betting pick.

Jeff Chalkx confidently recommended Yair Rodriguez as a strong play against Patricio 'Pitbull' Freire at UFC 314, highlighting multiple critical advantages. Rodriguez is significantly larger, holding a 6-inch advantage in both height and reach, and five years younger than Freire. Chalkx emphasized that Rodriguez boasts superior striking, creativity, and athleticism, making Freire's longtime advantages—primarily speed and aggressiveness—largely irrelevant in this context. Freire, noted as past his physical prime at nearly 38 and visibly slower, doesn't match up well with Rodriguez's fast, powerful leg kicks and expansive striking skillset. Further, while Pitbull has shown versatility, Rodriguez's underrated submission threat, notably injuring Brian Ortega in ground exchanges, makes Freire's takedown attempts even riskier. Rodriguez also enters fresher than freire due to infrequent competition. Chalkx concluded that at this stage in their respective careers, Rodriguez leads Freire significantly in almost every meaningful dimension of MMA, establishing Rodriguez as a safe and logical betting choice.

Jeff Chalkx confidently picked Dominick Reyes as an underdog in his bout against Nikita Krylov at UFC 314. Despite Reyes previously suffering knockout losses, Chalkx argued Krylov lacks significant punching power, having managed only one knockout victory (the unconventional head kick finish of Alexander Gustafsson) over seven years. Chalkx highlighted Reyes' elite takedown defense, exemplified by stopping seven of nine takedowns from Jon Jones in a prior title fight, positioning him well against Krylov's grappling-heavy attack. Additionally, Krylov's tendency to recklessly engage and leave openings could play directly into Reyes' powerful counter-striking style. Chalkx sees Reyes' takedown defense and striking power as key factors in making him a valuable betting underdog play at the current price (+160).